Fire in the Earth System

Fire is an important component of the Earth System that is tightly coupled with climate, vegetation, biogeochemical cycles, and human activities. Observations of how fire regimes change on seasonal to millennial timescales are providing an improved understanding of the hierarchy of controls on fire regimes. Climate is the principal control on fire regimes, although human activities have had an increasing influence on the distribution and incidence of fire in recent centuries. Understanding of the controls and variability of fire also underpins the development of models, both conceptual and numerical, that allow us to predict how future climate and land-use changes might influence fire regimes. Although fires in fire-adapted ecosystems can be important for biodiversity and ecosystem function, positive effects are being increasingly outweighed by losses of ecosystem services. As humans encroach further into the natural habitat of fire, social and economic costs are also escalating. The prospect of near-term rapid and large climate changes, and the escalating costs of large wildfires, necessitates a radical re-thinking and the development of approaches to fire management that promote the more harmonious co-existence of fire and people.

Predictability of large interannual Arctic sea-ice anomalies

In projections of twenty-first century climate, Arctic sea ice declines and at the same time exhibits strong interannual anomalies. Here, we investigate the potential to predict these strong sea-ice anomalies under a perfect-model assumption, using the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model in the same setup as in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We study two cases of strong negative sea-ice anomalies: a 5-year-long anomaly for present-day conditions, and a 10-year-long anomaly for conditions projected for the middle of the twenty-first century. We treat these anomalies in the CMIP5 projections as the truth, and use exactly the same model configuration for predictions of this synthetic truth. We start ensemble predictions at different times during the anomalies, considering lagged-perfect and sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions. We find that the onset and amplitude of the interannual anomalies are not predictable. However, the further deepening of the anomaly can be predicted for typically 1 year lead time if predictions start after the onset but before the maximal amplitude of the anomaly. The magnitude of an extremely low summer sea-ice minimum is hard to predict: the skill of the prediction ensemble is not better than a damped-persistence forecast for lead times of more than a few months, and is not better than a climatology forecast for lead times of two or more years. Predictions of the present-day anomaly are more skillful than predictions of the mid-century anomaly. Predictions using sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions are competitive with those using lagged-perfect initial conditions for lead times of a year or less, but yield degraded skill for longer lead times. The results presented here suggest that there is limited prospect of predicting the large interannual sea-ice anomalies expected to occur throughout the twenty-first century.

The invisible hand guiding technology: crossing the boundary of technology

This paper examines attitudes towards Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology and explores the wider concerns of the ever increasing prospect of social tagging. Capturing vignettes and narratives from a sample of study participants, the paper highlights concerns about adopting RFID implements now and in the future. The views captured through qualitative methodology act as the platform for a wider argument concerning the human rights and privacy intrusion concerns over IT applications. Intended as an insight into the reality of technology impact, this paper lists a series of questions for leaders to consider over matters of human rights specifically concerning RFID adoption. The authors conclude that caution, naivety and fear are the underlying reasons for society accepting RFIDs without question and that RFIDs will be a part of everyday working and domestic life in the near future.

Numerical analyses of Runge–Kutta implicit–explicit schemes for horizontally explicit, vertically implicit solutions of atmospheric models

With the prospect of exascale computing, computational methods requiring only local data become especially attractive. Consequently, the typical domain decomposition of atmospheric models means horizontally-explicit vertically-implicit (HEVI) time-stepping schemes warrant further attention. In this analysis, Runge-Kutta implicit-explicit schemes from the literature are analysed for their stability and accuracy using a von Neumann stability analysis of two linear systems. Attention is paid to the numerical phase to indicate the behaviour of phase and group velocities. Where the analysis is tractable, analytically derived expressions are considered. For more complicated cases, amplification factors have been numerically generated and the associated amplitudes and phase diagnosed. Analysis of a system describing acoustic waves has necessitated attributing the three resultant eigenvalues to the three physical modes of the system. To do so, a series of algorithms has been devised to track the eigenvalues across the frequency space. The result enables analysis of whether the schemes exactly preserve the non-divergent mode; and whether there is evidence of spurious reversal in the direction of group velocities or asymmetry in the damping for the pair of acoustic modes. Frequency ranges that span next-generation high-resolution weather models to coarse-resolution climate models are considered; and a comparison is made of errors accumulated from multiple stability-constrained shorter time-steps from the HEVI scheme with a single integration from a fully implicit scheme over the same time interval. Two schemes, “Trap2(2,3,2)” and “UJ3(1,3,2)”, both already used in atmospheric models, are identified as offering consistently good stability and representation of phase across all the analyses. Furthermore, according to a simple measure of computational cost, “Trap2(2,3,2)” is the least expensive.

Thin place

This publication is a full colour bi-lingual catalogue for the exhibition Thin Place, curated by Ciara Healy for Oriel Myrddin. It includes artwork by five interdisciplinary artists based in West Wales, the West of Ireland and London. The exhibition, symposium and education programme, funded by the Arts Council of Wales aims to show how the fields of art, literature, science and theology are interconnected, especially when considering the nature of reality, the concept of an otherworld and the prospect of an afterlife. Included in the catalogue are texts especially commissioned for the exhibition by professionals who work in disciplines outside of the art world. It also includes an introductory essay by Ciara Healy.

Thermal remote sensing of sea surface temperature

Sea surface temperature has been an important application of remote sensing from space for three decades. This chapter first describes well-established methods that have delivered valuable routine observations of sea surface temperature for meteorology and oceanography. Increasingly demanding requirements, often related to climate science, have highlighted some limitations of these ap-proaches. Practitioners have had to revisit techniques of estimation, of characterising uncertainty, and of validating observations—and even to reconsider the meaning(s) of “sea surface temperature”. The current understanding of these issues is reviewed, drawing attention to ongoing questions. Lastly, the prospect for thermal remote sens-ing of sea surface temperature over coming years is discussed.

Parametric preference functionals under risk in the gain domain: a Bayesian analysis

The performance of rank dependent preference functionals under risk is comprehensively evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Model comparisons are made at three levels of heterogeneity plus three ways of linking deterministic and stochastic models: the differences in utilities, the differences in certainty equivalents and contextualutility. Overall, the"bestmodel", which is conditional on the form of heterogeneity is a form of Rank Dependent Utility or Prospect Theory that cap tures the majority of behaviour at both the representative agent and individual level. However, the curvature of the probability weighting function for many individuals is S-shaped, or ostensibly concave or convex rather than the inverse S-shape commonly employed. Also contextual utility is broadly supported across all levels of heterogeneity. Finally, the Priority Heuristic model, previously examined within a deterministic setting, is estimated within a stochastic framework, and allowing for endogenous thresholds does improve model performance although it does not compete well with the other specications considered.

Dyspnea-related cues engage the prefrontal cortex - evidence from functional brain imaging in COPD

Dyspnea is the major source of disability in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). In COPD, environmental cues (e.g. the prospect of having to climb stairs) become associated with dyspnea, and may trigger dyspnea even before physical activity commences. We hypothesised that brain activation relating to such cues would be different between COPD patients and healthy controls, reflecting greater engagement of emotional mechanisms in patients. Methods: Using FMRI, we investigated brain responses to dyspnea-related word cues in 41 COPD patients and 40 healthy age-matched controls. We combined these findings with scores of self-report questionnaires thus linking the FMRI task with clinically relevant measures. This approach was adapted from studies in pain that enables identification of brain networks responsible for pain processing despite absence of a physical challenge. Results: COPD patients demonstrate activation in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) which correlated with the visual analogue scale (VAS) response to word cues. This activity independently correlated with patient-reported questionnaires of depression, fatigue and dyspnea vigilance. Activation in the anterior insula, lateral prefrontal cortex (lPFC) and precuneus correlated with the VAS dyspnea scale but not the questionnaires. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that engagement of the brain's emotional circuitry is important for interpretation of dyspnea-related cues in COPD, and is influenced by depression, fatigue, and vigilance. A heightened response to salient cues is associated with increased symptom perception in chronic pain and asthma, and our findings suggest such mechanisms may be relevant in COPD.

Responsibility effects in decision making under risk

We systematically explore decision situations in which a decision maker bears responsibility for somebody else's outcomes as well as for her own in situations of payoff equality. In the gain domain we confirm the intuition that being responsible for somebody else's payoffs increases risk aversion. This is however not attributable to a 'cautious shift' as often thought. Indeed, looking at risk attitudes in the loss domain, we find an increase in risk seeking under responsibility. This raises issues about the nature of various decision biases under risk, and to what extent changed behavior under responsibility may depend on a social norm of caution in situations of responsibility versus naive corrections from perceived biases. To further explore this issue, we designed a second experiment to explore risk-taking behavior for gain prospects offering very small or very large probabilities of winning. For large probabilities, we find increased risk aversion, thus confirming our earlier finding. For small probabilities however, we find an increase of risk seeking under conditions of responsibility. The latter finding thus discredits hypotheses of a social rule dictating caution under responsibility, and can be explained through flexible self-correction models predicting an accentuation of the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes predicted by prospect theory. An additional accountability mechanism does not change risk behavior, except for mixed prospects, in which it reduces loss aversion. This indicates that loss aversion is of a fundamentally different nature than probability weighting or utility curvature. Implications for debiasing are discussed.

Science drives horticulture's progress and profit

Horticultural science linked with basic studies in biology, chemistry, physics and engineering has laid the foundation for advances in applied knowledge which are at the heart of commercial, environmental and social horticulture. In few disciplines is science more rapidly translated into applicable technologies than in the huge range of man’s activities embraced within horticulture which are discussed in this Trilogy. This chapter surveys the origins of horticultural science developing as an integral part of the 16th century “Scientific Revolution”. It identifies early discoveries during the latter part of the 19th and early 20th centuries which rationalized the control of plant growth, flowering and fruiting and the media in which crops could be cultivated. The products of these discoveries formed the basis on which huge current industries of worldwide significance are founded in fruit, vegetable and ornamental production. More recent examples of the application of horticultural science are used in an explanation of how the integration of plant breeding, crop selection and astute marketing highlighted by the New Zealand industry have retained and expanded the viability of production which supplies huge volumes of fruit into the world’s markets. This is followed by an examination of science applied to tissue and cell culture as an example of technologies which have already produced massive industrial applications but hold the prospect for generating even greater advances in the future. Finally, examples are given of nascent scientific discoveries which hold the prospect for generating horticultural industries with considerable future impact. These include systems modeling and biology, nanotechnology, robotics, automation and electronics, genetics and plant breeding, and more efficient and effective use of resources and the employment of benign microbes. In conclusion there is an estimation of the value of horticultural science to society.

Positive phenotypic selection inferred from phylogenies

Rates of phenotypic evolution vary widely in nature and these rates may often reflect the intensity of natural selection. Here we outline an approach for detecting exceptional shifts in the rate of phenotypic evolution across phylogenies. We introduce a simple new branch-specific metric ∆V/∆B that divides observed phenotypic change along a branch into two components: (1) that attributable to the background rate (∆B), and (2) that attributable to departures from the background rate (∆V). Where the amount of expected change derived from variation in the rate of morphological evolution doubles that explained by to the background rate (∆V/∆B > 2), we identify this as positive phenotypic selection. We apply our approach to six datasets, finding multiple instances of positive selection in each. Our results support the growing appreciation that the traditional gradual view of phenotypic evolution is rarely upheld, with a more episodic view taking its place. This moves focus away from viewing phenotypic evolution as a simple homogeneous process and facilitates reconciliation with macroevolutionary interpretations from a genetic perspective, paving the way to novel insights into the link between genotype and phenotype. The ability to detect positive selection when genetic data are unavailable or unobtainable represents an attractive prospect for extant species, but when applied to fossil data it can reveal patterns of natural selection in deep time that would otherwise be impossible.

Voting rights of refugees

The book develops a novel legal argument about the voting rights of recognised 1951 Geneva Convention Refugees. The main normative contention is that such refugees should have the right to vote in the political community where they reside, assuming that the political community is a democracy and that its citizens have the right to vote. The basis of this contention is that the right to political participation in some political community is a basic right from the point of view of dignity and the protection of one’s interests. Due to their unique political predicament, 1951 Geneva Convention Refugees are a special category of non-citizen residents. They are unable to participate in elections of their state of origin, do not enjoy its diplomatic protection and consular assistance abroad, and – most fundamentally – are unable or unwilling, owing to a well-founded fear of persecution, to return to it; thus, they are in limbo for a potentially protracted period. Refugees, too, deserve to have a place in the world in the Arendtian sense, where their opinions are significant and their actions are effective. Their state of asylum is, for the time being, the only community in which there is any realistic prospect of political participation on their part.

Selectivity in the mechanism of action of antimicrobial mastoparan peptide Polybia-MP1

Many potent antimicrobial peptides also present hemolytic activity, an undesired collateral effect for the therapeutic application. Unlike other mastoparan peptides, Polybia-MP1 (IDWKKLLDAAKQIL), obtained from the venom of the social wasp Polybia paulista, is highly selective of bacterial cells. The study of its mechanism of action demonstrated that it permeates vesicles at a greater rate of leakage on the anionic over the zwitterionic, impaired by the presence of cholesterol or cardiolipin; its lytic activity is characterized by a threshold peptide to lipid molar ratio that depends on the phospholipid composition of the vesicles. At these particular threshold concentrations, the apparent average pore number is distinctive between anionic and zwitterionic vesicles, suggesting that pores are similarly formed depending on the ionic character of the bilayer. To prospect the molecular reasons for the strengthened selectivity in Polybia-MP1 and its absence in Mastoparan-X, MD simulations were carried out. Both peptides presented amphipathic alpha-helical structures, as previously observed in Circular Dichroism spectra, with important differences in the extension and stability of the helix; their backbone solvation analysis also indicate a different profile, suggesting that the selectivity of Polybia-MP1 is a consequence of the distribution of the charged and polar residues along the peptide helix, and on how the solvent molecules orient themselves according to these electrostatic interactions. We suggest that the lack of hemolytic activity of Polybia-MP1 is due to the presence and position of Asp residues that enable the equilibrium of electrostatic interactions and favor the preference for the more hydrophilic environment.

Correlation of the highest-energy cosmic rays with the positions of nearby active galactic nuclei

Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory provide evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of the cosmic rays with the highest-energies, which are correlated with the positions of relatively nearby active galactic nuclei (AGN) [Pierre Auger Collaboration, Science 318 (2007) 938]. The correlation has maximum significance for cosmic rays with energy greater than similar to 6 x 10(19) eV and AGN at a distance less than similar to 75 Mpc. We have confirmed the anisotropy at a confidence level of more than 99% through a test with parameters specified a priori, using an independent data set. The observed correlation is compatible with the hypothesis that cosmic rays with the highest-energies originate from extra-galactic sources close enough so that their flux is not significantly attenuated by interaction with the cosmic background radiation (the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz`min effect). The angular scale of the correlation observed is a few degrees, which suggests a predominantly light composition unless the magnetic fields are very weak outside the thin disk of our galaxy. Our present data do not identify AGN as the sources of cosmic rays unambiguously, and other candidate sources which are distributed as nearby AGN are not ruled out. We discuss the prospect of unequivocal identification of individual sources of the highest-energy cosmic rays within a few years of continued operation of the Pierre Auger Observatory. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.