Better cars or older cars?: Assessing CO2 emission reduction potential of passenger vehicle replacement programs

The primary motivation for the vehicle replacement schemes that were implemented in many countries was to encourage the purchase of new cars. The basic assumption of these schemes was that these acquisitions would benefit both the economy and the environment as older and less fuel-efficient cars were scrapped and replaced with more fuel-efficient models. In this article, we present a new environmental impact assessment method for assessing the effectiveness of scrappage schemes for reducing CO2 emissions taking into account the rebound effect, driving behavior for older versus new cars and entire lifecycle emissions for during the manufacturing processes of new cars. The assessment of the Japanese scrappage scheme shows that CO2 emissions would only decrease if users of the scheme retained their new gasoline passenger vehicles for at least 4.7 years. When vehicle replacements were restricted to hybrid cars, the reduction in CO2 achieved by the scheme would be 6-8.5 times higher than the emissions resulting from a scheme involving standard, gasoline passenger vehicles. Cost-benefit analysis, based on the emission reduction potential, showed that the scheme was very costly. Sensitivity analysis showed that the Japanese government failed to determine the optimum, or target, car age for scrapping old cars in the scheme. Specifically, scrapping cars aged 13 years and over did not maximize the environmental benefits of the scheme. Consequently, modifying this policy to include a reduction in new car subsidies, focused funding for fuel-efficient cars, and modifying the target car age, would increase environmental benefits. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Proceedings of the Third International Workshop on Theory and Applications of Process Visualization

This is the third TAProViz workshop being run at BPM. The intention this year is to consolidate on the results of the previous successful workshops by further developing this important topic, identifying the key research topics of interest to the BPM visualization community. We note this year the continuing interest in the visualisation of process mining data and resultant process models. More info at: http://wst.univie.ac.at/topics/taproviz14/

Managing risk in process-aware information systems

This research contributes a fully-operational approach for managing business process risk in near real-time. The approach consists of a language for defining risks on top of process models, a technique to detect such risks as they eventuate during the execution of business processes, a recommender system for making risk-informed decisions, and a technique to automatically mitigate the detected risks when they are no longer tolerable. Through the incorporation of risk management elements in all stages of the lifecycle of business processes, this work contributes to the effective integration of the fields of Business Process Management and Risk Management.

Exploring location-dependency in process modeling

Purpose – Context-awareness has emerged as an important principle in the design of flexible business processes. The goal of the research is to develop an approach to extend context-aware business process modeling toward location-awareness. The purpose of this paper is to identify and conceptualize location-dependencies in process modeling. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses a pattern-based approach to identify location-dependency in process models. The authors design specifications for these patterns. The authors present illustrative examples and evaluate the identified patterns through a literature review of published process cases. Findings – This paper introduces location-awareness as a new perspective to extend context-awareness in BPM research, by introducing relevant location concepts such as location-awareness and location-dependencies. The authors identify five basic location-dependent control-flow patterns that can be captured in process models. And the authors identify location-dependencies in several existing case studies of business processes. Research limitations/implications – The authors focus exclusively on the control-flow perspective of process models. Further work needs to extend the research to address location-dependencies in process data or resources. Further empirical work is needed to explore determinants and consequences of the modeling of location-dependencies. Originality/value – As existing literature mostly focusses on the broad context of business process, location in process modeling still is treated as “second class citizen” in theory and in practice. This paper discusses the vital role of location-dependencies within business processes. The proposed five basic location-dependent control-flow patterns are novel and useful to explain location-dependency in business process models. They provide a conceptual basis for further exploration of location-awareness in the management of business processes.

Towards a theory of individual-level discontinuance of information systems use

I develop a model of individuals’ intentions to discontinue information system use. Understanding these intentions is important because they give insights into users’ willingness to carry out system tasks, and provide a basis for maintenance decisions as well as possible replacement decisions. I offer a first conceptualization of factors determining users’ discontinuance intentions on basis of existing literature on technology use, status quo bias and dual factor concepts. The model is grounded in rational choice theory to distinguish determinants of a conscious decision between continuing or discontinuing IS use. I provide details on the empirical test of the model through a field study of IS users in a retail organization. The work will have implications for theory on information systems continuance and dual-factor logic in information system use. The empirical findings will provide suggestions for managers dealing with cessation of information systems and work routine changes in organizations.

In-memory business process management

In-memory databases have become a mainstay of enterprise computing offering significant performance and scalability boosts for online analytical and (to a lesser extent) transactional processing as well as improved prospects for integration across different applications through an efficient shared database layer. Significant research and development has been undertaken over several years concerning data management considerations of in-memory databases. However, limited insights are available on the impacts of applications and their supportive middleware platforms and how they need to evolve to fully function through, and leverage, in-memory database capabilities. This paper provides a first, comprehensive exposition into how in-memory databases impact Business Pro- cess Management, as a mission-critical and exemplary model-driven integration and orchestration middleware. Through it, we argue that in-memory databases will render some prevalent uses of legacy BPM middleware obsolete, but also open up exciting possibilities for tighter application integration, better process automation performance and some entirely new BPM capabilities such as process-based application customization. To validate the feasibility of an in-memory BPM, we develop a surprisingly simple BPM runtime embedded into SAP HANA and providing for BPMN-based process automation capabilities.

A recommendation system for predicting risks across multiple business process instances

This paper proposes a recommendation system that supports process participants in taking risk-informed decisions, with the goal of reducing risks that may arise during process execution. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a business process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to a risk of reputation loss, we enact this process and whenever a process participant needs to provide input to the process, e.g. by selecting the next task to execute or by filling out a form, we suggest to the participant the action to perform which minimizes the predicted process risk. Risks are predicted by traversing decision trees generated from the logs of past process executions, which consider process data, involved resources, task durations and other information elements like task frequencies. When applied in the context of multiple process instances running concurrently, a second technique is employed that uses integer linear programming to compute the optimal assignment of resources to tasks to be performed, in order to deal with the interplay between risks relative to different instances. The recommendation system has been implemented as a set of components on top of the YAWL BPM system and its effectiveness has been evaluated using a real-life scenario, in collaboration with risk analysts of a large insurance company. The results, based on a simulation of the real-life scenario and its comparison with the event data provided by the company, show that the process instances executed concurrently complete with significantly fewer faults and with lower fault severities, when the recommendations provided by our recommendation system are taken into account.

Changing the company name : a model for identity change through communication

In an ever evolving business landscape, change is an ever present part of any organisation’s lifecycle. This thesis presents communication as a fundamental element of effective change management. Drawing from the existing change communication literature and two case studies, this thesis examines how organisations utilise strategic change communication to manage identity change. As a result this study presents a conceptual model that outlines a process of change communication strategy and implementation. This model is offered as a step toward connecting important scholarship into a more comprehensive portrait of change communication during identity change than so far has been available.

Transitioning to energy efficient vehicles: An analysis of the potential rebound effects and subsequent impact upon emissions

Given the shift toward energy efficient vehicles (EEVs) in recent years, it is important that the effects of this transition are properly examined. This paper investigates some of these effects by analyzing annual kilometers traveled (AKT) of private vehicle owners in Stockholm in 2008. The difference in emissions associated with EEV adoption is estimated, along with the effect of a congestion-pricing exemption for EEVs on vehicle usage. Propensity score matching is used to compare AKT rates of different vehicle owner groups based on the treatments of: EEV ownership and commuting across the cordon, controlling for confounding factors such as demographics. Through this procedure, rebound effects are identified, with some EEV owners found to have driven up to 12.2% further than non-EEV owners. Although some of these differences could be attributed to the congestion-pricing exemption, the results were not statistically significant. Overall, taking into account lifecycle emissions of each fuel type, average EEV emissions were 50.5% less than average non-EEV emissions, with this reduction in emissions offset by 2.0% due to rebound effects. Although it is important for policy-makers to consider the potential for unexpected negative effects in similar transitions, the overall benefit of greatly reduced emissions appears to outweigh any rebound effects present in this case study.

Investment strategies in retirees' decumulation phase

This thesis consists of three studies on investment strategies for Australian retirees. Specifically, it investigates retirees' preference between alternative drawdown strategies in the presence of government pensions, appropriate management of longevity risk through the use of deferred annuities and asset allocation in retirement. It finds drawdown strategies linked to life expectancy to be the best performers. Deferred annuities are found to improve retirement incomes for risk averse retirees. For retirees who want to meet certain wealth thresholds in retirement, equity dominated portfolios provide superior outcomes for higher threshold levels.