Human Capital in Economic Development: From Labour Productivity to Macroeconomic Impact

Micro-econometric evidence reveals high private returns to education, most prominently in low-income countries. However, it is disputed to what extent this translates into a macro-economic impact. This paper projects the increase in human capital from higher education in Malawi and uses a dynamic applied general equilibrium model to estimate the resulting macroeconomics impact. This is contingent upon endogenous adjustments, in particular how labour productivity affects competitiveness and if this in turn stimulates exports. Choice among commonly applied labour market assumptions and trade elasticities results in widely different outcomes. Appraisal of such policies should consider not only the impact on human capital stocks, but also adjustments outside the labour market.

International Aid to Tanzania – with some comparisons from Ghana and Uganda

This paper has three principal objectives. First, to review the level of Official Development Assistance (ODA) to Tanzania over the last two to three decades, and to place this into an economic context. This review includes some comparisons with the experience of Ghana and Uganda. Second, to discuss three major issues for the Tanzanian aid: the position of ODA as budget support, corruption, and alignment with the principles of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness. Third, to review the literature on the Tanzanian aid experience, including a range of official evaluation reports produced by the Tanzanian government and by the donor community. The conclusions, broadly, are that ODA has been at a sustained high level for most of the period reviewed, funding a significant amount of government development expenditure, and that economic growth has been strong, with poverty reduction ‘flat-lining’ in Tanzania but being significant in Ghana and Uganda. Experience with budget support in Tanzania has been mixed, corruption continues as a major concern, and improvements to public finance management have been difficult to achieve. In this context governance adjustments come slowly, requiring patience on the part of both recipient governments and the ODA donor community.

Performance analysis and tuning in multicore environments

Performance analysis is the task of monitor the behavior of a program execution. The main goal is to find out the possible adjustments that might be done in order improve the performance. To be able to get that improvement it is necessary to find the different causes of overhead. Nowadays we are already in the multicore era, but there is a gap between the level of development of the two main divisions of multicore technology (hardware and software). When we talk about multicore we are also speaking of shared memory systems, on this master thesis we talk about the issues involved on the performance analysis and tuning of applications running specifically in a shared Memory system. We move one step ahead to take the performance analysis to another level by analyzing the applications structure and patterns. We also present some tools specifically addressed to the performance analysis of OpenMP multithread application. At the end we present the results of some experiments performed with a set of OpenMP scientific application.

Public policy for entrepreneurship and innovation: impact in managed and entrepreneurial economies

Many of the most advanced economies of the world have undergone significant transformation in the last few decades. Globalization and technological changes, especially developments in information technologies, have helped to stimulate this transformation. These have contributed to changing institutional frameworks in many respects within the economies including adjustments to economic policies. The results of these transformations take many different forms and are manifested in different areas of an economy. At the heart of these changes however, has been the increasingly important role of entrepreneurship in the economy. The transformed ("new") economy stimulates and supports activities in innovation and entrepreneurship and is labelled the entrepreneurial economy. The "old" economy on the other hand restricts such activities and is referred to as the managed economy (Audretsch & Thurik, 2001).

Pharmacokinetic (PK)-based dosage individualization of imatinib: evaluation of efficiency and clinical usefulness

Background: Retrospective analyses suggest that personalized PK-based dosage might be useful for imatinib, as treatment response correlates with trough concentrations (Cmin) in cancer patients. Our objectives were to improve the interpretation of randomly measured concentrations and to confirm its efficiency before evaluating the clinical usefulness of systematic PK-based dosage in chronic myeloid leukemia patients. Methods and Results: A Bayesian method was validated for the prediction of individual Cmin on the basis of a single random observation, and was applied in a prospective multicenter randomized controlled clinical trial. 28 out of 56 patients were enrolled in the systematic dosage individualization arm and had 44 follow-up visits (their clinical follow-up is ongoing). PK-dose-adjustments were proposed in 39% having predicted Cmin significantly away from the target (1000 ng/ml). Recommendations were taken up by physicians in 57%, patients were considered non-compliant in 27%. Median Cmin at study inclusion was 754 ng/ml and differed significantly from the target (p=0.02, Wilcoxon test). On follow-up, Cmin was 984 ng/ml (p=0.82) in the compliant group. CV decreased from 46% to 27% (p=0.02, F-test). Conclusion: PK-based (Bayesian) dosage adjustment is able to bring individual drug exposure closer to a given therapeutic target. Its influence on therapeutic response remains to be evaluated.

Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations

We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of Pissarides' (2000) model with energy costs, which we simulate in response to shocks mimicking the behavior of the actual oil price shocks. We find that (i) these shocks are an important driving force of job market flows; (ii) the job finding probability is the main transmission mechanism of such shocks; and (iii) they bring a new amplification mechanism for the volatility and should thus be seen as complementary of labor productivity shocks. Overall we conclude that shocks in oil prices cannot be neglected in explaining cyclical labor adjustments in the U.S.

Flexible employment and cross- regional adjustment

Employment flexibility is commonly associated to greater labour mobility and thus faster cross-regional adjustments. The literature however offers very little hard evidence on this and quite limited theoretical guidance. This paper examines empirically the relationship between employment flexibility and cross-regional adjustment (migration) at the regional and local levels in the UK. Employment flexibility is associated to higher labour mobility (but only at a rather localised scale) and at the same time seems to reduce the responsiveness of migration to unemployment. This suggest that rising flexibility may be linked to higher persistence in spatial disparities, as intra-regional adjustments are strengthened while extraregional adjustments weakened. Keywords: Employment flexibility, regional migration, labour market adjustment JEL Codes: R11, R23, J08, J61

L'exploitation des eaux souterraines en Syrie centrale : construction de diagnostics et politiques d'intervention

Syrian dry areas have been for several millennia a place of interaction between human populations and the environment. If environmental constraints and heterogeneity condition the human occupation and exploitation of resources, socio-political, economic and historical elements play a fundamental role. Since the late 1980s, Syrian dry areas are viewed as suffering a serious water crisis, due to groundwater overdraft. The Syrian administration and international development agencies believe that groundwater overexploitation is also leading to a decline of agricultural activities and to poverty increase. Action is thus required to address these problems.However, the overexploitation diagnosis needs to be reviewed. The overexploitation discourse appears in the context of Syria's opening to international organizations and to the market economy. It echoes the international discourse of "global water crisis". The diagnosis is based on national indicators recycling old Soviet data that has not been updated. In the post-Soviet era, the Syrian national water policy seems to abandon large surface water irrigation projects in favor of a strategy of water use rationalization and groundwater conservation in crisis regions, especially in the district of Salamieh.This groundwater conservation policy has a number of inconsistencies. It is justified for the administration and also probably for international donors, since it responds to an indisputable environmental emergency. However, efforts to conserve water are anecdotal or even counterproductive. The water conservation policy appears a posteriori as an extension of the national policy of food self-sufficiency. The dominant interpretation of overexploitation, and more generally of the water crisis, prevents any controversary approach of the status of resources and of the agricultural system in general and thus destroys any attempt to discuss alternatives with respect to groundwater management, allocation, and their inclusion in development programs.A revisited diagnosis of the situation needs to take into account spatial and temporal dimensions of the groundwater exploitation and to analyze the co-evolution of hydrogeological and agricultural systems. It should highlight the adjustments adopted to cope with environmental and economic variability, changes of water availability and regulatory measures enforcements. These elements play an important role for water availability and for the spatial, temporal, sectoral allocation of water resource. The groundwater exploitation in the last century has obviously had an impact on the environment, but the changes are not necessarily catastrophic.The current groundwater use in central Syria increases the uncertainty by reducing the ability of aquifers to buffer climatic changes. However, the climatic factor is not the only source of uncertainty. The high volatility of commodity prices, fuel, land and water, depending on the market but also on the will (and capacity) of the Syrian State to preserve social peace is a strong source of uncertainty. The research should consider the whole range of possibilities and propose alternatives that take into consideration the risks they imply for the water users, the political will to support or not the local access to water - thus involving a redefinition of the economic and social objectives - and finally the ability of international organizations to reconsider pre-established diagnoses.

Reduction of the hand representation in the ipsilateral primary motor cortex following unilateral section of the corticospinal tract at cervical level in monkeys.

BACKGROUND: After sub-total hemi-section of cervical cord at level C7/C8 in monkeys, the ipsilesional hand exhibited a paralysis for a couple of weeks, followed by incomplete recovery of manual dexterity, reaching a plateau after 40-50 days. Recently, we demonstrated that the level of the plateau was related to the size of the lesion and that progressive plastic changes of the motor map in the contralesional motor cortex, particularly the hand representation, took place following a comparable time course. The goal of the present study was to assess, in three macaque monkeys, whether the hand representation in the ipsilesional primary motor cortex (M1) was also affected by the cervical hemi-section.¦RESULTS: Unexpectedly, based on the minor contribution of the ipsilesional hemisphere to the transected corticospinal (CS) tract, a considerable reduction of the hand representation was also observed in the ipsilesional M1. Mapping control experiments ruled out the possibility that changes of motor maps are due to variability of the intracortical microstimulation mapping technique. The extent of the size reduction of the hand area was nearly as large as in the contralesional hemisphere in two of the three monkeys. In the third monkey, it represented a reduction by a factor of half the change observed in the contralesional hemisphere. Although the hand representation was modified in the ipsilesional hemisphere, such changes were not correlated with a contribution of this hemisphere to the incomplete recovery of the manual dexterity for the hand affected by the lesion, as demonstrated by reversible inactivation experiments (in contrast to the contralesional hemisphere). Moreover, despite the size reduction of M1 hand area in the ipsilesional hemisphere, no deficit of manual dexterity for the hand opposite to the cervical hemi-section was detected.¦CONCLUSION: After cervical hemi-section, the ipsilesional motor cortex exhibited substantial reduction of the hand representation, whose extent did not match the small number of axotomized CS neurons. We hypothesized that the paradoxical reduction of hand representation in the ipsilesional hemisphere is secondary to the changes taking place in the contralesional hemisphere, possibly corresponding to postural adjustments and/or re-establishing a balance between the two hemispheres.

Determinants of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) prevalence in homosexual and bisexual men screened for admission to a cohort study of HIV negatives in Belo Horizonte, Brazil: Project Horizonte

Project Horizonte, an open cohort of homosexual and bisexual human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) negative men, is a component of the AIDS Vaccine Program, in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil. The objective of this study was to compare volunteers testing HIV positive at cohort entry with a sample of those who tested HIV negative in order to identify risk factors for prevalent HIV infection, in a population being screened for enrollment at Project Horizonte. A nested case-control study was conducted. HIV positive volunteers at entry (cases) were matched by age and admission date to three HIV negative controls each. Selected variables used for the current analysis included demographic factors, sexual behavior and other risk factors for HIV infection. During the study period (1994-2001), among the 621 volunteers screened, 61 tested positive for HIV. Cases were matched to 183 HIV negative control subjects. After adjustments, the main risk factors associated with HIV infection were unprotected sex with an occasional partners, OR = 3.7 (CI 95% 1.3-10.6), receptive anal intercourse with an occasional partner, OR = 2.8 (95% CI 0.9-8.9) and belonging to the negro racial group, OR = 3.4 (CI 95% 1.1-11.9). These variables were associated with an increase in the risk of HIV infection among men who have sex with men at the screening for admission to an open HIV negative cohort.

Alteration in neuromuscular function after a 5 km running time trial.

The aim of this study was to characterize the effect of a 5 km running time trial on the neuromuscular properties of the plantar flexors. Eleven well-trained triathletes performed a series of neuromuscular tests before and immediately after the run on a 200 m indoor track. Muscle activation (twitch interpolation) and normalized EMG activity were assessed during maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) of plantar flexors. Maximal soleus H-reflexes and M-waves were evoked at rest (i.e. H (MAX) and M (MAX), respectively) and during MVC (i.e. H (SUP) and M (SUP), respectively). MVC significantly declined (-27%; P < 0.001) after the run, due to decrease in muscle activation (-8%; P < 0.05) and M (MAX)-normalized EMG activity (-13%; P < 0.05). Significant reductions in M-wave amplitudes (M (MAX): -13% and M (SUP): -16%; P < 0.05) as well as H (MAX)/M (MAX) (-37%; P < 0.01) and H (SUP)/M (SUP) (-25%; P < 0.05) ratios occurred with fatigue. Following exercise, the single twitch was characterized by lower peak torque (-16%; P < 0.001) as well as shorter contraction (-19%; P < 0.001) and half-relaxation (-24%; P < 0.001) times. In conclusion, the reduction in plantar flexors strength induced by a 5 km running time trial is caused by peripheral adjustments, which are attributable to a failure of the neuromuscular transmission and excitation-contraction coupling. Fatigue also decreased the magnitude of efferent motor outflow from spinal motor neurons to the plantar flexors and part of this suboptimal neural drive is the result of an inhibition of soleus motoneuron pool reflex excitability.

Three essays in international finance

Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.

Learning collaboration in General Internal Medicine: a pilot project for undergraduate students in nursing, physiotherapy and medicine

Background: A form of education called Interprofessional Education (IPE) occurs when two or more professions learn with, from and about each other. The purpose of IPE is to improve collaboration and the quality of care. Today, IPE is considered as a key educational approach for students in the health professions. IPE is highly effective when delivered in active patient care, such as in clinical placements. General internal medicine (GIM) is a core discipline where hospital-based clinical placements are mandatory for students in many health professions. However, few interprofessional (IP) clinical placements in GIM have been implemented. We designed such a placement. Placement design: The placement took place in the Department of Internal Medicine at the CHUV. It involved students from nursing, physiotherapy and medicine. The students were in their last year before graduation. Students formed teams consisting of one student from each profession. Each team worked in the same unit and had to take care of the same patient. The placement lasted three weeks. It included formal IP sessions, the most important being facilitated discussions or "briefings" (3x/w) during which the students discussed patient care and management. Four teams of students eventually took part in this project. Method: We performed a type of evaluation research called formative evaluation. This aimed at (1) understanding the educational experience and (2) assessing the impact of the placement on student learning. We collected quantitative data with pre-post clerkship questionnaires. We also collected qualitative data with two Focus Groups (FG) discussions at the end of the placement. The FG were audiotaped and transcribed. A thematic analysis was then performed. Results: We focused on the qualitative data, since the quantitative data lacked of statistical power due to the small numbers of students (N = 11). Five themes emerged from the FG analysis: (1) Learning of others' roles, (2) Learning collaborative competences, (3) Striking a balance between acquiring one's own professional competences and interprofessional competences, (4) Barriers to apply learnt IP competences in the future and (5) Advantages and disadvantages of IP briefings. Conclusions: Our IP clinical placement in GIM appeared to help students learn other professionals' roles and collaborative skills. Some challenges (e.g. finding the same patient for each team) were identified and will require adjustments.

Kittiwakes strategically reduce investment in replacement clutches.

Many life-history traits are expressed interactively in life, but to a varying extent on different occasions. Changes in trait expression can be accounted for by differences in the quality of the environment ('environmental constraint' hypothesis) or by strategic adjustments, if the relative contribution of the trait to fitness varies with time ('strategic allocation' hypothesis). In birds, egg production is lower in replacement clutches than in first clutches, but it is unknown whether this reduction results from an environmental constraint (e.g. food being less available at the time when the replacement clutch is produced) or from a strategic allocation of resources between the two breeding attempts. To distinguish between these two hypotheses, we performed an experiment with black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). Pairs were either food-supplemented or not before the first clutch was laid onwards and we induced them to produce a replacement clutch by removing eggs once when the first clutch was complete. As predicted by the 'strategic allocation' hypothesis, egg production of food-supplemented and non-food-supplemented birds decreased between first and replacement clutches. This suggests that kittiwakes strategically reduce investment in egg production for their replacement clutches compared to first clutches.

Factors affecting cognitive outcome in early pediatric stroke.

OBJECTIVE: We examined cognitive performance in children after stroke to study the influence of age at stroke, seizures, lesion characteristics, neurologic impairment (NI), and functional outcome on cognitive outcome. METHODS: This was a prospectively designed study conducted in 99 children who sustained an arterial ischemic stroke (AIS) between the age of 1 month and 16 years. All children underwent cognitive and neurologic follow-up examination sessions 2 years after the insult. Cognitive development was assessed with age-appropriate instruments. RESULTS: Although mean cognitive performance was in the lower normative range, we found poorer results in subtests measuring visuoconstructive skills, short-term memory, and processing speed. Risk factors for negative cognitive outcome were young age at stroke, seizures, combined lesion location (cortical and subcortical), as well as marked NI. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend that all children with a history of AIS undergo regularly scheduled neuropsychological assessment to ensure implementation of appropriate interventions and environmental adjustments as early as possible.