The ratio bias phenomenon: fact or artifact?

The ratio bias—according to which individuals prefer to bet on probabilities expressed as a ratio of large numbers to normatively equivalent or superior probabilities expressed as a ratio of small numbers—has recently gained momentum, with researchers especially in health economics emphasizing the policy importance of the phenomenon. Although the bias has been replicated several times, some doubts remain about its economic significance. Our two experiments show that the bias disappears once order effects are excluded, and once salient and dominant incentives are provided. This holds true for both choice and valuation tasks. Also, adding context to the decision problem does not alter this finding. No ratio bias could be found in between-subject tests either, which leads us to the conclusion that the policy relevance of the phenomenon is doubtful at best.

Scoring rules and competitive behavior in best value construction auctions

This paper examines the extent to which engineers can influence the competitive behavior of bidders in Best Value or multi-attribute construction auctions, where both the (dollar) bid and technical non-price criteria are scored according to a scoring rule. From a sample of Spanish construction auctions with a variety of bid scoring rules, it is found that bidders are influenced by the auction rules in significant and predictable ways. The bid score weighting, bid scoring formula and abnormally low bid criterion are variables likely to influence the competitiveness of bidders in terms of both their aggressive/conservative bidding and concentration/dispersion of bids. Revealing the influence of the bid scoring rules and their magnitude on bidders’ competitive behavior opens the door for the engineer to condition bidder competitive behavior in such a way as to provide the balance needed to achieve the owner’s desired strategic outcomes.

La(2-x)Ce(x)Cu(1-y)Zn(y)O(4) perovskites for high temperature water-gas shift reaction

The performance of La(2-x)Ce(x)Cu(1-y)Zn(y)O(4) perovskites as catalysts for the high temperature water-gas shift reaction (H T-W G S R) was investigated. The catalysts were characterized by EDS, XRD, BET surface area, TPR, and XANES. The results showed that all the perovskites exhibited the La(2)CuO(4) orthorhombic structure, so the Pechini method is suitable for the preparation of pure perovskite. However, the La(1.90)Ce(0.10)CuO(4) perovskite alone, when calcined at 350/700 degrees C, also showed a (La(0.935)Ce(0.065))(2)CuO(4) perovskite with tetragonal structure, which produced a surface area higher than the other perovskites. The perovskites that exhibited the best catalytic performance were those calcined at 350/700 degrees C and, among these, La(1.90)Ce(0.10)CuO(4) was outstanding, probably because of the high surface area associated with the presence of the (La(0.935)Ce(0.065))(2)CuO(4) perovskite with tetragonal structure and orthorhombic La(2)CuO(4) phase.

CuO and CuO-ZnO catalysts supported on CeO(2) and CeO(2)-LaO(3) for low temperature water-gas shift reaction

This paper describes an investigation on CuO and CuO-ZnO catalysts supported on CeO(2) and CeO(2)-La(2)O(3) oxides, which were designed for the low temperature water-gas shift reaction (WGSR). Bulk catalysts were prepared by co-precipitation of metal nitrates and characterized by energy-dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), X-ray diffraction (XRD), surface area (by the BET method), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and in situ X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES). The catalysts` activities were tested in the forward WGSR, and the CuO/CeO(2) catalyst presented the best catalytic performance. The reasons for this are twofold: (1) the presence of Zn inhibits the interaction between Cu and Ce ions, and (2) lanthanum oxide forms a solid solution with cerium oxide, which will cause a decrease in the surface area of the catalysts. Also the CuO/CeO(2) catalyst presented the highest Cu content on the surface, which could influence its catalytic behavior. Additionally, the Cu and Cu(1+) species could influence the catalytic activity via a reduction-oxidation mechanism, corroborating to the best catalytic performance of the Cu/Ce catalyst. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The best are never normal : exploring the distribution of firm performance

Competitive Strategy literature predicts three different mechanisms of performance generation, thus distinguishing between firms that have competitive advantage, firms that have competitive disadvantage or firms that have neither. Nonetheless, previous works in the field have fitted a single normal distribution to model firm performance. Here, we develop a new approach that distinguishes among performance generating mechanisms and allows the identification of firms with competitive advantage or disadvantage. Theorizing on the positive feedback loops by which firms with competitive advantage have facilitated access to acquire new resources, we proposed a distribution we believe data on firm performance should follow. We illustrate our model by assessing its fit to data on firm performance, addressing its theoretical implications and comparing it to previous works.

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Beyond ‘best practices': the international regulation of capital markets

It is widely acknowledged that there is considerable international pressure for international ‘best practices’ to be adopted via national legislation. This would occur either by means of model laws or through the passing of country specific legislation that closely replicates foreign legal formats, administrative rules, and or regulation. These attempts to spread the implementation of ‘best practices’ have gained importance in the international debate due to the liberalization of international capital flows. The oversight, country reports, and technical assistance carried out by international organizations along with the growing internationalization of investors have also contributed to this growing pressure. In this respect, due to the constant evolution of transactions and the end objective of making sure that capital markets are developed with just rules, structures, and methods, this article looks to analyze the adoption of standardized models of capital market regulation. Furthermore it looks to examine the motivation and interest of states and other ‘stakeholders’ at the international level.

A cláusula de melhores esforços (best efforts) na prática jurídica brasileira: uma nova perspectiva

A utilização da cláusula de melhores esforços, ou best efforts, é prática comum do empresariado e advogados nacionais. Este trabalho realiza um levantamento a fim de demonstrar a alta incidência em acordos sofisticados entre acionistas de companhias abertas brasileiras. Tal inclusão tem fortes motivos econômicos, a justificar o reconhecimento e interpretação pelo aplicador do direito nacional. O padrão de conduta dessa obrigação de meio deve ser analisado por critérios distintos, por meio de elementos subjetivos e objetivos, bem como à luz do contexto social e usos e costumes relacionados, baseados em normas e princípios de direito privado amplamente aceitos. A escassa jurisprudência sobre o tema bem como a já consolidada jurisprudência norte-americana contribuem para o melhor entendimento sobre a natureza jurídica e o modelo de interpretação de conduta a ser aplicado, diferenciando a obrigação de melhores esforços dos deveres decorrentes da boa-fé objetiva. Entre as conclusões, pode-se mencionar que a cláusula de melhores esforços não deve ser igualada aos deveres de boa-fé ou a um mero dever moral. Seu reconhecimento legal como padrão de conduta distinto, apurado conforme cada caso, deve ser amparado pelo ordenamento jurídico nacional