The effect of preferential sampling on sampling variance

We examine some variations of standard probability designs that preferentially sample sites based on how easy they are to access. Preferential sampling designs deliver unbiased estimates of mean and sampling variance and will ease the burden of data collection but at what cost to our design efficiency? Preferential sampling has the potential to either increase or decrease sampling variance depending on the application. We carry out a simulation study to gauge what effect it will have when sampling Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) values in a large agricultural region in south-eastern Australia. Preferential sampling in this region can reduce the distance to travel by up to 16%. Our study is based on a dataset of predicted SOC values produced from a datamining exercise. We consider three designs and two ways to determine ease of access. The overall conclusion is that sampling performance deteriorates as the strength of preferential sampling increases, due to the fact the regions of high SOC are harder to access. So our designs are inadvertently targeting regions of low SOC value. The good news, however, is that Generalised Random Tessellation Stratification (GRTS) sampling designs are not as badly affected as others and GRTS remains an efficient design compared to competitors.

BIM for sustainable whole-of-life transport infrastructure asset management

The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) showed that, in 2004, owners and operations managers bore two thirds of the total industry cost burden from inadequate interoperability in construction projects from inception to operation, amounting to USD10.6 billion. Building Information Modelling (BIM) and similar tools were identified by Engineers Australia in 2005 as potential instruments to significantly reduce this sum, which in Australia could amount to total industry-wide cost burden of AUD12 billion. Public sector road authorities in Australia have a key responsibility in driving initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the construction and operations of transport infrastructure. However, as previous research has shown the Environmental Impact Assessment process, typically used for project approvals and permitting based on project designs available at the consent stage, lacks Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) that include long-term impact factors and transfer of information throughout the project life cycle. In the building construction industry, BIM is widely used to model sustainability KPIs such as energy consumption, and integrated with facility management systems. This paper proposes that a similar use of BIM in early design phases of transport infrastructure could provide: (i) productivity gains through improved interoperability and documentation; (ii) the opportunity to carry out detailed cost-benefit analyses leading to significant operational cost savings; (iii) coordinated planning of street and highway lighting with other energy and environmental considerations; iv) measurable KPIs that include long-term impact factors which are transferable throughout the project life cycle; and (v) the opportunity for integrating design documentation with sustainability whole-of-life targets.

The validity and reliability of the Parent Fever Management Scale: A study from Palestine

Background Parental fever phobia and overuse of antipyretics to control fever is increasing. Little is known about childhood fever management among Arab parents. No scales to measure parents’ fever management practices in Palestine are available. Aims The aims of this study were to translate and examine the psychometric properties of the Arabic version of the Parent Fever Management Scale (PFMS). Methods A standard “forward–backward” procedure was used to translate PFMS into Arabic language. It was then validated on a convenience sample of 402 parents between July and October 2012. Descriptive statistics were used, and instrument reliability was assessed for internal consistency using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. Validity was confirmed using convergent and known group validation. Results Applying the recommended scoring method, the median (interquartile range) score of the PFMS was 26 (23-30). Acceptable internal consistency was found (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.733) and the test–retest reliability value was 0.92 (P < 0.001). The chi-squared (χ2) test showed a significant relationship between PFMS groups and frequent daily administration of antipyretic groups (χ2 = 52.86; P < 0.001). The PFMS sensitivity and specificity were 77.67% and 57.75%, respectively. The positive and negative predictive values were 67.89% and 32.11%, respectively. Conclusions The findings of this validation study indicate that the Arabic version of the PFMS is a reliable and valid measure which can be used as a useful tool for health professionals to identify parents’ fever management practices and thus provide targeted education to reduce the unnecessary burden of care they place on themselves when concerned for a febrile child.

A multicenter study on chronic cough in children : burden and etiologies based on a standardized management pathway

Background While the burden of chronic cough in children has been documented, etiologic factors across multiple settings and age have not been described. In children with chronic cough, we aimed (1) to evaluate the burden and etiologies using a standard management pathway in various settings, and (2) to determine the influence of age and setting on disease burden and etiologies and etiology on disease burden. We hypothesized that the etiology, but not the burden, of chronic cough in children is dependent on the clinical setting and age. Methods From five major hospitals and three rural-remote clinics, 346 children (mean age 4.5 years) newly referred with chronic cough (> 4 weeks) were prospectively managed in accordance with an evidence-based cough algorithm. We used a priori definitions, timeframes, and validated outcome measures (parent-proxy cough-specific quality of life [PC-QOL], a generic QOL [pediatric quality of life (PedsQL)], and cough diary). Results The burden of chronic cough (PC-QOL, cough duration) significantly differed between settings (P = .014, 0.021, respectively), but was not influenced by age or etiology. PC-QOL and PedsQL did not correlate with age. The frequency of etiologies was significantly different in dissimilar settings (P = .0001); 17.6% of children had a serious underlying diagnosis (bronchiectasis, aspiration, cystic fibrosis). Except for protracted bacterial bronchitis, the frequency of other common diagnoses (asthma, bronchiectasis, resolved without specific-diagnosis) was similar across age categories. Conclusions The high burden of cough is independent of children’s age and etiology but dependent on clinical setting. Irrespective of setting and age, children with chronic cough should be carefully evaluated and child-specific evidence-based algorithms used.

Intravitreal drug delivery in retinal disease : are we out of our depth?

Introduction With the ever-increasing global burden of retinal disease, there is an urgent need to vastly improve formulation strategies that enhance posterior eye delivery of therapeutics. Despite intravitreal administration having demonstrated notable superiority over other routes in enhancing retinal drug availability, there still exist various significant physical/biochemical barriers preventing optimal drug delivery into the retina. A further complication lies with an inability to reliably translate laboratory-based retinal models into a clinical setting. Several formulation approaches have recently been evaluated to improve intravitreal therapeutic outcomes, and our aim in this review is to highlight strategies that hold the most promise. Areas covered We discuss the complex barriers faced by the intravitreal route and examine how formulation strategies including implants, nanoparticulate carriers, viral vectors and sonotherapy have been utilized to attain both sustained delivery and enhanced penetration through to the retina. We conclude by highlighting the advances and limitations of current in vitro, ex vivo and in vivo retinal models in use by researchers globally. Expert opinion Various nanoparticle compositions have demonstrated the ability to overcome the retinal barriers successfully; however, their utility is limited to the laboratory setting. Optimization of these formulations and the development of more robust experimental retinal models are necessary to translate success in the laboratory into clinically efficacious outcomes.

Characteristics of low-speed vehicle run-over events in children : an 11-year review

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the characteristics associated with fatal and non-fatal low-speed vehicle run-over (LSVRO) events in relation to person, incident and injury characteristics, in order to identify appropriate points for intervention and injury prevention. Methods: Data on all known LSVRO events in Queensland, Australia, over 11 calendar years (1999–2009) were extracted from five different databases representing the continuum of care ( prehospital to fatality) and manually linked. Descriptive and multivariate analyses were used to analyse the sample characteristics in relation to demographics, health service usage, outcomes, incident characteristics, and injury characteristics. Results: Of the 1641 LSVRO incidents, 98.4% (n=1615) were non-fatal, and 1.6% were fatal (n=26). Over half the children required admission to hospital (56%, n=921); mean length of stay was 3.4 days. Younger children aged 0–4 years were more frequently injured, and experienced more serious injuries with worse outcomes. Patterns of injury (injury type and severity), injury characteristics (eg, time of injury, vehicle type, driver of vehicle, incident location), and demographic characteristics (such as socioeconomic status, indigenous status, remoteness), varied according to age group. Almost half (45.6%; n=737) the events occurred outside major cities, and approximately 10% of events involved indigenous children. Parents were most commonly the vehicle drivers in fatal incidents. While larger vehicles such as four-wheel drives (4WD) were most frequently involved in LSVRO events resulting in fatalities, cars were most frequently involved in non-fatal events. Conclusions: This is the first study, to the authors’ knowledge, to analyse the characteristics of fatal and non-fatal LSVRO events in children aged 0–15 years on a state-wide basis. Characteristics of LSVRO events varied with age, thus age-specific interventions are required. Children living outside major cities, and indigenous children, were over-represented in these data. Further research is required to identify the burden of injury in these groups.

Progress towards understanding the genetics of posttraumatic stress disorder

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a complex syndrome that occurs following exposure to a potentially life threatening traumatic event. This review summarises the literature on the genetics of PTSD including gene–environment interactions (GxE), epigenetics and genetics of treatment response. Numerous genes have been shown to be associated with PTSD using candidate gene approaches. Genome-wide association studies have been limited due to the large sample size required to reach statistical power. Studies have shown that GxE interactions are important for PTSD susceptibility. Epigenetics plays an important role in PTSD susceptibility and some of the most promising studies show stress and child abuse trigger epigenetic changes. Much of the molecular genetics of PTSD remains to be elucidated. However, it is clear that identifying genetic markers and environmental triggers has the potential to advance early PTSD diagnosis and therapeutic interventions and ultimately ease the personal and financial burden of this debilitating disorder.

Prevalence of active foot disease and foot disease risk factors in a subacute inpatient rehabilitation facility: a cross-sectional prevalence study

Background Australian subacute inpatient rehabilitation facilities face significant challenges from the ageing population and the increasing burden of chronic disease. Foot disease complications are a negative consequence of many chronic diseases. With the rapid expansion of subacute rehabilitation inpatient services, it seems imperative to investigate the prevalence of foot disease and foot disease risk factors in this population. The primary aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine the prevalence of active foot disease and foot disease risk factors in a subacute inpatient rehabilitation facility. Methods Eligible participants were all adults admitted at least overnight into a large Australian subacute inpatient rehabilitation facility over two different four week periods. Consenting participants underwent a short non-invasive foot examination by a podiatrist utilising the validated Queensland Health High Risk Foot Form to collect data on age, sex, medical co-morbidity history, foot disease risk factor history and clinically diagnosed foot disease complications and foot disease risk factors. Descriptive statistics were used to determine the prevalence of clinically diagnosed foot disease complications, foot disease risk factors and groups of foot disease risk factors. Logistic regression analyses were used to investigate any associations between defined explanatory variables and appropriate foot disease outcome variables. Results Overall, 85 (88%) of 97 people admitted to the facility during the study periods consented; mean age 80 (±9) years and 71% were female. The prevalence (95% confidence interval) of participants with active foot disease was 11.8% (6.3 – 20.5), 32.9% (23.9 – 43.5) had multiple foot disease risk factors, and overall, 56.5% (45.9 – 66.5) had at least one foot disease risk factor. A self-reported history of peripheral neuropathy diagnosis was independently associated with having multiple foot disease risk factors (OR 13.504, p = 0.001). Conclusion This study highlights the potential significance of the burden of foot disease in subacute inpatient rehabilitation facilities. One in eight subacute inpatients were admitted with active foot disease and one in two with at least one foot disease risk factor in this study. It is recommended that further multi-site studies and management guidelines are required to address the foot disease burden in subacute inpatient rehabilitation facilities. Keywords: Subacute; Inpatient; Foot; Complication; Prevalence

Meta-analysis of prevalence

Meta-analysis is a method to obtain a weighted average of results from various studies. In addition to pooling effect sizes, meta-analysis can also be used to estimate disease frequencies, such as incidence and prevalence. In this article we present methods for the meta-analysis of prevalence. We discuss the logit and double arcsine transformations to stabilise the variance. We note the special situation of multiple category prevalence, and propose solutions to the problems that arise. We describe the implementation of these methods in the MetaXL software, and present a simulation study and the example of multiple sclerosis from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 project. We conclude that the double arcsine transformation is preferred over the logit, and that the MetaXL implementation of multiple category prevalence is an improvement in the methodology of the meta-analysis of prevalence.

Review of the long-term disability associated with hip fractures

Objectives To determine the proportion of hip fracture patients who experience long-term disability and to re-estimate the resulting burden of disease associated with hip fractures in Australia in 2003. Methods A literature review of the functional outcome following a hip fracture (keywords: morbidity, treatment outcome, disability, quality of life, recovery of function, hip fractures, and femoral neck fractures) was carried out using PubMed and Ovid MEDLINE. Results A range of scales and outcome measures are used to evaluate recovery following a hip fracture. Based on the available evidence on restrictions in activities of daily living, 29% of hip fracture cases in the elderly do not reach their pre-fracture levels 1 year post-fracture. Those who do recover tend to reach their pre-fracture levels of functioning at around 6 months. These new assumptions result in 8251 years lived with disability for hip fractures in Australia in 2003, a 4.5-fold increase compared with the previous calculation based on Global Burden of Disease assumptions that only 5% of hip fractures lead to long-term disability and that the duration of short-term disability is just 51 days. Conclusions The original assumptions used in burden of disease studies grossly underestimate the long-term disability from hip fractures. The long-term consequences of other injuries may similarly have been underestimated and need to be re-examined. This has important implications for modelling the cost-effectiveness of preventive interventions where disability-adjusted life years are used as a measure of health outcome.

Global variation in the prevalence and incidence of major depressive disorder : a systematic review of the epidemiological literature

Background Summarizing the epidemiology of major depressive disorder (MDD) at a global level is complicated by significant heterogeneity in the data. The aim of this study is to present a global summary of the prevalence and incidence of MDD, accounting for sources of bias, and dealing with heterogeneity. Findings are informing MDD burden quantification in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 Study. Method A systematic review of prevalence and incidence of MDD was undertaken. Electronic databases Medline, PsycINFO and EMBASE were searched. Community-representative studies adhering to suitable diagnostic nomenclature were included. A meta-regression was conducted to explore sources of heterogeneity in prevalence and guide the stratification of data in a meta-analysis. Results The literature search identified 116 prevalence and four incidence studies. Prevalence period, sex, year of study, depression subtype, survey instrument, age and region were significant determinants of prevalence, explaining 57.7% of the variability between studies. The global point prevalence of MDD, adjusting for methodological differences, was 4.7% (4.4–5.0%). The pooled annual incidence was 3.0% (2.4–3.8%), clearly at odds with the pooled prevalence estimates and the previously reported average duration of 30 weeks for an episode of MDD. Conclusions Our findings provide a comprehensive and up-to-date profile of the prevalence of MDD globally. Region and study methodology influenced the prevalence of MDD. This needs to be considered in the GBD 2010 study and in investigations into the ecological determinants of MDD. Good-quality estimates from low-/middle-income countries were sparse. More accurate data on incidence are also required.

What is the scale of intimate partner homicide?

Intimate partner homicides are fatal violent attacks perpetrated by intimate partners, and are often the extreme and unplanned consequence of abusive relationships. Although recognised as an important risk factor for death and disability among women, previous country-level assessments and the recent Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010)4 have not considered the extent of intimate partner violence among male victims...

The long-term health consequences of child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Child sexual abuse is considered a modifiable risk factor for mental disorders across the life course. However the long-term consequences of other forms of child maltreatment have not yet been systematically examined. The aim of this study was to summarise the evidence relating to the possible relationship between child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect, and subsequent mental and physical health outcomes. Methods and Findings A systematic review was conducted using the Medline, EMBASE, and PsycINFO electronic databases up to 26 June 2012. Published cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies that examined non-sexual child maltreatment as a risk factor for loss of health were included. All meta-analyses were based on quality-effects models. Out of 285 articles assessed for eligibility, 124 studies satisfied the pre-determined inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. Statistically significant associations were observed between physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect and depressive disorders (physical abuse [odds ratio (OR) = 1.54; 95% CI 1.16–2.04], emotional abuse [OR = 3.06; 95% CI 2.43–3.85], and neglect [OR = 2.11; 95% CI 1.61–2.77]); drug use (physical abuse [OR = 1.92; 95% CI 1.67–2.20], emotional abuse [OR = 1.41; 95% CI 1.11–1.79], and neglect [OR = 1.36; 95% CI 1.21–1.54]); suicide attempts (physical abuse [OR = 3.40; 95% CI 2.17–5.32], emotional abuse [OR = 3.37; 95% CI 2.44–4.67], and neglect [OR = 1.95; 95% CI 1.13–3.37]); and sexually transmitted infections and risky sexual behaviour (physical abuse [OR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.50–2.10], emotional abuse [OR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.49–2.04], and neglect [OR = 1.57; 95% CI 1.39–1.78]). Evidence for causality was assessed using Bradford Hill criteria. While suggestive evidence exists for a relationship between maltreatment and chronic diseases and lifestyle risk factors, more research is required to confirm these relationships. Conclusions This overview of the evidence suggests a causal relationship between non-sexual child maltreatment and a range of mental disorders, drug use, suicide attempts, sexually transmitted infections, and risky sexual behaviour. All forms of child maltreatment should be considered important risks to health with a sizeable impact on major contributors to the burden of disease in all parts of the world. The awareness of the serious long-term consequences of child maltreatment should encourage better identification of those at risk and the development of effective interventions to protect children from violence.

The global burden attributable to low bone mineral density

Introduction The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 estimated the worldwide health burden of 291 diseases and injuries and 67 risk factors by calculating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Osteoporosis was not considered as a disease, and bone mineral density (BMD) was analysed as a risk factor for fractures, which formed part of the health burden due to falls. Objectives To calculate (1) the global distribution of BMD, (2) its population attributable fraction (PAF) for fractures and subsequently for falls, and (3) the number of DALYs due to BMD. Methods A systematic review was performed seeking population-based studies in which BMD was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at the femoral neck in people aged 50 years and over. Age- and sex-specific mean ± SD BMD values (g/cm2) were extracted from eligible studies. Comparative risk assessment methodology was used to calculate PAFs of BMD for fractures. The theoretical minimum risk exposure distribution was estimated as the age- and sex-specific 90th centile from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). Relative risks of fractures were obtained from a previous meta-analysis. Hospital data were used to calculate the fraction of the health burden of falls that was due to fractures. Results Global deaths and DALYs attributable to low BMD increased from 103 000 and 3 125 000 in 1990 to 188 000 and 5 216 000 in 2010, respectively. The percentage of low BMD in the total global burden almost doubled from 1990 (0.12%) to 2010 (0.21%). Around one-third of falls-related deaths were attributable to low BMD. Conclusions Low BMD is responsible for a growing global health burden, only partially representative of the real burden of osteoporosis.

The use of prescribed drugs for common chronic conditions in South Africa in 1998

Purpose To determine the prescribed drug-utilisation pattern for six common chronic conditions in adult South Africans in a cross-sectional survey. Methods 13 826 randomly selected participants, 15 years and older, were surveyed by trained fieldworkers at their homes in 1998. Questionnaires included socio-demographic, chronic-disease and drug-use data. The prescribed drugs were recorded from participants' medication containers. The Anatomical Therapeutic Classification (ATC) code of the drugs for tuberculosis (TB), diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, other atherosclerosis-related conditions, such as heart conditions or cerebrovascular accidents (CVA), and asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), was recorded. The use of logistic regression analyses identified the determinants of those patients who used prescription medication for these six conditions. Results 18.4% of the women and 12.5% of the men used drugs for the six chronic conditions. Men used drugs most frequently for hypertension (50.9%) and asthma or chronic bronchitis (24.3%), while in women it was for hypertension (59.9%) and diabetes (17.5%). The logistic regression analyses showed that women, wealthier and older people, and those with medical insurance used these chronic-disease drugs more frequently compared to men, younger or poor people, or those without medical insurance. The African population group used these drugs less frequently than any other ethnic group. The inappropriate use of methyldopa was found for 14.8% of all antihypertensive drugs, while very few people used aspirin. Conclusions The methodology of this study provides a means of ascertaining the chronic-disease drug-utilisation pattern in national health surveys. The pattern described, suggests an inequitable use of chronic-disease drugs and inadequate use of some effective drugs to control the burden of chronic diseases in South Africa. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.