Optimal Combined Forecasts for Electricity Prices: Influence of Clean Energies

In this work, an electricity price forecasting model is developed. The performance of the proposed approach is improved by considering renewable energies (wind power and hydro generation) as explanatory variables. Additionally, the resulting forecasts are obtained as an optimal combination of a set of several univariate and multivariate time series models. The large computational experiment carried out using out-of-sample forecasts for every hour and day allows withdrawing statistically sound conclusions

Fast ignition driven by quasi-monoenergetic ions: Optimal ion type and reduction of ignition energies with an ion beam array

Fast ignition of inertial fusion targets driven by quasi-monoenergetic ion beams is investigated by means of numerical simulations. Light and intermediate ions such as lithium, carbon, aluminum and vanadium have been considered. Simulations show that the minimum ignition energies of an ideal configuration of compressed Deuterium-Tritium are almost independent on the ion atomic number. However, they are obtained for increasing ion energies, which scale, approximately, as Z2, where Z is the ion atomic number. Assuming that the ion beam can be focused into 10 ?m spots, a new irradiation scheme is proposed to reduce the ignition energies. The combination of intermediate Z ions, such as 5.5 GeV vanadium, and the new irradiation scheme allows a reduction of the number of ions required for ignition by, roughly, three orders of magnitude when compared with the standard proton fast ignition scheme.

An optimal yet fast pruning algorithm to reduce latency in multiview prediction structures

We propose a new algorithm for the design of prediction structures with low delay and limited penalty in the rate-distortion performance for multiview video coding schemes. This algorithm constitutes one of the elements of a framework for the analysis and optimization of delay in multiview coding schemes that is based in graph theory. The objective of the algorithm is to find the best combination of prediction dependencies to prune from a multiview prediction structure, given a number of cuts. Taking into account the properties of the graph-based analysis of the encoding delay, the algorithm is able to find the best prediction dependencies to eliminate from an original prediction structure, while limiting the number of cut combinations to evaluate. We show that this algorithm obtains optimum results in the reduction of the encoding latency with a lower computational complexity than exhaustive search alternatives.

Coexpression of factor VIII heavy and light chain adeno-associated viral vectors produces biologically active protein

We are interested in using recombinant adeno-associated viral vectors in the treatment of hemophilia A. Because of the size constraints of recombinant adeno-associated viral vectors, we delivered the heavy and light chains of the human factor 8 (hFVIII) cDNA independently by using two separate vectors. Recombinant AAV vectors were constructed that utilized the human elongation factor 1α promoter, a human growth factor polyadenylation signal, and the cDNA sequences encoding either the heavy or light chain of hFVIII. Portal vein injections of each vector alone, a combination of both vectors, or a hFIX control vector were performed in C57BL/6 mice. An ELISA specific for the light chain of hFVIII demonstrated very high levels (2–10 μg/ml) of protein expression in animals injected with the light chain vector alone or with both vectors. We utilized a chromogenic assay in combination with an antibody specific to hFVIII to determine the amount of biologically active hFVIII in mouse plasma. In animals injected with both the heavy and light chain vectors, greater than physiological levels (200–400 ng/ml) of biologically active hFVIII were produced. This suggests that coexpression of the heavy and light chains of hFVIII may be a feasible approach for treatment of hemophilia A.

Gilbert syndrome and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency: A dose-dependent genetic interaction crucial to neonatal hyperbilirubinemia

Severe jaundice leading to kernicterus or death in the newborn is the most devastating consequence of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (EC 1.1.1.49; G-6-PD) deficiency. We asked whether the TA repeat promoter polymorphism in the gene for uridinediphosphoglucuronate glucuronosyltransferase 1 (EC 2.4.1.17; UDPGT1), associated with benign jaundice in adults (Gilbert syndrome), increases the incidence of neonatal hyperbilirubinemia in G-6-PD deficiency. DNA from term neonates was analyzed for UDPGT1 polymorphism (normal homozygotes, heterozygotes, variant homozygotes), and for G-6-PD Mediterranean deficiency. The variant UDPGT1 promoter allele frequency was similar in G-6-PD-deficient and normal neonates. Thirty (22.9%) G-6-PD deficient neonates developed serum total bilirubin ≥ 257 μmol/liter, vs. 22 (9.2%) normals (P = 0.0005). Of those with the normal homozygous UDPGT1 genotype, the incidence of hyperbilirubinemia was similar in G-6-PD-deficients and controls (9.7% and 9.9%). In contrast, in the G-6-PD-deficient neonates, those with the heterozygous or homozygous variant UDPGT1 genotype had a higher incidence of hyperbilirubinemia than corresponding controls (heterozygotes: 31.6% vs. 6.7%, P < 0.0001; variant homozygotes: 50% vs. 14.7%, P = 0.02). Among G-6-PD-deficient infants the incidence of hyperbilirubinemia was greater in those with the heterozygous (31.6%, P = 0.006) or variant homozygous (50%, P = 0.003) UDPGT1 genotype than in normal homozygotes. In contrast, among those normal for G-6-PD, the UDPGT1 polymorphism had no significant effect (heterozygotes: 6.7%; variant homozygotes: 14.7%). Thus, neither G-6-PD deficiency nor the variant UDPGT1 promoter, alone, increased the incidence of hyperbilirubinemia, but both in combination did. This gene interaction may serve as a paradigm of the interaction of benign genetic polymorphisms in the causation of disease.

Inverse radiation dose-rate effects on somatic and germ-line mutations and DNA damage rates

The mutagenic effect of low linear energy transfer ionizing radiation is reduced for a given dose as the dose rate (DR) is reduced to a low level, a phenomenon known as the direct DR effect. Our reanalysis of published data shows that for both somatic and germ-line mutations there is an opposite, inverse DR effect, with reduction from low to very low DR, the overall dependence of induced mutations being parabolically related to DR, with a minimum in the range of 0.1 to 1.0 cGy/min (rule 1). This general pattern can be attributed to an optimal induction of error-free DNA repair in a DR region of minimal mutability (MMDR region). The diminished activation of repair at very low DRs may reflect a low ratio of induced (“signal”) to spontaneous background DNA damage (“noise”). Because two common DNA lesions, 8-oxoguanine and thymine glycol, were already known to activate repair in irradiated mammalian cells, we estimated how their rates of production are altered upon radiation exposure in the MMDR region. For these and other abundant lesions (abasic sites and single-strand breaks), the DNA damage rate increment in the MMDR region is in the range of 10% to 100% (rule 2). These estimates suggest a genetically programmed optimatization of response to radiation in the MMDR region.

Activation of polyamine catabolism in transgenic rats induces acute pancreatitis

Polyamines are required for optimal growth and function of cells. Regulation of their cellular homeostasis is therefore tightly controlled. The key regulatory enzyme for polyamine catabolism is the spermidine/spermine N1-acetyltransferase (SSAT). Depletion of cellular polyamines has been associated with inhibition of growth and programmed cell death. To investigate the physiological function SSAT, we generated a transgenic rat line overexpressing the SSAT gene under the control of the inducible mouse metallothionein I promoter. Administration of zinc resulted in a marked induction of pancreatic SSAT, overaccumulation of putrescine, and appearance of N1-acetylspermidine with extensive depletion of spermidine and spermine in transgenic animals. The activation of pancreatic polyamine catabolism resulted in acute pancreatitis. In nontransgenic animals, an equal dose of zinc did not affect pancreatic polyamine pools, nor did it induce pancreatitis. Acetylated polyamines, products of the SSAT-catalyzed reaction, are metabolized further by the polyamine oxidase (PAO) generating hydrogen peroxide, which might cause or contribute to the pancreatic inflammatory process. Administration of specific PAO inhibitor, MDL72527 [N1,N2-bis(2,3-butadienyl)-1,4-butanediamine], however, did not affect the histological score of the pancreatitis. Induction of SSAT by the polyamine analogue N1,N11-diethylnorspermine reduced pancreatic polyamines levels only moderately and without signs of organ inflammation. In contrast, the combination of N1,N11-diethylnorspermine with MDL72527 dramatically activated SSAT, causing profound depletion of pancreatic polyamines and acute pancreatitis. These results demonstrate that acute induction of SSAT leads to pancreatic inflammation, suggesting that sufficient pools of higher polyamine levels are essential to maintain pancreatic integrity. This inflammatory process is independent of the production of hydrogen peroxide by PAO.

Immunization with DNA vaccines encoding glycoprotein D or glycoprotein B, alone or in combination, induces protective immunity in animal models of herpes simplex virus-2 disease.

DNA vaccines expressing herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) full-length glycoprotein D (gD), or a truncated form of HSV-2 glycoprotein B (gB) were evaluated for protective efficacy in two experimental models of HSV-2 infection. Intramuscular (i.m.) injection of mice showed that each construction induced neutralizing serum antibodies and protected the mice from lethal HSV-2 infection. Dose-titration studies showed that low doses (< or = 1 microgram) of either DNA construction induced protective immunity, and that a single immunization with the gD construction was effective. The two DNAs were then tested in a low-dosage combination in guinea pigs. Immune sera from DNA-injected animals had antibodies to both gD and gB, and virus neutralizing activity. When challenged by vaginal infection with HSV-2, the DNA-immunized animals were significantly protected from primary genital disease.

Optimal Design of a Hybrid Membrane System Combining Reverse and Forward Osmosis for Seawater Desalination

In this work we study Forward Osmosis (FO) as an emerging desalination technology, and its capability to replace totally or partially Reverse Osmosis (RO) in order to reduce the great amount of energy required in the current desalination plants. For this purpose, we propose a superstructure that includes both membrane based desalination technologies, allowing the selection of only one of the technologies or a combination of both of them seeking for the optimal configuration of the network. The optimization problem is solved for a seawater desalination plant with a given fresh water production. The results obtained show that the optimal solution combines both desalination technologies to reduce not only the energy consumption but also the total cost of the desalination process in comparison with the same plant but operating only with RO.

CIMBNC- Combination and interactions of three kinds of nanoclays structural modifiers, for the colored bio-nanocomposites optimization

Biopolymers do not have competitive prices, which has prevented their industrial exploitation on a global scale so far. In this context, Using nanoclays, improvements in certain biopolymer properties, mainly mechanical and thermal, have been achieved. However, research has been much less focused on changing optical properties through the incorporation of nanoclays. At the same time, current research has focused on obtaining nanopigments, by organic dyes adsoptions into different nanoclays in order to achieve sustainable colouring and high performance materials. By combining advances in these lines of research, biodegradable composites with optimal mechanical and optical properties can be obtained. The aim of this work is to find the optimal formulation of naturally sourced nanopigments, incorporate them into a biological origin epoxy resin, and obtain a significant improvement in their mechanical, and optical properties. We combine three structural modifiers in the nanopigment synthesis: surfactant, silane and mordant salt. The latter was selected in order to replicate the mordant textile dyeing with natural dyes. Using a Taguchi’s desing L8, we look for the effect of the presence of the modifiers, the pH acidification, and the interactions effect between the synthesis factors. Three natural dyes were selected: chlorophyll, beta-carotene, and beetroot extract. Furthermore we use two kinds of laminar nanoclays, differentiated by the ion exchange charge: montmorillonite, and hydrotalcite. Then the thermal, mechanical and colorimetric characterization of the bionanocomposite materials was carried out. The optimal conditions to obtain the best bionanocomposite materials are using acid pH, and modifying the nanoclays with mordant and surfactant.

Essays in dynamic optimal taxation: working experience, unemployment scarring and poverty

This thesis investigates the design of optimal tax systems in dynamic environments. The first essay characterizes the optimal tax system where wages depend on stochastic shocks and work experience. In addition to redistributive and efficiency motives, the taxation of inexperienced workers depends on a second-best requirement that encourages work experience, a social insurance motive and incentive effects. Calibrations using U.S. data yield higher expected optimal marginal income tax rates for experienced workers for most of the inexperienced workers. They confirm that the average marginal income tax rate increases (decreases) with age when shocks and work experience are substitutes (complements). Finally, more variability in experienced workers' earnings prospects leads to increasing tax rates since income taxation acts as a social insurance mechanism. In the second essay, the properties of an optimal tax system are investigated in a dynamic private information economy where labor market frictions create unemployment that destroys workers' human capital. A two-skill type model is considered where wages and employment are endogenous. I find that the optimal tax system distorts the first-period wages of all workers below their efficient levels which leads to more employment. The standard no-distortion-at-the-top result no longer holds due to the combination of private information and the destruction of human capital. I show this result analytically under the Maximin social welfare function and confirm it numerically for a general social welfare function. I also investigate the use of a training program and job creation subsidies. The final essay analyzes the optimal linear tax system when there is a population of individuals whose perceptions of savings are linked to their disposable income and their family background through family cultural transmission. Aside from the standard equity/efficiency trade-off, taxes account for the endogeneity of perceptions through two channels. First, taxing labor decreases income, which decreases the perception of savings through time. Second, taxation on savings corrects for the misperceptions of workers and thus savings and labor decisions. Numerical simulations confirm that behavioral issues push labor income taxes upward to finance saving subsidies. Government transfers to individuals are also decreased to finance those same subsidies.

Impact of maternally derived immunity on piglets’ immune response and protection against porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) after vaccination against PCV2 at different age

BACKGROUND: This study was aimed at evaluating the clinical protection, the level of Porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) viremia and the immune response (antibodies and IFN-γ secreting cells (SC)) in piglets derived from PCV2 vaccinated sows and themselves vaccinated against PCV2 at different age, namely at 4, 6 and 8 weeks. The cohort study has been carried out over three subsequent production cycles (replicates). At the start/enrolment, 46 gilts were considered at first mating, bled and vaccinated. At the first, second and third farrowing, dams were bled and re-vaccinated at the subsequent mating after weaning piglets. Overall 400 piglets at each farrowing (first, second and third) were randomly allocated in three different groups (100 piglets/group) based on the timing of vaccination (4, 6 or 8 weeks of age). A fourth group was kept non-vaccinated (controls). Piglets were vaccinated intramuscularly with one dose (2 mL) of a commercial PCV2a-based subunit vaccine (Porcilis® PCV). Twenty animals per group were bled at weaning and from vaccination to slaughter every 4 weeks for the detection of PCV2 viremia, humoral and cell-mediated immune responses. Clinical signs and individual treatments (morbidity), mortality, and body weight of all piglets were recorded. RESULTS: All vaccination schemes (4, 6 and 8 weeks of age) were able to induce an antibody response and IFN-γ SC. The highest clinical and virological protection sustained by immune reactivity was observed in pigs vaccinated at 6 weeks of age. Overall, repeated PCV2 vaccination in sows at mating and the subsequent higher levels of maternally derived antibodies did not significantly interfere with the induction of both humoral and cell-mediated immunity in their piglets after vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of vaccination in sows at mating and in piglets at 6 weeks of age was more effective for controlling PCV2 natural infection, than other vaccination schemas, thus sustaining that some interference of MDA with the induction of an efficient immune response could be considered. In conclusion, optimal vaccination strategy needs to balance the levels of passive immunity, the management practices and timing of infection.

Prospective evaluation of a D-optimal designed population pharmacokinetic study

Recently, methods for computing D-optimal designs for population pharmacokinetic studies have become available. However there are few publications that have prospectively evaluated the benefits of D-optimality in population or single-subject settings. This study compared a population optimal design with an empirical design for estimating the base pharmacokinetic model for enoxaparin in a stratified randomized setting. The population pharmacokinetic D-optimal design for enoxaparin was estimated using the PFIM function (MATLAB version 6.0.0.88). The optimal design was based on a one-compartment model with lognormal between subject variability and proportional residual variability and consisted of a single design with three sampling windows (0-30 min, 1.5-5 hr and 11 - 12 hr post-dose) for all patients. The empirical design consisted of three sample time windows per patient from a total of nine windows that collectively represented the entire dose interval. Each patient was assigned to have one blood sample taken from three different windows. Windows for blood sampling times were also provided for the optimal design. Ninety six patients were recruited into the study who were currently receiving enoxaparin therapy. Patients were randomly assigned to either the optimal or empirical sampling design, stratified for body mass index. The exact times of blood samples and doses were recorded. Analysis was undertaken using NONMEM (version 5). The empirical design supported a one compartment linear model with additive residual error, while the optimal design supported a two compartment linear model with additive residual error as did the model derived from the full data set. A posterior predictive check was performed where the models arising from the empirical and optimal designs were used to predict into the full data set. This revealed the optimal'' design derived model was superior to the empirical design model in terms of precision and was similar to the model developed from the full dataset. This study suggests optimal design techniques may be useful, even when the optimized design was based on a model that was misspecified in terms of the structural and statistical models and when the implementation of the optimal designed study deviated from the nominal design.

Periextubation caffeine in preterm neonates: A randomized dose response trial

Objective: To compare the effectiveness of three dosing regimens of caffeine for preterm infants in the periextubation period. Methods: A randomized double-blind clinical trial of three dosing regimens of caffeine citrate ( 3, 15 and 30 mg/kg) for periextubation management of ventilated preterm infants was undertaken. Infants born < 32 weeks gestation who were ventilated for > 48 h were eligible for the study. Caffeine citrate was given as a once daily dose for a period of 6 days commencing 24 h prior to a planned extubation, or within 6 h of an unplanned extubation. The primary outcome measure was extubation failure, defined as neonates who were unable to be extubated within 48 h of caffeine loading or who required reventilation or doxapram dose within 7 days of caffeine loading. Continuous recordings of oxygen saturation and heart rate were undertaken in a subgroup of enrolled infants. Results: A total of 127 babies were enrolled into the study ( 42, 40, 45, in the 3, 15, and 30 mg/kg groups, respectively). No statistically significant difference was demonstrated in the incidence of extubation failure between dosing groups ( 19, 10, and 11 infants in the 3, 15, and 30 mg/kg groups, respectively), however, infants in the two higher dose groups had statistically significantly less documented apnoea than the lowest dose group. Of the 37 neonates with continuous pulse oximetry recordings, those on higher doses of caffeine recorded a statistically significantly higher mean heart rate, oxygen saturations and less time with oxygen saturations < 85%. Conclusions: This trial indicated there were short-term benefits of decreased apnoea in the immediate periextubation period for ventilated infants born < 32 weeks gestation receiving higher doses of caffeine. Further studies with larger numbers of infants assessing longer-term outcomes are necessary to determine the optimal dosing regimen of caffeine in preterm infants.

Transient production of recombinant proteins by chinese hamster ovary cells using polyethyleneimine/DNA complexes in combination with microtubule disrupting anti-mitotic agents

We have developed a simple and robust transient expression system utilizing the 25 kDa branched cationic polymer polyethylenimine (PEI) as a vehicle to deliver plasmid DNA into suspension-adapted Chinese hamster ovary cells synchronized in G2/M phase of the cell cycle by anti-mitotic microtubule disrupting agents. The PEI-mediated transfection process was optimized with respect to PEI nitrogen to DNA phosphate molar ratio and the plasmid DNA mass to cell ratio using a reporter construct encoding firefly luciferase. Optimal production of luciferase was observed at a PEI N to DNA P ratio of 10:1 and 5 mug DNA 10(6) cells(-1). To manipulate transgene expression at mitosis, we arrested cells in G2/M phase of the cell cycle using the microtubule depolymerizing agent nocodazole. Using secreted human alkaline phosphatase (SEAP) and enhanced green fluorescent protein (eGFP) as reporters we showed that continued inclusion of nocodazole in cell culture medium significantly increased both transfection efficiency and reporter protein production. In the presence of nocodazole, greater than 90% of cells were eGFP positive 24 h post-transfection and qSEAP was increased almost fivefold, doubling total SEAP production. Under optimal conditions for PEI-mediated transfection, transient production of a recombinant chimeric IgG(4) encoded on a single vector was enhanced twofold by nocodazole, a final yield of approximately 5 mug mL(-1) achieved at an initial viable cell density of 1 x 10(6) cells mL(-1). The glycosylation of the recombinant antibody at Asn(297) was not significantly affected by nocodazole during transient production by this method. (C) 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.