An analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza occurrence in Vietnam using national surveillance data

The objectives of this study were to describe the spatio-temporal pattern of an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Vietnam and to identify potential risk factors for the introduction and maintenance of infection within the poultry population. The results indicate that during the time period 2004–early 2006 a sequence of three epidemic waves occurred in Vietnam as distinct spatial and temporal clusters. The risk of outbreak occurrence increased with a greater percentage of rice paddy fields, increasing domestic water bird and chicken density. It increased with reducing distance to higher population density aggregations, and in the third epidemic wave with increasing percentage of aquaculture. The findings indicate that agri-livestock farming systems involving domestic water birds and rice production in river delta areas are important for the maintenance and spread of infection. While the government’s control measures appear to have been effective in the South and Central parts of Vietnam, it is likely that in the North of Vietnam the vaccination campaign led to transmission of infection which was subsequently brought under control.

Cortical local and long-range synchronization interplay in human absence seizure initiation

Brain activity relies on transient, fluctuating interactions between segregated neuronal populations. Synchronization within a single and between distributed neuronal clusters reflects the dynamics of these cooperative patterns. Thus absence epilepsy can be used as a model for integrated, large-scale investigation of the emergence of pathological collective dynamics in the brain. Indeed, spike-wave discharges (SWD) of an absence seizure are thought to reflect abnormal cortical hypersynchronization. In this paper, we address two questions: how and where do SWD arise in the human brain? Therefore, we explored the spatio-temporal dynamics of interactions within and between widely distributed cortical sites using magneto-encephalographic recordings of spontaneous absence seizures. We then extracted, from their time-frequency analysis, local synchronization of cortical sources and long-range synchronization linking distant sites. Our analyses revealed a reproducible sequence of 1) long-range desynchronization, 2) increased local synchronization and 3) increased long-range synchronization. Although both local and long-range synchronization displayed different spatio-temporal profiles, their cortical projection within an initiation time window overlap and reveal a multifocal fronto-central network. These observations contradict the classical view of sudden generalized synchronous activities in absence epilepsy. Furthermore, they suggest that brain states transition may rely on multi-scale processes involving both local and distant interactions.

Modeling Calcium Concentration and Biochemical Reactions

Almost all regions of the brain receive one or more neuromodulatory inputs, and disrupting these inputs produces deficits in neuronal function. Neuromodulators act through intracellular second messenger pathways to influence the electrical properties of neurons, integration of synaptic inputs, spatio-temporal firing dynamics of neuronal networks, and, ultimately, systems behavior. Second messengers pathways consist of series of bimolecular reactions, enzymatic reactions, and diffusion. Calcium is the second messenger molecule with the most effectors, and thus is highly regulated by buffers, pumps and intracellular stores. Computational modeling provides an innovative, yet practical method to evaluate the spatial extent, time course and interaction among second messenger pathways, and the interaction of second messengers with neuron electrical properties. These processes occur both in compartments where the number of molecules are large enough to describe reactions deterministically (e.g. cell body), and in compartments where the number of molecules is small enough that reactions occur stochastically (e.g. spines). – In this tutorial, I explain how to develop models of second messenger pathways and calcium dynamics. The first part of the tutorial explains the equations used to model bimolecular reactions, enzyme reactions, calcium release channels, calcium pumps and diffusion. The second part explains some of the GENESIS, Kinetikit and Chemesis objects that implement the appropriate equations. In depth explanation of calcium and second messenger models is provided by reviewing code, both in XPP, Chemesis and Kinetikit, that implements simple models of calcium dynamics and second messenger cascades.

Comparison of the effects of the alpha-2 agonists detomidine, romifidine and xylazine on nociceptive withdrawal reflex and temporal summation in horses

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate and compare the antinociceptive effects of the three alpha-2 agonists, detomidine, romifidine and xylazine at doses considered equipotent for sedation, using the nociceptive withdrawal reflex (NWR) and temporal summation model in standing horses. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective, blinded, randomized cross-over study. ANIMALS: Ten healthy adult horses weighing 527-645 kg and aged 11-21 years old. METHODS: Electrical stimulation was applied to the digital nerves to evoke NWR and temporal summation in the left thoracic limb and pelvic limb of each horse. Electromyographic reflex activity was recorded from the common digital extensor and the cranial tibial muscles. After baseline measurements a single bolus dose of detomidine, 0.02 mg kg(-1), romifidine 0.08 mg kg(-1), or xylazine, 1 mg kg(-1), was administered intravenously (IV). Determinations of NWR and temporal summation thresholds were repeated at 10, 20, 30, 40, 60, 70, 90, 100, 120 and 130 minutes after test-drug administration alternating the thoracic limb and the pelvic limb. Depth of sedation was assessed before measurements at each time point. Behavioural reaction was observed and recorded following each stimulation. RESULTS: The administration of detomidine, romifidine and xylazine significantly increased the current intensities necessary to evoke NWR and temporal summation in thoracic limbs and pelvic limbs of all horses compared with baseline. Xylazine increased NWR thresholds over baseline values for 60 minutes, while detomidine and romifidine increased NWR thresholds over baseline for 100 and 120 minutes, respectively. Temporal summation thresholds were significantly increased for 40, 70 and 130 minutes after xylazine, detomidine and romifidine, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Detomidine, romifidine and xylazine, administered IV at doses considered equipotent for sedation, significantly increased NWR and temporal summation thresholds, used as a measure of antinociceptive activity. The extent of maximal increase of NWR and temporal summation thresholds was comparable, while the duration of action was drug-specific.

From Broadstone to Zackenberg

Ecological networks are typically complex constructions of species and their interactions. During the last decade, the study of networks has moved from static to dynamic analyses, and has attained a deeper insight into their internal structure, heterogeneity, and temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we review, discuss and suggest research lines in the study of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of networks and their hierarchical nature. We use case study data from two well-characterized model systems (the food web in Broadstone Stream in England and the pollination network at Zackenberg in Greenland), which are complemented with additional information from other studies. We focus upon eight topics: temporal dynamic space-for-time substitutions linkage constraints habitat borders network modularity individual-based networks invasions of networks and super networks that integrate different network types. Few studies have explicitly examined temporal change in networks, and we present examples that span from daily to decadal change: a common pattern that we see is a stable core surrounded by a group of dynamic, peripheral species, which, in pollinator networks enter the web via preferential linkage to the most generalist species. To some extent, temporal and spatial scales are interchangeable (i.e. networks exhibit ‘ergodicity’) and we explore how space-for-time substitutions can be used in the study of networks. Network structure is commonly constrained by phenological uncoupling (a temporal phenomenon), abundance, body size and population structure. Some potential links are never observed, that is they are ‘forbidden’ (fully constrained) or ‘missing’ (a sampling effect), and their absence can be just as ecologically significant as their presence. Spatial habitat borders can add heterogeneity to network structure, but their importance has rarely been studied: we explore how habitat generalization can be related to other resource dimensions. Many networks are hierarchically structured, with modules forming the basic building blocks, which can result in self-similarity. Scaling down from networks of species reveals another, finer-grained level of individual-based organization, the ecological consequences of which have yet to be fully explored. The few studies of individual-based ecological networks that are available suggest the potential for large intraspecific variance and, in the case of food webs, strong size-structuring. However, such data are still scarce and more studies are required to link individual-level and species-level networks. Invasions by alien species can be tracked by following the topological ‘career’ of the invader as it establishes itself within a network, with potentially important implications for conservation biology. Finally, by scaling up to a higher level of organization, it is possible to combine different network types (e.g. food webs and mutualistic networks) to form super networks, and this new approach has yet to be integrated into mainstream ecological research. We conclude by listing a set of research topics that we see as emerging candidates for ecological network studies in the near future.

A climatology of the diurnal variations of stratospheric and mesospheric ozone over Bern, Switzerland

The ground-based radiometer GROMOS, stationed in Bern (47.95° N, 7.44° E), Switzerland, has a unique dataset: it obtains ozone profiles from November 1994 to present with a time resolution of 30 min and equal quality during night- and daytime. Here, we derive a monthly climatology of the daily ozone cycle from 17 yr of GROMOS observation. We present the diurnal ozone variation of the stratosphere and mesosphere. Characterizing the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone is important for correct trend estimates of the ozone layer derived from satellite observations. The diurnal ozone cycle from GROMOS is compared to two models: The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and the Hamburg Model of Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA). Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS) ozone data, from night- and daytime overpasses over Bern, have also been included in the comparison. Generally, observation and models show good qualitative agreement: in the lower mesosphere, daytime ozone is for both GROMOS and models around 25% less than nighttime ozone (reference is 22:30–01:30). In the stratosphere, ozone reaches its maximum in the afternoon showing values several percent larger than the midnight value. It is important that diurnal ozone variations of this order are taken into account when merging different data sets for the derivation of long-term ozone trends in the stratosphere. Further, GROMOS and models indicate a seasonal behavior of daily ozone variations in the stratosphere with a larger afternoon maximum during daytime in summer than in winter. At 0.35 hPa, observations from GROMOS and Aura/MLS show a seasonal pattern in diurnal ozone variations with larger relative amplitudes during daytime in winter (−25 ± 5%) than in summer (−18 ± 4%) (compared to mean values around midnight). For the first time, a time series of the diurnal variations in ozone is presented: 17 yr of GROMOS data show strong interannual variations in the diurnal ozone cycle for both the stratosphere and the mesosphere. There are some indications that strong temperature tides can suppress the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone via the anticorrelation of temperature and ozone. That means the spatio-temporal variability of solar thermal tides seems to affect the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone.

A climatology of the diurnal variations of stratospheric and mesospheric ozone over Bern, Switzerland

The ground-based radiometer GROMOS, stationed in Bern (47.95° N, 7.44° E), Switzerland, has a unique dataset: it obtains ozone profiles from November 1994 to present with a time resolution of 30 min and equal quality during night- and daytime. Here, we derive a monthly climatology of the daily ozone cycle from 17 yr of GROMOS observation. We present the diurnal ozone variation of the stratosphere and mesosphere. Characterizing the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone is important for correct trend estimates of the ozone layer derived from satellite observations. The diurnal ozone cycle from GROMOS is compared to two models: The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and the Hamburg Model of Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA). Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS) ozone data, from night- and daytime overpasses over Bern, have also been included in the comparison. Generally, observation and models show good qualitative agreement: in the lower mesosphere, daytime ozone is for both GROMOS and models around 25% less than nighttime ozone (reference is 22:30–01:30). In the stratosphere, ozone reaches its maximum in the afternoon showing values several percent larger than the midnight value. It is important that diurnal ozone variations of this order are taken into account when merging different data sets for the derivation of long-term ozone trends in the stratosphere. Further, GROMOS and models indicate a seasonal behavior of daily ozone variations in the stratosphere with a larger afternoon maximum during daytime in summer than in winter. At 0.35 hPa, observations from GROMOS and Aura/MLS show a seasonal pattern in diurnal ozone variations with larger relative amplitudes during daytime in winter (−25 ± 5%) than in summer (−18 ± 4%) (compared to mean values around midnight). For the first time, a time series of the diurnal variations in ozone is presented: 17 yr of GROMOS data show strong interannual variations in the diurnal ozone cycle for both the stratosphere and the mesosphere. There are some indications that strong temperature tides can suppress the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone via the anticorrelation of temperature and ozone. That means the spatio-temporal variability of solar thermal tides seems to affect the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone.

Matrix models for quantifying competitive intransitivity from species abundance data

In a network of competing species, a competitive intransitivity occurs when the ranking of competitive abilities does not follow a linear hierarchy (A > B > C but C > A). A variety of mathematical models suggests that intransitive networks can prevent or slow down competitive exclusion and maintain biodiversity by enhancing species coexistence. However, it has been difficult to assess empirically the relative importance of intransitive competition because a large number of pairwise species competition experiments are needed to construct a competition matrix that is used to parameterize existing models. Here we introduce a statistical framework for evaluating the contribution of intransitivity to community structure using species abundance matrices that are commonly generated from replicated sampling of species assemblages. We provide metrics and analytical methods for using abundance matrices to estimate species competition and patch transition matrices by using reverse-engineering and a colonization-competition model. These matrices provide complementary metrics to estimate the degree of intransitivity in the competition network of the sampled communities. Benchmark tests reveal that the proposed methods could successfully detect intransitive competition networks, even in the absence of direct measures of pairwise competitive strength. To illustrate the approach, we analyzed patterns of abundance and biomass of five species of necrophagous Diptera and eight species of their hymenopteran parasitoids that co-occur in beech forests in Germany. We found evidence for a strong competitive hierarchy within communities of flies and parasitoids. However, for parasitoids, there was a tendency towards increasing intransitivity in higher weight classes, which represented larger resource patches. These tests provide novel methods for empirically estimating the degree of intransitivity in competitive networks from observational datasets. They can be applied to experimental measures of pairwise species interactions, as well as to spatio-temporal samples of assemblages in homogenous environments or environmental gradients.

A 49 year hindcast of surface winds over the Iberian Peninsula

The use of hindcast climatic data is quite extended for multiple applications. However, this approach needs the support of a validation process to allow its drawbacks and, therefore, confidence levels to be assessed. In this work, the strategy relies on an hourly wind database resulting from a dynamical downscaling experiment, with a spatial resolution of 10 km, covering the Iberian Peninsula (IP), driven by the ERA40 reanalysis (1959–2001) extended by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) analysis (2002–2007) and comprising two main steps. Initially, the skill of the simulation is evaluated comparing the quality-tested observational database (Lorente-Plazas et al., 2014) at local and regional scales. The results show that the model is able to portray the main features of the wind over the IP: annual cycles, wind roses, spatial and temporal variability, as well as the response to different circulation types. In addition, there is a significant added value of the simulation with respect to driving conditions, especially in regions with a complex orography. However, some problems are evident, the major drawback being the systematic overestimation of the wind speed, which is mainly attributed to a missrepresentation of frictional forces. The model skill is also lower along the Mediterranean coast and for the Pyrenees. In a second phase, the high spatio-temporal resolution of the pseudo-real wind database is used to explore the limitations of the observational database. It is shown that missing values do not affect the characterisation of the wind climate over the IP, while the length of the observational period (6 years) is sufficient for most regions, with only a few exceptions. The spatial distribution of the observational sampling schemes should be enhanced to improve the correct assessment of all IP wind regimes, particularly in some mountainous areas.

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

Snow-pit measurements on Atka Bay landfast sea ice during ANT-Land 2012/2013 season

Up to now, snow cover on Antarctic sea ice and its impact on radar backscatter, particularly after the onset of freeze/thaw processes, are not well understood. Here we present a combined analysis of in situ observations of snow properties from the landfast sea ice in Atka Bay, Antarctica, and high-resolution TerraSAR-X backscatter data, for the transition from austral spring (November 2012) to summer (January 2013). The physical changes in the seasonal snow cover during that time are reflected in the evolution of TerraSAR-X backscatter. We are able to explain 76-93% of the spatio-temporal variability of the TerraSAR-X backscatter signal with up to four snowpack parameters with a root-mean-squared error of 0.87-1.62 dB, using a simple multiple linear model. Over the complete study, and especially after the onset of early-melt processes and freeze/thaw cycles, the majority of variability in the backscatter is influenced by changes in snow/ice interface temperature, snow depth and top-layer grain size. This suggests it may be possible to retrieve snow physical properties over Antarctic sea ice from X-band SAR backscatter.

Snow depths of volcanic events and accumulation rates of firn cores from the IPY traverse, Antarctica

Volcanic signatures in ice-core records provide an excellent means to date the cores and obtain information about accumulation rates. From several ice cores it is thus possible to extract a spatio-temporal accumulation pattern. We show records of electrical conductivity and sulfur from 13 firn cores from the Norwegian-USA scientific traverse during the International Polar Year 2007-2009 (IPY) through East Antarctica. Major volcanic eruptions are identified and used to assess century-scale accumulation changes. The largest changes seem to occur in the most recent decades with accumulation over the period 1963-2007/08 being up to 25% different from the long-term record. There is no clear overall trend, some sites show an increase in accumulation over the period 1963 to present while others show a decrease. Almost all of the sites above 3200 m above sea level (asl) suggest a decrease. These sites also show a significantly lower accumulation value than large-scale assessments both for the period 1963 to present and for the long-term mean at the respective drill sites. The spatial accumulation distribution is influenced mainly by elevation and distance to the ocean (continentality), as expected. Ground-penetrating radar data around the drill sites show a spatial variability within 10-20% over several tens of kilometers, indicating that our drill sites are well representative for the area around them. Our results are important for large-scale assessments of Antarctic mass balance and model validation.