Self-organized sociopolitical interactions as the best way to achieve organized patterns in human social systems: going beyond the top-down control of classical political regimes

La monografía presenta la auto-organización sociopolítica como la mejor manera de lograr patrones organizados en los sistemas sociales humanos, dada su naturaleza compleja y la imposibilidad de las tareas computacionales de los regímenes políticos clásico, debido a que operan con control jerárquico, el cual ha demostrado no ser óptimo en la producción de orden en los sistemas sociales humanos. En la monografía se extrapola la teoría de la auto-organización en los sistemas biológicos a las dinámicas sociopolíticas humanas, buscando maneras óptimas de organizarlas, y se afirma que redes complejas anárquicas son la estructura emergente de la auto-organización sociopolítica.

Capacidades institucionales y ejecución de políticas sociales: Programas de salud y nutrición materno-infantil en Argentina y Chile (1930-2000)

Este artículo compara los programas de salud materno-infantil en Argentina y Chile, prestándole especial atención a las características institucionales de largo plazo y las tendencias neoliberales presentes en la organización de las reformas sociales de las décadas de 1980 y 1990. Objetivo: Llevar a cabo un estudio comparativo sobre las transformaciones de los programas de salud y nutrición materno-infantil, teniendo en cuenta tres aspectos conectados entre sí: las políticas sociales, las capacidades institucionales y la ejecución de políticas. Metodología: El análisis documental realizado en este artículo se enmarca en el modelo de fuerza estructural de Carmelo Mesa-Lago y en el modelo de la estructura centrada en el estado de Theda Skocpol. Conclusiones: A pesar de la relativa similitud en los lineamientos de las políticas de salud aplicadas en ambos países, los contrastes en las características institucionales a largo plazo (los programas chilenos abordaron la salud materno-infantil de forma más eficiente que los argentinos) representan la mayor parte de la variación en el proceso general de aplicación de las reformas y el desempeño de las políticas de salud materna e infantil.

Estado situacional de los modelos basados en agentes y su impacto en la investigación organizacional

En un mundo hiperconectado, dinámico y cargado de incertidumbre como el actual, los métodos y modelos analíticos convencionales están mostrando sus limitaciones. Las organizaciones requieren, por tanto, herramientas útiles que empleen tecnología de información y modelos de simulación computacional como mecanismos para la toma de decisiones y la resolución de problemas. Una de las más recientes, potentes y prometedoras es el modelamiento y la simulación basados en agentes (MSBA). Muchas organizaciones, incluidas empresas consultoras, emplean esta técnica para comprender fenómenos, hacer evaluación de estrategias y resolver problemas de diversa índole. Pese a ello, no existe (hasta donde conocemos) un estado situacional acerca del MSBA y su aplicación a la investigación organizacional. Cabe anotar, además, que por su novedad no es un tema suficientemente difundido y trabajado en Latinoamérica. En consecuencia, este proyecto pretende elaborar un estado situacional sobre el MSBA y su impacto sobre la investigación organizacional.

Niveles de desarrollo y uso de una innovación por parte de los profesores : el programa de integración.

Conocer el desarrollo del Programa de Integración de Alumnos con Necesidades Educativas Especiales en Murcia y en el ciclo inicial de la EGB, partiendo y utilizando las perspectivas de los profesores como eje de análisis. Se utiliza un modelo que goza de suficiente reconocimiento, respaldo teórico y desarrollo práctico, el Concerns Based Aproach Model (CBAM) de Hall, Walace y Dosset(1973). El modelo, globalmente considerado, permite analizar los diferentes aspectos de los procesos de innovación y del cambio educativo como un proceso en el que los docentes, y su particular implicación en el proceso, tienen un papel esencial. Hipótesis general: dado un perfil de cambio determinado ¿cuál es el grado de desarrollo del programa de integración entre los profesores que están llevándolo a cabo en el ciclo inicial de la EGB en los centros educativos de la Región de Murcia?. El objetivo es verificar y comprobar en qué medida ese perfil está suficientemente asumido, claro y desarrollado por los profesores. Población 245 profesores en contacto con los alumnos del Programa de Integración, de ellos, 125 trabajan en el ciclo inicial y 84 cumplimentaron el cuestionario y formaron parte de la muestra (71, 19 del total). Elaboración del marco teórico: el cambio educativo, el modelo CBAM utilizado, el Plan de Integración del MEC, el Programa de Integración en la Región de Murcia. Estado de la Cuestión. Elaboración y validación de instrumentos de recogida de información (cuestionarios de trabajo y entrevistas). Tipo de muestreo y de tratamiento de la información (análisis factorial, cluster). Análisis cualitativo de los datos. Análisis y comentario a las entrevistas. Conclusiones. 1. Con respecto a las perspectivas de los profesores existe un acuerdo notable en la adecuación de las intenciones que guían el Programa, aunque se juzgue menos favorablemente la realización y la práctica de las mismas; 2. Escasa definición de los elementos característicos del perfil de innovación del programa; 3. Importante implicación personal por parte de los profesores. El trabajo ofrece evidencias y contribuye a clarificar, desde la utilización de un modelo de análisis determinado (CBAM), cómo se está desarrollando un programa de innovación eucativa y cuáles son algunas de las circunstancias y aspectos que se ponen más de relieve en estos procesos.

El desarrollo de la Reforma LOGSE en la enseñanza de las ciencias : estudio de la Educación Secundaria Obligatoria en la Región de Murcia.

Analizar las programaciones didácticas de los departamentos de los institutos de secundaria para indagar cómo se había traducido la LOGSE en los diferentes centros educativos de la región en lo referido a la selección, secuenciación y organización de los contenidos y criterios de evaluación, así como las concepciones generales sobre la ciencia y su enseñanza, es decir, las bases teóricas que manejaron e interpretaron. . Programaciones didácticas del curso 2001/02 de los departamentos que imparten el Área de Ciencias de la Naturaleza de ESO (física, química y ciencias naturales) correspondientes a veinte institutos de la Región de Murcia. Cinco libros de texto de diversas editoriales (ECIR, McGraw Hill, Editex, Bruño y SM) y 20 profesores de los institutos seleccionados. Plantea cuatro problemas relacionados con el desarrollo de la Reforma LOGSE en lo referido a la enseñanza de las ciencias en la etapa de Secundaria Obligatoria y a su puesta en práctica docente a través de la planificación de la enseñanza, los libros de texto seleccionados y la práctica que declaran. En un primer momento se ha analizado las aportaciones a este ámbito de investigación centradas en tres aspectos: el proceso reformador, el marco innovador de la enseñanza y la investigación sobre la puesta en marcha de las propuestas curriculares. Se ha utilizado un protocolo de análisis para cada uno de los problemas planteados en la investigación. Para el primero de ellos se ha adaptado los elementos constitutivos del Concerns Based Adoption Model (CBAM: modelo de adopción basado en las preocupaciones del profesorado de Bolívar y Fernández, 1994). Para el segundo se han utilizado las programaciones analizando los contenidos por bloques. Para el tercero se ha seleccionado una unidad didáctica: sistemas materiales - constitución de la materia, en los cinco libros de texto seleccionados y para el último se ha confeccionado un cuestionario para la entrevista. Investigación descriptiva - interpretativa. Seguimiento de los planteamientos teóricos en programaciones y secuencias formativas, materiales didácticos y declaraciones de intenciones docentes. Entre los resultados: 1. Los aspectos innovadores de la Reforma son: la concepción constructivista y procesal de la ciencia de la que se deriva las concepciones de la enseñanza y las representaciones de los alumnos para promover el cambio, un currículum abierto y flexible, objetivos planteados en términos de capacidades, diversificación de contenidos, papel activo y participativo del alumno, evaluación orientativa y formativa. Con respecto al problema principal planteado en esta investigación ( hasta donde se había o no implantado la propuesta innovadora de la Reforma) la respuesta es que la distancia entre el diseño y la puesta en práctica es muy grande..

An evaluation of different growth functions for describing the profile of live weight with time (age) in meat and egg strains of chicken

A total of 86 profiles from meat and egg strains of chickens (male and female) were used in this study. Different flexible growth functions were evaluated with regard to their ability to describe the relationship between live weight and age and were compared with the Gompertz and logistic equations, which have a fixed point of inflection. Six growth functions were used: Gompertz, logistic, Lopez, Richards, France, and von Bertalanffy. A comparative analysis was carried out based on model behavior and statistical performance. The results of this study confirmed the initial concern about the limitation of a fixed point of inflection, such as in the Gompertz equation. Therefore, consideration of flexible growth functions as an alternatives to the simpler equations (with a fixed point of inflection) for describing the relationship between live weight and age are recommended for the following reasons: they are easy to fit, they very often give a closer fit to data points because of their flexibility and therefore a smaller RSS value, than the simpler models, and they encompasses simpler models for the addition of an extra parameter, which is especially important when the behavior of a particular data set is not defined previously.

Trophic interactions in a changing world: modelling aboveground-belowground interactions

The rate and scale of human-driven changes can exert profound impacts on ecosystems, the species that make them up and the services they provide that sustain humanity. Given the speed at which these changes are occurring, one of society's major challenges is to coexist within ecosystems and to manage ecosystem services in a sustainable way. The effect of possible scenarios of global change on ecosystem services can be explored using ecosystem models. Such models should adequately represent ecosystem processes above and below the soil surface (aboveground and belowground) and the interactions between them. We explore possibilities to include such interactions into ecosystem models at scales that range from global to local. At the regional to global scale we suggest to expand the plant functional type concept (aggregating plants into groups according to their physiological attributes) to include functional types of aboveground-belowground interactions. At the scale of discrete plant communities, process-based and organism-oriented models could be combined into "hybrid approaches" that include organism-oriented mechanistic representation of a limited number of trophic interactions in an otherwise process - oriented approach. Under global change the density and activity of organisms determining the processes may change non-linearly and therefore explicit knowledge of the organisms and their responses should ideally be included. At the individual plant scale a common organism-based conceptual model of aboveground-belowground interactions has emerged. This conceptual model facilitates the formulation of research questions to guide experiments aiming to identify patterns that are common within, but differ between, ecosystem types and biomes. Such experiments inform modelling approaches at larger scales. Future ecosystem models should better include this evolving knowledge of common patterns of aboveground-belowground interactions. Improved ecosystem models are necessary toots to reduce the uncertainty in the information that assists us in the sustainable management of our environment in a changing world. (C) 2004 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Modeling the effects of node heterogeneity on the performance of a real grid application

The performance benefit when using Grid systems comes from different strategies, among which partitioning the applications into parallel tasks is the most important. However, in most cases the enhancement coming from partitioning is smoothed by the effect of the synchronization overhead, mainly due to the high variability of completion times of the different tasks, which, in turn, is due to the large heterogeneity of Grid nodes. For this reason, it is important to have models which capture the performance of such systems. In this paper we describe a queueing-network-based performance model able to accurately analyze Grid architectures, and we use the model to study a real parallel application executed in a Grid. The proposed model improves the classical modelling techniques and highlights the impact of resource heterogeneity and network latency on the application performance.

Discounted cash flow: accounting for uncertainty

Valuation is the process of estimating price. The methods used to determine value attempt to model the thought processes of the market and thus estimate price by reference to observed historic data. This can be done using either an explicit model, that models the worth calculation of the most likely bidder, or an implicit model, that that uses historic data suitably adjusted as a short cut to determine value by reference to previous similar sales. The former is generally referred to as the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model and the latter as the capitalisation (or All Risk Yield) model. However, regardless of the technique used, the valuation will be affected by uncertainties. Uncertainty in the comparable data available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the estimate of price. In a previous paper, we have considered the way in which uncertainty is allowed for in the capitalisation model in the UK. In this paper, we extend the analysis to look at the way in which uncertainty can be incorporated into the explicit DCF model. This is done by recognising that the input variables are uncertain and will have a probability distribution pertaining to each of them. Thus buy utilising a probability-based valuation model (using Crystal Ball) it is possible to incorporate uncertainty into the analysis and address the shortcomings of the current model. Although the capitalisation model is discussed, the paper concentrates upon the application of Crystal Ball to the Discounted Cash Flow approach.

Where Does All the Knowledge Go in Small Knowledge-intensive Professional Service Firms?

Small knowledge-intensive professional service firms are becoming increasingly important agents of innovation in construction. There is thus an urgent need to better understand the nature and process of innovation in such firms. First, this paper presents a review of the relevant literature. It is concluded that this literature is often not appropriate for SKIPSFs, as it neglects the critical role of knowledge and knowledge workers in innovation within SKIPSFs. Second, a knowledge-based innovation model is presented as a holistic, system-oriented framework to better investigate how the SKIPSFs create, manage and exploit innovation. This model is to be tested with case study research.

Groundwater residence time distributions in peatlands: implications for peat decomposition and accumulation

Peat soils consist of poorly decomposed plant detritus, preserved by low decay rates, and deep peat deposits are globally significant stores in the carbon cycle. High water tables and low soil temperatures are commonly held to be the primary reasons for low peat decay rates. However, recent studies suggest a thermodynamic limit to peat decay, whereby the slow turnover of peat soil pore water may lead to high concentrations of phenols and dissolved inorganic carbon. In sufficient concentrations, these chemicals may slow or even halt microbial respiration, providing a negative feedback to peat decay. We document the analysis of a simple, one-dimensional theoretical model of peatland pore water residence time distributions (RTDs). The model suggests that broader, thicker peatlands may be more resilient to rapid decay caused by climate change because of slow pore water turnover in deep layers. Even shallow peat deposits may also be resilient to rapid decay if rainfall rates are low. However, the model suggests that even thick peatlands may be vulnerable to rapid decay under prolonged high rainfall rates, which may act to flush pore water with fresh rainwater. We also used the model to illustrate a particular limitation of the diplotelmic (i.e., acrotelm and catotelm) model of peatland structure. Model peatlands of contrasting hydraulic structure exhibited identical water tables but contrasting RTDs. These scenarios would be treated identically by diplotelmic models, although the thermodynamic limit suggests contrasting decay regimes. We therefore conclude that the diplotelmic model be discarded in favor of model schemes that consider continuous variation in peat properties and processes.

Cultivating C4 crops in a changing climate: sugarcane in Ghana

Over the next few decades, it is expected that increasing fossil fuel prices will lead to a proliferation of energy crop cultivation initiatives. The environmental sustainability of these activities is thus a pressing issue—particularly when they take place in vulnerable regions, such as West Africa. In more general terms, the effect of increased CO2 concentrations and higher temperatures on biomass production and evapotranspiration affects the evolution of the global hydrological and carbon cycles. Investigating these processes for a C4 crop, such as sugarcane, thus provides an opportunity both to extend our understanding of the impact of climate change, and to assess our capacity to model the underpinning processes. This paper applies a process-based crop model to sugarcane in Ghana (where cultivation is planned), and the São Paulo region of Brazil (which has a well-established sugarcane industry). We show that, in the Daka River region of Ghana, provided there is sufficient irrigation, it is possible to generate approximately 75% of the yield achieved in the São Paulo region. In the final part of the study, the production of sugarcane under an idealized temperature increase climate change scenario is explored. It is shown that doubling CO2 mitigates the degree of water stress associated with a 4 °C increase in temperature.

Stable isotope and modelling evidence for CO2 as a driver of glacial–interglacial vegetation shifts in southern Africa

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is hypothesized to influence vegetation distribution via tree–grass competition, with higher CO2 concentrations favouring trees. The stable carbon isotope (δ13C) signature of vegetation is influenced by the relative importance of C4 plants (including most tropical grasses) and C3 plants (including nearly all trees), and the degree of stomatal closure – a response to aridity – in C3 plants. Compound-specific δ13C analyses of leaf-wax biomarkers in sediment cores of an offshore South Atlantic transect are used here as a record of vegetation changes in subequatorial Africa. These data suggest a large increase in C3 relative to C4 plant dominance after the Last Glacial Maximum. Using a process-based biogeography model that explicitly simulates 13C discrimination, it is shown that precipitation and temperature changes cannot explain the observed shift in δ13C values. The physiological effect of increasing CO2 concentration is decisive, altering the C3/C4 balance and bringing the simulated and observed δ13C values into line. It is concluded that CO2 concentration itself was a key agent of vegetation change in tropical southern Africa during the last glacial–interglacial transition. Two additional inferences follow. First, long-term variations in terrestrial δ13Cvalues are not simply a proxy for regional rainfall, as has sometimes been assumed. Although precipitation and temperature changes have had major effects on vegetation in many regions of the world during the period between the Last Glacial Maximum and recent times, CO2 effects must also be taken into account, especially when reconstructing changes in climate between glacial and interglacial states. Second, rising CO2 concentration today is likely to be influencing tree–grass competition in a similar way, and thus contributing to the "woody thickening" observed in savannas worldwide. This second inference points to the importance of experiments to determine how vegetation composition in savannas is likely to be influenced by the continuing rise of CO2 concentration.

Developing a knowledge management system using an ontological approach in global organisation

This paper introduces an ontology-based knowledge model for knowledge management. This model can facilitate knowledge discovery that provides users with insight for decision making. The users requiring the insight normally play different roles with different requirements in an organisation. To meet the requirements, insights are created by purposely aggregated transnational data. This involves a semantic data integration process. In this paper, we present a knowledge management system which is capable of representing knowledge requirements in a domain context and enabling the semantic data integration through ontology modeling. The knowledge domain context of United Bible Societies is used to illustrate the features of the knowledge management capabilities.

Modelling capability and affordance as properties of human/machine resource systems

Understanding how and why the capability of one set of business resources, its structural arrangements and mechanisms compared to another works can provide competitive advantage in terms of new business processes and product and service development. However, most business models of capability are descriptive and lack formal modelling language to qualitatively and quantifiably compare capabilities, Gibson’s theory of affordance, the potential for action, provides a formal basis for a more robust and quantitative model, but most formal affordance models are complex and abstract and lack support for real-world applications. We aim to understand the ‘how’ and ‘why’ of business capability, by developing a quantitative and qualitative model that underpins earlier work on Capability-Affordance Modelling – CAM. This paper integrates an affordance based capability model and the formalism of Coloured Petri Nets to develop a simulation model. Using the model, we show how capability depends on the space time path of interacting resources, the mechanism of transition and specific critical affordance factors relating to the values of the variables for resources, people and physical objects. We show how the model can identify the capabilities of resources to enable the capability to inject a drug and anaesthetise a patient.