890 resultados para BOOTSTRAP CONFIDENCE-INTERVALS
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BACKGROUND: Chest pain can be caused by various conditions, with life-threatening cardiac disease being of greatest concern. Prediction scores to rule out coronary artery disease have been developed for use in emergency settings. We developed and validated a simple prediction rule for use in primary care. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional diagnostic study in 74 primary care practices in Germany. Primary care physicians recruited all consecutive patients who presented with chest pain (n = 1249) and recorded symptoms and findings for each patient (derivation cohort). An independent expert panel reviewed follow-up data obtained at six weeks and six months on symptoms, investigations, hospital admissions and medications to determine the presence or absence of coronary artery disease. Adjusted odds ratios of relevant variables were used to develop a prediction rule. We calculated measures of diagnostic accuracy for different cut-off values for the prediction scores using data derived from another prospective primary care study (validation cohort). RESULTS: The prediction rule contained five determinants (age/sex, known vascular disease, patient assumes pain is of cardiac origin, pain is worse during exercise, and pain is not reproducible by palpation), with the score ranging from 0 to 5 points. The area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-0.91) for the derivation cohort and 0.90 (95% CI 0.87-0.93) for the validation cohort. The best overall discrimination was with a cut-off value of 3 (positive result 3-5 points; negative result <or= 2 points), which had a sensitivity of 87.1% (95% CI 79.9%-94.2%) and a specificity of 80.8% (77.6%-83.9%). INTERPRETATION: The prediction rule for coronary artery disease in primary care proved to be robust in the validation cohort. It can help to rule out coronary artery disease in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care.
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BACKGROUND: Recently, it was shown that the relation between admission glucose and functional outcome after ischemic stroke is described by a J-shaped curve, with a glucose range of 3.7-7.3 mmol/l associated with a favorable outcome. We tested the hypothesis that persistence of hyperglycemia above this threshold at 24-48 h after stroke onset impairs 3-month functional outcome. METHODS: We analyzed all patients with glucose >7.3 mmol/l on admission from the Acute STroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL). Patients were divided into two groups according to their subacute glucose level at 24-48 h after last well-being time (group 1: ≤7.3 mmol/l, group 2: >7.3 mmol/l). A favorable functional outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Score (mRS) ≤2 at 3 months. A multiple logistic regression analysis of multiple demographic, clinical, laboratory and neuroimaging covariates was performed to assess predictors of an unfavorable outcome. RESULTS: A total of 1,984 patients with ischemic stroke were admitted between January 1, 2003 and October 20, 2009, within 24 h after last well-being time. In the 421 patients (21.2%) with admission glucose >7.3 mmol/l, the proportion of patients with a favorable outcome was not statistically significantly different between the two groups (59.2 vs. 48.7%, respectively). In multiple logistic regression analysis, unfavorable outcome was significantly associated with age (odds ratio, OR: 1.06, 95% confidence interval, 95% CI: 1.03-1.08 for every 10-year increase), National Institute of Health Stroke Score, NIHSS score, on admission (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.11-1.21), prehospital mRS (OR: 12.63, 95% CI: 2.61-61.10 for patients with score >0), antidiabetic drug usage (OR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.15-0.86) and glucose on admission (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.02-1.31 for every 1 mmol/l increase). No association was found between persistent hyperglycemia at 24-28 h and outcome in either diabetics or nondiabetics. CONCLUSIONS: In ischemic stroke patients with acute hyperglycemia, persistent hyperglycemia (>7.3 mmol/l) at 24-48 h after stroke onset is not associated with a worse functional outcome at 3 months whether the patient was previously diabetic or not.
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Background Carotenoids, micronutrients in fruits and vegetables, may reduce breast cancer risk. Most, but not all, past studies of circulating carotenoids and breast cancer have found an inverse association with at least one carotenoid, although the specific carotenoid has varied across studies. Methods We conducted a pooled analysis of eight cohort studies comprising more than 80% of the world's published prospective data on plasma or serum carotenoids and breast cancer, including 3055 case subjects and 3956 matched control subjects. To account for laboratory differences and examine population differences across studies, we recalibrated participant carotenoid levels to a common standard by reassaying 20 plasma or serum samples from each cohort together at the same laboratory. Using conditional logistic regression, adjusting for several breast cancer risk factors, we calculated relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using quintiles defined among the control subjects from all studies. All P values are two-sided. Results Statistically significant inverse associations with breast cancer were observed for α-carotene (top vs bottom quintile RR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.71 to 1.05, Ptrend = .04), β-carotene (RR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.70 to 0.98, Ptrend = .02), lutein+zeaxanthin (RR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.70 to 1.01, Ptrend = .05), lycopene (RR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.99, Ptrend = .02), and total carotenoids (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.68 to 0.96, Ptrend = .01). β-Cryptoxanthin was not statistically significantly associated with risk. Tests for heterogeneity across studies were not statistically significant. For several carotenoids, associations appeared stronger for estrogen receptor negative (ER(-)) than for ER(+) tumors (eg, β-carotene: ER(-): top vs bottom quintile RR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.36 to 0.77, Ptrend = .001; ER(+): RR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.66 to 1.04, Ptrend = .06; Pheterogeneity = .01). Conclusions This comprehensive prospective analysis suggests women with higher circulating levels of α-carotene, β-carotene, lutein+zeaxanthin, lycopene, and total carotenoids may be at reduced risk of breast cancer.
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Background: Mortality among patients who complete tuberculosis (TB) treatment is still high among vulnerable populations. The objective of the study was to identify the probability of death and its predictive factors in a cohort of successfully treated TB patients. Methods: A population-based retrospective longitudinal study was performed in Barcelona, Spain. All patients who successfully completed TB treatment with culture-confirmation and available drug susceptibility testing between 1995 1997 were retrospectively followed-up until December 31, 2005 by the Barcelona TB Control Program. Socio-demographic, clinical, microbiological and treatment variables were examined. Mortality, TB Program and AIDS registries were reviewed. Kaplan-Meier and a Cox regression methods with time-dependent covariates were used for the survival analysis, calculating the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Among the 762 included patients, the median age was 36 years, 520 (68.2%) were male, 178 (23.4%) HIV-infected, and 208 (27.3%) were alcohol abusers. Of the 134 (17.6%) injecting drug users (IDU), 123 (91.8%) were HIV-infected. A total of 30 (3.9%) recurrences and 173 deaths (22.7%) occurred (mortality rate: 3.4/100 person-years of follow-up). The predictors of death were: age between 4160 years old (HR: 3.5; CI:2.15.7), age greater than 60 years (HR: 14.6; CI:8.924), alcohol abuse (HR: 1.7; CI:1.22.4) and HIV-infected IDU (HR: 7.9; CI:4.713.3). Conclusions: The mortality rate among TB patients who completed treatment is associated with vulnerable populations such as the elderly, alcohol abusers, and HIV-infected IDU. We therefore need to fight against poverty, and promote and develop interventions and social policies directed towards these populations to improve their survival.
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The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between cigarette smoking and endometrial cancer risk by investigating potential modifying effects of menopausal status, obesity, and exogenous hormones. We pooled data from three case-control studies with the same study design conducted in Italy and Switzerland between 1982 and 2006. Overall, 1446 incident endometrial cancers and 4076 hospital controls were enrolled. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using logistic regression models, conditioned on study and centre, and adjusted for age, period of interview, age at menarche, parity, and body mass index. In comparison with never smokers, current smokers showed reduced endometrial cancer risk (OR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.66-0.96), with a 28% decrease in risk for smoking >/=20 cigarettes/day. The association did not vary according to menopausal status, oral contraceptive use, or hormone replacement therapy. However, heterogeneity emerged according to body mass index among postmenopausal women, with obese women showing the greatest risk reduction for current smoking (OR: 0.47; 95% CI: 0.27-0.81). In postmenopausal women, obesity turned out to be an important modifier of the association between cigarette smoking and the risk of endometrial cancer. This finding calls for caution in interpreting the favorable effects of cigarette smoking, considering the toxic and carcinogenic effects of tobacco.
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OBJECTIVE: To investigate HIV-related immunodeficiency as a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among persons infected with HIV, while controlling for the effect of frequent coinfection with hepatitis C and B viruses. DESIGN: A case-control study nested in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: Twenty-six HCC patients were identified in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study or through linkage with Swiss Cancer Registries, and were individually matched to 251 controls according to Swiss HIV Cohort Study centre, sex, HIV-transmission category, age and year at enrollment. Odds ratios and corresponding confidence intervals were estimated by conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: All HCC patients were positive for hepatitis B surface antigen or antibodies against hepatitis C virus. HCC patients included 14 injection drug users (three positive for hepatitis B surface antigen and 13 for antibodies against hepatitis C virus) and 12 men having sex with men/heterosexual/other (11 positive for hepatitis B surface antigen, three for antibodies against hepatitis C virus), revealing a strong relationship between HIV transmission route and hepatitis viral type. Latest CD4+ cell count [Odds ratio (OR) per 100 cells/mul decrease = 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.68] and CD4+ cell count percentage (OR per 10% decrease = 1.65, 95% CI 1.01-2.71) were significantly associated with HCC. The effects of CD4+ cell count were concentrated among men having sex with men/heterosexual/other rather than injecting drug users. Highly active antiretroviral therapy use was not significantly associated with HCC risk (OR for ever versus never = 0.59, 95% confidence interval 0.18-1.91). CONCLUSION: Lower CD4+ cell counts increased the risk for HCC among persons infected with HIV, an effect that was particularly evident for hepatitis B virus-related HCC arising in non-injecting drug users.
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STUDY OBJECTIVES The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a mass vaccination programme carried out in Catalonia (Spain) in the last quarter of 1997 in response to an upsurge of serogroup C meningococcal disease (SCMD). DESIGN Vaccination coverage in the 18 month to 19 years age group was investigated by means of a specific vaccination register. Vaccination effectiveness was calculated using the prospective cohort method. Cases of SCMD were identified on the basis of compulsory reporting and microbiological notification by hospital laboratories. Vaccination histories were investigated in all cases. Unadjusted and age adjusted vaccination effectiveness referred to the time of vaccination and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months of follow up. SETTING All population aged 18 months to 19 years of Catalonia. MAIN RESULTS A total of seven cases of SCMD were detected at six months of follow up (one in the vaccinated cohort), 12 cases at 12 months (one in the vaccinated cohort), 19 cases at 18 months (two in the vaccinated cohort) and 24 at 24 months (two in the vaccinated cohort). The age adjusted effectiveness was 84% (95%CI 30, 97) at six months, 92% (95%CI 63, 98) at 12 months, 92% (95% CI 71, 98) at 18 months and 94% (95%CI 78, 98) at 24 months. In the target population, cases have been reduced by more than two thirds (68%) two years after the vaccination programme. In the total population the reduction was 43%. CONCLUSION Vaccination effectiveness has been high in Catalonia, with a dramatic reduction in disease incidence in the vaccinated cohort accompanied by a relevant reduction in the overall population. Given that vaccination coverage was only 54.6%, it may be supposed that this vaccination effectiveness is attributable, in part, to the herd immunity conferred by the vaccine.
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Background: In July 2005 an outbreak of acute gastroenteritis occurred on a residential summer camp in the province of Barcelona (northeast of Spain). Forty-four people were affected among residents and employees. All of them had in common a meal at lunch time on 13 July (paella, round of beef and fruit). The aim of this study was to investigate a foodborne norovirus outbreak that occurred in the residential summer camp and in which the implication of a food handler was demonstrated by laboratory tests. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was designed. Personal or telephone interview was carried out to collect demographic, clinical and microbiological data of the exposed people, as well as food consumption in the suspected lunch. Food handlers of the mentioned summer camp were interviewed. Ten stool samples were requested from symptomatic exposed residents and the three food handlers that prepared the suspected food. Stools were tested for bacteries and noroviruses. Norovirus was detected using RT-PCR and sequence analysis. Attack rate, relative risks (RR) and its 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to assess the association between food consumption and disease. Results: The global attack rate of the outbreak was 55%. The main symptoms were abdominal pain (90%), nausea (85%), vomiting (70%) and diarrhoea (42.5%). The disease remitted in 24-48 hours. Norovirus was detected in seven faecal samples, one of them was from an asymptomatic food handler who had not eaten the suspected food (round of beef), but cooked and served the lunch. Analysis of the two suspected foods isolated no pathogenic bacteria and detected no viruses. Molecular analysis showed that the viral strain was the same in ill patients and in the asymptomatic food handler (genotype GII.2 Melksham-like). Conclusions: In outbreaks of foodborne disease, the search for viruses in affected patients and all food handlers, even in those that are asymptomatic, is essential. Health education of food handlers with respect to hand washing should be promoted.
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PURPOSE: To ascertain the prevalence of piercing among a nationally representative sample of adolescents; to assess whether having a piercing is a marker for risk behaviors; and to determine whether having more than one piercing is a cumulative marker for risk behaviors. METHODS: Data were drawn from a cross-sectional survey of a nationally representative sample of adolescents aged 16 to 20 years (N=7548). Controlling for background variables, pierced and non-pierced youth were compared on risk behaviors related to drug use, sexual behavior, and suicide. In a second step, adolescents having one piercing were compared with those having more than one. In both cases, statistically significant variables in the bivariate analysis were included in a logistic regression. Analyses were conducted separately by gender. RESULTS: Overall, 20.2% of our sample had a piercing (excluding earlobes), and it was significantly more prevalent among females than among males (33.8% vs. 7.4%; P<.001). In the bivariate analysis, all risk behaviors were significantly associated with having a piercing, and most of them remained significant in the multivariate analysis. One third of pierced subjects had more than one piercing, with no gender difference in prevalence. In the multivariate analysis, females with more than one piercing were more likely to have had multiple partners and to use cannabis, while no differences were noted for males. CONCLUSIONS: Body piercing is becoming popular among Swiss adolescents, especially females. Having a body piercing seems to be a risk marker for risk behaviors. Moreover, having multiple piercings is a cumulative risk marker for females.
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BACKGROUND: Most societies elaborate ways to contain increasing health care expenditures. In Switzerland out of pocket payments and cuts in the catalogue of reimbursed services are used as cost-containment measures. The aims of the study were to estimate the extent of health care renunciation for economic reasons and to identify associated factors. METHODS: A population-based cross-sectional survey (2008-2009) of a representative sample in the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland. Health care underuse, income level categories (<CHF 3000/month, 3000-4999, 5000-6999, 7000-9499, 9500-13 000, >13 000), education, occupation, insurance status and cardiovascular comorbidities were collected using self-rated questionnaires. RESULTS: 765 men and 814 women aged 35-74 years participated. 14.5% (229/1579) (95%CI 12.7-16.2) renounced health care for economic reasons. Among those who renounced (N = 229), 74% renounced dental care, 37% physician consultation (22% specialist, 15% general practitioner), 26% health devices, 13% medication, and 5% surgery. Income was negatively correlated with renouncement (r = -0.18, p <.0001). Each decrease in income level category provided a 48% increased risk of renouncing health care for economic reasons (OR 1.48, 1.31-1.65). This association remained when dental care was excluded from the definition of health care renunciation. CONCLUSIONS: In a region of Switzerland with a high cost of living, such as Geneva, socioeconomic status may influence the use of the health care system, and renunciation for economic reasons was not uncommon. More than 30% of the lowest income group renounced health care for economical reasons in the previous year. Health care underuse and renunciation may worsen the health status of a substantial part of society.
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Purpose: To assess the global cardiovascular (CV) risk of an individual, several scores have been developed. However, their accuracy and comparability need to be evaluated in populations others from which they were derived. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive accuracy of 4 CV risk scores using data of a large population-based cohort. Methods: Prospective cohort study including 4980 participants (2698 women, mean age± SD: 52.7±10.8 years) in Lausanne, Switzerland followed for an average of 5.5 years (range 0.2 - 8.5). Two end points were assessed: 1) coronary heart disease (CHD), and 2) CV diseases (CVD). Four risk scores were compared: original and recalibrated Framingham coronary heart disease scores (1998 and 2001); original PROCAM score (2002) and its recalibrated version for Switzerland (IAS-AGLA); Reynolds risk score. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, model fitness using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and calibration using pseudo Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The sensitivity, specificity and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were assessed for each risk score using the highest risk category ([20+ % at 10 years) as the "positive" test. Results: Recalibrated and original 1998 and original 2001 Framingham scores show better discrimination (>0.720) and model fitness (low AIC) for CHD and CVD. All 4 scores are correctly calibrated (Chi2<20). The recalibrated Framingham 1998 score has the best sensitivities, 37.8% and 40.4%, for CHD and CVD, respectively. All scores present specificities >90%. Framingham 1998, PROCAM and IAS-AGLA scores include the greatest proportion of subjects (>200) in the high risk category whereas recalibrated Framingham 2001 and Reynolds include <=44 subjects. Conclusion: In this cohort, we see variations of accuracy between risk scores, the original Framingham 2001 score demonstrating the best compromise between its accuracy and its limited selection of subjects in the highest risk category. We advocate that national guidelines, based on independently validated data, take into account calibrated CV risk scores for their respective countries.
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BACKGROUND: The Mediterranean diet has a beneficial role on various neoplasms, but data are scanty on oral cavity and pharyngeal (OCP) cancer. METHODS: We analysed data from a case-control study carried out between 1997 and 2009 in Italy and Switzerland, including 768 incident, histologically confirmed OCP cancer cases and 2078 hospital controls. Adherence to the Mediterranean diet was measured using the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) based on the major characteristics of the Mediterranean diet, and two other scores, the Mediterranean Dietary Pattern Adherence Index (MDP) and the Mediterranean Adequacy Index (MAI). RESULTS: We estimated the odds ratios (ORs), and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI), for increasing levels of the scores (i.e., increasing adherence) using multiple logistic regression models. We found a reduced risk of OCP cancer for increasing levels of the MDS, the ORs for subjects with six or more MDS components compared with two or less being 0.20 (95% CI 0.14-0.28, P-value for trend <0.0001). The ORs for the highest vs the lowest quintile were 0.20 (95% CI 0.14-0.28) for the MDP score (score 66.2 or more vs less than 57.9), and 0.48 (95% CI 0.33-0.69) for the MAI score (score value 2.1 or more vs value less 0.92), with significant trends of decreasing risk for both scores. The favourable effect of the Mediterranean diet was apparently stronger in younger subjects, in those with a higher level of education, and in ex-smokers, although it was observed in other strata as well. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides strong evidence of a beneficial role of the Mediterranean diet on OCP cancer.
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This nested case-control analysis of a Swiss ambulatory cohort of elderly women assessed the discriminatory power of urinary markers of bone resorption and heel quantitative ultrasound for non-vertebral fractures. The tests all discriminated between cases and controls, but combining the two strategies yielded no additional relevant information. INTRODUCTION: Data are limited regarding the combination of bone resorption markers and heel quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS) in the detection of women at risk for fracture. METHODS: In a nested case-control analysis, we studied 368 women (mean age 76.2 +/- 3.2 years), 195 with low-trauma non-vertebral fractures and 173 without, matched for age, BMI, medical center, and follow-up duration, from a prospective study designed to predict fractures. Urinary total pyridinolines (PYD) and deoxypyridinolines (DPD) were measured by high performance liquid chromatography. All women underwent bone evaluations using Achilles+ and Sahara heel QUS. RESULTS: Areas under the receiver operating-characteristic curve (AUC) for discriminative models of the fracture group, with 95% confidence intervals, were 0.62 (0.56-0.68) and 0.59 (0.53-0.65) for PYD and DPD, and 0.64 (0.58-0.69) and 0.65 (0.59-0.71) for Achilles+ and Sahara QUS, respectively. The combination of resorption markers and QUS added no significant discriminatory information to either measurement alone with an AUC of 0.66 (0.60-0.71) for Achilles+ with PYD and 0.68 (0.62-0.73) for Sahara with PYD. CONCLUSIONS: Urinary bone resorption markers and QUS are equally discriminatory between non-vertebral fracture patients and controls. However, the combination of bone resorption markers and QUS is not better than either test used alone.
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The objective of this study was to describe the all-cause mortality of participants in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort compared to the Swiss general population. Patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection attending secondary and tertiary care centres in Switzerland. One thousand six hundred and forty-five patients with HCV infection were followed up for a mean of over 2 years. We calculated all-cause standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using age, sex and calendar year-specific Swiss all-cause mortality rates. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to model the variability of SMR by cirrhotic status, HCV genotype, infection with hepatitis B virus or HIV, injection drug use and alcohol intake. Sixty-one deaths were recorded out of 1645 participants. The crude all-cause SMR was 4.5 (95% CI: 3.5-5.8). Patients co-infected with HIV had a crude SMR of 20 (95% CI: 11.1-36.1). The SMR of 1.1 (95% CI: 0.63-2.03) for patients who were not cirrhotic, not infected with HBV or HIV, did not inject drugs, were not heavy alcohol consumers (<or=40 g/day) and were not genotype 3, indicated no strong evidence of excess mortality. We found little evidence of excess mortality in hepatitis C infected patients who were not cirrhotic, in the absence of selected risk factors. Our findings emphasize the importance of providing appropriate preventive advice, such as counselling to avoid alcohol intake, in those infected with HCV.
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PURPOSE. Knowledge of genetic factors predisposing to age-related cataract is very limited. The aim of this study was to identify DNA sequences that either lead to or predispose for this disease. METHODS. The candidate gene SLC16A12, which encodes a solute carrier of the monocarboxylate transporter family, was sequenced in 484 patients with cataract (134 with juvenile cataract, 350 with age-related cataract) and 190 control subjects. Expression studies included luciferase reporter assay and RT-PCR experiments. RESULTS. One patient with age-related cataract showed a novel heterozygous mutation (c.-17A>G) in the 5'untranslated region (5'UTR). This mutation is in cis with the minor G-allele of the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs3740030 (c.-42T/G), also within the 5'UTR. Using a luciferase reporter assay system, a construct with the patient's haplotype caused a significant upregulation of luciferase activity. In comparison, the SNP G-allele alone promoted less activity, but that amount was still significantly higher than the amount of the common T-allele. Analysis of SLC16A12 transcripts in surrogate tissue demonstrated striking allele-specific differences causing 5'UTR heterogeneity with respect to sequence and quantity. These differences in gene expression were mirrored in an allele-specific predisposition to age-related cataract, as determined in a Swiss population (odds ratio approximately 2.2; confidence intervals, 1.23-4.3). CONCLUSIONS. The monocarboxylate transporter SLC16A12 may contribute to age-related cataract. Sequences within the 5'UTR modulate translational efficiency with pathogenic consequences.