Innovative methods for assessing viability of diversification into new markets : a study based on an engineering consultancy

This study resulted in the development of a decision making tool for engineering consultancies looking to diversify into new markets. It reviewed existing decision tools used by contractor's entering new markets to develop a bespoke tool for engineering consultants to establish more rigor around the decision making process rather than rely purely on the intuition of company executives. The tool can be used for developing medium and long term company strategies or as a quick and efficient way to assess the viability of new market opportunities when they arise. A combination of Delphi and Analytical Hierarchy Process was selected as the basis of the decision theory.

Assessing the integrated sustainability of a public rental housing project from the perspective of complex eco-system

Public rental housing (PRH) projects are the mainstream of China's new affordable housing policies, and their integrated sustainability has a far-reaching effect on medium-low income families' well-being and social stability. However, there are few quantitative researches on the integrated sustainability of PRH projects. Our study tries to fill this gap through proposing an assessment model of the integrated sustainability for PRH projects. First, this paper defines what the sustainability of a PRH project is. Second, after constructing the sustainable system of a PRH project from the perspective of complex eco-system, the paper explores the internal operation mechanism and the coupling mechanism among the ecological, economic and social subsystems. Third, it identifies fourteen indices to represent the sustainability system of a PRH project, including six indices of ecological subsystem, five of economic subsystem and three of social subsystem. Fourth, it qualifies the weights of three subsystems and their internal representative indices. In addition, an assessment model is established through expert surveys and analytic network process (ANP). Finally, the paper carries out an empirical research on a PRH project in Nanjing city of China, followed by suggestions to enhance the integrated sustainability. The sustainability system and its evaluation model proposed in this paper are concise and easy to understand and can provide a theoretical foundation and a scientific basis for the evaluation and optimization of PRH projects.

孤岛油田曲流河微相单砂体储层建筑结构及挖潜方向研究

In the intermediary and later stage of oil field development, remaining oil disperses fiercely, the contradiction in the layer has become the main problem and the distribution of remaining oil is transforming to the difference of single sand-body. So, the fine description research of reservoir is becoming a tendency and the methods of remaining oil research need new developments. In the research of “The Single-sand-body Architectural Element and Potentiality Analysis Research of Meandering River, GuDao Oil Field”, the research principle is analytical hierarchy process and schema prescription what are reservoir fine description methods under the condition of dense well pattern. The knowledge of regional sedimentary system and sedimentary facies is the foundation of this research. According to the 3D distribution model of the microfacies sand-body of fluvial facies, stratigraphic unit classification & coenocorrelation of 154 wells are completed in the research of meandering river sand-body in Ng3-4. In this research, the 3D distribution of microfacies sand-body in the main layers are settled. The architectural element model of Ng4 point bar is analysed using the drill core and FMI data. According to the overgrow model of point bar, the surfaces of lateral accretion is traced and the architectural element model of point bar is settled. In the research, the control of micro-facies sand-body of meandering river to the distribution of remaining oil is analysed and the potential area is proposed. All these will play an important role in the development of GuDao oil field. In this research, abundant of logging data, drill core data and production performance data are used to analyse the contributing factor of single sand-body in the Ng3-4 meandering river. Using the technology of geological modeling, all that are researched including the 3D distribution scales of meandering river point bar, the control affection of inner lateral accretion layer to the distribution of oil & gas and remaining. Then, the way of remaining oil development in the sand-body of meandering river is improved. The innovation of the research technology includes (1) the presentation of the conception and research methods of micro-facies sand-body (2) enriching the content of reservoir architectural element research and (3) to renew the research method of remaining oil analysis. The research has practiced with obvious effect.(1)It is deepened into understand the river facies reservoir construction of Gudao oil field, By Building the reservoir construction and studying the effect of diffent deposit or geological interface to fluid partition and to the distribution of the remaining oil, we improved the understanding to the distribution of the remaining oil；(2)By building the distribution mod of the remaining oil in the reservoir construction and making the remaining oil description detailed,the development direction of old oil field is more clear；(3)Expanded the application scales of the horizontal well and enhanced the application effects of the horizontal well technique , we designed and drilled 23 ports horizontal wells in all , the cumulative hydrocarbon production is 10.6*104 t；(4) According to the findings of the internal building structure in reservoir of the fluvial facies in the region of interest, and uniting the injection/production corresponding states、the producing history and the dynamic monitoring documents of the oil/water wells in the flooding units , we researched the residual oil distribution in the point bar , and found the distribution regular patterns of the remaining oil, and comprehended the distribution of the remaining oil . In base of that , we proceeded the optimizing designs of the oil well potentialities , and advanced the effect of the treatment potentials . It is proved that , it was very important that internal building structure research of the single sand body of reservoir for guiding the high efficiency potentialities of the remaining oil in the high water cut stage .

黄骅坳陷大港探区油气资源潜力与资源结构预测

Facing the problems that Dagang region of Huanghua Depression has high exploration degree and its remaining resource potential and structure are not clear, the theory of Petroleum Accumulation System (PAS) is applied to divide and evaluate the oil/gas systems quantitatively. Then, the petroleum accumulation systems are taken as units to forecast and analyse the oil/gas resources and their structure using statistical methods of sampling analysis of discovery process model and generalized pareto distribution model. The exploration benefit of the unit is estimated using exploration simulation methods. On the basis of the above study, the resource potential of Huanghua Depression is discussed.Huanghua Depression can be diveded into four petroleum accumulation systems, i.e. North PAS5 Middle Qibei PAS, Middle Qinan PAS and South PAS. Each PAS can be diveded futher into several sub- PASs. Using the basic princple of Analytical Hierarchy Process, the method of quantitative evaluation of PAS is established. Then the elements and maturity of PAS are evaluated quantitatively.Taking migration and accumulation units and sub-PASs as prediction units, sampling analysis of discovery process model and generalized pareto distribution model are applied comparatively to forecast the resource structure of eight migration and accumulation units in six PASs of medium-high exploration degree. The results of these two methods are contrasted and analyzed. An examination of X2 data of these two models from exploration samples shows that generalized pareto distribution model is more effective than sampling analysis of discovery process model in Huanghua Depression. It is concluded that minimum and maximum size of reservoir and discovery sequence of reservoirs are the sensitive parameters of these two methods.Aiming at the difficult problem of forecast in low exploration degree, by analysis of relativity between resource parameters and their possible influential geological factors, forecast models for resource parameters were established by liner regressing. Then the resource structure is forecasted in PASs of low exploration degree.Based on the forecast results, beginning with the analysis of exploration history and benefit variation, the exploration benefit variation of the above PASs is fitted effectively using exploration simulation method. The single well exploration benefit of remaining oil resource is also forecasted reasonably.The results of resource forecast show that the total oil resources ofHuanghua Depression amount to 2.28 b illion ton. By the end o f 2 003, the accumulative total proved oil reserve is 0.90 billion ton and the remaining oil resources is 1.38 billion ton. The remaining oil resource is concentrated in Kongdian-Dengmingshi, Banqiao-Beidagang, Qidong-Yangerzhuang and Baidong-Qizhong sub-PASs.

Application of Fuzzy Variables for Systems of Management Decision Support

The following article describes an approach covering the variety of opinions and uncertainties of estimates within the chosen technique of decision support. Mathematical operations used for assessment of options are traced to operations of working with functions that are used for assessment of possible options of decision-making. Approach proposed could be used within any technique of decision support based on elementary mathematical operations. In this article the above-mentioned approach is described under analytical hierarchy process.

Validación Modelo Proceso Analítico de Redes (PAR)

El presente trabajo comprobará la validez del modelo de selección de mercados, llamado, Proceso Analítico de Redes, PAR. Esto con el objetivo de dar una propuesta alternativa a los modelos de selección que ya conocemos.

Key performance indicators (KPIs) and priority setting in using the multi-attribute approach for assessing sustainable intelligent buildings

The main objectives of this paper are to: firstly, identify key issues related to sustainable intelligent buildings (environmental, social, economic and technological factors); develop a conceptual model for the selection of the appropriate KPIs; secondly, test critically stakeholder's perceptions and values of selected KPIs intelligent buildings; and thirdly develop a new model for measuring the level of sustainability for sustainable intelligent buildings. This paper uses a consensus-based model (Sustainable Built Environment Tool- SuBETool), which is analysed using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) for multi-criteria decision-making. The use of the multi-attribute model for priority setting in the sustainability assessment of intelligent buildings is introduced. The paper commences by reviewing the literature on sustainable intelligent buildings research and presents a pilot-study investigating the problems of complexity and subjectivity. This study is based upon a survey perceptions held by selected stakeholders and the value they attribute to selected KPIs. It is argued that the benefit of the new proposed model (SuBETool) is a ‘tool’ for ‘comparative’ rather than an absolute measurement. It has the potential to provide useful lessons from current sustainability assessment methods for strategic future of sustainable intelligent buildings in order to improve a building's performance and to deliver objective outcomes. Findings of this survey enrich the field of intelligent buildings in two ways. Firstly, it gives a detailed insight into the selection of sustainable building indicators, as well as their degree of importance. Secondly, it tesst critically stakeholder's perceptions and values of selected KPIs intelligent buildings. It is concluded that the priority levels for selected criteria is largely dependent on the integrated design team, which includes the client, architects, engineers and facilities managers.

A multicriteria lifespan energy efficiency approach to intelligent building assessment

This paper presents a multicriteria decision-making model for lifespan energy efficiency assessment of intelligent buildings (IBs). The decision-making model called IBAssessor is developed using an analytic network process (ANP) method and a set of lifespan performance indicators for IBs selected by a new quantitative approach called energy-time consumption index (ETI). In order to improve the quality of decision-making, the authors of this paper make use of previous research achievements including a lifespan sustainable business model, the Asian IB Index, and a number of relevant publications. Practitioners can use the IBAssessor ANP model at different stages of an IB lifespan for either engineering or business oriented assessments. Finally, this paper presents an experimental case study to demonstrate how to use IBAssessor ANP model to solve real-world design tasks.

Information quality assessment in Korean manufacturing organization

Information quality is a complex problem. Issues relating to information quality are strongly embedded in the context of the operations of information systems. Information quality issues, therefore, have qualitative as well as quantitative underpinnings, which affect on the various dimensions of information quality. In order to improve information quality, it is essential to assess its various dimensions. This assessment provides the gaps that work as the building blocks for improving quality of information. However, assessing information quality dimensions is extremely intricate because each dimension depends upon other dimensions, which makes it difficult to objectively assess these dimensions. This research utilizes a product perspective of information and applies Six-Sigma methodology to assess information quality. It describes a case study of a Korean manufacturing organization where analytical hierarchy process and quality function deployment was utilized to determine the mutual relationships of information quality dimensions and critical to information quality factors.

Soil erosion fragility assessment using an impact model and geographic information system

A study was taken in a 1566 ha watershed situated in the Capivara River basin, municipality of Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil. This environment is fragile and can be subjected to different forms of negative impacts, among them soil erosion by water. The main objective of the research was to develop a methodology for the assessment of soil erosion fragility at the various different watershed positions, using the geographic information system ILWIS version 3.3 for Windows. An impact model was created to generate the soil's erosion fragility plan, based on four indicators of fragility to water erosion: land use and cover, slope, percentage of soil fine sand and accumulated water flow. Thematic plans were generated in a geographic information system (GIS) environment. First, all the variables, except land use and cover, were described by continuous numerical plans in a raster structure. The land use and cover plan was also represented by numerical values associated with the weights attributed to each class, starting from a pairwise comparison matrix and using the analytical hierarchy process. A final field check was done to record evidence of erosive processes in the areas indicated as presenting the highest levels of fragility, i.e., sites with steep slopes, high percentage of soil fine sand, tendency to accumulate surface water flow, and sites of pastureland. The methodology used in the environmental problems diagnosis of the study area can be employed at places with similar relief, soil and climatic conditions.

Selecting appropriate bedding to reduce locomotion problems in broilers

Two experiments were carried out at the Poultry Sector of the School of Agrarian Sciences of the Federal University of Grande Dourados to evaluate the incidence of leg problems in broilers reared on two distinct types of bedding material: rice husks or wood shavings, both new and reused. In both trials, a randomized experimental design was applied in factorial arrangement (2 x 2 x 2) using two genetic strains (Cobb® or Ross®); two sexes (male or female), and two litter materials (rice husks or wood shavings). In each trial 1080 one day pullets were reared equally divided in the treatments. The birds were placed in 4.5 m² boxes at a density of 10 birds m-2. All birds were fed diets with equal nutritional density, and water was offered ad libitum. Feeds were divided in three phases: starter diet (1 - 21 days), grower diet (22 - 35 days), and finisher diet (36 - 45 days). on day 45, fifty birds were randomly selected in each experiment to evaluate flock leg problems. The following parameters were analyzed: gait score, incidence of valgus and varus disorder, footpad dermatitis, femoral degeneration, tibial dyschondroplasia, and spondylolisthesis. Ambient temperature during rearing and litter caking and moisture content were recorded in four boxes per treatment. The analytical hierarchy process was used to organize the data into specific criteria. Several criteria, related to the attributes that were determinant according to the statistical analysis, were chosen in order to provide the best input to the process. Results indicated that new wood-shavings bedding was the most appropriate bedding to prevent locomotion problems, followed by new rice husks, reused wood shavings, and reused rice husks. However, when leg problems were associated to sex and genetic strain, male Ross birds strain presented less problems when reared on new rice husks, followed by new wood shavings

Modelagem da paisagem orientada ao processo decisório da gestão socioambiental na bacia hidrográfica do rio Manso (MT)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mapeamento geoambiental de Espírito Santo do Pinhal e Santo Antônio do Jardim (SP)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Enhancing multidirectional communication for cognitive cities

This paper presents the technical background and functionality of a meta-application (meta-app) for cognitive cities. This app enhances communication and thereby facilitates e-governance. This paper focuses on a user-centered implementation of the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) by presenting its technical specifications in relation with cognitive cities. For didactical reasons, a use case from the user perspective is included. Finally the findings are summed up and future work is presented

A systems approach to strategic manpower planning for technological development under conditions of manpower scarcity and centralised control

This thesis deals with the integration of the manpower criterion with the strategic decision making processes of technological projects in developing countries. This integration is to be achieved by ensuring the involvement of the actors, who have relevant roles and responsibilities along the whole life cycle of the project, in the strategic decision making phases of the project. The relevance of the actors is ascertained by the use of a responsibility index which relates their responsibility to the project's constituent stages. In the context of a technological project in a typical centrally-planned developing environment, the actors are identified as Arbiters, Planners, Implementors and Operators and their roles, concerns and objectives are derived. In this context, the actors are usually government and non-government organisations. Hence, decision making will involve multiple agencies as well as multiple criteria. A methodology covering the whole decision-making process, from options generation to options selection, and adopting Saaty's Analytical Hierarchy Process as an operational tool is proposed to deal with such multiple-criteria, multipleagency decision situations. The methodology is intended to integrate the consideration of the relevant criteria, the prevailing environmental and policy factors, and the concerns and objectives of the relevant actors into a unifying decision-making process which strives to facilitate enlightened decision making and to enhance learning and interaction. An extensive assessment of the methodology's feasibility, based on a specific technological project within the Iraqi oil industry is included, and indicates that the methodology should be both useful and implementable.