Sagittal movement of the medial longitudinal arch is unchanged in plantar fasciitis

Background: Although a lowered medial longitudinal arch has been cited as a causal factor in plantar fasciitis, there is little experimental evidence linking arch motion to the pathogenesis of the condition. This study investigated the sagittal movement of the arch in subjects with and without plantar fasciitis during gait. Methods: Digital fluoroscopy was used to acquire dynamic lateral radiographs from 10 subjects with unilateral plantar fasciitis and 10 matched control subjects. The arch angle and the first metatarsophalangeal joint angle were digitized and their respective maxima recorded. Sagittal movement of the arch was defined as the angular change between heel strike and the maximum arch angle observed during the stance phase of gait. The-thickness of the proximal plantar fascia was determined from sagittal sonograms of both feet. ANOVA models were used to identify differences between limbs with respect to each dependent variable. Relationships between arch movement and fascial thickness were investigated using correlations. Results: There was no significant difference in either the movement or maximum arch angle between limbs. However, subjects with plantar fasciitis were found to have a larger metatarsophalangeal joint angle than controls (P < 0.05). Whereas the symptomatic and asymptomatic plantar fascia were thicker than those of control feet (P < 0.05), significant correlations were noted between fascial thickness and peak arch and metatarsophalangeal joint angles (P < 0.05) in the symptomatic limb only. Conclusions: Neither abnormal shape nor movement of the arch are associated with chronic plantar fasciitis. However, arch mechanics may influence the severity of plantar fasciitis once the condition is present. Digital flexion, in contrast, has a protective role in what might be a bilateral disease process.

Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

The predictive accuracy of competing crude-oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994–2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH type models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward-looking information that is embedded in the prices of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non-parametric adjustments of risk-neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness-of-fit tests and out-of-sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:727–754, 2011

Split-ARCH

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62M10