Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

Multiagent system for adaptive strategy formulation in electricity markets

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. MASCEM is a market simulator developed to allow deep studies of the interactions between the players that take part in the electricity market negotiations. This paper presents a new proposal for the definition of MASCEM players’ strategies to negotiate in the market. The proposed methodology is multiagent based, using reinforcement learning algorithms to provide players with the capabilities to perceive the changes in the environment, while adapting their bids formulation according to their needs, using a set of different techniques that are at their disposal.

Cost dependent strategy for electricity markets bidding based on adaptive reinforcement learning

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simulator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM provides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behavior. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players with strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses a reinforcement learning algorithm to learn from experience how to choose the best from a set of possible bids. These bids are defined accordingly to the cost function that each producer presents.

Contextual intelligent load management with ANN adaptive learning module

With the current increase of energy resources prices and environmental concerns intelligent load management systems are gaining more and more importance. This paper concerns a SCADA House Intelligent Management (SHIM) system that includes an optimization module using deterministic and genetic algorithm approaches. SHIM undertakes contextual load management based on the characterization of each situation. SHIM considers available generation resources, load demand, supplier/market electricity price, and consumers’ constraints and preferences. The paper focus on the recently developed learning module which is based on artificial neural networks (ANN). The learning module allows the adjustment of users’ profiles along SHIM lifetime. A case study considering a system with fourteen discrete and four variable loads managed by a SHIM system during five consecutive similar weekends is presented.

Bid definition method for electricity markets based on an adaptive multiagent system

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. MASCEM is a market simulator developed to allow deep studies of the interactions between the players that take part in the electricity market negotiations. This paper presents a new proposal for the definition of MASCEM players’ strategies to negotiate in the market. The proposed methodology is multiagent based, using reinforcement learning algorithms to provide players with the capabilities to perceive the changes in the environment, while adapting their bids formulation according to their needs, using a set of different techniques that are at their disposal. Each agent has the knowledge about a different method for defining a strategy for playing in the market, the main agent chooses the best among all those, and provides it to the market player that requests, to be used in the market. This paper also presents a methodology to manage the efficiency/effectiveness balance of this method, to guarantee that the degradation of the simulator processing times takes the correct measure.

Strategic bidding methodology for electricity markets using adaptive learning

The very particular characteristics of electricity markets, require deep studies of the interactions between the involved players. MASCEM is a market simulator developed to allow studying electricity market negotiations. This paper presents a new proposal for the definition of MASCEM players’ strategies to negotiate in the market. The proposed methodology is implemented as a multiagent system, using reinforcement learning algorithms to provide players with the capabilities to perceive the changes in the environment, while adapting their bids formulation according to their needs, using a set of different techniques that are at their disposal. This paper also presents a methodology to define players’ models based on the historic of their past actions, interpreting how their choices are affected by past experience, and competition.

Influence of reconstruction parameters during filtered backprojection and ordered-subset expectation maximization in the measurement of the left-ventricular volumes and function during gated SPECT

A crucial method for investigating patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is the calculation of the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). It is, consequently, imperative to precisely estimate the value of LVEF--a process that can be done with myocardial perfusion scintigraphy. Therefore, the present study aimed to establish and compare the estimation performance of the quantitative parameters of the reconstruction methods filtered backprojection (FBP) and ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM). Methods: A beating-heart phantom with known values of end-diastolic volume, end-systolic volume, and LVEF was used. Quantitative gated SPECT/quantitative perfusion SPECT software was used to obtain these quantitative parameters in a semiautomatic mode. The Butterworth filter was used in FBP, with the cutoff frequencies between 0.2 and 0.8 cycles per pixel combined with the orders of 5, 10, 15, and 20. Sixty-three reconstructions were performed using 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 16 OSEM subsets, combined with several iterations: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16, 32, and 64. Results: With FBP, the values of end-diastolic, end-systolic, and the stroke volumes rise as the cutoff frequency increases, whereas the value of LVEF diminishes. This same pattern is verified with the OSEM reconstruction. However, with OSEM there is a more precise estimation of the quantitative parameters, especially with the combinations 2 iterations × 10 subsets and 2 iterations × 12 subsets. Conclusion: The OSEM reconstruction presents better estimations of the quantitative parameters than does FBP. This study recommends the use of 2 iterations with 10 or 12 subsets for OSEM and a cutoff frequency of 0.5 cycles per pixel with the orders 5, 10, or 15 for FBP as the best estimations for the left ventricular volumes and ejection fraction quantification in myocardial perfusion scintigraphy.

Learning objects recommendation in an adaptive educational hypermedia system

The aim of this paper is presenting the modules of the Adaptive Educational Hypermedia System PCMAT, responsible for the recommendation of learning objects. PCMAT is an online collaborative learning platform with a constructivist approach, which assesses the user’s knowledge and presents contents and activities adapted to the characteristics and learning style of students of mathematics in basic schools. The recommendation module and search and retrieval module choose the most adequate learning object, based on the user's characteristics and performance, and in this way contribute to the system’s adaptability.

Study of the influence of count’s number in myocardium in the determination of reproducible functional parameters in Gated-SPECT studies simulated with GATE

Myocardial Perfusion Gated Single Photon Emission Tomography (Gated-SPET) imaging is used for the combined evaluation of myocardial perfusion and left ventricular (LV) function. But standard protocols of the Gated-SPECT studies require long acquisition times for each study. It is therefore important to reduce as much as possible the total duration of image acquisition. However, it is known that this reduction leads to decrease on counts statistics per projection and raises doubts about the validity of the functional parameters determined by Gated-SPECT. Considering that, it’s difficult to carry out this analysis in real patients. For ethical, logistical and economical matters, simulated studies could be required for this analysis. Objective: Evaluate the influence of the total number of counts acquired from myocardium, in the calculation of myocardial functional parameters (LVEF – left ventricular ejection fraction, EDV – end-diastolic volume, ESV – end-sistolic volume) using routine software procedures.

PCMAT, an adaptive learning platform

This paper is about PCMAT, an adaptive learning platform for Mathematics in Basic Education schools. Based on a constructivist approach, PCMAT aims at verifying how techniques from adaptive hypermedia systems can improve e-learning based systems. To achieve this goal, PCMAT includes a Pedagogical Model that contains a set of adaptation rules that influence the student-platform interaction. PCMAT was subject to a preliminary testing with students aged between 12 and 14 years old on the subject of direct proportionality. The results from this preliminary test are quite promising as they seem to demonstrate the validity of our proposal.

Content adaptation for an adaptive hypermedia system

The aim of this paper is presenting the recommendation module of the Mathematics Collaborative Learning Platform (PCMAT). PCMAT is an Adaptive Educational Hypermedia System (AEHS), with a constructivist approach, which presents contents and activities adapted to the characteristics and learning style of students of mathematics in basic schools. The recommendation module is responsible for choosing different learning resources for the platform, based on the user's characteristics and performance. Since the main purpose of an adaptive system is to provide the user with content and interface adaptation, the recommendation module is integral to PCMAT’s adaptation model.

Mass spectrometry parameters optimization for the 46 multiclass pesticides determination in strawberries with gas chromatography ion-trap tandem mass spectrometry

Multiclass analysis method was optimized in order to analyze pesticides traces by gas chromatography with ion-trap and tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS). The influence of some analytical parameters on pesticide signal response was explored. Five ion trap mass spectrometry (IT-MS) operating parameters, including isolation time (IT), excitation voltage (EV), excitation time (ET),maximum excitation energy or “q” value (q), and isolationmass window (IMW) were numerically tested in order to maximize the instrument analytical signal response. For this, multiple linear regression was used in data analysis to evaluate the influence of the five parameters on the analytical response in the ion trap mass spectrometer and to predict its response. The assessment of the five parameters based on the regression equations substantially increased the sensitivity of IT-MS/MS in the MS/MS mode. The results obtained show that for most of the pesticides, these parameters have a strong influence on both signal response and detection limit.Using the optimized method, a multiclass pesticide analysis was performed for 46 pesticides in a strawberry matrix. Levels higher than the limit established for strawberries by the European Union were found in some samples.

Mapping multi-species habitat use for marine conservation planning

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar (Biologia Marinha)

Adaptive mutations in bacteria: high rate and small effects

Evolution by natural selection is driven by the continuous generation of adaptive mutations. We measured the genomic mutation rate that generates beneficial mutations and their effects on fitness in Escherichia coli under conditions in which the effect of competition between lineages carrying different beneficial mutations is minimized. We found a rate on the order of 10–5 per genome per generation, which is 1000 times as high as previous estimates, and a mean selective advantage of 1%. Such a high rate of adaptive evolution has implications for the evolution of antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity.

An adaptive educational system for higher education

The main objective of an Adaptive System is to adequate its relation with the user (content presentation, navigation, interface, etc.) according to a predefined but updatable model of the user that reflects his objectives, preferences, knowledge and competences [Brusilovsky, 2001], [De Bra, 2004]. For Educational Adaptive Systems, the emphasis is placed on the student knowledge in the domain application and learning style, to allow him to reach the learning objectives proposed for his training [Chepegin, 2004]. In Educational AHS, the User Model (UM), or Student Model, has increased relevance: when the student reaches the objectives of the course, the system must be able to readapt, for example, to his knowledge [Brusilovsky, 2001]. Learning Styles are understood as something that intent to define models of how given person learns. Generally it is understood that each person has a Learning Style different and preferred with the objective of achieving better results. Some case studies have proposed that teachers should assess the learning styles of their students and adapt their classroom and methods to best fit each student's learning style [Kolb, 2005], [Martins, 2008]. The learning process must take into consideration the individual cognitive and emotional parts of the student. In summary each Student is unique so the Student personal progress must be monitored and teaching shoul not be not generalized and repetitive [Jonassen, 1991], [Martins, 2008]. The aim of this paper is to present an Educational Adaptive Hypermedia Tool based on Progressive Assessment.