Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis

Global hydrological models (GHMs) model the land surface hydrologic dynamics of continental-scale river basins. Here we describe one such GHM, the Macro-scale - Probability-Distributed Moisture model.09 (Mac-PDM.09). The model has undergone a number of revisions since it was last applied in the hydrological literature. This paper serves to provide a detailed description of the latest version of the model. The main revisions include the following: (1) the ability for the model to be run for n repetitions, which provides more robust estimates of extreme hydrological behaviour, (2) the ability of the model to use a gridded field of coefficient of variation (CV) of daily rainfall for the stochastic disaggregation of monthly precipitation to daily precipitation, and (3) the model can now be forced with daily input climate data as well as monthly input climate data. We demonstrate the effects that each of these three revisions has on simulated runoff relative to before the revisions were applied. Importantly, we show that when Mac-PDM.09 is forced with monthly input data, it results in a negative runoff bias relative to when daily forcings are applied, for regions of the globe where the day-to-day variability in relative humidity is high. The runoff bias can be up to - 80% for a small selection of catchments but the absolute magnitude of the bias may be small. As such, we recommend future applications of Mac-PDM.09 that use monthly climate forcings acknowledge the bias as a limitation of the model. The performance of Mac-PDM.09 is evaluated by validating simulated runoff against observed runoff for 50 catchments. We also present a sensitivity analysis that demonstrates that simulated runoff is considerably more sensitive to method of PE calculation than to perturbations in soil moisture and field capacity parameters.

Comparative analysis by protocol and key of seed storage behaviour of sixty Vietnamese tree species

Seed storage behaviour of 5 1 native and 9 introduced tree species in Vietnam was investigated using a brief protocol developed to aid biodiversity conservation in circumstances where little is known about the seeds. Of the 60 species, 34 appeared to show orthodox (Acacia auriculaeformis, Adenanthera pavonina, Afzelia xylocarpa, Bauhinia purpurea, Callistemon lanceolatus, Cananga odorata, Canarium nigrum, Cassia fistula, Cassia javanica, Cassia splendida, Chukrasia tabularis, Dalbergia bariaensis, Dialium cochinchinensis, Diospyros mollis, Diospyros mun, Dracuntomelon duperreanum, Erythrophleum fordii, Khaya senegalensis, Lagerstroemia speciosa, Leucaena leucocephala, Livistona cochinchinensis, Markhamia stipulata, Melaleuca cajuputi, Millettia ichthyotona, Peltophorum pterocarpum, Peltophorum tonkinensis, Pinus khasya, Pinus massoniana, Pinus merkusii, Pterocarpus macrocarpus, Sindora siamensis, Sophora tonkinense, Sterculia foetida, Swietenia macrophylla), 13 recalcitrant (Avicennia alba, Beilschmiedia roxburghiana, Caryota mitis, Dimocarpus sp., Diospyros malabarica, Dipterocarpus chartaceus, Dypsis pinnatifrons, Hopea odorata, Lithocarpus gigantophylla, Machilus odoratissimus, Melanorrhoea laccifera, Melanorrhea usitata, Syzygium cinereum) and 13 intermediate (Anisoptera cochinchinensis, Aphanamixis polystachya, Averrhoa carambola, Carissa carandas, Chrysopylum cainito, Cinnamomum camphora, Citrofortunella microcarpa, Citrus grandis var. grandis, Elaeis guineensis, Hydnocarpus anthelmintica, Madhuca floribunda, Manilkara achras, Mimusops elengi) seed storage behaviour. A double-criteria key to estimate likely seed storage behaviour showed good agreement with the above: the key can reduce the workload of seed storage behaviour identification considerably.

Ranking efficiency units in DEA using bootstrapping an applied analysis for Slovenian farm data

This article explores how data envelopment analysis (DEA), along with a smoothed bootstrap method, can be used in applied analysis to obtain more reliable efficiency rankings for farms. The main focus is the smoothed homogeneous bootstrap procedure introduced by Simar and Wilson (1998) to implement statistical inference for the original efficiency point estimates. Two main model specifications, constant and variable returns to scale, are investigated along with various choices regarding data aggregation. The coefficient of separation (CoS), a statistic that indicates the degree of statistical differentiation within the sample, is used to demonstrate the findings. The CoS suggests a substantive dependency of the results on the methodology and assumptions employed. Accordingly, some observations are made on how to conduct DEA in order to get more reliable efficiency rankings, depending on the purpose for which they are to be used. In addition, attention is drawn to the ability of the SLICE MODEL, implemented in GAMS, to enable researchers to overcome the computational burdens of conducting DEA (with bootstrapping).

Synthesis, structural analysis, and magnetic behaviour of three fumarate bridged coordination polymers: five-fold interpenetrated diamond-like net of Ni-II, sheets of Ni-II and Co-II

The hydrothermal reactions of Ni(NO3)(2).6H(2)O, disodium fumarate (fum) and 1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethane (bpe)/1,3-bis(4-pyridyl) propane (bpp) in aqueous-methanol medium yield one 3-D and one 2-D metal-organic hybrid material, [Ni(fum)(bpe)] (1) and [Ni(fum)(bpp)(H2O)] (2), respectively. Complex 1 possesses a novel unprecedented structure, the first example of an "unusual mode" of a five-fold distorted interpenetrated network with metal-ligand linkages where the four six-membered windows in each adamantane-type cage are different. The structural characterization of complex 2 evidences a buckled sheet where nickel ions are in a distorted octahedral geometry, with two carboxylic groups, one acting as a bis-chelate, the other as a bis-monodentate ligand. The metal ion completes the coordination sphere through one water molecule and two bpp nitrogens in cis position. Variable-temperature magnetic measurements of complexes 1 and 2 reveal the existence of very weak antiferromagnetic intramolecular interactions and/or the presence of single-ion zero field splitting (D) of isolated Ni-II ions in both the compounds. Experimentally, both the J parameters are close, comparable and very small. Considering zero-field splitting of Ni-II, the calculated D values are in agreement with values reported in the literature for Ni-II ions. Complex 3, [{Co(phen)}(2)(fum)(2)] (phen=1,10-phenanthroline) is obtained by diffusing methanolic solution of 1,10-phenanthroline on an aqueous layer of disodium fumarate and Co(NO3)(2).6H(2)O. It consists of dimeric Co-II(phen) units, doubly bridged by carboxylate groups in a distorted syn-syn fashion. These fumarate anions act as bis-chelates to form corrugated sheets. The 2D layer has a (4,4) topology, with the nodes represented by the centres of the dimers. The magnetic data were fitted ignoring the very weak coupling through the fumarate pathway and using a dimer model.

Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence

There is a substantial literature which suggests that appraisals are smoothed and lag the true level of prices. This study combines a qualitative interview survey of the leading fund manager/owners in the UK and their appraisers with a empirical study of the number of appraisals which change each month within the IPD Monthly Index. The paper concentrates on how the appraisal process operates for commercial property performance measurement purposes. The survey interviews suggest that periodic appraisal services are consolidating in fewer firms and, within these major firms, appraisers adopt different approaches to changing appraisals on a period by period basis, with some wanting hard transaction evidence while others act on "softer' signals. The survey also indicates a seasonal effect with greater effort and information being applied to annual and quarterly appraisals than monthly. The analysis of the appraisals within the Investment Property Databank Monthly Index confirms this effect with around 5% more appraisals being moved at each quarter day than the other months. January and August have significantly less appraisal changes than other months.

Appraiser behaviour and appraisal smoothing: some qualitative and quantitative evidence

There is a substantial literature which suggests that appraisals are smoothed and lag the true level of prices. This study combines a qualitative interview survey of the leading fund manager/owners in the UK and their appraisers with a empirical study of the number of appraisals which change each month within the IPD Monthly Index. The paper concentrates on how the appraisal process operates for commercial real estate performance measurement purposes. The survey interviews suggest that periodic appraisal services are consolidating in fewer firms and, within these major firms, appraisers adopt different approaches to changing appraisals on a period by period basis, with some wanting hard transaction evidence while others act on ‘softer’ signals. The survey also indicates a seasonal effect with greater effort and information being applied to annual and quarterly appraisals than monthly. The analysis of the appraisals within the IPD Monthly Index confirms this effect with around 5% more appraisals being moved at each quarter day than the other months. More November appraisals change than expected and this suggests that the increased information flows for the December end year appraisals are flowing through into earlier appraisals, especially as client/appraiser draft appraisal meetings for the December appraisals, a regular occurrence in the UK, can occur in November. January illustrates significantly less activity than other months, a seasonal effect after the exertions of the December appraisals.

Continental shift? An analysis of convergence trends in European real estate equities

European economic and political integration have been recognised as having implications for patterns of performance in national real estate and capital markets and have generated a wide body of research and commentary. In 1999, progress towards monetary integration within the European Union culminated in the introduction of a common currency and monetary policy. This paper investigates the effects of this ‘event’ on the behaviour of stock returns in European real estate companies. A range of statistical tests is applied to the performance of European property companies to test for changes in segmentation, co-movement and causality. The results suggest that, relative to the wider equity markets, the dispersion of performance is higher, correlations are lower, a common contemporaneous factor has much lower explanatory power whilst lead-lag relationships are stronger. Consequently, the evidence of transmission of monetary integration to real estate securities is less noticeable than to general securities. Less and slower integration is attributed to the relatively small size of the real estate securities market and the local and national nature of the majority of the companies’ portfolios.

Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures.

The potential inefficiency of using marketing margins in applied commodity price analysis, forecasting and risk management

This paper examines the implications of using marketing margins in applied commodity price analysis. The marketing-margin concept has a long and distinguished history, but it has caused considerable controversy. This is particularly the case in the context of analyzing the distribution of research gains in multi-stage production systems. We derive optimal tax schemes for raising revenues to finance research and promotion in a downstream market, derive the rules for efficient allocation of the funds, and compare the rules with an without the marketing-margin assumption. Applying the methodology to quarterly time series on the Australian beef-cattle sector and, with several caveats, we conclude that, during the period 1978:2 - 1988:4, the Australian Meat and Livestock Corporation optimally allocated research resources.

Haplotype analysis of vernalization loci in European barley germplasm reveals novel VRN-H1 alleles and a predominant winter VRN-H1/VRN-H2 multi-locus haplotype

In barley, variation in the requirement for vernalization (an extended period of low temperature before flowering can occur) is determined by the VRN-H1, -H2 and -H3 loci. In European cultivated germplasm, most variation in vernalization requirement is accounted for by alleles at VRN-H1 and VRN-H2 only, but the range of allelic variation is largely unexplored. Here we characterise VRN-H1 and VRN-H2 haplotypes in 429 varieties representing a large portion of the acreage sown to barley in Western Europe over the last 60 years. Analysis of genotype, intron I sequencing data and growth habit tests identified three novel VRN-H1 alleles and determined the most frequent VRN-H1 intron I rearrangements. Combined analysis of VRN-H1 and VRN-H2 alleles resulted in the classification of seventeen VRN-H1/VRN-H2 multi-locus haplotypes, three of which account for 79% of varieties. The molecular markers employed here represent powerful diagnostic tools for prediction of growth habit and assessment of varietal purity. These markers will also allow development of germplasm to test the behaviour of individual alleles with the aim of understanding the relationship between allelic variation and adaptation to specific agri-environments.

The influence of system designer intention over collaborative tagging. an analysis of tagging behaviour in CiteULike and Delicious

Tagging provides support for retrieval and categorization of online content depending on users' tag choice. A number of models of tagging behaviour have been proposed to identify factors that are considered to affect taggers, such as users' tagging history. In this paper, we use Semiotics Analysis and Activity theory, to study the effect the system designer has over tagging behaviour. The framework we use shows the components that comprise the tagging system and how they interact together to direct tagging behaviour. We analysed two collaborative tagging systems: CiteULike and Delicious by studying their components by applying our framework. Using datasets from both systems, we found that 35% of CiteULike users did not provide tags compared to only 0.1% of Delicious users. This was directly linked to the type of tools used by the system designer to support tagging.

Setting UK standards on the concept of control: an analysis of lobbying behaviour

The present study aims to contribute to an understanding of the complexity of lobbying activities within the accounting standard-setting process in the UK. The paper reports detailed content analysis of submission letters to four related exposure drafts. These preceded two accounting standards that set out the concept of control used to determine the scope of consolidation in the UK, except for reporting under international standards. Regulation on the concept of control provides rich patterns of lobbying behaviour due to its controversial nature and its significance to financial reporting. Our examination is conducted by dividing lobbyists into two categories, corporate and non-corporate, which are hypothesised (and demonstrated) to lobby differently. In order to test the significance of these differences we apply ANOVA techniques and univariate regression analysis. Corporate respondents are found to devote more attention to issues of specific applicability of the concept of control, whereas non-corporate respondents tend to devote more attention to issues of general applicability of this concept. A strong association between the issues raised by corporate respondents and their line of business is revealed. Both categories of lobbyists are found to advance conceptually-based arguments more often than economic consequences-based or combined arguments. However, when economic consequences-based arguments are used, they come exclusively from the corporate category of respondents.