Six thinking hats for electricity markets simulation: adapting meeting tools to agent decision

In almost all industrialized countries, the energy sector has suffered a severe restructuring that originated a greater complexity in market players’ interactions. The complexity that these changes brought made way for the creation of decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. MASCEM – “Multiagent Simulator for Competitive Electricity Markets” arose in this context providing a framework for evaluating new rules, new behaviour, and new participants in deregulated electricity markets. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimisation techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. ALBidS is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM it considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches. The Six Thinking Hats is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives. This tool’s goal is to force the thinker to move outside his habitual thinking style. It was developed to be used mainly at meetings in order to “run better meetings, make faster decisions”. This dissertation presents a study about the applicability of the Six Thinking Hats technique in Decision Support Systems, particularly with the multiagent paradigm like the MASCEM simulator. As such this work’s proposal is of a new agent, a meta-learner based on STH technique that organizes several different ALBidS’ strategies and combines the distinct answers into a single one that, expectedly, out-performs any of them.

Renewable energy in Islands: an integrated proposal for electricity generation and transports

The purpose of this article is to analyse and evaluate the economical, energetic and environmental impacts of the increasing penetration of renewable energies and electrical vehicles in isolated systems, such as Terceira Island in Azores and Madeira Island. Given the fact that the islands are extremely dependent on the importation of fossil fuels - not only for the production of energy, but also for the transportation’s sector – it’s intended to analyse how it is possible to reduce that dependency and determine the resultant reduction of pollutant gas emissions. Different settings have been analysed - with and without the penetration of EVs. The Terceira Island is an interesting case study, where EVs charging during off-peak hours could allow an increase in geothermal power, limited by the valley of power demand. The percentage of renewable energy in the electric power mix could reach the 74% in 2030 while at the same time, it is possible to reduce the emissions of pollutant gases in 45% and the purchase of fossil fuels in 44%. In Madeira, apart from wind, solar and small hydro power, there are not so many endogenous resources and the Island’s emission factor cannot be so reduced as in Terceira. Although, it is possible to reduce fossil fuels imports and emissions in 1.8% in 2030 when compared with a BAU scenario with a 14% of the LD fleet composed by EVs.

Renewable energy in Islands: an integrated proposal for electricity generation and transports

The purpose of this article is to analyse and evaluate the economical, energetic and environmental impacts of the increasing penetration of renewable energies and electrical vehicles in isolated systems, such as Terceira Island in Azores and Madeira Island. Given the fact that the islands are extremely dependent on the importation of fossil fuels - not only for the production of energy, but also for the transportation’s sector – it’s intended to analyse how it is possible to reduce that dependency and determine the resultant reduction of pollutant gas emissions. Different settings have been analysed - with and without the penetration of EVs. The Terceira Island is an interesting case study, where EVs charging during off-peak hours could allow an increase in geothermal power, limited by the valley of power demand. The percentage of renewable energy in the electric power mix could reach the 74% in 2030 while at the same time, it is possible to reduce the emissions of pollutant gases in 45% and the purchase of fossil fuels in 44%. In Madeira, apart from wind, solar and small hydro power, there are not so many endogenous resources and the Island’s emission factor cannot be so reduced as in Terceira. Although, it is possible to reduce fossil fuels imports and emissions in 1.8% in 2030 when compared with a BAU scenario with a 14% of the LD fleet composed by EVs.

Elspot: Nord Pool Spot Integration in MASCEM Electricity Market Simulator

The energy sector in industrialized countries has been restructured in the last years, with the purpose of decreasing electricity prices through the increase in competition, and facilitating the integration of distributed energy resources. However, the restructuring process increased the complexity in market players' interactions and generated emerging problems and new issues to be addressed. In order to provide players with competitive advantage in the market, decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets become extremely useful. In this context arises MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), a multi-agent based simulator that models real electricity markets. To reinforce MASCEM with the capability of recreating the electricity markets reality in the fullest possible extent, it is crucial to make it able to simulate as many market models and player types as possible. This paper presents a new negotiation model implemented in MASCEM based on the negotiation model used in day-ahead market (Elspot) of Nord Pool. This is a key module to study competitive electricity markets, as it presents well defined and distinct characteristics from the already implemented markets, and it is a reference electricity market in Europe (the one with the larger amount of traded power).

Metalearner based on Dynamic Neural Network for Strategic Bidding in electricity Markets

The restructuring of electricity markets, conducted to increase the competition in this sector, and decrease the electricity prices, brought with it an enormous increase in the complexity of the considered mechanisms. The electricity market became a complex and unpredictable environment, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. Software tools became, therefore, essential to provide simulation and decision support capabilities, in order to potentiate the involved players’ actions. This paper presents the development of a metalearner, applied to the decision support of electricity markets’ negotiation entities. The proposed metalearner executes a dynamic artificial neural network to create its own output, taking advantage on several learning algorithms implemented in ALBidS, an adaptive learning system that provides decision support to electricity markets’ players. The proposed metalearner considers different weights for each strategy, depending on its individual quality of performance. The results of the proposed method are studied and analyzed in scenarios based on real electricity markets’ data, using MASCEM - a multi-agent electricity market simulator that simulates market players’ operation in the market.

Realistic Multi-Agent Simulation of Competitive Electricity Markets

The dynamism and ongoing changes that the electricity markets sector is constantly suffering, enhanced by the huge increase in competitiveness, create the need of using simulation platforms to support operators, regulators, and the involved players in understanding and dealing with this complex environment. This paper presents an enhanced electricity market simulator, based on multi-agent technology, which provides an advanced simulation framework for the study of real electricity markets operation, and the interactions between the involved players. MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) uses real data for the creation of realistic simulation scenarios, which allow the study of the impacts and implications that electricity markets transformations bring to different countries. Also, the development of an upper-ontology to support the communication between participating agents, provides the means for the integration of this simulator with other frameworks, such as MAN-REM (Multi-Agent Negotiation and Risk Management in Electricity Markets). A case study using the enhanced simulation platform that results from the integration of several systems and different tools is presented, with a scenario based on real data, simulating the MIBEL electricity market environment, and comparing the simulation performance with the real electricity market results.

Electricity markets modeling considering complex contracts and aggregators

All over the world, the liberalization of electricity markets, which follows different paradigms, has created new challenges for those involved in this sector. In order to respond to these challenges, electric power systems suffered a significant restructuring in its mode of operation and planning. This restructuring resulted in a considerable increase of the electric sector competitiveness. Particularly, the Ancillary Services (AS) market has been target of constant renovations in its operation mode as it is a targeted market for the trading of services, which have as main objective to ensure the operation of electric power systems with appropriate levels of stability, safety, quality, equity and competitiveness. In this way, with the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources including distributed generation, demand response, storage units and electric vehicles, it is essential to develop new smarter and hierarchical methods of operation of electric power systems. As these resources are mostly connected to the distribution network, it is important to consider the introduction of this kind of resources in AS delivery in order to achieve greater reliability and cost efficiency of electrical power systems operation. The main contribution of this work is the design and development of mechanisms and methodologies of AS market and for energy and AS joint market, considering different management entities of transmission and distribution networks. Several models developed in this work consider the most common AS in the liberalized market environment: Regulation Down; Regulation Up; Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve. The presented models consider different rules and ways of operation, such as the division of market by network areas, which allows the congestion management of interconnections between areas; or the ancillary service cascading process, which allows the replacement of AS of superior quality by lower quality of AS, ensuring a better economic performance of the market. A major contribution of this work is the development an innovative methodology of market clearing process to be used in the energy and AS joint market, able to ensure viable and feasible solutions in markets, where there are technical constraints in the transmission network involving its division into areas or regions. The proposed method is based on the determination of Bialek topological factors and considers the contribution of the dispatch for all services of increase of generation (energy, Regulation Up, Spinning and Non-Spinning reserves) in network congestion. The use of Bialek factors in each iteration of the proposed methodology allows limiting the bids in the market while ensuring that the solution is feasible in any context of system operation. Another important contribution of this work is the model of the contribution of distributed energy resources in the ancillary services. In this way, a Virtual Power Player (VPP) is considered in order to aggregate, manage and interact with distributed energy resources. The VPP manages all the agents aggregated, being able to supply AS to the system operator, with the main purpose of participation in electricity market. In order to ensure their participation in the AS, the VPP should have a set of contracts with the agents that include a set of diversified and adapted rules to each kind of distributed resource. All methodologies developed and implemented in this work have been integrated into the MASCEM simulator, which is a simulator based on a multi-agent system that allows to study complex operation of electricity markets. In this way, the developed methodologies allow the simulator to cover more operation contexts of the present and future of the electricity market. In this way, this dissertation offers a huge contribution to the AS market simulation, based on models and mechanisms currently used in several real markets, as well as the introduction of innovative methodologies of market clearing process on the energy and AS joint market. This dissertation presents five case studies; each one consists of multiple scenarios. The first case study illustrates the application of AS market simulation considering several bids of market players. The energy and ancillary services joint market simulation is exposed in the second case study. In the third case study it is developed a comparison between the simulation of the joint market methodology, in which the player bids to the ancillary services is considered by network areas and a reference methodology. The fourth case study presents the simulation of joint market methodology based on Bialek topological distribution factors applied to transmission network with 7 buses managed by a TSO. The last case study presents a joint market model simulation which considers the aggregation of small players to a VPP, as well as complex contracts related to these entities. The case study comprises a distribution network with 33 buses managed by VPP, which comprises several kinds of distributed resources, such as photovoltaic, CHP, fuel cells, wind turbines, biomass, small hydro, municipal solid waste, demand response, and storage units.

Negotiation context analysis in electricity markets

Contextualization is critical in every decision making process. Adequate responses to problems depend not only on the variables with direct influence on the outcomes, but also on a correct contextualization of the problem regarding the surrounding environment. Electricity markets are dynamic environments with increasing complexity, potentiated by the last decades' restructuring process. Dealing with the growing complexity and competitiveness in this sector brought the need for using decision support tools. A solid example is MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), whose players' decisions are supported by another multiagent system – ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System). ALBidS uses artificial intelligence techniques to endow market players with adaptive learning capabilities that allow them to achieve the best possible results in market negotiations. This paper studies the influence of context awareness in the decision making process of agents acting in electricity markets. A context analysis mechanism is proposed, considering important characteristics of each negotiation period, so that negotiating agents can adapt their acting strategies to different contexts. The main conclusion is that context-dependant responses improve the decision making process. Suiting actions to different contexts allows adapting the behaviour of negotiating entities to different circumstances, resulting in profitable outcomes.

Six thinking hats: A novel metalearner for intelligent decision support in electricity markets

The energy sector has suffered a significant restructuring that has increased the complexity in electricity market players' interactions. The complexity that these changes brought requires the creation of decision support tools to facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. The Multiagent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM) arose in this context, providing a simulation framework for deregulated electricity markets. The Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System (ALBidS) is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM, ALBidS considers several different strategic methodologies based on highly distinct approaches. Six Thinking Hats (STH) is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives, forcing the thinker to move outside its usual way of thinking. This paper aims to complement the ALBidS strategies by combining them and taking advantage of their different perspectives through the use of the STH group decision technique. The combination of ALBidS' strategies is performed through the application of a genetic algorithm, resulting in an evolutionary learning approach.

Malaria in the State of Amazonas: a typical Brazilian tropical disease influenced by waves of economic development

In Brazil, more than 99% of malaria cases are reported in the Amazon, and the State of Amazonas accounts for 40% of this total. However, the accumulated experience and challenges in controlling malaria in this region in recent decades have not been reported. Throughout the first economic cycle during the rubber boom (1879 to 1912), malaria was recorded in the entire state, with the highest incidence in the villages near the Madeira River in the Southern part of the State of Amazonas. In the 1970s, during the second economic development cycle, the economy turned to the industrial sector and demanded a large labor force, resulting in a large migratory influx to the capital Manaus. Over time, a gradual increase in malaria transmission was observed in peri-urban areas. In the 1990s, the stimulation of agroforestry, particularly fish farming, led to the formation of permanent Anopheline breeding sites and increased malaria in settlements. The estimation of environmental impacts and the planning of measures to mitigate them, as seen in the construction of the Coari-Manaus gas pipeline, proved effective. Considering the changes occurred since the Amsterdam Conference in 1992, disease control has been based on early diagnosis and treatment, but the development of parasites that are resistant to major antimalarial drugs in Brazilian Amazon has posed a new challenge. Despite the decreased lethality and the gradual decrease in the number of malaria cases, disease elimination, which should be associated with government programs for economic development in the region, continues to be a challenge.

Frequency of Infection of Lutzomyia Phlebotomines with Leishmania braziliensis in a Brazilian Endemic Area as Assessed by Pinpoint Capture and Polymerase Chain Reaction

Leishmania infected of Lutzomyia spp. are rare in endemic areas. We tested the hypothesis that there is clustering of infected vectors by combining pinpoint capture with sensitive L. braziliensis kDNA minicircle specific PCR/dot blot in an endemic area in the State of Bahia. Thirty out of 335 samples (10 to 20 sand flies/sample; total of 4,027 female sand flies) were positive by PCR analysis and dot blot leading to a underestimated overall rate of 0.4% positive phlebotomines. However, 83.3% of the positive samples were contributed by a single sector out of four sectors of the whole studied area. This resulted in a rate of 1.5% Leishmania positive phlebotomines for this sector, far above rates of other sectors. Incidence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis cases for this sector was about twice that for other sectors. Our results show that there is a non-homogeneous distribution of Leishmania-infected vectors. Such a clustering may have implications in control strategies against leishmaniasis, and reinforces the necessity of understanding the ecological and geographical factors involved in leishmanial transmission.

Urban malaria in the Brazilian Western Amazon Region I: high prevalence of asymptomatic carriers in an urban riverside district is associated with a high level of clinical malaria

Cross sectional studies on malaria prevalence was performed in 2001, 2002, and 2004 in Vila Candelária, an urban riverside area of Porto Velho, Rondônia, in the Brazilian Western Amazon, followed by longitudinal surveys on malaria incidence. Vila Candelária is a working class district, provided with electricity, water supply, and basic sanitation. Previous preliminary surveys indicated high malaria incidence in this community. At the end of year 2000 regular diagnostic and treatment measures for malaria were introduced, with active search of febrile cases among residents. Despite of both rapid treatment of cases and relative good sanitary and housing conditions, the malaria incidence persisted at high levels during the following years with an annual parasite index of 150 to 300/1000 inhabitants. Parasite surveys in 2001, 2002, and 2004 achieved through microscopy and polymerase chain reaction to diagnose malaria showed a constant high prevalence of asymptomatic carriers for both Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax parasites. It was concluded that asymptomatic carriers represent an important reservoirs of parasites and that the carriers might contribute to maintaining the high level of transmission. Comparing our findings to similar geo-demographic situations found in other important urban communities of the Brazilian Amazon, we propose that asymptomatic carriers could explain malaria's outbreaks like the one recently observed in Manaus.

Framing the Europeanization footprint: a follow-up of the EU renewable electricity directive and its impact in Spai

És àmpliament conegut que l'europeïtzació ha guanyat molt terreny en els estudis europeus. Des de finals de la dècada de 1990, ha gaudit d'una important expansió per tal d'avaluar l'eficàcia de les polítiques a escala europea en l'àmbit intern. En aquest procés la política energètica ha jugat un paper molt paradoxal, sent persistentment exclosos de l'agenda de recerca de la europeïtzació, encara que la seva creixent importància en l'elaboració de polítiques comunitàries. No obstant això, la realitat és que, tot i haver estat reconegut recentment com una àrea de la UE amb l'aplicació del Tractat de Lisboa, també ha estat influenciat, directament o indirectament, pels efectes de l'europeïtzació. Com a resultat d'això, la política energètica ha estat considerat com un "cas especial" de l'europeïtzació, portant fins al moment per a la construcció d'un sector caracteritzat la política energètica europea. En aquest context, el present treball pretén explicar l'europeïtzació de les polítiques energètiques nacionals en l'elaboració de l'actuació de la UE per mitjà de la seva competència ambiental. Més explícitament, aquesta investigació tracta de la naturalesa de la reglamentació comunitària en matèria d'energia renovable com un mecanisme d'europeïtzació amb especial èmfasi en el seu impacte a Espanya. Aquest treball sosté que (1) la lluita europea contra el canvi climàtic s'ha obert un camí per a la participació de la UE en matèria de política energètica, i que (2) encara que limitat aquest procés està produint alguns canvis en les polítiques energètiques nacionals. Universitat

Tri-sector partnerships in social entrepreneurship: discourse and practice of the actors from the circles of action and reflection

This article discusses the construction of tri-sector partnerships in three projects conducted in Brazil in different fields of intervention of public policy (access to water, basic education and performance of boards of rights of children and adolescents). Collaborative articulations involving the players from three sectors (the State, civil society and the market) are practices that are little studied in the Brazilian and even in the international context, as tri-sector partnerships are rare, despite the proliferation of lines of discourse in support of alliances between governments and civil society or between companies and NGOs in the management of public policy. As a research strategy, this study resorted to cooperative inquiry, a method that involves breaking down the boundaries between the subjects and the objects of the analysis. Besides working toward a better understanding of the challenges of building tri-sector partnerships in the Brazilian context, the article also tries to show the relevance to public policy studies of investigative methods based on the subjects studied, as a means of developing an understanding of the practices, lines of discourse and dilemmas linked to social action in social programs.

The evolution of universities' relations with the business sector in Brazil: What national publications between 1980 and 2012 reveal

ABSTRACT This paper addresses the changes in university-industry relations in Brazil regarding innovation activities. It is based on a survey of articles published in major national journals or presented at the most relevant Brazilian and regional conferences, between 1980 and 2012. The year 1980 was chosen due to the creation of the Technological Innovation Offices (NITs), which was the first government initiative to encourage knowledge transfer from universities to companies; the second was the Innovation Act of 2004. Our assumption was that after the Act the number of academic papers on this subject would increase, bringing new ideas and propositions of models to enhance this relationship. The methodology employed a qualitative, exploratory approach, using bibliographical research and a bibliometric analysis of 247 papers. Literature review of international studies shows the discussion of problems and suggestions for improvements, while in Brazil there is still a debate on whether this collaboration should occur, and if this is a legitimate role for the university. Despite the numerical growth, the content analysis showed few papers on new configurations and procedures for partnership management. We conclude that university-industry relations are not a regular and totally accepted process in Brazilian public universities, which reflect an ideological bias against cooperation with firms.