Ship-board measurements and estimations of air-sea fluxes in the western tropical Pacific during TOGA COARE

Direct air-sea flux measurements were made on RN Kexue #1 at 40 degrees S, 156 degrees E during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Response Experiment (COARE) Intensive Observation Period (IOP). An array of six accelerometers was used to measure the motion of the anchored ship, and a sonic anemometer and Lyman-alpha hygrometer were used to measure the turbulent wind vector and specific humidity. The contamination of the turbulent wind components by ship motion was largely removed by an improvement of a procedure due to Shao based on the acceleration signals. The scheme of the wind correction for ship motion is briefly outlined. Results are presented from data for the best wind direction relative to the ship to minimize flow distortion effects. Both the time series and the power spectra of the sonic-measured wind components show swell-induced ship motion contamination, which is largely removed by the accelerometer correction scheme, There was less contamination in the longitudinal wind component than in the vertical and transverse components. The spectral characteristics of the surface-layer turbulence properties are compared with those from previous land and ocean results, Momentum and latent heat fluxes were calculated by eddy correlation and compared to those estimated by the inertial dissipation method and the TOGA COARE bulk formula. The estimations of wind stress determined by eddy correlation are smaller than those from the TOGA COARE bulk formula, especially for higher wind speeds, while those from the bulk formula and inertial dissipation technique are generally in agreement. The estimations of latent heal flux from the three different methods are in reasonable agreement. The effect of the correction for ship motion on latent heat fluxes is not as large as on momentum fluxes.

IMPACTS OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC COUPLED PROCESS ON THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN

The basic features of climatology and interannual variations of tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans were analyzed using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM), which was constituted with an intermediate 2.5-layer ocean model and atmosphere model ECHAM4. The CGCM well captures the spatial and temporal structure of the Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the variability features in the tropical Indian Ocean. The influence of Pacific air-sea coupled process on the Indian Ocean variability was investigated carefully by conducting numerical experiments. Results show that the occurrence frequency of positive/negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event will decrease/increase with the presence/absence of the coupled process in the Pacific Ocean. Further analysis demonstrated that the air-sea coupled process in the Pacific Ocean affects the IOD variability mainly by influencing the zonal gradient of thermocline via modulating the background sea surface wind.

Numerical study on the velocity structure around tidal fronts in the Yellow Sea

The velocity components across tidal fronts are examined using the Blumberg and Mellor 3-D nonlinear numerical coastal circulation model incorporated with the Mellor and Yamada level 2.5 turbulent closure model based on the reasonable model output of the M-2 tide and density residual currents. In the numerical experiments, upwelling motion appears around all the fronts with different velocity structures, accounting for surface cold water around the fronts. The experiments also suggest that the location and formation of fronts are closely related to topography and tidal mixing, as is the velocity structure around the front.

Seasonal and interannual variation in water vapor and energy exchange over a typical steppe in Inner Mongolia, China

In this study, we conducted eddy covariance (EC) measurements of water vapor exchange over a typical steppe in a semi-arid area of the Inner Mongolia Plateau, China. Measurement sites were located within a 25-year-old enclosure with a relatively low leaf area index (similar to 1. 5 m(2) m(-2)) and dominated by Leymus chinensis. Energy balance closure was (H + LE) = 17.09 + 0.69 x (Rn - G) (W/m(2); r(2) = 0.95, n = 6596). Precipitation during the two growing seasons of the study period was similar to the long-term average. The peak evapotranspiration in 2004 was 4 mm d(-1), and 3.5 mm d(-1) in 2003. The maximum latent heat flux was higher than the sensible heat flux, and the sensible heat flux dominated the energy budget at midday during the entire growing season in 2003; latent heat flux was the main consumption component for net radiation during the 2004 growing season. During periods of frozen soil in 2003 and 2004, the sensible heat flux was the primary consumption component for net radiation. The soil heat flux component was similar in 2003 and 2004. The decoupling coefficient (between 0.5 and 0.1) indicates that evapotranspiration was strongly controlled by saturation water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in this grassland. The results of this research suggest that energy exchange and evapotranspiration were controlled by the phenology of the vegetation and soil water content. In addition, the amount and frequency of rainfall significantly affect energy exchange and evapotranspiration upon the Inner Mongolia plateau. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Depression of net ecosystem CO2 exchange in semi-arid Leymus chinensis steppe and alpine shrub

Uptake and release of carbon in grassland ecosystems is very critical to the global carbon balance and carbon storage. In this study, the dynamics of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (FNEE) of two grassland ecosystems were observed continuously using the eddy covariance technique during the growing season of 2003. One is the alpine shrub on the Tibet Plateau, and the other is the sem-arid Leymus chinensis steppe in Inner Mongolia of China. It was found that the FNEE of both ecosystems was significantly depressed under high solar radiation. Comprehensive analysis indicates that the depression of FNEE in the L. chinensis steppe was the results of decreased plant photosynthesis and increased ecosystem respiration (R-eco) under high temperature. Soil water stress in addition to the high atmospheric demand under the strong radiation was the primary factor limiting the stomatal conductance. In contrast, the depression of FNEE in the alpine shrub was closely related to the effects of temperature on both photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration, coupled with the reduction of plant photosynthesis due to partial stomatal closure under high temperature at mid-day. The R,c of the alpine shrub was sensitive to soil temperature during high turbulence (u* > 0.2 m s(-1)) but its FNEE decreased markedly when the temperature was higher than the optimal value of about 12 degrees C. Such low optimal temperature contrasted the optimal value (about 20 degrees C) for the steppe, and was likely due to the acclimation of most alpine plants to the long-term low temperature on the Tibet Plateau. We inferred that water stress was the primary factor causing depression of the FNEE in the semi-arid steppe ecosystem, while relative high temperature under strong solar radiation was the main reason for the decrease of FNEE in the alpine shrub. This study implies that different grassland ecosystems may respond differently to climate change in the future. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

The role of evacuation and fire modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process and aircraft fire have a role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementaion of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuum accident investigation. As the cost and risk involved in performing large-scale fire/evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Very Large Aircraft' (VLA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. By describing the present capabililties and limitations of the EXODUS evacuation model and associated fire models, this paper will examine the future development and data requirements of these models.

AASK - Aircraft accident statistics and knowledge: A database of human experience in evacuation, derived from aviation accident reports

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in aviation safety. However such models have a heavy dependency on real evacuation data in order to (a) identify the key processes and factors associated with evacuation, (b) quantify variables and parameters associated with the identified factors/processes and finally (c) validate the models. The Fire Safety Engineering Group of the University of Greenwich is undertaking a large data extraction exercise from three major data sources in order to address these issues. This paper describes the extraction and application of data from one of these sources - aviation accident reports. To aid in the storage and analysis of the raw data, a computer database known as AASK (aircraft accident statistics and knowledge) is under development. AASK is being developed to store human observational and anecdotal data contained in accident reports and interview transcripts. AASK comprises four component sub-databases. These consist of the ACCIDENT (crash details), FLIGHT ATTENDANT (observations and actions of the flight attendants), FATALS (details concerning passenger fatalities) and PAX (observations and accounts from individual passengers) databases. AASK currently contains information from 25 survivable aviation accidents covering the period 4 April 1977 to 6 August 1995, involving some 2415 passengers, 2210 survivors, 205 fatalities and accounts from 669 people. In addition to aiding the development of aircraft evacuation models, AASK is also being used to challenge some of the myths which proliferate in the aviation safety industry such as, passenger exit selection during evacuation, nature and frequency of seat jumping, speed of passenger response and group dynamics. AASK can also be used to aid in the development of a more comprehensive approach to conducting post accident interviews, and will eventually be used to store the data directly.

The role of evacuation modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. In this paper the capabilities and limitation of the air-EXODUS evacuation model are described. Its successful application to the prediction of a recent certificaiton trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. Finally, the data requirements of aircraft evacuation models is discussed along with several projects currently underway at the University of Greenwich designed to obtain this data. Included in this discussion is a description of the AASK - Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge - data base which contains detailed information from aircraft accident survivors.

An aircraft accident database of human experience in evacuation derived from aviation accident reports

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in aviation safety. However, such models have a heavy dependency on real evacuation data. The Fire Safety Engineering Group of the University of Greenwich is undertaking a large data extraction exercise in order to address this issue. This paper describes the extraction and application of data from aviation accident reports. To aid in the storage and analysis of the raw data, a computer database known as AASK (Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge) is under development. AASK is being developed to store human observational and anecdotal data contained in accident reports and interview transcripts. AASK currently contains information from 25 survivable aviation accidents covering the period 04/04/77 to 06/08/95, involving some 2415 passengers, 2210 survivors, 205 fatalities and accounts from 669 people. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The use of evacuation modelling techniques in the design of very large transport aircraft and blended wing body aircraft

Very Large Transport Aircraft (VLTA) pose considerable challenges to designers, operators and certification authorities. Questions concerning seating arrangement, nature and design of recreational space, the number, design and location of internal staircases, the number of cabin crew required and the nature of the cabin crew emergency procedures are just some of the issues that need to be addressed. Other more radical concepts such as blended wing body (BWB) design, involving one or two decks with possibly four or more aisles offer even greater challenges. Can the largest exits currently available cope with passenger flow arising from four or five aisles? Do we need to consider new concepts in exit design? Should the main aisles be made wider to accommodate more passengers? In this paper we demonstrate how computer based evacuation models can be used to investigate these issues through examination of staircase evacuation procedures for VLTA and aisle/exit configuration for BWB cabin layouts.