Simulating a latent susceptible pool to examine the impact on cardiovascular mortality

The health effects of cold and hot temperatures are strongest in the frail and elderly. A large number of deaths in this "susceptible pool" after heat waves and cold snaps can cause mortality displacement, where an immediate increase in mortality is somewhat offset by a subsequent decrease in the following weeks. There may also be longer-term implications, as reductions in the pool caused by hot summers can reduce cold-related mortality in the following winter. A state-space model was used to simulate the numbers in the susceptible pool over time. We simulated the effects of harsh winters and heat waves, and varied the size of the susceptible pool. The larger the susceptible pool the smaller the mortality displacement. When 1% of the population were susceptible a harsh winter lead to an average of just 3 months of life lost per cold-related death, whereas a pool size of 10% meant that 24 months of life were lost per death. The impact of a cold spell on months of life lost was greater when the increased risk of death also applied to healthy people. The number of deaths caused by an August heat wave were reduced when there was a prior heat wave in June which reduced the susceptible pool. We were able to mimic some observed seasonal patterns in mortality using a simple state-space model. A better understanding of the size and dynamics of the susceptible pool will improve our understanding of the health effects of temperature.

Parathyroid hormone as an outcome indicator in old age

Serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) and vitamin D are the major regulators of extracellular calcium homeostasis. The inverse association between PTH and vitamin D and the common age-related elevation of the PTH concentration are well known phenomena. However, the confounding or modifying factors of this relationship and their impact on the response of PTH levels to vitamin D supplementation need further investigation. Clinical conditions such as primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT), renal failure and vitamin D deficiency, characterized by an elevation of the PTH concentration, have been associated with impaired long-term health outcomes. Curative treatments for these conditions have also been shown to decreases PTH concentration and attenuate some of the adverse health effects. In PHPT it has also been commonly held that hypercalcaemia, the other hallmark of the disease, is the key mediator of the adverse health outcomes. In chronic kidney disease the systemic vascular disease has been proposed to have the most important impact on general health. Some evidence also indicates that vitamin D may have significant extraskeletal actions. However, the frank elevation of PTH concentration seen in advanced PHPT and in end-stage renal failure have also been suggested to be at least partly causally related to an increased risk of death as well as cognitive dysfunction. However, the exact mechanisms have remained unclear. Furthermore, the predictive value of elevated PTH in unselected older populations has been less well studied. The studies presented in this thesis investigated the impact of age and mobility on the responses of PTH levels to vitamin D deficiency and supplementation. Furthermore, the predictive value of PTH for long-term survival and cognitive decline was addressed in an unselected population of older people. The hypothesis was that age and chronic immobility are related to a persistently blunted elevation of PTH concentration, even in the presence of chronic vitamin D deficiency, and to attenuated responses of PTH to vitamin D supplementation. It was also further hypothesized that a slightly elevated or even high-normal PTH concentration is an independent indicator of an increased risk of death and cognitive decline in the general aged population. The data of this thesis are based on three samples: a meta-analysis of published vitamin D supplementation trials, a randomized placebo controlled six-month vitamin D supplementation trial, and a longitudinal prospective cohort study on a general aged population. Based on a PubMed search, a meta-analysis of 52 clinical trials with 6 290 adult participants was performed to evaluate the impact of age and immobility on the responses of PTH to 25-OHD levels and vitamin D supplementation. A total of 218 chronically immobile, very old inpatients were also enrolled into a vitamin D supplementation trial. Mortality data for these patients was also collected after a two-year follow-up. Finally, data from the Helsinki Aging Study, which followed three random age cohorts (75, 80 and 85 years) until death in almost all subjects, was used to evaluate the predictive value of PTH for long-term survival and cognitive decline. This series of studies demonstrated that in older people without overt renal failure or severe hypercalcaemia, serum 25-OHD and PTH were closely associated, but this relationship was also affected by age and immobility. Furthermore, a substantial proportion of old chronically bedridden patients did not respond to vitamin D deficiency by elevating PTH, and the effect of a high-dose (1200 IU/d) six-month cholecalciferol supplementation on the PTH concentration was minor. This study demonstrated longitudinally for the first time that the blunted PTH also persisted over time. Even a subtle elevation of PTH to high-normal levels predicted impaired long-term health outcomes. Slightly elevated PTH concentrations indicated an increased risk of clinically significant cognitive decline and death during the last years of life in a general aged population. This association was also independent of serum ionized calcium (Ca2+) and the estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR). A slightly elevated PTH also indicated impaired two-year survival during the terminal years of frail elderly subjects independently of Ca2+, GFR, and of 25-OHD levels. The interplay between PTH and vitamin D in the regulation of calcium homeostasis is more complex than has been generally considered. In addition to muskuloskeletal health parathyroid hormone is also related to the maintenance of other important domains of health in old age. Higher PTH concentrations, even within conventional laboratory reference ranges, seem to be an independent indicator of an increased risk of all-cause and of cardiovascular mortality, independently of established cardiovascular risk factors, disturbances in mineral metabolism, and renal failure. Limited and inconsistent evidence supports the role of vitamin D deficiency-related lack of neuroprotective effects over the causal association between PTH and impaired cognitive functions. However, the causality of these associations remains unclear. The clinical implications of the observed relationships remain to be elucidated by future studies interfering with PTH concentrations, especially by long-term interventions to reduce PTH.

Rodent models for resolving extremes of exercise and health

The extremes of exercise capacity and health are considered a complex interplay between genes and the environment. In general, the study of animal models has proven critical for deep mechanistic exploration that provides guidance for focused and hypothesis driven discovery in humans. Hypotheses underlying molecular mechanisms of disease, and gene/tissue function can be tested in rodents in order to generate sufficient evidence to resolve and progress our understanding of human biology. Here we provide examples of three alternative uses of rodent models that have been applied successfully to advance knowledge that bridges our understanding of the connection between exercise capacity and health status. Firstly we review the strong association between exercise capacity and all-cause morbidity and mortality in humans through artificial selection on low and high exercise performance in the rat and the consequent generation of the "energy transfer hypothesis". Secondly we review specific transgenic and knock-out mouse models that replicate the human disease condition and performance. This includes human glycogen storage diseases (McArdle and Pompe) and α-actinin-3 deficiency. Together these rodent models provide an overview of the advancements of molecular knowledge required for clinical translation. Continued study of these models in conjunction with human association studies will be critical to resolving the complex gene-environment interplay linking exercise capacity, health, and disease.

Disparities in breast cancer mortality trends between 30 European countries: Retrospective trend analysis of WHO mortality database

Objective: To examine changes in temporal trends in breast cancer mortality in women living in 30 European countries.
Design: Retrospective trend analysis.
Data source: WHO mortality database on causes of deaths
Subjects reviewed: Female deaths from breast cancer from 1989 to 2006
Main outcome measures: Changes in breast cancer mortality for all women and by age group (<50, 50-69, and >= 70 years) calculated from linear regressions of log transformed, age adjusted death rates. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify the year when trends in all age mortality began to change.
Results: From 1989 to 2006, there was a median reduction in breast cancer mortality of 19%, ranging from a 45% reduction in Iceland to a 17% increase in Romania. Breast cancer mortality decreased by >= 20% in 15 countries, and the reduction tended to be greater in countries with higher mortality in 1987-9. England and Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland had the second, third, and fourth largest decreases of 35%, 29%, and 30%, respectively. In France, Finland, and Sweden, mortality decreased by 11%, 12%, and 16%, respectively. In central European countries mortality did not decline or even increased during the period. Downward mortality trends usually started between 1988 and 1996, and the persistent reduction from 1999 to 2006 indicates that these trends may continue. The median changes in the age groups were -37% (range -76% to -14%) in women aged <50, -21% (-40% to 14%) in 50-69 year olds, and -2% (-42% to 80%) in >= 70 year olds.
Conclusions: Changes in breast cancer mortality after 1988 varied widely between European countries, and the UK is among the countries with the largest reductions. Women aged <50 years showed the greatest reductions in mortality, also in countries where screening at that age is uncommon. The increasing mortality in some central European countries reflects avoidable mortality.

Toxicity of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs to Gyps vultures:a new threat from ketoprofen

Three Gyps vulture species are on the brink of extinction in South Asia owing to the veterinary non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) diclofenac. Carcasses of domesticated ungulates are the main food source for Asia's vultures and birds die from kidney failure after consuming diclofenac-contaminated tissues. Here, we report on the safety testing of the NSAID ketoprofen, which was not reported to cause mortality in clinical treatment of scavenging birds and is rapidly eliminated from livestock tissues. Safety testing was undertaken using captive non-releasable Cape griffon vultures (Gyps coprotheres) and wild-caught African white-backed vultures (G. africanus), both previously identified as susceptible to diclofenac and suitable surrogates. Ketoprofen doses ranged from 0.5 to 5 mg kg(-1) vulture body weight, based upon recommended veterinary guidelines and maximum levels of exposure for wild vultures (estimated as 1.54 mg kg(-1)). Doses were administered by oral gavage or through feeding tissues from cattle dosed with ketoprofen at 6 mg kg(-1) cattle body weight, before slaughter. Mortalities occurred at dose levels of 1.5 and 5 mg kg(-1) vulture body weight (within the range recommended for clinical treatment) with the same clinical signs as observed for diclofenac. Surveys of livestock carcasses in India indicate that toxic levels of residual ketoprofen are already present in vulture food supplies. Consequently, we strongly recommend that ketoprofen is not used for veterinary treatment of livestock in Asia and in other regions of the world where vultures access livestock carcasses. The only alternative to diclofenac that should be promoted as safe for vultures is the NSAID meloxicam.

International mortality modelling- an economic perspective

A recent literature has developed on modelling mortality in multiple populations together. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a reason why mortality in different populations may be related based on an economic literature on technology and knowledge diffusion.

Is Mortality Spatial or Social?

Mortality modelling for the purposes of demographic forecasting and actuarial pricing is generally done at an aggregate level using national data. Modelling at this level fails to capture the variation in mortality within country and potentially leads to a mis-specification of mortality forecasts for a subset of the population. This can have detrimental effects for pricing and reserving in the actuarial context. In this paper we consider mortality rates at a regional level and analyse the variation in those rates. We consider whether variation in mortality rates within a country can be explained using local economic and social variables. Using Northern Ireland data on mortality and measures of deprivation we identify the variables explaining mortality variation. We create a population polarisation variable and find that this variable is significant in explaining some of the variation in mortality rates. Further, we consider whether spatial and non-spatial models have a part to play in explaining mortality differentials.

Six-year follow-up of the SPHERE RCT: secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice.

Objective: To determine the long-term effectiveness of a complex intervention in primary care aimed at improving outcomes for patients with coronary heart disease.

Design: A 6-year follow-up of a cluster randomised controlled trial, which found after 18 months that both total and cardiovascular hospital admissions were significantly reduced in intervention practices (8% absolute reduction).

Setting: 48 general practices in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Participants: 903 patients with established coronary heart disease at baseline in the original trial.

Intervention: The original intervention consisted of tailored practice and patient plans; training sessions for practitioners in medication prescribing and behavioural change; and regular patient recall system. Control practices provided usual care. Following the intervention period, all supports from the research team to intervention practices ceased.

Outcome measures: Primary outcome: hospital admissions, all cause and cardiovascular; secondary outcomes: mortality; blood pressure and cholesterol control.

Results: At 6-year follow-up, data were collected from practice records of 696 patients (77%). For those who had died, we censored their data at the point of death and cause of death was established. There were no significant differences between the intervention and control practices in either total (OR 0.83 (95% CI 0.54 to 1.28)) or cardiovascular hospital admissions (OR 0.91 (95% CI 0.49 to 1.65)). We confirmed mortality status of 886 of the original 903 patients (98%). There were no significant differences in mortality (15% in intervention and 16% in control) or in the proportions of patients above target control for systolic blood pressure or total cholesterol.

Conclusions: Initial significant differences in the numbers of total and cardiovascular hospital admissions were not maintained at 6 years and no differences were found in mortality or blood pressure and cholesterol control. Policymakers need to continue to assess the effectiveness of previously efficacious programmes.

Trial registration number: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN24081411.

L’amiodarone en fibrillation auriculaire chez les patients avec et sans dysfonction ventriculaire gauche sévère : une étude combinée de AFFIRM et AF-CHF

Objectif: Déterminer si l’efficacité de l’amiodarone pour le maintien du rythme sinusal varie selon la fonction systolique ventriculaire gauche. Contexte: Malgré un profil de sécurité établi en insuffisance cardiaque, nous ignorons si l’efficacité de l’amiodarone et son impact sur différentes issues cardiovasculaires sont modulés par la fonction ventriculaire gauche. Méthode: Nous avons effectué une analyse combinée de 3307 patients (âgés de 68,0±0,9 ans ; 31,1% de femmes) recrutés dans les études AFFIRM et AF-CHF qui ont été randomisés au contrôle du rythme par l’amiodarone (N=1107) ou au contrôle de la fréquence cardiaque (N=2200). Résultats: Chez les patients sous amiodarone, la survie sans fibrillation auriculaire était de 84% et de 45% à 1 et 5 ans respectivement, sans égard à la fraction d’éjection ventriculaire gauche (P=0,8754, ajusté). De façon similaire, la proportion moyenne ajustée de temps en fibrillation auriculaire (15,0±1,8%) n’a pas été influencée par la fraction d’éjection (P=0,6094). Durant le suivi, 1963 patients (59,4%) ont requis au moins une hospitalisation, incluant 1401 (42,6%) patients hospitalisés pour cause cardiovasculaire. Les taux ajustés d’hospitalisation pour toutes causes et pour cause cardiovasculaire étaient similaires entre les patients sous amiodarone et ceux dans le groupe de contrôle de la fréquence dans l’ensemble de la population ainsi que dans les sous-groupes de patients avec et sans dysfonction ventriculaire gauche sévère. De façon similaire, les taux ajustés de mortalité globale et cardiovasculaire étaient similaires entre chez les patients sous amiodarone et ceux traités par le contrôle de la fréquence dans l’ensemble de la population ainsi que dans les sous-groupes de patients avec et sans dysfonction ventriculaire gauche sévère. Conclusions: L’efficacité de l’amiodarone pour le maintien du rythme sinusal n’est pas influencée par la fonction ventriculaire gauche. Le contrôle du rythme avec l’amiodarone s’associe à des taux de mortalité et d’hospitalisation comparables au contrôle de la fréquence à la fois chez les patients avec et sans dysfonction ventriculaire gauche sévère.

La néphrectomie partielle chez les patients atteints du cancer du rein de stade T1b

Objectif : La néphrectomie partielle est reconnue actuellement comme le traitement de choix des tumeurs de moins de 7 cm. Le but de notre étude est de comparer le taux de mortalité lié au cancer du rein suite au traitement par néphrectomie partielle ou radicale chez les patients de stade T1b, de présenter la tendance temporelle du taux d'intervention par néphrectomie partielle pour les tumeurs de stade T1b et d’identifier les facteurs sociodémographiques et tumoraux qui influencent le choix thérapeutique entre les deux types de traitement chirurgical. Méthode : Il s’agit d’une étude épidémiologique de type rétrospective. La population de patients provient de la base de donnée SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) qui regroupe une grande proportion de la population nord-américaine. Dans notre étude, nous avons utilisé l’analyse par régression logistique pour identifier les facteurs sociodémographiques associés à l'intervention par néphrectomie partielle. Dans un deuxième temps, nous avons comparé la mortalité liée au cancer entre les deux options chirurgicales, après association par score de tendance pour diminuer les différences de base entre les deux populations. Nos critères étaient l’âge, la race, le sexe, l’état civil, le niveau socioéconomique, la taille tumorale, le grade nucléaire, l’histologie et la localité du centre hospitalier. L’analyse des données a été faite par le logiciel SPSS. Résultats : Le taux d'interventions par néphrectomie partielle a augmenté de 1,2% en 1988 à 15,9% en 2008 (p <0,001). Les jeunes patients, les tumeurs de petite taille, les patients de race noire, ainsi que les hommes sont plus susceptibles d'être traités par néphrectomie partielle (tous les p < 0,002). Parmi le groupe ciblé, le taux de mortalité lié au cancer à 5 ans et à 10 ans est de 4,4 et de 6,1% pour les néphrectomies partielles et de 6,0 et 10,4% pour les néphrectomies radicales (p = 0,03). Après ajustement de toutes les autres variables, les analyses de régression montrent que le choix entre les deux types de néphrectomie n’est pas associé à la mortalité lié au cancer (hazard ratio: 0,89, p = 0,5). Conclusion : Malgré un contrôle oncologique équivalent, le taux d'intervention par néphrectomie partielle chez les patients ayant un cancer du rein T1b est faible en comparaison à la néphrectomie radicale.

Antibody Based Diagnostic for Detection Of Vibrios and their Biological Control using Antagonistic Bacteria in Macrobrachium Rosenbergii Larval Rearing Systems

The main objective of the work undertaken here was to develop an appropriate microbial technology to protect the larvae of M.rosenbergii in hatchery from vibriosis. This technology precisely is consisted of a rapid detection system of vibrios and effective antagonistic probiotics for the management of vibrios. The present work was undertaken with the realizations that to stabilize the production process of commercial hatcheries an appropriate, comprehensive and fool proof technology is required primarily for the rapid detection of Vibrio and subsequently for its management. Nine species of Vibrio have been found to be associated with larvae of M. rosenbergii in hatchery. Haemolytic assay of the Vibrio and Aeromonas on prawn blood agar showed that all isolates of V. alginolyticus and Aeromonas sp., from moribund, necrotized larve were haemolytic and the isolates of V.cholerae, V.splendidus II, V.proteolyticus and V.fluvialis from the larvae obtained from apparently healthy larval rearing systems were non-haemolytic. Hydrolytic enzymes such as lipase, chitinase and gelatinase were widespread amongst the Vibrio and Aeromonas isolates. Dominance of V.alginolyticus among the isolates from necrotic larvae and the failure in isolating them from rearing water strongly suggest that they infect larvae and multiply in the larval body and cause mortality in the hatchery. The observation suggested that the isolate V. alginolyticus was a pathogen to the larvae of M.rosenbergii. To sum up, through this work, nine species of Vibrio and genus Aeromonas associated with M.rosenbergii larval rearing systems could be isolated and segregated based on the haemolytic activity and the antibodies (PA bs) for use in diagnosis or epidemiological studies could be produced, based on a virulent culture of V.alginolyticus. This could possibly replace the conventional biochemical tests for identification. As prophylaxis to vibriosis, four isolates of Micrococcus spp. and an isolate of Pseudomonas sp. could be obtained which could possibly be used as antagonistic probiotics in the larval rearing system of M.rosenbergii.

Determinantes morfológicos de prognóstico em pneumonia nosocomial: um estudo em autópsias

OBJETIVO: Determinar a prevalência de pneumonia nosocomial nas autópsias em um hospital público universitário; identificar os fatores de risco relacionados à pneumonia nosocomial e os potenciais fatores prognósticos relacionados à ocorrência de pneumonia nosocomial fatal; e correlacionar os achados anatomopatológicos com a ocorrência de pneumonia nosocomial e/ou pneumonia aspirativa. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo de 199 pacientes autopsiados, maiores de 1 ano de idade, internados no Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu da Universidade Estadual Paulista entre 1999 e 2006, cuja causa de morte (causa básica ou associada) foi pneumonia nosocomial. Testou-se a associação dos dados demográficos, clínicos e anatomopatológicos com os desfechos pneumonia nosocomial fatal e pneumonia aspirativa fatal. As variáveis significativas entraram na análise multivariada. RESULTADOS: A idade média foi de 59 ± 19 anos. A prevalência de pneumonia nosocomial em autópsias foi 29%, e essa foi a causa mortis de 22,6% dos pacientes autopsiados. A pneumonia nosocomial fatal correlacionou-se com os achados anatomopatológicos de alterações estruturais tabágicas (OR = 3,23; IC95%: 1,26-2,95; p = 0,02) e acometimento pulmonar bilateral (OR = 3,23; IC95%: 1,26-8,30; p = 0,01). Não houve associações significativas entre as variáveis e pneumonia aspirativa fatal. CONCLUSÕES: em nossa amostra, a pneumonia nosocomial teve prevalência elevada e foi responsável por quase 25% das mortes. A mortalidade é favorecida por alterações estruturais tabágicas e pneumonia bilateral. Esses achados corroboram os resultados de diversos estudos clínicos sobre pneumonia nosocomial.

Foraging Behavior and Mortality of Ectatomma brunneum (Hymenoptera, Formicidae) in Simultaneous Exposure to Ant Baits and Conventional Diet in Laboratory

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Participation of genes involved in the process of anaerobic respiration of infection in chickens by salmonella typhimurium

Intestinal pathogens are exposed to various stress conditions during their infectious cycle. Anaerobiosis, one of such hostile condition, is offered by the host within gut and intestinal lumen, where survival, multiplication and entry into intestinal epithelial cells are priority for the invasion of the pathogen. The fumarate reductase (frdABCD), dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO)-trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) reductase (dmsABC), and nitrate reductase (narGHIJ) operons in Salmonella Typhimurium (STM) encode enzymes involved in anaerobic respiration to the electron acceptors fumarate, DMSO, TMAO, and nitrate, respectively. They are regulated in response to nitrate and oxygen availability and changes in cell growth rate. Vitamin B12 (cobalamin) is synthesized by Salmonella Typhimurium only under anaerobic growth conditions used as a cofactor in four known reactions. The deletion of cobS and cbiA genes prevent any form of cobalamin production. In the present study we evaluate the infection of birds by mutants of STM, with the anaerobic respiratory system committed by mutations in the genes: narG, napA, cobS, cbiA, frdA, dmsA, and torC. Virulence was assessed by oral inoculation of groups of one-day-old broilers with 0.1 mL of culture contained 10 8 colony forming units (CFU)/mL or diluted at 10 -3 and 10 -2 of strains mutants of Salmonella Typhimurium. Clinical signs and mortality were recorded over a period of 21 days. In general, the symptoms of chickens infected with the mutant strains were similar to those presenting by control birds. Except for STMNalr cbiA, all showed reduced capacity to cause mortality in comparison with the original strain. The mortality of group of chickens infected with STMNal r △narG, STMNal r △frdA, STMNal r △dmsA and STMNal r △cobS△cbiA showed significant decrease in mortality compared to control group (p<0.05).

Participação de genes associados ao processo de respiração anaeróbica na infecção de aves por Salmonella Typhimurium

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)