Caracterização gfeológico-geotécnica aplicada a gestão de risco no gasoduto GASBOL, trecho Ipeúna/SP - Itirapina/SP

The pipelines are characterized by the great length and linearity, these enterprises are usually associated with the horizon of soil and decomposed rock and accidents in this system usually have high complexity. So this work proposes a study of geological and geotechnical characterization of approximately 40 km ² and a study of risk analysis along 18.3 km of gas pipeline GASBOL, in the municipalities of Ipeúna-SP and Itirapina-SP, in scale 1:25.000, besides correlation between studies. The method for geological and geotechnical characterization is based on physiographic integrated analysis technique, which is supported by literature research, observation and interpretation of satellite imagery (photointerpretation), correlation of products numerical model of ground, fieldwork. The method adopted for risk classification is based on preliminary analysis of hazards (APP) technique, which is identified the geological process, this feature is classified as the susceptibility of occurrence, and then classified as the possible consequence of the process, if this evolves. As a product of the research, we designed a map in 1:25,000 scale, containing a table of geological and geotechnical characteristics of the mapped drives, as well as sectorization risk in each section of the pipeline. Were mapped geological and geotechnical seven units in the study area, delimited in excerpts of which five are classified as high risk, totaling 1.1 km in length of 18.3 km total

Aspectos do controle de resíduos de avermectinas no abate de bovinos

Pós-graduação em Medicina Veterinária - FCAV

Occurrence of periodontal pathogens in ethnic groups from a native Brazilian reservation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Rentabilidade e Risco da Produção de Milho Safrinha Geneticamente Modificado e Convencional na Região de Guaíra/sp

The objective of this study was to dimension the economic risks and returns on adopters of genetically modified (GM) maize in one of the major corn producing regions of São Paulo state. We performed analysis of variation of the quantities and prices of insecticides used, productivity gains, and variation in the price differentials between GM maize and conventional hybrids seeds, according to account to the maize prices oscillation during the period studied. The net benefits methodology was used, in other words, the economic gains minus the costs of GM technology under risk conditions were calculated. The net benefits was calculated as a function of four critical variables: 1) GM maize productivity; 2) costs of pest control; 3) maize price; 4) GM seeds cost. The probability distribution functions of these critical variables were estimated and included in the net benefit equation. Using the Monte Carlo simulation methodology, the following indicator sets were estimated: central tendency measurements, variability in net benefits (total benefits minus total costs), sensitivity analysis of the net benefits in relation to the critical variables, and finally, a map of the risk to GM technology adopters. These indicators allow one to design economic scenarios associated with their probability of occurring. The results showed probability of 85% to positive gains to the farmers who adopted the transgenic maize seed cultivation. The variable with the greatest impact on the farmers' income was the reduction in productivity loss, that means, as higher is the maize productivity, higher will be the net income. The average gain was US$ 137,41 (R$ 2.45/US$)per hectare with the adoption of transgenic maize seed when compared to conventional maize seed.

Incorporação de incertezas associadas à predição de modelos hidrológicos aos instrumentos de gestão em recursos hídricos

Water management has in the watershed plans an important tool to plan the territory and adjust the activities develop over it to the natural resources availability. The incorporation of uncertainty analysis associated with hydrological modelling predictions is a manner to simulate scenarios and work with chances and probabilities that certain events happens inside these plans. Using stochastic methods is possible to consider uncertainty from estimations and even model it. Stochastic methods developed considerably during the last 30 years, but its applications to real-world problems have been limited, and did not turn into routine in hydrology. This paper brings an overview from eminent hydrologists about this subject and discuss the Brazilian and Paulista situation in the scope of groundwater monitoring.

Sensitivity of Eisenia andrei (Annelida, Oligochaeta) to a commercial formulation of abamectin in avoidance tests with artificial substrate and natural soil under tropical conditions

Obtaining ecotoxicological data on pesticides in tropical regions is imperative for performing more realistic risk analysis, and avoidance tests have been proposed as a useful, fast and cost-effective tool. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the avoidance behavior of Eisenia andrei to a formulated product, Vertimec(A (R)) 18 EC (a.i abamectin), in tests performed on a reference tropical artificial soil (TAS), to derive ecotoxicological data on tropical conditions, and a natural soil (NS), simulating crop field conditions. In TAS tests an adaptation of the substrate recommended by OECD and ISO protocols was used, with residues of coconut fiber as a source of organic matter. Concentrations of the pesticide on TAS test ranged from 0 to 7 mg abamectin/kg (dry weight-d.w.). In NS tests, earthworms were exposed to samples of soils sprayed in situ with: 0.9 L of Vertimec(A (R)) 18 EC/ha (RD); twice as much this dosage (2RD); and distilled water (Control), respectively, and to 2RD: control dilutions (12.5, 25, 50, 75%). All tests were performed under 25 +/- A 2A degrees C, to simulate tropical conditions, and a 12hL:12hD photoperiod. The organisms avoided contaminated TAS for an EC50,48h = 3.918 mg/kg soil d.w., LOEC = 1.75 mg/kg soil d.w. and NOEC = 0.85 mg/kg soil d.w. No significant avoidance response occurred for any NS test. Abamectin concentrations in NS were rather lower than EC50, 48h and LOEC determined in TAS tests. The results obtained contribute to overcome a lack of ecotoxicological data on pesticides under tropical conditions, but more tests with different soil invertebrates are needed to improve pesticides risk analysis.

Responses of transplanted native tree species to invasive alien grass removals in an abandoned cattle pasture in the Lacandon region, Mexico

We tested the early performance of 16 native early-, mid-, and late-successional tree species in response to four intensities of grass removal in an abandoned cattle pasture dominated by the introduced, invasive African grass, Cynodon plectostachyus, within the Lacandon rainforest region, southeast Mexico. The increase in grass removals significantly improved the performance of many species, especially of early-and mid-successional species, while performance of late-successional species was relatively poor and did not differ significantly among treatments. Good site preparation and at least one additional grass removal four months after seedling transplant were found to be essential; additional grass removals led to improved significantly performance of saplings in most cases. In order to evaluate the potential of transplanting tree seedlings successfully in abandoned tropical pastures, we developed a "planting risk index", combining field performance measurements and plantation cost estimations. Our results showed a great potential for establishing restoration plantings with many early-and mid-successional species. Although planting risk of late-successional species was considered high, certain species showed some possibilities of acclimation after 18 months and should be considered in future plantation arrangements in view of their long-term contributions to biodiversity maintenance and also to human welfare through delivery of ecosystem services. Conducting a planting risk analysis can help avoid failure of restoration strategies involving simultaneous planting of early-, mid-, and late-successional tree species. This in turn will improve cost-effectiveness of initial interventions in large-scale, long-term restoration programs.

L'analisi di rischio nel trasporto stradale di merci pericolose: due software a confronto

Confronto tra due software specifici per l'analisi di rischio nel trasporto stradale di merci pericolose (TRAT GIS 4.1 e QRAM 3.6) mediante applicazione a un caso di studio semplice e al caso reale di Casalecchio di Reno, comune della provincia di Bologna.

Model reduction of stochastic groundwater flow and transport processes

This work presents a comprehensive methodology for the reduction of analytical or numerical stochastic models characterized by uncertain input parameters or boundary conditions. The technique, based on the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) theory, represents a versatile solution to solve direct or inverse problems related to propagation of uncertainty. The potentiality of the methodology is assessed investigating different applicative contexts related to groundwater flow and transport scenarios, such as global sensitivity analysis, risk analysis and model calibration. This is achieved by implementing a numerical code, developed in the MATLAB environment, presented here in its main features and tested with literature examples. The procedure has been conceived under flexibility and efficiency criteria in order to ensure its adaptability to different fields of engineering; it has been applied to different case studies related to flow and transport in porous media. Each application is associated with innovative elements such as (i) new analytical formulations describing motion and displacement of non-Newtonian fluids in porous media, (ii) application of global sensitivity analysis to a high-complexity numerical model inspired by a real case of risk of radionuclide migration in the subsurface environment, and (iii) development of a novel sensitivity-based strategy for parameter calibration and experiment design in laboratory scale tracer transport.

Removable partial dentures

On one side, prosthodontic reconstructions compensate for the sequelae of negative changes in the oral cavity; on the other side, they often enhance or accelerate them. As a consequence of negative changes in the oral cavity over time, treatment planning for RPDs becomes highly complex. A set of reliable criteria is necessary for decision-making and problem management It appears that the majority of published data on RPDs does not depict high effectiveness of this treatment modality. From a strict point of view of evidence-based dentistry, the level of evidence is low if not missing for RPDs. Randomized controlled trials on RPDs are difficult to design, they are not feasible for some questions due to the complexity of the material, or may remain without clinical relevance. The literature rarely gives information on the denture design, tooth selection, and management of the compromised structural integrity of teeth. So far treatment outcomes with RPDs must be considered under the aspect of bias due to the bias in indication and patient selection for RPDs. Better clinical models should be elaborated with more stringent concepts for providing RPDs. This encompasses: risk analysis and patient assessment, proper indications for maintenance or extraction of teeth, strategic placement of implants, biomechanical aspects, materials, and technology. Although there is a tendency to offer fixed prostheses to our patients, this might change again with demographic changes and with an increase in the ageing population, an increase in their reduced dentition, and low socioeconomic wealth in large parts of the world.

Magnitude and frequency: challenges for the assessment of vulnerability to geomorphic hazards

In natural hazard research, risk is defined as a function of (1) the probability of occurrence of a hazardous process, and (2) the assessment of the related extent of damage, defined by the value of elements at risk exposed and their physical vulnerability. Until now, various works have been undertaken to determine vulnerability values for objects exposed to geomorphic hazards such as mountain torrents. Yet, many studies only provide rough estimates for vulnerability values based on proxies for process intensities. However, the deduced vulnerability functions proposed in the literature show a wide range, in particular with respect to medium and high process magnitudes. In our study, we compare vulnerability functions for torrent processes derived from studies in test sites located in the Austrian Alps and in Taiwan. Based on this comparison we expose needs for future research in order to enhance mountain hazard risk management with a particular focus on the question of vulnerability on a catchment scale.

Continuum damage interactions between tension and compression in osteonal bone

Skeletal diseases such as osteoporosis impose a severe socio-economic burden to ageing societies. Decreasing mechanical competence causes a rise in bone fracture incidence and mortality especially after the age of 65 y. The mechanisms of how bone damage is accumulated under different loading modes and its impact on bone strength are unclear. We hypothesise that damage accumulated in one loading mode increases the fracture risk in another. This study aimed at identifying continuum damage interactions between tensile and compressive loading modes. We propose and identify the material constants of a novel piecewise 1D constitutive model capable of describing the mechanical response of bone in combined tensile and compressive loading histories. We performed several sets of loading–reloading experiments to compute stiffness, plastic strains, and stress-strain curves. For tensile overloading, a stiffness reduction (damage) of 60% at 0.65% accumulated plastic strain was detectable as stiffness reduction of 20% under compression. For compressive overloading, 60% damage at 0.75% plastic strain was detectable as a stiffness reduction of 50% in tension. Plastic strain at ultimate stress was the same in tension and compression. Compression showed softening and tension exponential hardening in the post-yield regime. The hardening behaviour in compression is unaffected by a previous overload in tension but the hardening behaviour in tension is affected by a previous overload in compression as tensile reloading strength is significantly reduced. This paper demonstrates how damage accumulated under one loading mode affects the mechanical behaviour in another loading mode. To explain this and to illustrate a possible implementation we proposed a theoretical model. Including such loading mode dependent damage and plasticity behaviour in finite element models will help to improve fracture risk analysis of whole bones and bone implant structures.

Proton therapy versus intensity modulated x-ray therapy in the treatment of prostate cancer: Estimating secondary cancer risks

External beam radiation therapy is used to treat nearly half of the more than 200,000 new cases of prostate cancer diagnosed in the United States each year. During a radiation therapy treatment, healthy tissues in the path of the therapeutic beam are exposed to high doses. In addition, the whole body is exposed to a low-dose bath of unwanted scatter radiation from the pelvis and leakage radiation from the treatment unit. As a result, survivors of radiation therapy for prostate cancer face an elevated risk of developing a radiogenic second cancer. Recently, proton therapy has been shown to reduce the dose delivered by the therapeutic beam to normal tissues during treatment compared to intensity modulated x-ray therapy (IMXT, the current standard of care). However, the magnitude of stray radiation doses from proton therapy, and their impact on this incidence of radiogenic second cancers, was not known. ^ The risk of a radiogenic second cancer following proton therapy for prostate cancer relative to IMXT was determined for 3 patients of large, median, and small anatomical stature. Doses delivered to healthy tissues from the therapeutic beam were obtained from treatment planning system calculations. Stray doses from IMXT were taken from the literature, while stray doses from proton therapy were simulated using a Monte Carlo model of a passive scattering treatment unit and an anthropomorphic phantom. Baseline risk models were taken from the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to characterize the uncertainty of risk calculations to uncertainties in the risk model, the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons for carcinogenesis, and inter-patient anatomical variations. ^ The risk projections revealed that proton therapy carries a lower risk for radiogenic second cancer incidence following prostate irradiation compared to IMXT. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the results of the risk analysis depended only weakly on uncertainties in the risk model and inter-patient variations. Second cancer risks were sensitive to changes in the RBE of neutrons. However, the findings of the study were qualitatively consistent for all patient sizes and risk models considered, and for all neutron RBE values less than 100. ^

Inclusión en modelos de riesgo de presas de una metodología de estimación hidrológica basada en técnicas de Monte Carlo

En este estudio se aplica una metodología de obtención de las leyes de frecuencia derivadas (de caudales máximo vertidos y niveles máximos alcanzados) en un entorno de simulaciones de Monte Carlo, para su inclusión en un modelo de análisis de riesgo de presas. Se compara su comportamiento respecto del uso de leyes de frecuencia obtenidas con las técnicas tradicionalmente utilizadas.