Portfolio selection using artificial intelligence

The application of artificial intelligence in finance is relatively new area of research. This project employed artificial neural networks (ANNs) that use both fundamental and technical inputs to predict future prices of widely held Australian stocks and use these predicted prices for stock portfolio selection over a long investment horizon. The research involved the creation and testing of a large number of possible network configurations and draws conclusions about ANN architectures and their overall suitability for the purpose of stock portfolio selection.

Selling new neighborhoods as good for walking : issues for measuring self-selection

Background: Self-selection-whether individuals inclined to walk more seek to live in walkable environments-must be accounted for when studying built environment influences on walking. The way neighborhoods are marketed to future residents has the potential to sway residential location choice, and may consequently affect measures of self-selection related to location preferences. We assessed how walking opportunities are promoted to potential buyers, by examining walkability attributes in marketing materials for housing developments. Methods: A content analysis of marketing materials for 32 new housing developments in Perth, Australia was undertaken, to assess how walking was promoted in the text and pictures. Housing developments designed to be pedestrian-friendly (LDs) were compared with conventional developments (CDs). Results: Compared with CDs, LD marketing materials had significantly more references to 'public transport,' small home sites,' walkable parks/open space,' ease of cycling,' safe environment,' and 'boardwalks.' Other walkability attributes approached significance. Conclusion: Findings suggest the way neighborhoods are marketed may contribute to self-reported reasons for choosing particular neighborhoods, especially when attributes are not present at the time of purchase. The marketing of housing developments may be an important factor to consider when measuring self-selection, and its influence on the built environment and walking relationship.

Mawson the astrobiologist rover : towards automatic recognition of stromatolites

This work aims at developing a planetary rover capable of acting as an assistant astrobiologist: making a preliminary analysis of the collected visual images that will help to make better use of the scientists time by pointing out the most interesting pieces of data. This paper focuses on the problem of detecting and recognising particular types of stromatolites. Inspired by the processes actual astrobiologists go through in the field when identifying stromatolites, the processes we investigate focus on recognising characteristics associated with biogenicity. The extraction of these characteristics is based on the analysis of geometrical structure enhanced by passing the images of stromatolites into an edge-detection filter and its Fourier Transform, revealing typical spatial frequency patterns. The proposed analysis is performed on both simulated images of stromatolite structures and images of real stromatolites taken in the field by astrobiologists.

Reliable automatic camera-laser calibration

Camera-laser calibration is necessary for many robotics and computer vision applications. However, existing calibration toolboxes still require laborious effort from the operator in order to achieve reliable and accurate results. This paper proposes algorithms that augment two existing trustful calibration methods with an automatic extraction of the calibration object from the sensor data. The result is a complete procedure that allows for automatic camera-laser calibration. The first stage of the procedure is automatic camera calibration which is useful in its own right for many applications. The chessboard extraction algorithm it provides is shown to outperform openly available techniques. The second stage completes the procedure by providing automatic camera-laser calibration. The procedure has been verified by extensive experimental tests with the proposed algorithms providing a major reduction in time required from an operator in comparison to manual methods.

Selection and monitoring of navigation modes for an autonomous rover

Considering the wide spectrum of situations that it may encounter, a robot navigating autonomously in outdoor environments needs to be endowed with several operating modes, for robustness and efficiency reasons. Indeed, the terrain it has to traverse may be composed of flat or rough areas, low cohesive soils such as sand dunes, concrete road etc... Traversing these various kinds of environment calls for different navigation and/or locomotion functionalities, especially if the robot is endowed with different locomotion abilities, such as the robots WorkPartner, Hylos [4], Nomad or the Marsokhod rovers.

Selection and monitoring of navigation modes for an autonomous rover

Considering the wide spectrum of situations that it may encounter, a robot navigating autonomously in outdoor environments needs to be endowed with several operating modes, for robustness and efficiency reasons. Indeed, the terrain it has to traverse may be composed of flat or rough areas, low cohesive soils such as sand dunes, concrete road etc. . .Traversing these various kinds of environment calls for different navigation and/or locomotion functionalities, especially if the robot is endowed with different locomotion abilities, such as the robots WorkPartner, Hylos [4], Nomad or the Marsokhod rovers. Numerous rover navigation techniques have been proposed, each of them being suited to a particular environment context (e.g. path following, obstacle avoidance in more or less cluttered environments, rough terrain traverses...). However, seldom contributions in the literature tackle the problem of selecting autonomously the most suited mode [3]. Most of the existing work is indeed devoted to the passive analysis of a single navigation mode, as in [2]. Fault detection is of course essential: one can imagine that a proper monitoring of the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity could have avoided the rover to be stuck during several weeks in a dune, by detecting non-nominal behavior of some parameters. But the ability to recover the anticipated problem by switching to a better suited navigation mode would bring higher autonomy abilities, and therefore a better overall efficiency. We propose here a probabilistic framework to achieve this, which fuses environment related and robot related information in order to actively control the rover operations.

Selection et controle de modes de deplacement pour un robot mobile autonome en environnements naturels

Autonomous navigation and locomotion of a mobile robot in natural environments remain a rather open issue. Several functionalities are required to complete the usual perception/decision/action cycle. They can be divided in two main categories : navigation (perception and decision about the movement) and locomotion (movement execution). In order to be able to face the large range of possible situations in natural environments, it is essential to make use of various kinds of complementary functionalities, defining various navigation and locomotion modes. Indeed, a number of navigation and locomotion approaches have been proposed in the literature for the last years, but none can pretend being able to achieve autonomous navigation and locomotion in every situation. Thus, it seems relevant to endow an outdoor mobile robot with several complementary navigation and locomotion modes. Accordingly, the robot must also have means to select the most appropriate mode to apply. This thesis proposes the development of such a navigation/locomotion mode selection system, based on two types of data: an observation of the context to determine in what kind of situation the robot has to achieve its movement and an evaluation of the behavior of the current mode, made by monitors which influence the transitions towards other modes when the behavior of the current one is considered as non satisfying. Hence, this document introduces a probabilistic framework for the estimation of the mode to be applied, some navigation and locomotion modes used, a qualitative terrain representation method (based on the evaluation of a difficulty computed from the placement of the robot's structure on a digital elevation map), and monitors that check the behavior of the modes used (evaluation of rolling locomotion efficiency, robot's attitude and configuration watching. . .). Some experimental results obtained with those elements integrated on board two different outdoor robots are presented and discussed.

Exploring the international market selection of small to medium sized enterprises

Research into the international market selection (IMS) of small to medium sized enterprises (SMEs) commonly identifies psychic distance and networks as being the most important determinants of a firm’s IMS. Whether regional factors, such as bilateral and multilateral regional integration, are important as determinants of IMS is not well understood. This paper utilises a multiple case study method through in-depth interviews to investigate, in the context of the current business environment, how important regionalisation, psychic distance and networks are as determinants of IMS among SMEs in the food and beverage industries within Australia and Malaysia. The study found regional considerations to be important to the IMS of Malaysian but not Australian firms, while psychic distance was considered an important determinant on IMS by only half of the sampled firms. The role of networks, however, was considered the most important determinant of IMS among all the sampled firms.

Optimization of an integrated model for automatic reduction and expansion of long queries

A long query provides more useful hints for searching relevant documents, but it is likely to introduce noise which affects retrieval performance. In order to smooth such adverse effect, it is important to reduce noisy terms, introduce and boost additional relevant terms. This paper presents a comprehensive framework, called Aspect Hidden Markov Model (AHMM), which integrates query reduction and expansion, for retrieval with long queries. It optimizes the probability distribution of query terms by utilizing intra-query term dependencies as well as the relationships between query terms and words observed in relevance feedback documents. Empirical evaluation on three large-scale TREC collections demonstrates that our approach, which is automatic, achieves salient improvements over various strong baselines, and also reaches a comparable performance to a state of the art method based on user’s interactive query term reduction and expansion.

Consultant engagement for computer system selection: a pro-active client role in small enterprises

Because of their limited number of senior positions and fewer alternative career paths, small businesses have a more difficult time attracting and retaining skilled information systems (IS) staff and are thus dependent upon external expertise. Small businesses are particularly dependent on outside expertise when first computerizing. Because small businesses suffer from severe financial constraints. it is often difficult to justify the cost of custom software. Hence. for many small businesses, engaging a consultant to help with identifying suitable packaged software and related hardware, is their first critical step toward computerization. This study explores the importance of proactive client involvement when engaging a consultant to assist with computer system selection in small businesses. Client involvement throughout consultant engagement is found to be integral to project success and frequently lacking due to misconceptions of small businesses regarding their role. Small businesses often overestimate the impact of consultant and vendor support in achieving successful computer system selection and implementation. For consultant engagement to be successful, the process must be viewed as being directed toward the achievement of specific organizational results where the client accepts responsibility for direction of the process.

Discussion of : constructing summary statistics for approximate Bayesian computation: semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation

This is a discussion of the journal article: "Construcing summary statistics for approximate Bayesian computation: semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation". The article and discussion have appeared in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology).

A Satellite Selection Algorithm for Achieving High Reliability of Ambiguity Resolution with GPS and Beidou Constellations

Reliability of carrier phase ambiguity resolution (AR) of an integer least-squares (ILS) problem depends on ambiguity success rate (ASR), which in practice can be well approximated by the success probability of integer bootstrapping solutions. With the current GPS constellation, sufficiently high ASR of geometry-based model can only be achievable at certain percentage of time. As a result, high reliability of AR cannot be assured by the single constellation. In the event of dual constellations system (DCS), for example, GPS and Beidou, which provide more satellites in view, users can expect significant performance benefits such as AR reliability and high precision positioning solutions. Simply using all the satellites in view for AR and positioning is a straightforward solution, but does not necessarily lead to high reliability as it is hoped. The paper presents an alternative approach that selects a subset of the visible satellites to achieve a higher reliability performance of the AR solutions in a multi-GNSS environment, instead of using all the satellites. Traditionally, satellite selection algorithms are mostly based on the position dilution of precision (PDOP) in order to meet accuracy requirements. In this contribution, some reliability criteria are introduced for GNSS satellite selection, and a novel satellite selection algorithm for reliable ambiguity resolution (SARA) is developed. The SARA algorithm allows receivers to select a subset of satellites for achieving high ASR such as above 0.99. Numerical results from a simulated dual constellation cases show that with the SARA procedure, the percentages of ASR values in excess of 0.99 and the percentages of ratio-test values passing the threshold 3 are both higher than those directly using all satellites in view, particularly in the case of dual-constellation, the percentages of ASRs (>0.99) and ratio-test values (>3) could be as high as 98.0 and 98.5 % respectively, compared to 18.1 and 25.0 % without satellite selection process. It is also worth noting that the implementation of SARA is simple and the computation time is low, which can be applied in most real-time data processing applications.

Automatic de-identification of electronic health records : an Australian perspective

We present an approach to automatically de-identify health records. In our approach, personal health information is identified using a Conditional Random Fields machine learning classifier, a large set of linguistic and lexical features, and pattern matching techniques. Identified personal information is then removed from the reports. The de-identification of personal health information is fundamental for the sharing and secondary use of electronic health records, for example for data mining and disease monitoring. The effectiveness of our approach is first evaluated on the 2007 i2b2 Shared Task dataset, a widely adopted dataset for evaluating de-identification techniques. Subsequently, we investigate the robustness of the approach to limited training data; we study its effectiveness on different type and quality of data by evaluating the approach on scanned pathology reports from an Australian institution. This data contains optical character recognition errors, as well as linguistic conventions that differ from those contained in the i2b2 dataset, for example different date formats. The findings suggest that our approach compares to the best approach from the 2007 i2b2 Shared Task; in addition, the approach is found to be robust to variations of training size, data type and quality in presence of sufficient training data.

Automatic classification of free-text radiology reports to identify limb fractures using machine learning and the SNOMED CT ontology

Objective To develop and evaluate machine learning techniques that identify limb fractures and other abnormalities (e.g. dislocations) from radiology reports. Materials and Methods 99 free-text reports of limb radiology examinations were acquired from an Australian public hospital. Two clinicians were employed to identify fractures and abnormalities from the reports; a third senior clinician resolved disagreements. These assessors found that, of the 99 reports, 48 referred to fractures or abnormalities of limb structures. Automated methods were then used to extract features from these reports that could be useful for their automatic classification. The Naive Bayes classification algorithm and two implementations of the support vector machine algorithm were formally evaluated using cross-fold validation over the 99 reports. Result Results show that the Naive Bayes classifier accurately identifies fractures and other abnormalities from the radiology reports. These results were achieved when extracting stemmed token bigram and negation features, as well as using these features in combination with SNOMED CT concepts related to abnormalities and disorders. The latter feature has not been used in previous works that attempted classifying free-text radiology reports. Discussion Automated classification methods have proven effective at identifying fractures and other abnormalities from radiology reports (F-Measure up to 92.31%). Key to the success of these techniques are features such as stemmed token bigrams, negations, and SNOMED CT concepts associated with morphologic abnormalities and disorders. Conclusion This investigation shows early promising results and future work will further validate and strengthen the proposed approaches.