Lower partial moment and information entropy-based dynamic electricity purchasing strategy

In the electricity market environment, load-serving entities (LSEs) will inevitably face risks in purchasing electricity because there are a plethora of uncertainties involved. To maximize profits and minimize risks, LSEs need to develop an optimal strategy to reasonably allocate the purchased electricity amount in different electricity markets such as the spot market, bilateral contract market, and options market. Because risks originate from uncertainties, an approach is presented to address the risk evaluation problem by the combined use of the lower partial moment and information entropy (LPME). The lower partial moment is used to measure the amount and probability of the loss, whereas the information entropy is used to represent the uncertainty of the loss. Electricity purchasing is a repeated procedure; therefore, the model presented represents a dynamic strategy. Under the chance-constrained programming framework, the developed optimization model minimizes the risk of the electricity purchasing portfolio in different markets because the actual profit of the LSE concerned is not less than the specified target under a required confidence level. Then, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is employed to solve the optimization model. Finally, a sample example is used to illustrate the basic features of the developed model and method.

Perturbing event logs to identify cost reduction opportunities: a genetic algorithm-based approach

Organisations are constantly seeking new ways to improve operational efficiencies. This research study investigates a novel way to identify potential efficiency gains in business operations by observing how they are carried out in the past and then exploring better ways of executing them by taking into account trade-offs between time, cost and resource utilisation. This paper demonstrates how they can be incorporated in the assessment of alternative process execution scenarios by making use of a cost environment. A genetic algorithm-based approach is proposed to explore and assess alternative process execution scenarios, where the objective function is represented by a comprehensive cost structure that captures different process dimensions. Experiments conducted with different variants of the genetic algorithm evaluate the approach's feasibility. The findings demonstrate that a genetic algorithm-based approach is able to make use of cost reduction as a way to identify improved execution scenarios in terms of reduced case durations and increased resource utilisation. The ultimate aim is to utilise cost-related insights gained from such improved scenarios to put forward recommendations for reducing process-related cost within organisations.

A random key genetic algorithm for live migration of multiple virtual machines in data centers

Live migration of multiple Virtual Machines (VMs) has become an integral management activity in data centers for power saving, load balancing and system maintenance. While state-of-the-art live migration techniques focus on the improvement of migration performance of an independent single VM, only a little has been investigated to the case of live migration of multiple interacting VMs. Live migration is mostly influenced by the network bandwidth and arbitrarily migrating a VM which has data inter-dependencies with other VMs may increase the bandwidth consumption and adversely affect the performances of subsequent migrations. In this paper, we propose a Random Key Genetic Algorithm (RKGA) that efficiently schedules the migration of a given set of VMs accounting both inter-VM dependency and data center communication network. The experimental results show that the RKGA can schedule the migration of multiple VMs with significantly shorter total migration time and total downtime compared to a heuristic algorithm.

Adaptive estimation of HMM transition probabilities

This paper presents new schemes for recursive estimation of the state transition probabilities for hidden Markov models (HMM's) via extended least squares (ELS) and recursive state prediction error (RSPE) methods. Local convergence analysis for the proposed RSPE algorithm is shown using the ordinary differential equation (ODE) approach developed for the more familiar recursive output prediction error (RPE) methods. The presented scheme converges and is relatively well conditioned compared with the ...

Adaptive estimation of hidden semi-Markov chains with parameterised transition probabilities and exponential decaying states

This paper develops maximum likelihood (ML) estimation schemes for finite-state semi-Markov chains in white Gaussian noise. We assume that the semi-Markov chain is characterised by transition probabilities of known parametric from with unknown parameters. We reformulate this hidden semi-Markov model (HSM) problem in the scalar case as a two-vector homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) problem in which the state consist of the signal augmented by the time to last transition. With this reformulation we apply the expectation Maximumisation (EM ) algorithm to obtain ML estimates of the transition probabilities parameters, Markov state levels and noise variance. To demonstrate our proposed schemes, motivated by neuro-biological applications, we use a damped sinusoidal parameterised function for the transition probabilities.

A Memetic Algorithm for the location-based continuously operating reference stations placement problem in Network Real-Time Kinematic

Network Real-Time Kinematic (NRTK) is a technology that can provide centimeter-level accuracy positioning services in real time, and it is enabled by a network of Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS). The location-oriented CORS placement problem is an important problem in the design of a NRTK as it will directly affect not only the installation and operational cost of the NRTK, but also the quality of positioning services provided by the NRTK. This paper presents a Memetic Algorithm (MA) for the location-oriented CORS placement problem, which hybridizes the powerful explorative search capacity of a genetic algorithm and the efficient and effective exploitative search capacity of a local optimization. Experimental results have shown that the MA has better performance than existing approaches. In this paper we also conduct an empirical study about the scalability of the MA, effectiveness of the hybridization technique and selection of crossover operator in the MA.

BOSTER : an efficient algorithm for mining frequent unordered induced subtrees

Extracting frequent subtrees from the tree structured data has important applications in Web mining. In this paper, we introduce a novel canonical form for rooted labelled unordered trees called the balanced-optimal-search canonical form (BOCF) that can handle the isomorphism problem efficiently. Using BOCF, we define a tree structure guided scheme based enumeration approach that systematically enumerates only the valid subtrees. Finally, we present the balanced optimal search tree miner (BOSTER) algorithm based on BOCF and the proposed enumeration approach, for finding frequent induced subtrees from a database of labelled rooted unordered trees. Experiments on the real datasets compare the efficiency of BOSTER over the two state-of-the-art algorithms for mining induced unordered subtrees, HybridTreeMiner and UNI3. The results are encouraging.

BEST : an efficient algorithm for mining frequent unordered embedded subtrees

This paper presents an algorithm for mining unordered embedded subtrees using the balanced-optimal-search canonical form (BOCF). A tree structure guided scheme based enumeration approach is defined using BOCF for systematically enumerating the valid subtrees only. Based on this canonical form and enumeration technique, the balanced optimal search embedded subtree mining algorithm (BEST) is introduced for mining embedded subtrees from a database of labelled rooted unordered trees. The extensive experiments on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate the efficiency of BEST over the two state-of-the-art algorithms for mining embedded unordered subtrees, SLEUTH and U3.

A continent-wide study reveals clear relationships between regional abiotic conditions and post-dispersal seed predation

Aim Large-scale patterns linking energy availability, biological productivity and diversity form a central focus of ecology. Despite evidence that the activity and abundance of animals may be limited by climatic variables associated with regional biological productivity (e.g. mean annual precipitation and annual actual evapotranspiration), it is unclear whether plant–granivore interactions are themselves influenced by these climatic factors across broad spatial extents. We evaluated whether climatic conditions that are known to alter the abundance and activity of granivorous animals also affect rates of seed removal. Location Eleven sites across temperate North America. Methods We used a common protocol to assess the removal of the same seed species (Avena sativa) over a 2-day period. Model selection via the Akaike information criterion was used to determine a set of candidate binomial generalized linear mixed models that evaluated the relationship between local climatic data and post-dispersal seed predation. Results Annual actual evapotranspiration was the single best predictor of the proportion of seeds removed. Annual actual evapotranspiration and mean annual precipitation were both positively related to mean seed removal and were included in four and three of the top five models, respectively. Annual temperature range was also positively related to seed removal and was an explanatory variable in three of the top four models. Main conclusions Our work provides the first evidence that energy and precipitation, which are known to affect consumer abundance and activity, also translate to strong, predictable patterns of seed predation across a continent. More generally, these findings suggest that future changes in temperature and precipitation could have widespread consequences for plant species composition in grasslands, through impacts on plant recruitment.

Adaptive finite element analysis of elliptic problems based on bubble-type local mesh generation

A new mesh adaptivity algorithm that combines a posteriori error estimation with bubble-type local mesh generation (BLMG) strategy for elliptic differential equations is proposed. The size function used in the BLMG is defined on each vertex during the adaptive process based on the obtained error estimator. In order to avoid the excessive coarsening and refining in each iterative step, two factor thresholds are introduced in the size function. The advantages of the BLMG-based adaptive finite element method, compared with other known methods, are given as follows: the refining and coarsening are obtained fluently in the same framework; the local a posteriori error estimation is easy to implement through the adjacency list of the BLMG method; at all levels of refinement, the updated triangles remain very well shaped, even if the mesh size at any particular refinement level varies by several orders of magnitude. Several numerical examples with singularities for the elliptic problems, where the explicit error estimators are used, verify the efficiency of the algorithm. The analysis for the parameters introduced in the size function shows that the algorithm has good flexibility.

What patient information allows us to make accurate predictions of outcome?

Only some of the information contained in a medical record will be useful to the prediction of patient outcome. We describe a novel method for selecting those outcome predictors which allow us to reliably discriminate between adverse and benign end results. Using the area under the receiver operating characteristic as a nonparametric measure of discrimination, we show how to calculate the maximum discrimination attainable with a given set of discrete valued features. This upper limit forms the basis of our feature selection algorithm. We use the algorithm to select features (from maternity records) relevant to the prediction of failure to progress in labour. The results of this analysis motivate investigation of those predictors of failure to progress relevant to parous and nulliparous sub-populations.

A Boundary-Oriented Chinese Segmentation Method Using NGram Mutual Information

This paper describes our participation in the Chinese word segmentation task of CIPS-SIGHAN 2010. We implemented an n-gram mutual information (NGMI) based segmentation algorithm with the mixed-up features from unsupervised, supervised and dictionarybased segmentation methods. This algorithm is also combined with a simple strategy for out-of-vocabulary (OOV) word recognition. The evaluation for both open and closed training shows encouraging results of our system. The results for OOV word recognition in closed training evaluation were however found unsatisfactory.

Managing and learning with multiple models: Objectives and optimization algorithms

The quality of environmental decisions should be gauged according to managers' objectives. Management objectives generally seek to maximize quantifiable measures of system benefit, for instance population growth rate. Reaching these goals often requires a certain degree of learning about the system. Learning can occur by using management action in combination with a monitoring system. Furthermore, actions can be chosen strategically to obtain specific kinds of information. Formal decision making tools can choose actions to favor such learning in two ways: implicitly via the optimization algorithm that is used when there is a management objective (for instance, when using adaptive management), or explicitly by quantifying knowledge and using it as the fundamental project objective, an approach new to conservation.This paper outlines three conservation project objectives - a pure management objective, a pure learning objective, and an objective that is a weighted mixture of these two. We use eight optimization algorithms to choose actions that meet project objectives and illustrate them in a simulated conservation project. The algorithms provide a taxonomy of decision making tools in conservation management when there is uncertainty surrounding competing models of system function. The algorithms build upon each other such that their differences are highlighted and practitioners may see where their decision making tools can be improved. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Impact of mobility constraints on epidemic broadcast mechanisms in delay-tolerant networks

In this paper, we investigate the effect of mobility constraints on epidemic broadcast mechanisms in DTNs (Delay-Tolerant Networks). Major factors affecting epidemic broadcast performances are its forwarding algorithm and node mobility. The impact of forwarding algorithm and node mobility on epidemic broadcast mechanisms has been actively studied in the literature, but those studies generally use unconstrained mobility models. The objective of this paper is therefore to quantitatively investigate the effect of mobility constraints on epidemic broadcast mechanisms. We evaluate the performances of three classes of epidemic broadcast mechanisms - P-BCAST (PUSH-based BroadCast), SA-BCAST (Self-Adaptive BroadCast), and HP-BCAST (History-based P-BCAST) - with a random waypoint mobility model with mobility constraints. Our finding includes that the existence of mobility constraints significantly improves the reach ability and dissemination speed of epidemic broadcast mechanisms while degrading their efficiency.

Adaptive compliance control of a multi‐legged stair‐climbing robot based on proprioceptive data

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe an innovative compliance control architecture for hybrid multi‐legged robots. The approach was verified on the hybrid legged‐wheeled robot ASGUARD, which was inspired by quadruped animals. The adaptive compliance controller allows the system to cope with a variety of stairs, very rough terrain, and is also able to move with high velocity on flat ground without changing the control parameters. Design/methodology/approach – The paper shows how this adaptivity results in a versatile controller for hybrid legged‐wheeled robots. For the locomotion control we use an adaptive model of motion pattern generators. The control approach takes into account the proprioceptive information of the torques, which are applied on the legs. The controller itself is embedded on a FPGA‐based, custom designed motor control board. An additional proprioceptive inclination feedback is used to make the same controller more robust in terms of stair‐climbing capabilities. Findings – The robot is well suited for disaster mitigation as well as for urban search and rescue missions, where it is often necessary to place sensors or cameras into dangerous or inaccessible areas to get a better situation awareness for the rescue personnel, before they enter a possibly dangerous area. A rugged, waterproof and dust‐proof corpus and the ability to swim are additional features of the robot. Originality/value – Contrary to existing approaches, a pre‐defined walking pattern for stair‐climbing was not used, but an adaptive approach based only on internal sensor information. In contrast to many other walking pattern based robots, the direct proprioceptive feedback was used in order to modify the internal control loop, thus adapting the compliance of each leg on‐line.