Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

Measurement of the first neutron diffraction peak of D2O flowing in a 2 mm diameter aluminium tube as a function of temperature

A pilot experiment was performed using the WOMBAT powder diffraction instrument at ANSTO in which the first neutron diffraction peak (Q0) was measured for D2O flowing in a 2 mm internal diameter aluminium tube. Measurements of Q0 were made at -9, 4.3, 6.9, 12, 18.2 and 21.5 °C. The D2O was circulated using a siphon with water in the lower reservoir returned to the upper reservoir using a small pump. This enabled stable flow to be maintained for several hours. For example, if the pump flow increased slightly, the upper reservoir level rose, increasing the siphon flow until it matched the return flow. A neutron wavelength of 2.4 Å was used and data integrated over 60 minutes for each temperature. A jet of nitrogen from a liquid N2 Dewar was directed over the aluminium tube to vary water temperature. After collection of the data, the d spacing of the aluminium peaks was used to calculate the temperature of the aluminium within the neutron beam and therefore was considered to be an accurate measure of water temperature within the beam. Sigmaplot version 12.3 was used to fit a Weibull five parameter peak fit to the first neutron diffraction peak. The values of Q0 obtained in this experiment showed an increase with temperature consistent with data in the literature [1] but were consistently higher than published values for bulk D20. For example at 21.5 °C we obtained a value of 2.008 Å-1 for Q0 compared to a literature value of 1.988 Å-1 for bulk D2O at 20 °C, a difference of 1%. Further experiments are required to see if this difference is real or artifactual.

The first x-ray diffraction peak of water as a function of temperature in the range 4 – 63 °C

X-ray diffraction structure functions for water flowing in a 1.5 mm diameter siphon in the temperature range 4 – 63 °C were obtained using a 20 keV beam at the Australian Synchrotron. These functions were compared with structure functions obtained at the Advanced Light Source for a 0.5 mm thick sample of water in the temperature range 1 – 77 °C irradiated with an 11 keV beam. The two sets of structure functions are similar, but there are subtle differences in the shape and relative position of the two functions suggesting a possible differences between the structure of bulk and siphon water. In addition, the first structural peak (Q0) for water in a siphon, showed evidence of a step-wise increase in Q0 with increasing temperature rather than a smoothly varying increase. More experiments are required to investigate this apparent difference.

The effect of using different regions of interest on local and mean skin temperature

The dynamic nature of tissue temperature and the subcutaneous properties, such as blood flow, fatness, and metabolic rate, leads to variation in local skin temperature. Therefore, we investigated the effects of using multiple regions of interest when calculating weighted mean skin temperature from four local sites. Twenty-six healthy males completed a single trial in a thermonetural laboratory (mean ± SD): 24.0 (1.2) °C; 56 (8%) relative humidity; < 0.1 m/s air speed). Mean skin temperature was calculated from four local sites (neck, scapula, hand and shin) in accordance with International Standards using digital infrared thermography. A 50 x 50 mm square, defined by strips of aluminium tape, created six unique regions of interest, top left quadrant, top right quadrant, bottom left quadrant, bottom right quadrant, centre quadrant and the entire region of interest, at each of the local sites. The largest potential error in weighted mean skin temperature was calculated using a combination of a) the coolest and b) the warmest regions of interest at each of the local sites. Significant differences between the six regions interest were observed at the neck (P < 0.01), scapula (P < 0.001) and shin (P < 0.05); but not at the hand (P = 0.482). The largest difference (± SEM) at each site was as follows: neck 0.2 (0.1) °C; scapula 0.2 (0.0) °C; shin 0.1 (0.0) °C and hand 0.1 (0.1) °C. The largest potential error (mean ± SD) in weighted mean skin temperature was 0.4 (0.1) °C (P < 0.001) and the associated 95% limits of agreement for these differences was 0.2 to 0.5 °C. Although we observed differences in local and mean skin temperature based on the region of interest employed, these differences were minimal and are not considered physiologically meaningful.

Conversion of n-type CuTCNQ into p-type nitrogen-doped CuO and the implication for room temperature gas sensing

Sensors to detect toxic and harmful gases are usually based on metal oxides that are operated at elevated temperature. However, enabling gas detection at room temperature (RT) is a significant ongoing challenge. Here, we address this issue by demonstrating that microrods of semiconducting CuTCNQ (TCNQ=7,7,8,8-tetracyanoquinodimethane) with nanostructured features can be employed as conductometric gas sensors operating at 50°C for detection of oxidizing and reducing gases such as NO2 and NH3. The sensor is evaluated at RT and up to 200°C. It was found that CuTCNQ is transformed into a N-doped CuO material with p-type conductivity when annealed at the maximum temperature. This is the first time that such a transformation, from a semiconducting charge transfer material into a N-doped metal oxide is detected. It is shown here that both the surface chemistry and the type of majority charge carrier within the sensing layer is critically important for the type of response towards oxidizing and reducing gases. A detailed physical description of NO2 and NH3 sensing mechanism at CuTCNQ and N-doped CuO is provided to explain the difference in the response. For the N-doped CuO sensor, a detection limit of 1 ppm for NO2 and 10 ppm for NH3 are achieved.

Identification of bacterial community composition in freshwater aquaculture system farming of Litopenaeus vannamei reveals distinct temperature-driven patterns

Change in temperature is often a major environmental factor in triggering waterborne disease outbreaks. Previous research has revealed temporal and spatial patterns of bacterial population in several aquatic ecosystems. To date, very little information is available on aquaculture environment. Here, we assessed environmental temperature effects on bacterial community composition in freshwater aquaculture system farming of Litopenaeus vannamei (FASFL). Water samples were collected over a one-year period, and aquatic bacteria were characterized by polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE) and 16S rDNA pyrosequencing. Resulting DGGE fingerprints revealed a specific and dynamic bacterial population structure with considerable variation over the seasonal change, suggesting that environmental temperature was a key driver of bacterial population in the FASFL. Pyrosequencing data further demonstrated substantial difference in bacterial community composition between the water at higher (WHT) and at lower (WLT) temperatures in the FASFL. Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes were the highest abundant phyla in the FASFL, however, a large number of unclassified bacteria contributed the most to the observed variation in phylogenetic diversity. The WHT harbored remarkably higher diversity and richness in bacterial composition at genus and species levels when compared to the WLT. Some potential pathogenenic species were identified in both WHT and WLT, providing data in support of aquatic animal health management in the aquaculture industry.

Impact of diurnal temperature range on human health: a systematic review

Increasing epidemiological studies have shown that a rapid temperature change within 1 day is an independent risk factor for human health. This paper aimed to systematically review the epidemiological evidence on the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and human health and to propose future research directions. A literature search was conducted in October 2013 using the databases including PubMed, ScienceDirect, and EBSCO. Empirical studies regarding the relationship between DTR and mortality and morbidity were included. Twenty-five relevant studies were identified, among which, 11 investigated the relationship between DTR and mortality and 14 examined the impact of DTR on morbidity. The majority of existing studies reported that DTR was significantly associated with mortality and morbidity, particularly for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Notably, compared with adults, the elderly and children were more vulnerable to DTR effects. However, there were some inconsistencies regarding the susceptible groups, lag time, and threshold of DTR. The impact of DTR on human health may be confounded or modified by season, socioeconomic, and educational status. Further research is needed to further confirm the adverse effects of DTR in different geographical locations; examine the effects of DTR on the health of children aged one or under; explore extreme DTR effects on human health; analyze the difference of DTR effects on human health in different locations and the modified effects of potential confounding factors; and develop detailed preventive measures against large DTR, particularly for susceptible groups

Time-temperature histories of spherical food products during bulk forced-air precooling

A general mathematical model for forced air precooling of spherical food products in bulk is developed. The food products are arranged inline to form a rectangular parallelepiped. Chilled air is blown along the height of the package. The governing equations for the transient two-dimensional conduction with internal heat generation in the product, simultaneous heat and mass transfer at the product-air interface and one-dimensional transient energy and species conservation equations for the moist air are solved numerically using finite difference methods. Results are presented in the form of time-temperature histories. Experiments are conducted with model foods in a laboratory scale air precooling tunnel. The agreement between the theoretical and experimental results is found to be good. In general, a single product analysis fails to predict the precooling characteristics of bulk loads of food products. In the range of values investigated, the respiration heat is found to have a negligible effect.

The influence of temperature on the foaming of milk

The effect of temperature (5-85 °C) on the foaming properties of cows' milk was investigated. The foaming properties of milk as a function of temperature varied considerably depending on fat content and the processing conditions used in manufacture. Skim milk foams were most stable when formed at 45 °C. Milk fat had a detrimental effect on foam formation and stability of whole milk especially in the temperature range 15-45 °C. The detrimental effects of milk fat on foaming properties were reduced by homogenization and ultra-high-temperature (UHT) treatment. No correlation was observed between foam formation and surface tension of whole milk in the temperature range 15-45 °C. There was a pronounced difference in the bubble size distributions of whole milk and skim milk especially at half-life of the foams. Bubbles in whole milk foams were smaller and showed a higher degree of rupture as a result of coalescence than those in skim milk foams.

Perception of surface brightness

The human visual system has adapted to function in different lighting environments and responds to contrast instead of the amount of light as such. On the one hand, this ensures constancy of perception, for example, white paper looks white both in bright sunlight and in dim moonlight, because contrast is invariant to changes in overall light level. On the other hand, the brightness of the surfaces has to be reconstructed from the contrast signal because no signal from surfaces as such is conveyed to the visual cortex. In the visual cortex, the visual image is decomposed to local features by spatial filters that are selective for spatial frequency, orientation, and phase. Currently it is not known, however, how these features are subsequently integrated to form objects and object surfaces. In this thesis the integration mechanisms of achromatic surfaces were studied by psychophysically measuring the spatial frequency and orientation tuning of brightness perception. In addition, the effect of textures on the spread of brightness and the effect of phase of the inducing stimulus on brightness were measured. The novel findings of the thesis are that (1) a narrow spatial frequency band, independent of stimulus size and complexity, mediates brightness information (2) figure-ground brightness illusions are narrowly tuned for orientation (3) texture borders, without any luminance difference, are able to block the spread of brightness, and (4) edges and even- and odd-symmetric Gabors have a similar antagonistic effect on brightness. The narrow spatial frequency tuning suggests that only a subpopulation of neurons in V1 is involved in brightness perception. The independence of stimulus size and complexity indicates that the narrow tuning reflects hard-wired processing in the visual system. Further, it seems that figure-ground segregation and mechanisms integrating contrast polarities are closely related to the low level mechanisms of brightness perception. In conclusion, the results of the thesis suggest that a subpopulation of neurons in visual cortex selectively integrates information from different contrast polarities to reconstruct surface brightness.

Survival of Hendra Virus in the Environment: Modelling the Effect of Temperature

Hendra virus (HeV), a highly pathogenic zoonotic paramyxovirus recently emerged from bats, is a major concern to the horse industry in Australia. Previous research has shown that higher temperatures led to lower virus survival rates in the laboratory. We develop a model of survival of HeV in the environment as influenced by temperature. We used 20 years of daily temperature at six locations spanning the geographic range of reported HeV incidents to simulate the temporal and spatial impacts of temperature on HeV survival. At any location, simulated virus survival was greater in winter than in summer, and in any month of the year, survival was higher in higher latitudes. At any location, year-to-year variation in virus survival 24 h post-excretion was substantial and was as large as the difference between locations. Survival was higher in microhabitats with lower than ambient temperature, and when environmental exposure was shorter. The within-year pattern of virus survival mirrored the cumulative within-year occurrence of reported HeV cases, although there were no overall differences in survival in HeV case years and non-case years. The model examines the effect of temperature in isolation; actual virus survivability will reflect the effect of additional environmental factors

Two temperature viscous accretion flows around rotating black holes: Description of under-fed systems to ultra-luminous X-ray sources

We discuss two temperature accretion disk flows around rotating black holes. As we know that to explain observed hard X-rays the choice of Keplerian angular momentum profile is not unique, we consider the sub-Keplerian regime of the disk. Without any strict knowledge of the magnetic field structure, we assume the cooling mechanism is dominated by bremsstrahlung process. We show that in a range of Shakura-Sunyaev viscosity parameter 0.2 greater than or similar to alpha greater than or similar to 0.0005, flow behavior varies widely, particularly by means of the size of disk, efficiency of cooling and corresponding temperatures of ions and electrons. We also show that the disk around a rotating black hole is hotter compared to that around a Schwarzschild black hole, rendering a larger difference between ion and electron temperatures in the former case. With all the theoretical solutions in hand, finally we reproduce the observed luminosities (L) of two extreme cases-the under-fed AGNs and quasars (e.g. Sgr A') with L greater than or similar to 10(33) erg/s to ultra-luminous X-ray sources with L similar to 10(41) erg/s, at different combinations of mass accretion rate, ratio of specific heats, Shakura-Sunyaev viscosity parameter and Kerr parameter, and conclude that Sgr A' may be an intermediate spinning black hole.

Room temperature metathesis of aryl isocyanates and aromatic aldehydes catalyzed by group(IV) metal alkoxides: An experimental and computational study

Aromatic aldehydes and aryl isocyanates do not react at room temperature. However, we have shown for the first time that in the presence of catalytic amounts of group(IV) n-butoxide, they undergo metathesis at room temperature to produce imines with the extrusion of carbon dioxide. The mechanism of action has been investigated by a study of stoichiometric reactions. The insertion of aryl isocyanates into the metal n-butoxide occurs very rapidly. Reaction of the insertion product with the aldehyde is responsible for the metathesis. Among the n-butoxides of group(IV) metals, Ti((OBu)-Bu-n)(4) (8aTi) was found to be more efficient than Zr((OBu)-Bu-n)(4) (8aZr) and Hf((OBu)-Bu-n)(4) (8aHf) in carrying out metathesis. The surprisingly large difference in the metathetic activity of these alkoxides has been probed computationally using model complexes Ti(OMe)(4) (8bTi), Zr(OMe)(4) (8bZr) and Hf(OMe)(4) (8bHf) at the B3LYP/LANL2DZ level of theory. These studies indicate that the insertion product formed by Zr and Hf are extremely stable compared to that formed by Ti. This makes subsequent reaction of Zr and Hf complexes unfavorable.

Theory of the unusual doping and temperature dependence of photoemission spectra in manganites

A recent, major, puzzle in the core-level photoemission spectra of doped manganites is the observation of a 1–2 eV wide shoulder with intensity varying with temperature T as the square of the magnetization over a T scale of order 200 K, an order of magnitude less than electronic energies. This is addressed and resolved here, by extending a recently proposed two-fluid polaron–mobile electron model for these systems to include core-hole effects. The position of the shoulder is found to be determined by Coulomb and Jahn-Teller energies, while its spectral weight is determined by the mobile electron energetics which is strongly T and doping dependent, due to annealed disorder scattering from the polarons and the t2g core spins. Our theory accounts quantitatively for the observed T dependence of the difference spectra, and furthermore, explains the observed correspondence between spectral changes due to increasing doping and decreasing T.

Effect of disorder on the exponent in the coherence region in high temperature superconductors

Effect of disorder on the electrical resistance near the superconducting transition temperature in the paracoherence region of high temperature YBa2CU3O7-delta (YBCO) thin film superconductor is reported. For this, c-axis oriented YBa2Cu3O7-delta thin films having superconducting transition width varying between 0.27 K and 6 K were deposited using laser ablation and high pressure oxygen sputtering techniques. Disorder in these films was further created by using 100 MeV oxygen and 200 MeV silver ions with varying fluences. It is observed that the critical exponent in the paracoherence region for films with high transition temperature and small transition width is in agreement with the theoretically predicted value (gamma = 1.33) and is not affected by disorder, while for films with lower transition temperature and larger transition width the value of exponent is much larger as compared to that theoretically predicted and it varies from sample to sample and usually changes with disorder induced by radiation. This difference in the behaviour of the exponent has been explained on the basis of differences in the strength of weak links and the transition between temperatures T. and T, is interpreted as a percolation like transition with disorder. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.