Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs

This paper is motivated by the recent interest in the use of Bayesian VARs for forecasting, even in cases where the number of dependent variables is large. In such cases, factor methods have been traditionally used but recent work using a particular prior suggests that Bayesian VAR methods can forecast better. In this paper, we consider a range of alternative priors which have been used with small VARs, discuss the issues which arise when they are used with medium and large VARs and examine their forecast performance using a US macroeconomic data set containing 168 variables. We nd that Bayesian VARs do tend to forecast better than factor methods and provide an extensive comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. Our empirical results show the importance of using forecast metrics which use the entire predictive density, instead of using only point forecasts.

Medium-term protocols for in vivo evaluation of chemical modifiers of carcinogenesis

Cancer development is a long-term multistep process which allows interventional measure before the clincial disease emerges. the detection of natural substances which can block the process of carcinogenesis is a important as the identification of anti-tumoral drugs since they might be used in chemoprevention of cancer in high-risk groups. In vivo rodent models of chemical caecinogenesis have been used to study plant-derived inhibitors of carcinofenesis such as indols, coumarins, isothiocyanates, flavones, phenols and allyl-sulfides. Since the standard in vivo rodent bioassay is prolonged and expensive, shorter reliable protocols are needed. Two in vivo medium-term protocols for evaluation of modifiers of carcinogenesis are presented, one related to liver and the other to bladder cancer. Both protocols use rats, last 8 and 36 weeks and are based on the two-step concept of carcinogenesis: initiation and promotion. The protocols use respectively the development of altered foci of hepatocytes expressing immunochistochemically the placental form of gluthation S-transferase and the appearence of pre-neoplastic urothelium and papillomas as the "end-points". the use of these protocols for detection of plantpderived inhibitors of carcinogenesis appear warranted.

Geochemistry of highly acidic mine water following disposal into a natural lake with carbonate bedrock

Acid mine drainage (AMD) from the Zn-Pb(-Ag-Bi-Cu) deposit of Cerro de Pasco (Central Peru) and waste water from a Cu-extraction plant has been discharged since 1981 into Lake Yanamate, a natural lake with carbonate bedrock. The lake has developed a highly acidic pH of similar to 1. Mean lake water chemistry was characterized by 16,775 mg/L acidity as CaCO(3), 4330 mg/L Fe and 29,250 mg/L SO(4). Mean trace element concentrations were 86.8 mg/L Cu, 493 mg/L Zn, 2.9 mg/L Pb and 48 mg/L As, which did not differ greatly from the discharged AMD. Most elements showed increasing concentrations from the surface to the lake bottom at a maximal depth of 41 m (e.g. from 3581 to 5433 mg/L Fe and 25,609 to 35,959 mg/L SO(4)). The variations in the H and 0 isotope compositions and the element concentrations within the upper 10 m of the water column suggest mixing with recently discharged AMD, shallow groundwater and precipitation waters. Below 15 m a stagnant zone had developed. Gypsum (saturation index, SI similar to 0.25) and anglesite (SI similar to 0.1) were in equilibrium with lake water. Jarosite was oversaturated (SI similar to 1.7) in the upper part of the water column, resulting in downward settling and re-dissolution in the lower part of the water column (SI similar to -0.7). Accordingly, jarosite was only found in sediments from less than 7 m water depth. At the lake bottom, a layer of gel-like material (similar to 90 wt.% water) of pH similar to 1 with a total organic C content of up to 4.40 wet wt.% originated from the kerosene discharge of the Cu-extraction plant and had contaminant element concentrations similar to the lake water. Below the organic layer followed a layer of gypsum with pH 1.5, which overlaid the dissolving carbonate sediments of pH 5.3-7. In these two layers the contaminant elements were enriched compared to lake water in the sequence As < Pb approximate to Cu < Cd < Zn = Mn with increasing depth. This sequence of enrichment was explained by the following processes: (i) adsorption of As on Fe-hydroxides coating plant roots at low pH (up to 3326 mg/kg As), (ii) adsorption at increasing pH near the gypsum/calcite boundary (up to 1812 mg/kg Pb, 2531 mg/kg Cu. and 36 mg/kg Cd), and (iii) precipitation of carbonates (up to 5177 mg/kg Zn and 810 mg/kg Mn: all data corrected to a wet base). The infiltration rate was approximately equal to the discharge rate, thus gypsum and hydroxide precipitation had not resulted in complete clogging of the lake bedrocks. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A medium for inducing conversion of Histoplasma capsulatum var. capsulatum into its yeast-like form

Histoplasma capsulatum var. capsulatum is a dimorphic fungus that, under special conditions, converts from its more common mycelial form to a yeast-like form. Achieving this conversion, however, has been problematical for researchers. The present study tested conversion rates in ten Histoplasma capsulatum var. capsulatum strains using seven culture media, four of wich were conventional and three novel. One of our novel media, MLGema, induced complete conversion, of two strains within five days of incubation at 35 degrees centigrades, and of all strains that eventually converted by the time of the second subculturing transfer, under defined experimental conditions. MLGema is also inexpensive and easy to produce.

Postmortem computed tomography angiography, contrast medium administration and toxicological analyses in urine.

Postmortem angiography methods that use water soluble or lipid soluble liquid contrast compounds may potentially modify the composition of fluid-based biological samples and thus influence toxicological findings. In this study, we investigated whether toxicological investigations performed in urine collected prior to and post angiography using Angiofil? mixed with paraffin oil are characterized by different qualitative or quantitative results. In addition, we studied whether diluting samples with 1% and 3% contrast medium solution may modify molecule concentration. A postmortem angiography group consisting of 50 cases and a postmortem group without angiography consisting of 50 cases were formed. In the first group, toxicological investigations were performed in urine samples collected prior to and post angiography as well as in undiluted and diluted samples. In the second group, analyses were performed in undiluted and diluted urine, bile, gastric content, cerebrospinal and pericardial fluids collected during autopsy. The preliminary results indicate that differences may be observed between urine samples collected prior to and post angiography in the number of identified molecules in relation to specific cases. Analyses performed in diluted samples failed to reveal differences that might potentially alter the interpretation of toxicological results in all analyzed specimens for nearly all molecules, except for tetrahydrocannabinol and its metabolites. Though these findings suggest that toxicology might be effectively performed, in very special cases and for a large number of molecules, in biological samples collected after angiography, it remains recommendable to collect biological fluids for toxicology prior to contrast medium injection.

Use of a selective medium with potassium tellurite to follow intestinal colonization of hospitalized patients by drug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae

Nosocomial infections are a relevant factor in complicating the recovery of patients interned for even minor causes. In attempt to determine their origin it is crucial to consider that their origin is of an endogenous nature. Looking for an acessible expression of intestinal colonization we analyzed fecal samples from 3 separate groups of hospital patients collected after different lenghts of time. For practical reasons one group was studied prospectively and two other groups (patients hospitalized for up to 7 days and patients hospitalized for more than 7 days) were compared to one another. We looked for the emergence of tellurite resistance among Enterobacteriaceae using a selective medium. MacConkey potassium tellurite (MCPT). The frequence of prospectively studied patients with tellurite resistant strains was significantly greater after 7 days of hospitalization. For the two other groups, patients with more than 7 days of hospitalization showed a significant increase of bacterial species and of strains with new antimicrobial resistance markers. High molecular weigth plasmids were detected in some of these strains. These data show that the MCPT medium is a useful tool for the investigation of bowel colonization in hospitalized patients by drug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae.

DETERMINATION OF CELL-SPECIFIC NEUROTOXICITY OF MALONATE, METHYLMALONATE AND PROPIONATE IN A 3D RAT BRAIN CELL AGGREGATE SYSTEM

Malonate, methylmalonate and propionate are potentially neurotoxic metabolites in branched-chain organic acidurias. Their effects were tested on cultured 3D rat brain cell aggregates, using dosages of 0.1, 1.0 and 10.0 mM with a short but intense (twice a day over 3 days) and a longer but less intense treatment (every 3 rdday over 9 days). CNS cell-specific immunohistochemical stainings allowed the follow-up of neurons (axons, phosphorylated medium-weight neurofilament), astrocytes (glial fibrillary acidic protein) and oligodendrocytes (myelin basic protein). Methylmalonate and malonate were quantified by tandem mass spectrometry. Tandem mass spectrometry analysis of harvested brain cell aggregates revealed clear intracellular accumulation of methylmalonate and malonate. In immunohistochemical stainings oligodendrocytes appeared the most affected brain cells. The MBP signal disappeared already at 0.1 mM treatment with each metabolite. Mature astrocytes were not affected by propionate, while immature astrocytes on intense treatment with propionate developed cell swelling. 1 mM methylmalonate induced cell swelling of both immature and mature astrocytes , while 1 mM malonate only affected mature astrocytes. Neurons were not affected by methylmalonate, but 10.0 mM malonate on less intense treatment and 0.1, 1.0 and 10.0 mM propionate on intense treatment affected axonal growth. Our study shows significant uptake and deleterious effects of these metabolites on brain cells, principally on astrocytes and oligodendrocytes. This may be explained by the absence of the pathway in glial cells, which thus are not able to degrade these metabolites. Further studies are ongoing to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of the observed neurotoxic effects.

Simultaneous cell morphometry and refractive index measurement with dual-wavelength digital holographic microscopy and dye-enhanced dispersion of perfusion medium.

Digital holographic microscopy (DHM) allows optical-path-difference (OPD) measurements with nanometric accuracy. OPD induced by transparent cells depends on both the refractive index (RI) of cells and their morphology. This Letter presents a dual-wavelength DHM that allows us to separately measure both the RI and the cellular thickness by exploiting an enhanced dispersion of the perfusion medium achieved by the utilization of an extracellular dye. The two wavelengths are chosen in the vicinity of the absorption peak of the dye, where the absorption is accompanied by a significant variation of the RI as a function of the wavelength.

Television before TV : a transnational history of an experimental medium on display, 1928 - 1939

Dès le milieu des années 1920 et le développement des premiers prototypes fonctionnels, la télévision se fait objet d'exposition. La nouvelle technologie est montrée à des foires industrielles et dans des grands magasins, à des expositions universelles et nationales : exposée, la télévision devient un mass media avant même qu'elle ne diffuse des émissions régulières. En étudiant les présentations publiques de la télévision en Allemagne, en Grande-Bretagne et aux Etats-Unis entre 1928 - date de l'ouverture des premières expositions annuelles dans les trois pays - et 1939 - moment de l'interruption de celles-ci suite à l'éclatement de la Deuxième Guerre mondiale - Television before TV montre que les lieux où le médium rencontre son premier public constituent les mêmes espaces qui, rétrospectivement, permettent de comprendre son avènement. Cette recherche propose ainsi de nouvelles pistes pour l'histoire des médias en interrogeant la définition de la télévision en tant que médium du privé. Elle rappelle l'importance historique de l'espace public pour la « vision à distance » et, dépassant la perspective nationale, reconstitue les différences et similarités techniques, médiatiques et institutionnelles de la télévision allemande, américaine et britannique dans l'entre-deux-guerres. Développée dans un contexte qui est simultanément nationaliste et nourri d'échanges et de compétitions internationales, la télévision sert de comparatif dans les rivalités entre pays, mais stimule également la circulation de savoir-faire et de personnes. Sa forte valeur symbolique comme emblème du progrès scientifique et, dans le cas allemand, comme preuve de la modernité du régime national-socialiste se traduit dans les salles d'expositions par des scénographies souvent innovatrices, dont les photographies et descriptions se propagent au-delà de la presse locale. Au centre d'un réseau discursif et représentationnel, les expositions jouent alors un rôle essentiel pour la construction sociale, politique et culturelle de la télévision. Remplaçant l'analyse de textes audiovisuels par l'étude de la machine exposée, ma recherche reformule la question bazinienne de qu'est-ce que la télévision ? pour demander où le médium se situe-t-il ? Cette prémisse méthodologique permet de contourner une évaluation qualitative de la technologie qui déplorerait ses multiples imperfections, et éclaire d'un nouveau jour des dispositifs télévisuels qui, même sans programme, intègrent un univers voué à la culture de consommation et du loisir.

Efficacité a court et moyen termes des traitements d'urgence-crise pour couples et families: résultats et perspectives [Short and medium-term effectiveness of the emergency-crisis treatments for couples and families: results and perspectives].

From 2007 to 2010, the emergency-crisis unit of the Couple and Family Consultation Unit -UCCF (West Psychiatric Service, Prangins Psychiatric Hospital, Psychiatric Department of CHUV) has carried out a research about the relevance and usefulness of emergency-crisis, systemic-oriented treatments, for deeply distressed couples and families. Besides epidemiologic data, we present results demonstrating the efficiency of those treatments, both at short-term and at a one year's range. The global impact of such treatments in terms of public health, but also economical issues, make us believe that they should be fully included in the new trend of psychiatric ambulatory care, into the social net.