Capital Works Procurement: The Selection of a Building Procurement Method

The determination of the most appropriate procurement method for capital works projects is a challenging task for the Department of Housing and Works (DHW) and other Western Australian State Government Agencies because of the array of assessment criteria that are considered and the procurement methods that are available. A number of different procurement systems can be used to deliver capital works projects such a traditional, design and construct and management. Sub-classifications of these systems have proliferated and continue to emerge in response to market demands. The selection of an inappropriate procurement method may lead to undesirable project outcomes. To facilitate DHW in selecting an appropriate procurement method for its capital works projects, a six step procurement method selection process is presented. The characteristics of the most common forms of procurement method used in Australia are presented. Case studies where procurement methods have been used for specific types of capital works in Western Australia are offered to provide a reference point and learning opportunity for procurement method selection.

Report : stochastic analysis of road asset data for maintenance cost prediction

Reliable budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation are subjected to uncertainties and variability in road asset condition and characteristics of road users. The CRC CI research project 2003-029-C ‘Maintenance Cost Prediction for Road’ developed a method for assessing variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation. The method is based on probability-based reliable theory and statistical method. The next stage of the current project is to apply the developed method to predict maintenance/rehabilitation budgets/costs of large networks for strategic investment. The first task is to assess the variability of road data. This report presents initial results of the analysis in assessing the variability of road data. A case study of the analysis for dry non reactive soil is presented to demonstrate the concept in analysing the variability of road data for large road networks. In assessing the variability of road data, large road networks were categorised into categories with common characteristics according to soil and climatic conditions, pavement conditions, pavement types, surface types and annual average daily traffic. The probability distributions, statistical means, and standard deviation values of asset conditions and annual average daily traffic for each type were quantified. The probability distributions and the statistical information obtained in this analysis will be used to asset the variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates in later stage. Generally, we usually used mean values of asset data of each category as input values for investment analysis. The variability of asset data in each category is not taken into account. This analysis method demonstrated that it can be used for practical application taking into account the variability of road data in analysing large road networks for maintenance/rehabilitation investment analysis.

Selection method for sustainable building

For a sustainable building industry, not only should the environmental and economic indicators be evaluated but also the societal indicators for building. Current indicators can be in conflict with each other, thus decision making is difficult to clearly quantify and assess sustainability. For the sustainable building, the objectives of decreasing both adverse environmental impact and cost are in conflict. In addition, even though both objectives may be satisfied, building management systems may present other problems such as convenience of occupants, flexibility of building, or technical maintenance, which are difficult to quantify as exact assessment data. These conflicting problems confronting building managers or planners render building management more difficult. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate a sustainable building considering socio-economic and environmental characteristics of buildings, and is intended to assist the decision making for building planners or practitioners. The suggested methodology employs three main concepts: linguistic variables, fuzzy numbers, and an analytic hierarchy process. The linguistic variables are used to represent the degree of appropriateness of qualitative indicators, which are vague or uncertain. These linguistic variables are then translated into fuzzy numbers to reflect their uncertainties and aggregated into the final fuzzy decision value using a hierarchical structure. Through a case study, the suggested methodology is applied to the evaluation of a building. The result demonstrates that the suggested approach can be a useful tool for evaluating a building for sustainability.

Study on the method of freeway incident detection using wireless positioning terminal

Improving the performance of a incident detection system was essential to minimize the effect of incidents. A new method of incident detection was brought forward in this paper based on an in-car terminal which consisted of GPS module, GSM module and control module as well as some optional parts such as airbag sensors, mobile phone positioning system (MPPS) module, etc. When a driver or vehicle discovered the freeway incident and initiated an alarm report the incident location information located by GPS, MPPS or both would be automatically send to a transport management center (TMC), then the TMC would confirm the accident with a closed-circuit television (CCTV) or other approaches. In this method, detection rate (DR), time to detect (TTD) and false alarm rate (FAR) were more important performance targets. Finally, some feasible means such as management mode, education mode and suitable accident confirming approaches had been put forward to improve these targets.

A numerical method to quantify the axial shortening of vertical elements in concrete buildings

Differential axial shortening, distortion and deformation in high rise buildings is a serious concern. They are caused by three time dependent modes of volume change; “shrinkage”, “creep” and “elastic shortening” that takes place in every concrete element during and after construction. Vertical concrete components in a high rise building are sized and designed based on their strength demand to carry gravity and lateral loads. Therefore, columns and walls are sized, shaped and reinforced differently with varying concrete grades and volume to surface area ratios. These structural components may be subjected to the detrimental effects of differential axial shortening that escalates with increasing the height of buildings. This can have an adverse impact on other structural and non-structural elements. Limited procedures are available to quantify axial shortening, and the results obtained from them differ because each procedure is based on various assumptions and limited to few parameters. All these prompt to a need to develop an accurate numerical procedure to quantify the axial shortening of concrete buildings taking into account the important time varying functions of (i) construction sequence (ii) Young’s Modulus and (iii) creep and shrinkage models associated with reinforced concrete. General assumptions are refined to minimize variability of creep and shrinkage parameters to improve accuracy of the results. Finite element techniques are used in the procedure that employs time history analysis along with compression only elements to simulate staged construction behaviour. This paper presents such a procedure and illustrates it through an example. Keywords: Differential Axial Shortening, Concrete Buildings, Creep and Shrinkage, Construction Sequence, Finite Element Method.

Using Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to predict length of hospital stay following trauma in New Zealand

Aim – To develop and assess the predictive capabilities of a statistical model that relates routinely collected Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to length of hospital stay (LOS) in survivors of traumatic injury. Method – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until discharge from Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Cubic-root transformed LOS was analysed using two-level mixed-effects regression models. Results – 1498 eligible patients were identified, 1446 (97%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 52 (3%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1096 (76%) were male, average age was 37 years (range: 15-94 years), and LOS and TRISS score information was available for 1362 patients. Spearman’s correlation and the median absolute prediction error between LOS and the original TRISS model was ρ=0.31 and 10.8 days, respectively, and between LOS and the final multivariable two-level mixed-effects regression model was ρ=0.38 and 6.0 days, respectively. Insufficient data were available for the analysis of penetrating mechanism models. Conclusions – Neither the original TRISS model nor the refined model has sufficient ability to accurately or reliably predict LOS. Additional predictor variables for LOS and other indicators for morbidity need to be considered.

Burden of care and general health in families of patients with schizophrenia

Background: De-institutionalization of psychiatric patients has led to a greater emphasis on family management in the community, and family members are often overwhelmed by the demands that caring for a patient with schizophrenia involves. Most studies of family burden in schizophrenia have taken place in developed countries. The current study examined family burden and its correlates in a regional area of a medium income country in South America. Method: Sixty-five relatives of patients with schizophrenia who were attending a public mental health out-patient service in the province of Arica, Chile, were assessed on Spanish versions of the Zarit Caregiver Burden Scale and SF-36 Health Survey (SF-36). Results: Average levels of burden were very high, particularly for mothers, carers with less education, carers of younger patients and carers of patients with more hospitalisations in the previous 3 years. Kinship and number of recent hospitalisations retained unique predictive variance in a multiple regression. Burden was the strongest predictor of SF-36 subscales, and the prediction from burden remained significant after entry of other potential predictors. Conclusions: In common with families in developed countries, family members of schizophrenia patients in regional Chile reported high levels of burden and related functional and health impact. The study highlighted the support needs of carers in contexts with high rates of poverty and limited health and community resources.

A method of lines approach for modelling saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifiers

The equations governing saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers are complex. Backward Euler time stepping approaches are often used to advance the solution to these equations in time, which typically requires that small time steps be taken in order to ensure that an accurate solution is obtained. We show that a method of lines approach incorporating variable order backward differentiation formulas can greatly improve the efficiency of the time stepping process.

Toward a fuzzy domain ontology extraction method for adaptive e-learning

With the widespread applications of electronic learning (e-Learning) technologies to education at all levels, increasing number of online educational resources and messages are generated from the corresponding e-Learning environments. Nevertheless, it is quite difficult, if not totally impossible, for instructors to read through and analyze the online messages to predict the progress of their students on the fly. The main contribution of this paper is the illustration of a novel concept map generation mechanism which is underpinned by a fuzzy domain ontology extraction algorithm. The proposed mechanism can automatically construct concept maps based on the messages posted to online discussion forums. By browsing the concept maps, instructors can quickly identify the progress of their students and adjust the pedagogical sequence on the fly. Our initial experimental results reveal that the accuracy and the quality of the automatically generated concept maps are promising. Our research work opens the door to the development and application of intelligent software tools to enhance e-Learning.

The Influence of Farm Management on NSW Rural Property Income and Total Average Annual Returns

The importance of agriculture in many countries has tended to reduce as their economies move from a resource base to a manufacturing industry base. Although the level of agricultural production in first world countries has increased over the past two decades, this increase has generally been at a less significant rate compared to other sectors of the economies. Despite this increase in secondary and high technology industries, developed countries have continued to encourage and support their agricultural industries. This support has been through both tariffs and price support. Following pressure from developing economies, particularly through the World Trade Organisation (WTO), GATT Uruguay round and the Cairns Group developed countries are now in various stages of winding back or de-coupling agricultural support within their economies. A major concern of farmers in protected agricultural markets is the impact of a free market trade in agricultural commodities on farm incomes, profitability and land values. This paper will analyse both the capital and income performance of the NSW rural land market over the period 1990-1999. This analysis will be based on several rural land use classifications and will compare the total return from rural properties based on the farm income generated by both the average farmer and those farmers considered to be in the top 20% of the various land use areas. The analysis will provide a comprehensive overview of rural production in a free trade economy.

Time series analysis of a Web search engine transaction log

In this paper, we use time series analysis to evaluate predictive scenarios using search engine transactional logs. Our goal is to develop models for the analysis of searchers’ behaviors over time and investigate if time series analysis is a valid method for predicting relationships between searcher actions. Time series analysis is a method often used to understand the underlying characteristics of temporal data in order to make forecasts. In this study, we used a Web search engine transactional log and time series analysis to investigate users’ actions. We conducted our analysis in two phases. In the initial phase, we employed a basic analysis and found that 10% of searchers clicked on sponsored links. However, from 22:00 to 24:00, searchers almost exclusively clicked on the organic links, with almost no clicks on sponsored links. In the second and more extensive phase, we used a one-step prediction time series analysis method along with a transfer function method. The period rarely affects navigational and transactional queries, while rates for transactional queries vary during different periods. Our results show that the average length of a searcher session is approximately 2.9 interactions and that this average is consistent across time periods. Most importantly, our findings shows that searchers who submit the shortest queries (i.e., in number of terms) click on highest ranked results. We discuss implications, including predictive value, and future research.

A differential kinetic spectrophotometric method for determination of three sulphanilamide artificial sweeteners with the aid of chemometrics

A simple and sensitive spectrophotometric method for the simultaneous determination of acesulfame-K, sodium cyclamate and saccharin sodium sweeteners in foodstuff samples has been researched and developed. This analytical method relies on the different kinetic rates of the analytes in their oxidative reaction with KMnO4 to produce the green manganate product in an alkaline solution. As the kinetic rates of acesulfame-K, sodium cyclamate and saccharin sodium were similar and their kinetic data seriously overlapped, chemometrics methods, such as partial least squares (PLS), principal component regression (PCR) and classical least squares (CLS), were applied to resolve the kinetic data. The results showed that the PLS prediction model performed somewhat better. The proposed method was then applied for the determination of the three sweeteners in foodstuff samples, and the results compared well with those obtained by the reference HPLC method.

Analysis of road potential and bottlenecks based on operating speed

Vehicle detectors have been installed at approximately every 300 meters on each lane on Tokyo metropolitan expressway. Various traffic data such as traffic volume, average speed and time occupancy are collected by vehicle detectors. We can understand traffic characteristics of every point by comparing traffic data collected at consecutive points. In this study, we focused on average speed, analyzed road potential by operating speed during free-flow conditions, and identified latent bottlenecks. Furthermore, we analyzed effects for road potential by the rainfall level and day of the week. It’s expected that this method of analysis will be utilized for installation of ITS such as drive assist, estimation of parameters for traffic simulation and feedback to road design as congestion measures.