Importance of background rates of disease in assessment of vaccine safety during mass immunisation with pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccines

Because of the advent of a new influenza A H1N1. strain, many countries have begun mass immunisation programmes. Awareness of the background rates of possible adverse events will be a crucial part of assessment of possible vaccine safety concerns and will help to separate legitimate safety concerns from events that are temporally associated with but not caused by vaccination. We identified background rates of selected medical events for several countries. Rates of disease events varied by age, sex, method of ascertainment, and geography. Highly visible health conditions, such as Guillain-Barre syndrome, spontaneous abortion, or even death, will occur in coincident temporal association with novel influenza vaccination. On the basis of the reviewed data, if a cohort of 10 million individuals was vaccinated in the UK, 21.5 cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome and 5.75 cases of sudden death would be expected to occur within 6 weeks of vaccination as coincident background cases. In female vaccinees in the USA, 86.3 cases of optic neuritis per 10 million population would be expected within 6 weeks of vaccination. 397 per 1 million vaccinated pregnant women would be predicted to have a spontaneous abortion within 1 day of vaccination.

Evaluation of distances between the mandibular teeth and the alveolar process in Brazilians with normal occlusion

Introduction: The aims of this study were to evaluate the distances between the mandibular permanent teeth and the alveolar process in Brazilians with normal occlusion and to compare them with normal American values. Methods: We used 59 mandibular casts from untreated subjects who had permanent dentition and the 6 keys to normal occlusion. A computer program was used to calculate the distances between the dental reference points and the alveolar process for each tooth. The mean values were then compared to the normal values by applying the Student t test at a significance level of 0.05. Results: The results showed a progressive increase of these distances from the anterior region (incisors) to the posterior region (molars), from 0.00 to 2.49 mm. All measurements had statistically significant differences from the American sample, except for the values for canines and first premolars. Conclusions: Brazilians with normal occlusion have more lingual crown positions for the incisors, second premolars, and molars compared with Americans with normal occlusion. Although these findings were statistically significant, they are unlikely to be clinically significant. (Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop 2010; 137: 308.e1-308.e4)

Valproic acid has temporal variability in urinary clearance of metabolites

The reasons for the intra- and interindividual variability in the clearance of valproic acid (VPA) have not been completely characterized. The aim of this study was to examine day-night changes in the clearance of 3-oxo-valproate (3-oxo-VPA), 4-hydroxy-valproate (4-OH-VPA), and valproic acid glucuronides under steady state. Six diurnally active healthy male volunteers ingested 200 mg sodium valproate 12 hourly, at 0800 and 2000, for 28 days. On the last study day, two sequential 12-h urine samples were collected commencing at 2000 the evening before. Plasma samples were obtained at the end of each collection. Following alkaline hydrolysis, urine was analyzed for concentrations of VPA, 3-oxo-VPA, and 4-OH-VPA. A separate aliquot was assayed for creatinine (CR). The plasma concentrations of VPA, 3-oxo-VPA, 2-en-VPA, and CR were determined. The analysis of VPA and its metabolites was performed by CC-MS. There was an increase in plasma 3-oxo-VPA concentration at 0800, sampling as compared to 2000 sampling (p < .05). The urinary excretion of 3-oxo-VPA and VPA glucuronides were decreased between 2000 and 0800, compared to between 0800, and 2000, by 30% and 50% respectively (p < .05). These results indicate a nocturnal decrease in renal clearance of 3-oxo-VPA rather than a decrease in the beta -oxidation of VPA at night. These differences were not explained by differences between the sampling periods in CR excretion. These results indicate the importance of collecting samples of 24-h duration when studying metabolic profiles of VPA.

Anxious futures: Magpie2 and 'new generationalism' in Australian youth-specific theatre

The field of contemporary youth-specific theatre in Australia is one of change and, in some cases, anxiety. While Drama Studies continue to grow in popularity in schools, previously conventional developmental paradigms have become less mandatory for theatre, for, by, and about young people outside the school context. Instead, 'new generation' approaches in youth-specific performance are placing greater value on young people's own preferences in cultural activity. Yet this development is being tempered and further complicated by a cultural 'generationalism', particularly in larger arts organization as the youth sector becomes a more integral part of marketing strategies for the future. The resulting ambiguity in the representation, value, and positioning of young people and youth-specific arts in Australia's theatre industry is considered by focusing on Magpie2, a former youth-specific company attached to the State Theatre Company of South Australia. Magpie2 ceased operation in 1998 after experimenting with a 'new generation' approach to theatre for young people in the State Theatre realm. Both the artistic policy of Magpie2 Director, Benedict Andrews, and the critical reception of his two productions in 1997, Future Tense and Features of Blown Youth, demonstrate how competing systems of cultural value characterize the field of youth-specific theatre in Australia.

Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using postoperative cardiac troponin-I (cTi) levels to detect myocardial ischaemia in patients undergoing vascular surgery

Background, Cardiac complications occur commonly in vascular surgery patients. Diagnosis of cardiac complications is difficult because of the inaccuracies associated with traditional cardiac enzyme measurements. CTi, a highly sensitive and specific marker of myocardial injury, may be able to detect cardiac complications with greater ease and accuracy. Methods. The study prospectively examined 100 consecutive patients who underwent major vascular surgery between 6/7/98 and 31/12/98 at the Royal Brisbane Hospital. Daily measurements of cTi, creatine kinase (CK), creatine kinase MB (CKMB), CKMB index, renal function and haemoglobin were taken for three postoperative days. One postoperative electrocardiograph (ECC) was taken. An extensive cardiac history was taken. Intraoperative and postoperative events were recorded. Findings. There were 100 patients, 18 patients (18%) had a cTi elevation. On the basis of classical diagnostic criteria, 15 patients (15%) suffered one or more cardiac complication (either myocardial infarction, congestive cardiac failure, unstable angina or atrial fibrillation), One patient (1%) who had a cTi elevation died. CTI elevation occurred in five patients (5%) who were not diagnosed with cardiac complications based on traditional criteria. Despite not meeting specific diagnostic criteria for cardiac complications, all patients showed signs and symptoms that could be attributed to myocardial ischaemia, Every patient who developed congestive cardiac failure or atrial fibrillation had a cTi elevation. A Chi-square analysis revealed a significant association between cTi elevation and postoperative cardiac complications. Four variables contributed small but significant amounts of unique variance to the prediction of peak cTi on linear regression analysis. These were peak CKMB index, postoperative congestive cardiac failure, postoperative chest pain and postoperative cardiac complications. Conclusions. Routine cTi monitoring of postoperative vascular patients would be an effective and inexpensive way to detect patients with cardiac complications. The relationship between postoperative cTi elevation and significant coronary artery disease remains to be shown, (C) 2001 The international Society for Cardiovascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mobile digital technology: Emerging issues for marketing

The growth of direct marketing has been attributed to rapid advances in technology and the changing market context. The fundamental ability of direct marketers to communicate with consumers and to elicit a response, combined with the ubiquitous nature and power of mobile digital technology, provides a synergy that will increase the potential for the success of direct marketing. The aim of this paper is to provide an analytical framework identifying the developments in the digital environment from e-marketing to m-marketing, and to alert direct marketers to the enhanced capabilities available to them.

Young children's performance on the balance scale: The influence of relational complexity

Three experiments investigated the effect of complexity on children's understanding of a beam balance. In nonconflict problems, weights or distances varied, while the other was held constant. In conflict items, both weight and distance varied, and items were of three kinds: weight dominant, distance dominant, or balance (in which neither was dominant). In Experiment 1, 2-year-old children succeeded on nonconflict-weight and nonconflict-distance problems. This result was replicated in Experiment 2, but performance on conflict items did not exceed chance. In Experiment 3, 3- and 4-year-olds succeeded on all except conflict balance problems, while 5- and 6-year-olds succeeded on all problem types. The results were interpreted in terms of relational complexity theory. Children aged 2 to 4 years succeeded on problems that entailed binary relations, but 5- and 6-year-olds also succeeded on problems that entailed ternary relations. Ternary relations tasks from other domains-transitivity and class inclusion-accounted for 93% of the age-related variance in balance scale scores. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

A cognitive complexity metric applied to cognitive development

Two experiments tested predictions from a theory in which processing load depends on relational complexity (RC), the number of variables related in a single decision. Tasks from six domains (transitivity, hierarchical classification, class inclusion, cardinality, relative-clause sentence comprehension, and hypothesis testing) were administered to children aged 3-8 years. Complexity analyses indicated that the domains entailed ternary relations (three variables). Simpler binary-relation (two variables) items were included for each domain. Thus RC was manipulated with other factors tightly controlled. Results indicated that (i) ternary-relation items were more difficult than comparable binary-relation items, (ii) the RC manipulation was sensitive to age-related changes, (iii) ternary relations were processed at a median age of 5 years, (iv) cross-task correlations were positive, with all tasks loading on a single factor (RC), (v) RC factor scores accounted for 80% (88%) of age-related variance in fluid intelligence (compositionality of sets), (vi) binary- and ternary-relation items formed separate complexity classes, and (vii) the RC approach to defining cognitive complexity is applicable to different content domains. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.