Designed Extension of Survival Studies: Application to Clinical Trials with Unrecognized Heterogeneity

It is well known that unrecognized heterogeneity among patients, such as is conferred by genetic subtype, can undermine the power of randomized trial, designed under the assumption of homogeneity, to detect a truly beneficial treatment. We consider the conditional power approach to allow for recovery of power under unexplained heterogeneity. While Proschan and Hunsberger (1995) confined the application of conditional power design to normally distributed observations, we consider more general and difficult settings in which the data are in the framework of continuous time and are subject to censoring. In particular, we derive a procedure appropriate for the analysis of the weighted log rank test under the assumption of a proportional hazards frailty model. The proposed method is illustrated through application to a brain tumor trial.

Analyzing Panel Count Data with Informative Observation Times

In this paper, we study panel count data with informative observation times. We assume nonparametric and semiparametric proportional rate models for the underlying recurrent event process, where the form of the baseline rate function is left unspecified and a subject-specific frailty variable inflates or deflates the rate function multiplicatively. The proposed models allow the recurrent event processes and observation times to be correlated through their connections with the unobserved frailty; moreover, the distributions of both the frailty variable and observation times are considered as nuisance parameters. The baseline rate function and the regression parameters are estimated by maximizing a conditional likelihood function of observed event counts and solving estimation equations. Large sample properties of the proposed estimators are studied. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed estimation procedures perform well for moderate sample sizes. An application to a bladder tumor study is presented to illustrate the use of the proposed methods.

Nonparametric Estimation of the Bivariate Recurrence Time Distribution

This paper considers statistical models in which two different types of events, such as the diagnosis of a disease and the remission of the disease, occur alternately over time and are observed subject to right censoring. We propose nonparametric estimators for the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times and the marginal distribution of the first recurrence time. In general, the marginal distribution of the second recurrence time cannot be estimated due to an identifiability problem, but a conditional distribution of the second recurrence time can be estimated non-parametrically. In literature, statistical methods have been developed to estimate the joint distribution of bivariate recurrence times based on data of the first pair of censored bivariate recurrence times. These methods are efficient in the current model because recurrence times of higher orders are not used. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are established. Numerical studies demonstrate the estimator performs well with practical sample sizes. We apply the proposed method to a Denmark psychiatric case register data set for illustration of the methods and theory.

Statistical shape analysis via principal factor analysis

Statistical shape analysis techniques commonly employed in the medical imaging community, such as active shape models or active appearance models, rely on principal component analysis (PCA) to decompose shape variability into a reduced set of interpretable components. In this paper we propose principal factor analysis (PFA) as an alternative and complementary tool to PCA providing a decomposition into modes of variation that can be more easily interpretable, while still being a linear efficient technique that performs dimensionality reduction (as opposed to independent component analysis, ICA). The key difference between PFA and PCA is that PFA models covariance between variables, rather than the total variance in the data. The added value of PFA is illustrated on 2D landmark data of corpora callosa outlines. Then, a study of the 3D shape variability of the human left femur is performed. Finally, we report results on vector-valued 3D deformation fields resulting from non-rigid registration of ventricles in MRI of the brain.

Predicting the evolution of Kaposi sarcoma, in the highly active antiretroviral therapy era

BACKGROUND: The outcome of Kaposi sarcoma varies. While many patients do well on highly active antiretroviral therapy, others have progressive disease and need chemotherapy. In order to predict which patients are at risk of unfavorable evolution, we established a prognostic score. METHOD: The survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier method; Cox proportional hazards models) of 144 patients with Kaposi sarcoma prospectively included in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, from January 1996 to December 2004, was conducted. OUTCOME ANALYZED: use of chemotherapy or death. VARIABLES ANALYZED: demographics, tumor staging [T0 or T1 (16)], CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 RNA concentration, human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) DNA in plasma and serological titers to latent and lytic antigens. RESULTS: Of 144 patients, 54 needed chemotherapy or died. In the univariate analysis, tumor stage T1, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl, positive HHV8 DNA and absence of antibodies against the HHV8 lytic antigen at the time of diagnosis were significantly associated with a bad outcome.Using multivariate analysis, the following variables were associated with an increased risk of unfavorable outcome: T1 [hazard ratio (HR) 5.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.97-9.18], CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl (HR 2.33; 95% CI 1.22-4.45) and positive HHV8 DNA (HR 2.14; 95% CI 1.79-2.85).We created a score with these variables ranging from 0 to 4: T1 stage counted for two points, CD4 cell count below 200 cells/microl for one point, and positive HHV8 viral load for one point. Each point increase was associated with a HR of 2.26 (95% CI 1.79-2.85). CONCLUSION: In the multivariate analysis, staging (T1), CD4 cell count (<200 cells/microl), positive HHV8 DNA in plasma, at the time of diagnosis, predict evolution towards death or the need of chemotherapy.

Vascular endothelial growth factors, angiogenesis, and survival in human ileal enterochromaffin cell carcinoids

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Well-differentiated neuro-endocrine ileal carcinoids are composed of serotonin-producing enterochromaffin (EC) cells. Life expectancy is determined by metastatic spread to the liver because medical treatment options are still very limited. Selective inhibition of angiogenesis or lymphangiogenesis might prevent tumour growth and metastatic spread. We examined the role of the vascular endothelial growth factors (VEGFs) A, B, C, D, and their receptors (VEGFRs) 1, 2, 3 in angiogenesis and lymphangiogenesis of ileal EC cell carcinoids with and without liver metastases. METHODS: The expression of various VEGFs and VEGFRs was determined by quantitative real-time RT-PCR in healthy mucosa, primary tumour, lymph node metastases and liver metastases of 25 patients with ileal EC cell carcinoids. Microvessel density (MVD) was determined by CD-31 staining in primary tumours and lymphatic vessel density (LVD) by LYVE-1 staining. VEGF expression levels, MVD, LVD, and patients' survival time were correlated using logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. RESULTS: VEGF-A was highly expressed with no difference between normal mucosa and tumours. VEGF-B and -D as well as VEGFR-1 and -2 expression levels were significantly increased in the tumours when compared to normal mucosa. Patients with liver metastasis, however, had a significantly lower expression of the factors A, B, and C and the receptors 2 and 3. MVD in primary tumours positively correlated with the expression of VEGF ligands and their receptors, except for VEGF-D. LVD did not correlate with any VEGF ligand or receptor. Interestingly, low expression levels of VEGF-B were associated with poor survival. CONCLUSION: Patients with more aggressive metastatic spreading had relatively decreased expression levels of VEGF ligands and receptors. Thus, anti-angiogenic therapy may not be a suitable target in metastatic ileal EC cell carcinoids.

Incidence and outcome of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy over 20 years of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: We investigated the incidence and outcome of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals before and after the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in 1996. METHODS: From 1988 through 2007, 226 cases of PML were reported to the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. By chart review, we confirmed 186 cases and recorded all-cause and PML-attributable mortality. For the survival analysis, 25 patients with postmortem diagnosis and 2 without CD4+ T cell counts were excluded, leaving a total of 159 patients (89 before 1996 and 70 during 1996-2007). RESULTS: The incidence rate of PML decreased from 0.24 cases per 100 patient-years (PY; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20-0.29 cases per 100 PY) before 1996 to 0.06 cases per 100 PY (95% CI, 0.04-0.10 cases per 100 PY) from 1996 onward. Patients who received a diagnosis before 1996 had a higher frequency of prior acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-defining conditions (P = .007) but similar CD4+ T cell counts (60 vs. 71 cells/microL; P = .25), compared with patients who received a diagnosis during 1996 or thereafter. The median time to PML-attributable death was 71 days (interquartile range, 44-140 days), compared with 90 days (interquartile range, 54-313 days) for all-cause mortality. The PML-attributable 1-year mortality rate decreased from 82.3 cases per 100 PY (95% CI, 58.8-115.1 cases per 100 PY) during the pre-cART era to 37.6 cases per 100 PY (95% CI, 23.4.-60.5 cases per 100 PY) during the cART era. In multivariate models, cART was the only factor associated with lower PML-attributable mortality (hazard ratio, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.07-0.50; P < .001), whereas all-cause mortality was associated with baseline CD4+ T cell count (hazard ratio per increase of 100 cells/microL, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.32-0.85; P = .010) and cART use (hazard ratio, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.19-0.75; P = .006). CONCLUSIONS: cART reduced the incidence and PML-attributable 1-year mortality, regardless of baseline CD4+ T cell count, whereas overall mortality was dependent on cART use and baseline CD4+ T cell count.

Hierarchical modeling gave plausible estimates of associations between metabolic syndrome and components of antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE: Hierarchical modeling has been proposed as a solution to the multiple exposure problem. We estimate associations between metabolic syndrome and different components of antiretroviral therapy using both conventional and hierarchical models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We use discrete time survival analysis to estimate the association between metabolic syndrome and cumulative exposure to 16 antiretrovirals from four drug classes. We fit a hierarchical model where the drug class provides a prior model of the association between metabolic syndrome and exposure to each antiretroviral. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and eighteen patients were followed for a median of 27 months, with 242 cases of metabolic syndrome (20%) at a rate of 7.5 cases per 100 patient years. Metabolic syndrome was more likely to develop in patients exposed to stavudine, but was less likely to develop in those exposed to atazanavir. The estimate for exposure to atazanavir increased from hazard ratio of 0.06 per 6 months' use in the conventional model to 0.37 in the hierarchical model (or from 0.57 to 0.81 when using spline-based covariate adjustment). CONCLUSION: These results are consistent with trials that show the disadvantage of stavudine and advantage of atazanavir relative to other drugs in their respective classes. The hierarchical model gave more plausible results than the equivalent conventional model.

Survival of bonded lingual retainers with chemical or photo polymerization over a 2-year period: a single-center, randomized controlled clinical trial

INTRODUCTION The objective of this trial was to compare the survival rates of mandibular lingual retainers bonded with either chemically cured or light-cured adhesive after orthodontic treatment. METHODS Patients having undergone orthodontic treatment at a private orthodontic office were randomly allocated to fixed retainers placed with chemically cured composite or light-cured composite. Eligibility criteria included no active caries, restorations, or fractures on the mandibular anterior teeth, and adequate oral hygiene. The main outcome was any type of first-time lingual retainer breakage; pattern of failure (adapted adhesive remnant index scores) was a secondary outcome. Randomization was accomplished with random permuted blocks of 20 patients with allocation concealed in sequentially numbered, opaque, sealed envelopes. Blinding was applicable for outcome assessment only. Patients were reviewed at 1, 3, and 6 months and then every 6 months after placement of the retainer until completion of the study. Data were analyzed using survival analysis including Cox regression; sensitivity analysis was carried out after data imputation for subjects lost to follow-up. RESULTS Two hundred twenty patients (median age, 16 years; interquartile range, 2; range, 12-47 years) were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to either chemical or light curing. Baseline characteristics were similar between groups, the median follow-up period was 2.19 years (range, 0.003-3.64 years), and 16 patients were lost to follow-up. At a minimum follow-up of 2 years, 47 of 110 (42.7%) and 55 of 110 (50.0%) retainers had some type of failure with chemically cured and light-cured adhesive, respectively (log-rank test, P = 0.35). Data were analyzed on an intention-to-treat basis, and the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.15 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88-1.70; P = 0.47). There was weak evidence that age is a significant predictor for lingual retainer failures (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93-1.00; P = 0.08). Adhesive remnant index scoring was possible for only 66 of the 102 (64.7%) failures and did not differ between composites (Fisher exact test, P = 0.16). No serious harm was observed other than gingivitis associated with plaque accumulation. CONCLUSIONS The results of this study indicated no evidence that survival of mandibular lingual retainers differs between chemically and light-cured adhesives. The overall failure rate was 46.4%; however, this included any type of failure, which may have exaggerated the overall failure rate.

Genetic variation in genes for the xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes CYP1A1, EPHX1, GSTM1, GSTT1, and GSTP1 and susceptibility to colorectal cancer in Lynch syndrome.

Individuals with Lynch syndrome are predisposed to cancer due to an inherited DNA mismatch repair gene mutation. However, there is significant variability observed in disease expression likely due to the influence of other environmental, lifestyle, or genetic factors. Polymorphisms in genes encoding xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes may modify cancer risk by influencing the metabolism and clearance of potential carcinogens from the body. In this retrospective analysis, we examined key candidate gene polymorphisms in CYP1A1, EPHX1, GSTT1, GSTM1, and GSTP1 as modifiers of age at onset of colorectal cancer among 257 individuals with Lynch syndrome. We found that subjects heterozygous for CYP1A1 I462V (c.1384A>G) developed colorectal cancer 4 years earlier than those with the homozygous wild-type genotype (median ages, 39 and 43 years, respectively; log-rank test P = 0.018). Furthermore, being heterozygous for the CYP1A1 polymorphisms, I462V and Msp1 (g.6235T>C), was associated with an increased risk for developing colorectal cancer [adjusted hazard ratio for AG relative to AA, 1.78; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-2.74; P = 0.008; hazard ratio for TC relative to TT, 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.22; P = 0.02]. Because homozygous variants for both CYP1A1 polymorphisms were rare, risk estimates were imprecise. None of the other gene polymorphisms examined were associated with an earlier onset age for colorectal cancer. Our results suggest that the I462V and Msp1 polymorphisms in CYP1A1 may be an additional susceptibility factor for disease expression in Lynch syndrome because they modify the age of colorectal cancer onset by up to 4 years.

Long-term survival after multidisciplinary management of resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

INTRODUCTION: Actual 5-year survival rates of 10-18% have been reported for patients with resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PC), but the use of multimodality therapy was uncommon in these series. We evaluated long-term survival and patterns of recurrence in patients treated for PC with contemporary staging and multimodality therapy. METHODS: We analyzed 329 consecutive patients with PC evaluated between 1990 and 2002 who underwent resection. Each received a multidisciplinary evaluation and a standard operative approach. Pre- or postoperative chemotherapy and/or chemoradiation were routine. Surgical specimens of 5-year survivors were re-reviewed. A multivariate model of factors associated with long-term survival was constructed. RESULTS: Patients underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (n = 302; 92%), distal (n = 20; 6%), or total pancreatectomy (n = 7; 2%). A total of 108 patients (33%) underwent vascular reconstruction, 301 patients (91%) received neoadjuvant or adjuvant therapy, 157 specimens (48%) were node positive, and margins were microscopically positive in 52 patients (16%). Median overall survival and disease-specific survival was 23.9 and 26.5 months. Eighty-eight patients (27%) survived a minimum of 5 years and had a median overall survival of 11 years. Of these, 21 (24%) experienced recurrence, 7 (8%) after 5 years. Late recurrences occurred most frequently in the lungs, the latest at 6.7 years. Multivariate analysis identified disease-negative lymph nodes (P = .02) and no prior attempt at resection (P = 0.01) as associated with 5-year survival. CONCLUSIONS: Our 27% actual 5-year survival rate for patients with resected PC is superior to that previously reported, and it is influenced by our emphasis on detailed staging and patient selection, a standardized operative approach, and routine use of multimodality therapy.

Hepatocellular carcinoma survival in uninsured and underinsured patients.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing. The purpose of this study is to establish baseline survival in a medically-underserved population and to evaluate the effect of HCV seropositivity on our patient population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We reviewed clinicopathologic parameters from a prospective tumor registry and medical records from the Harris County Hospital District (HCHD). Outcomes were compared using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank tests. RESULTS: A total of 298 HCC patients were identified. The median survival for the entire cohort was 3.4 mo. There was no difference in survival between the HCV seropositive and the HCV seronegative groups (3.6 mo versus 2.6 mo, P = 0.7). Patients with a survival <1 mo had a significant increase in>αfetoprotein (AFP), international normalized ratio (INR), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and total bilirubin and decrease in albumin compared with patients with a survival ≥ 1 mo. CONCLUSIONS: Survival for HCC patients in the HCHD is extremely poor compared with an anticipated median survival of 7 mo reported in other studies. HCV seropositive patients have no survival advantage over HCV seronegative patients. Poorer liver function at diagnosis appears to be related to shorter survival. Further analysis into variables contributing to decreased survival is needed.

Intensive care for extreme prematurity--moving beyond gestational age.

BACKGROUND: Decisions regarding whether to administer intensive care to extremely premature infants are often based on gestational age alone. However, other factors also affect the prognosis for these patients. METHODS: We prospectively studied a cohort of 4446 infants born at 22 to 25 weeks' gestation (determined on the basis of the best obstetrical estimate) in the Neonatal Research Network of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development to relate risk factors assessable at or before birth to the likelihood of survival, survival without profound neurodevelopmental impairment, and survival without neurodevelopmental impairment at a corrected age of 18 to 22 months. RESULTS: Among study infants, 3702 (83%) received intensive care in the form of mechanical ventilation. Among the 4192 study infants (94%) for whom outcomes were determined at 18 to 22 months, 49% died, 61% died or had profound impairment, and 73% died or had impairment. In multivariable analyses of infants who received intensive care, exposure to antenatal corticosteroids, female sex, singleton birth, and higher birth weight (per each 100-g increment) were each associated with reductions in the risk of death and the risk of death or profound or any neurodevelopmental impairment; these reductions were similar to those associated with a 1-week increase in gestational age. At the same estimated likelihood of a favorable outcome, girls were less likely than boys to receive intensive care. The outcomes for infants who underwent ventilation were better predicted with the use of the above factors than with use of gestational age alone. CONCLUSIONS: The likelihood of a favorable outcome with intensive care can be better estimated by consideration of four factors in addition to gestational age: sex, exposure or nonexposure to antenatal corticosteroids, whether single or multiple birth, and birth weight. (ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00063063 [ClinicalTrials.gov] and NCT00009633 [ClinicalTrials.gov].).

BAYESIAN PHASE I DOSE FINDING IN CANCER TRIALS

This dissertation explores phase I dose-finding designs in cancer trials from three perspectives: the alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules, a design based on a time-to-dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) model, and a design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model. We list alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules and perform a simulation study for the intra-rule and inter-rule comparisons based on two statistical models to identify the most appropriate rule under certain scenarios. We provide evidence that all the Bayesian rules outperform the traditional ``3+3'' design in the allocation of patients and selection of the maximum tolerated dose. The design based on a time-to-DLT model uses patients' DLT information over multiple treatment cycles in estimating the probability of DLT at the end of treatment cycle 1. Dose-escalation decisions are made whenever a cycle-1 DLT occurs, or two months after the previous check point. Compared to the design based on a logistic regression model, the new design shows more safety benefits for trials in which more late-onset toxicities are expected. As a trade-off, the new design requires more patients on average. The design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model has three important attributes: (1) Toxicities are categorized over a distribution of severity levels, (2) Early toxicity may inform dose escalation, and (3) No suspension is required between accrual cohorts. The proposed model accounts for the difference in the importance of the toxicity severity levels and for transitions between toxicity levels. We compare the operating characteristics of the proposed design with those from a similar design based on a fully-evaluated model that directly models the maximum observed toxicity level within the patients' entire assessment window. We describe settings in which, under comparable power, the proposed design shortens the trial. The proposed design offers more benefit compared to the alternative design as patient accrual becomes slower.