Modelling impacts and recovery in benthic communities exposed to localised high CO2

Regulations pertaining to carbon dioxide capture with offshore storage (CCS) require an understanding of the potential localised environmental impacts and demonstrably suitable monitoring practices. This study uses a marine ecosystem model to examine a comprehensive range of hypothetical CO2 leakage scenarios, quantifying both impact and recovery time within the benthic system. Whilst significant mortalities and long recovery times were projected for the larger and longer term scenarios, shorter-term or low level exposures lead to reduced projected impacts. This suggests that efficient monitoring and leak mitigation strategies, coupled with appropriate selection of storage sites can effectively limit concerns regarding localised environmental impacts from CCS. The feedbacks and interactions between physiological and ecological responses simulated reveal that benthic responses to CO2 leakage could be complex. This type of modelling investigation can aid the understanding of impact potential, the role of benthic community recovery and inform the design of baseline and monitoring surveys.

Climate-Driven Range Shifts Within Benthic Habitats Across a Marine Biogeographic Transition Zone.

Anthropogenic climate change is causing unprecedented rapid responses in marine communities, with species across many different taxonomic groups showing faster shifts in biogeographic ranges than in any other ecosystem. Spatial and temporal trends for many marine species are difficult to quantify, however, due to the lack of long-term datasets across complete geographical distributions and the occurrence of small-scale variability from both natural and anthropogenic drivers. Understanding these changes requires a multidisciplinary approach to bring together patterns identified within long-term datasets and the processes driving those patterns using biologically relevant mechanistic information to accurately attribute cause and effect. This must include likely future biological responses, and detection of the underlying mechanisms in order to scale up from the organismal level to determine how communities and ecosystems are likely to respond across a range of future climate change scenarios. Using this multidisciplinary approach will improve the use of robust science to inform the development of fit-for-purpose policy to effectively manage marine environments in this rapidly changing world.

Climate-Driven Range Shifts Within Benthic Habitats Across a Marine Biogeographic Transition Zone.

Anthropogenic climate change is causing unprecedented rapid responses in marine communities, with species across many different taxonomic groups showing faster shifts in biogeographic ranges than in any other ecosystem. Spatial and temporal trends for many marine species are difficult to quantify, however, due to the lack of long-term datasets across complete geographical distributions and the occurrence of small-scale variability from both natural and anthropogenic drivers. Understanding these changes requires a multidisciplinary approach to bring together patterns identified within long-term datasets and the processes driving those patterns using biologically relevant mechanistic information to accurately attribute cause and effect. This must include likely future biological responses, and detection of the underlying mechanisms in order to scale up from the organismal level to determine how communities and ecosystems are likely to respond across a range of future climate change scenarios. Using this multidisciplinary approach will improve the use of robust science to inform the development of fit-for-purpose policy to effectively manage marine environments in this rapidly changing world.

An investigation on benthic macro-invertebrates species diversity as bio-indicators of environmental health in Bahrekan Bay

The purpose of this study was to evaluate benthic macro-invertebrates species diversity as bio-indicators of environmental health in Bahrekan bay (in the Northwest of Persian gulf). Seasonal sediments sampling along 5 transects, 15 stations at 4 replicates (3 replicates for macrobenthos and 1 replicate for sediment analysis) was done from November 2008 to August 2009 by 0.025 m2 Van Veen grab sampler. Physical and chemical parameters of water, grain size analysis, %TOM and Ni and Va concentrations of sediments were assessed through four seasons. Macrobenthic communities after staining and sorting, using stereomicroscope have been identified. Their density in every station and every season calculated. For using of AMBI index, identified macrobenthos according to their sensitivity to stressors and pollutants, categorized into 5 ecological groups and for using of Bentix index categorized into 3 ecological groups. The diversity indices and indicators that showing ecological status were calculated. Also, the differences between physiochemical parameters of sea water, sediments TOM% and grain size, diversity indices in stations and seasons were recorded (P=0.05). The correlation coefficient determined for all parameters. According to the results of grain size analysis, bottom grain size categorized as clay. Highest percent of TOM was belong to autumn (36.39±.075) and lowest was belong to summer (19.01±0.51). Also there was positive correlation (p=0.01) between %TOM and %Clay that showing sediments with lowest size containing highest amounts of organic matters. Ni concentrations in sediments (87.80±21.25)mg/kg showed the amounts over than standards levels but Va concentrations in sediments (53.54±17.60)mg/kg showed the amounts lower than standards level. The highest density of macrobenthos was recorded for summer (8254±485) N/m2 and the lowest density was recorded for spring (3775±172)N/m2. The highest annual density was belong to mollusca (81%) and then polycheates (13%), Others (4%) and crustaceae (2%). The highest diversity was recorded for winter (Simpson index: 0.13±0.01, H':3.47±0.06) and the lowest diversity recorded for autumn (Simpson index: 0.16±0.01, H':3.17±0.06). in all stations, the highest amount of Shanon index was belong to T2S3 station in summer (4.11± 0.32) and the lowest amount was belong to T1S1 station in autumn (2.42± 0.41). The annual mean of Simpson diversity index: (0.15 ±0.04) and Shanon diversity index (3.36±0.03), illustrated that macrobenthos in Bahrekan bay have a good variation. The results of Brilluin and N1 (Number of equally common species) indices confirm the results of Simpson index. For study on the regions that diversity has a little difference between stations, with use of Ni index, the degree of differences could be better ono recognizable. According to the results of AMBI index in all seasons (autumn: 0.46±0.03; summer: 0.22±0.01; annual mean:0.31±0.01) and standards (0.0benthic community health: normal and ecological status: high; 0.2benthic community health: impoverished; ecological status: high) ecological status for all seasons categorized in high status with dominant ecological groups I (sensitive species) but benthic community health were impoverished. The results of Bentix index in all seasons (autumn: 5.07±0.07; summer: 5.57±0.02; annual mean: 5.40±0.02) and standards (4.5

Ingestion of a bacterivorous ciliate by the oyster Crassostrea gigas: Protozoa as a trophic link between picoplankton and benthic suspension-feeders

The linked concepts of 'microbial loop' and 'protozoan trophic link' have been very well documented in filter-feeding microzooplankton such as copepods, but have not been applied to energy transfer to benthic suspension-feeding macrofauna, with the exception of the recent demonstration of heterotrophic flagellate assimilation by mussels. The oyster Crassostrea gigas obtains energy resources by filtering microalgae (similar to 5 to 100 mu m). However, in turbid estuaries, light-limited phytoplanktonic production cannot entirely account for oyster energy requirements. Conversely, picoplankters (<2 mu m), which are main effecters of coastal energy flow and matter cycling, are not efficiently retained by oyster filtration. Ciliate protozoal as both micro-sized cells (similar to 5 to 100 run) and bacteria grazers, may represent a major intermediary in trophic transfer between picoplankton and metazoa. The ciliate Uronema was intensely cultured and labelled, using the cyanobacteria Synechococcus as an auto-fluorescent biomarker. The labelled ciliates were offered as potential prey to oysters. We report here the first experimental evidence of a significant retention and ingestion of ciliates by oysters, supporting the role of protozoa as a realistic trophic link between picoplankters and filter-feeding bivalves and thus enhancing their potential importance in estuarine microbial food webs.

Benthic response to upwelling events off the SE Brazilian coast

The main aim of the present study was to evaluate and compare temporal responses of the benthos in 2 continental shelf areas (Cabo Frio and Ubatuba) off the SE Brazilian coast. In Cabo Frio (23 degrees S, 42 degrees W), the western boundary coastal upwelling of the South Atlantic Central Water (SACW) enhances primary productivity, potentially increasing food supply to the benthic communities via sinking of particulate organic carbon (POC). In contrast, POC fluxes in Ubatuba (23 degrees S, 45 degrees W) are expected to be comparatively lower because SACW remains subsurface. We analyzed the temporal and spatial input of phytodetritus (concentration of chlorophyll a in sediments) and the benthic microbial biomass (estimated by ATP-based carbon content in sediments). Median surface chlorophyll concentration was computed for all daily available SeaWiFS images (from 2001 and 2002) to follow chlorophyll a inputs. All parameters used to investigate benthic responses in the study areas showed consistently higher values in Cabo Frio than in Ubatuba. The results showed that benthic response to upwelling may last months, fueling the microbial communities in the Cabo Frio region.

Phosphoglucose isomerase variability of Cerastoderma glaucum as a model for testing the influence of environmental conditions and dispersal patterns through quantitative ecology approaches

Extreme conditions of coastal lagoons could directly modify the genetic patterns of species. The aim of this work was to investigate the influence of environmental conditions and small scale dispersal patterns on the phosphoglucose isomerase (PGI*) genetic variability of Cerastoderma glaucum from the Mar Menor coastal lagoon. For this purpose, 284 cockles were collected around the perimeter of the lagoon. Vertical polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis was used to scan for PGI* polymorphisms, giving a total of seven alleles. The spatial genetic distribution of the PGI* variability, which seems to be marked by the main circulation in the lagoon, discriminates four hydrological basins. In the central basin, a gradient of allelic composition reflects the circulation forced by the dominant winds and the main channel communicated to the open sea. This result is well supported by the salinity GAM model that defines this gradient. The other three basins are defined by the distribution of fine sand in a more complex model that tries to explain the isolation of the three sites localized inside these basins. The southern, western and northern basins show the lowest degree of interconnection and are considered the most confined areas of the Mar Menor lagoon. This situation agrees with the confinement theory for benthic assemblages in the lagoon. The greater degree of differentiation seen in the Isla del Ciervo population is probably due to recent human intervention on the nearby Marchamalo channel, which has been drained in recent years thus altering the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on the southern basin.

Feeding ecology and life-history strategy of nesting males in a fish with long parental care, Lusitanian toadfish (Halobatrachus didactylus, Batrachoididae)

The Lusitanian toadfish, Halobatrachus didactylus, like other batrachoidids, is a benthic fish species with nesting behaviour during the breeding season. During this prolonged period it engages in mating activities and remains in the nest providing parental care. It is not known whether males feed while providing parental care but it is likely that their limited mobility may restrict their diet and influence their fitness. As a consequence, egg cannibalism could occur as a life-history strategy. The aim of the present study is to ascertain the feeding behaviour of nesting males, in comparison to mature non-nesting males, and to identify potential life-history traits related to egg cannibalism. Nest-holders were sampled from artificial nests placed in an intertidal area of the Tagus estuary, only exposed during spring low tides. The diet of nest-holders was compared with that of non-nesting mature males from the same area, captured by otter trawl. The present study demonstrates that despite their constrained mobility nest-holders feed during the breeding season, although in a more opportunistic fashion than non-nesting males. Nest-holders showed a generalist feeding behaviour, with a more heterogeneous diet. Egg cannibalism was not related to male condition, paternity or brood size but showed a higher incidence early in the season when water temperatures were lower. The results suggest a possible seasonal trade-off strategy between care and energy recovery, triggered by environmental factors, where under unfavourable conditions to sustain viable eggs the male may recover energy by eating eggs, thus benefiting future reproductive success, later in the season.

Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Using information criteria to select the correct variance–covariance structure for longitudinal data in ecology

1. Ecological data sets often use clustered measurements or use repeated sampling in a longitudinal design. Choosing the correct covariance structure is an important step in the analysis of such data, as the covariance describes the degree of similarity among the repeated observations. 2. Three methods for choosing the covariance are: the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the quasi-information criterion (QIC), and the deviance information criterion (DIC). We compared the methods using a simulation study and using a data set that explored effects of forest fragmentation on avian species richness over 15 years. 3. The overall success was 80.6% for the AIC, 29.4% for the QIC and 81.6% for the DIC. For the forest fragmentation study the AIC and DIC selected the unstructured covariance, whereas the QIC selected the simpler autoregressive covariance. Graphical diagnostics suggested that the unstructured covariance was probably correct. 4. We recommend using DIC for selecting the correct covariance structure.

Elicitator : an expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology

Expert elicitation is the process of retrieving and quantifying expert knowledge in a particular domain. Such information is of particular value when the empirical data is expensive, limited, or unreliable. This paper describes a new software tool, called Elicitator, which assists in quantifying expert knowledge in a form suitable for use as a prior model in Bayesian regression. Potential environmental domains for applying this elicitation tool include habitat modeling, assessing detectability or eradication, ecological condition assessments, risk analysis, and quantifying inputs to complex models of ecological processes. The tool has been developed to be user-friendly, extensible, and facilitate consistent and repeatable elicitation of expert knowledge across these various domains. We demonstrate its application to elicitation for logistic regression in a geographically based ecological context. The underlying statistical methodology is also novel, utilizing an indirect elicitation approach to target expert knowledge on a case-by-case basis. For several elicitation sites (or cases), experts are asked simply to quantify their estimated ecological response (e.g. probability of presence), and its range of plausible values, after inspecting (habitat) covariates via GIS.

Ecology and bioprospecting

Bioprospecting is the exploration of biodiversity for new resources of social and commercial value. It is carried out by a wide range of established industries such as pharmaceuticals, manufacturing and agriculture as well as a wide range of comparatively new ones such as aquaculture, bioremediation, biomining, biomimetic engineering and nanotechnology. The benefits of bioprospecting have emerged from such a wide range of organisms and environments worldwide that it is not possible to predict what species or habitats will be critical to society, or industry, in the future. The benefits include an unexpected variety of products that include chemicals, genes, metabolic pathways, structures, materials and behaviours. These may provide physical blueprints or inspiration for new designs. Criticism aimed at bioprospecting has been addressed, in part, by international treaties and legal agreements aimed at stopping biopiracy and many activities are now funded by agencies that require capacity-building and economic benefits in host countries. Thus, much contemporary bioprospecting has multiple goals, including the conservation of biodiversity, the sustainable management of natural resources and economic development. Ecologists are involved in three vital ways: first, applying ecological principles to the discovery of new resources. In this context, natural history becomes a vast economic database. Second, carrying out field studies, most of them demographic, to help regulate the harvest of wild species. Third, emphasizing the profound importance of millions of mostly microscopic species to the global economy.