Improved simulation of fire–vegetation interactions in the Land surface Processes and eXchanges dynamic global vegetation model (LPX-Mv1)

The Land surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model is a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model that performs well globally but has problems representing fire regimes and vegetative mix in savannas. Here we focus on improving the fire module. To improve the representation of ignitions, we introduced a reatment of lightning that allows the fraction of ground strikes to vary spatially and seasonally, realistically partitions strike distribution between wet and dry days, and varies the number of dry days with strikes. Fuel availability and moisture content were improved by implementing decomposition rates specific to individual plant functional types and litter classes, and litter drying rates driven by atmospheric water content. To improve water extraction by grasses, we use realistic plant-specific treatments of deep roots. To improve fire responses, we introduced adaptive bark thickness and post-fire resprouting for tropical and temperate broadleaf trees. All improvements are based on extensive analyses of relevant observational data sets. We test model performance for Australia, first evaluating parameterisations separately and then measuring overall behaviour against standard benchmarks. Changes to the lightning parameterisation produce a more realistic simulation of fires in southeastern and central Australia. Implementation of PFT-specific decomposition rates enhances performance in central Australia. Changes in fuel drying improve fire in northern Australia, while changes in rooting depth produce a more realistic simulation of fuel availability and structure in central and northern Australia. The introduction of adaptive bark thickness and resprouting produces more realistic fire regimes in Australian savannas. We also show that the model simulates biomass recovery rates consistent with observations from several different regions of the world characterised by resprouting vegetation. The new model (LPX-Mv1) produces an improved simulation of observed vegetation composition and mean annual burnt area, by 33 and 18% respectively compared to LPX.

Pre-Columbian land use in the ring-ditch region of the Bolivian Amazon

The nature and extent of pre-Columbian (pre-1492 AD) human impact in Amazonia is a contentious issue. The Bolivian Amazon has yielded some of the most impressive evidence for large and complex pre-Columbian societies in the Amazon basin, yet there remains relatively little data concerning the land use of these societies over time. Palaeoecology, when integrated with archaeological data, has the potential to fill these gaps in our knowledge. We present a 6,000-year record of anthropogenic burning, agriculture and vegetation change, from an oxbow lake located adjacent to a pre-Columbian ring-ditch in north-east Bolivia (13°15’44” S, 63°42’37” W). Human occupation around the lake site is inferred from pollen and phytoliths of maize (Zea mays L.) and macroscopic charcoal evidence of anthropogenic burning. First occupation around the lake was radiocarbon dated to ~2500 years BP. The persistence of maize in the record from ~1850 BP suggests that it was an important crop grown in the ringditch region in pre-Columbian times, and abundant macroscopic charcoal suggests that pre-Columbian land management entailed more extensive burning of the landscape than the slash-and-burn agriculture practised around the site today. The site was occupied continuously until near-modern times, although there is evidence for a decline in agricultural intensity or change in land use strategy, and possible population decline, from ~600-500 BP. The long and continuous occupation, which predates the establishment of rainforest in the region, suggests that pre-Columbian land use may have had a significant influence on ecosystem development at this site over the last ~2000 years.

Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface

Methods to explicitly represent uncertainties in weather and climate models have been developed and refined over the past decade, and have reduced biases and improved forecast skill when implemented in the atmospheric component of models. These methods have not yet been applied to the land surface component of models. Since the land surface is strongly coupled to the atmospheric state at certain times and in certain places (such as the European summer of 2003), improvements in the representation of land surface uncertainty may potentially lead to improvements in atmospheric forecasts for such events. Here we analyse seasonal retrospective forecasts for 1981–2012 performed with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ (ECMWF) coupled ensemble forecast model. We consider two methods of incorporating uncertainty into the land surface model (H-TESSEL): stochastic perturbation of tendencies, and static perturbation of key soil parameters. We find that the perturbed parameter approach considerably improves the forecast of extreme air temperature for summer 2003, through better representation of negative soil moisture anomalies and upward sensible heat flux. Averaged across all the reforecasts the perturbed parameter experiment shows relatively little impact on the mean bias, suggesting perturbations of at least this magnitude can be applied to the land surface without any degradation of model climate. There is also little impact on skill averaged across all reforecasts and some evidence of overdispersion for soil moisture. The stochastic tendency experiments show a large overdispersion for the soil temperature fields, indicating that the perturbation here is too strong. There is also some indication that the forecast of the 2003 warm event is improved for the stochastic experiments, however the improvement is not as large as observed for the perturbed parameter experiment.

Unpacking the mechanism by which psychological ownership manifests at the level of the individual: a dynamic model of identity and self

Increasing prominence of the psychological ownership (PO) construct in management studies raises questions about how PO manifests at the level of the individual. In this article, we unpack the mechanism by which individuals use PO to express aspects of their identity and explore how PO manifestations can display congruence as well as incongruence between layers of self. As a conceptual foundation, we develop a dynamic model of individual identity that differentiates between four layers of self, namely, the “core self,” “learned self,” “lived self,” and “perceived self.” We then bring identity and PO literatures together to suggest a framework of PO manifestation and expression viewed through the lens of the four presented layers of self. In exploring our framework, we develop a number of propositions that lay the foundation for future empirical and conceptual work and discuss implications for theory and practice.

Investigation of the impact of anthropogenic heat flux within an urban land surface model and PILPS-urban

Results from the first international urban model comparison experiment (PILPS-Urban) suggested that models which neglected the anthropogenic heat flux within the surface energy balance performed at least as well as models that include the source term, but this could not be explained. The analyses undertaken show that the results from PILPS-Urban were masked by the signal from including vegetation, which was identified in PILPS-Urban as being important. Including the anthropogenic heat flux does give improved performance, but the benefit is small for the site studied given the relatively small magnitude of this flux relative to other terms in the surface energy balance. However, there is no further benefit from including temporal variations in the flux at this site. The importance is expected to increase at sites with a larger anthropogenic heat flux and greater temporal variations.

Bayesian analysis of uncertainty in the GlobCover 2009 land cover product at climate model grid scale

Land cover data derived from satellites are commonly used to prescribe inputs to models of the land surface. Since such data inevitably contains errors, quantifying how uncertainties in the data affect a model’s output is important. To do so, a spatial distribution of possible land cover values is required to propagate through the model’s simulation. However, at large scales, such as those required for climate models, such spatial modelling can be difficult. Also, computer models often require land cover proportions at sites larger than the original map scale as inputs, and it is the uncertainty in these proportions that this article discusses. This paper describes a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that generates realisations of land cover proportions from the posterior distribution as implied by a Bayesian analysis that combines spatial information in the land cover map and its associated confusion matrix. The technique is computationally simple and has been applied previously to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales. This article demonstrates the ability of the technique to scale up to large (global) satellite derived land cover maps and reports its application to the GlobCover 2009 data product. The results show that, in general, the GlobCover data possesses only small biases, with the largest belonging to non–vegetated surfaces. In vegetated surfaces, the most prominent area of uncertainty is Southern Africa, which represents a complex heterogeneous landscape. It is also clear from this study that greater resources need to be devoted to the construction of comprehensive confusion matrices.

The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies (e.g. Joos et al., 2004; Kaplan et al., 2011; Mitchell et al., 2013) have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) one in which potential natural vegetation was simulated by Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (TRIFFID) but without land use changes and (ii) one where the anthropogenic land use model Kaplan and Krumhardt 2010 (KK10; Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) was used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations were run at 1000-year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results from our model simulations indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and south-east Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June–July–August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. The global annual mean temperature anomalies found in our single model simulations were −0.22 at 1850 CE, −0.11 at 2 ka BP, and −0.03 °C at 7 ka BP. Regionally, the largest temperature changes were in Europe with anomalies of −0.83 at 1850 CE, −0.58 at 2 ka BP, and −0.24 °C at 7 ka BP. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies, and tropospheric stationary wave train disturbances in the mid- to high latitudes led to remote teleconnections.

Study of the relationship between roads, relief, land use, and natural vegetation in the Ibiuna Plateau - SP, focusing on landscape ecology

Roads facilitate access by deforestation agents, being relevant in studies approaching conservationist matters in rainforests. It is important to understand the relationship between road distribution, relief, land use, and forest coverage in order to evaluate where forests are more vulnerable. This study aimed at: 1) understanding the relationship between relief and density and road connectivity in three moments in time; and 2) evaluating the relationship between distance from roads and forest coverage, farmlands and rural and urban facilities in a fragmented Atlantic Forest landscape in three moments in time. Maps of roads, altitude, and land use and coverage were used. Chi-square tests showed that: 1) density and road connectivity did not present significant relationship with the relief; and 2) forest areas occupy areas distant from the roads, while farmlands and rural and urban facilities occupy areas nearer the roads. Roads and land use, regardless of relief, influence forest coverage distribution. Thus, we suggest that roads are taken into account in conservationist strategies and environmental planning.

Coup Coup Land : A Comparative Study of the Coups of Fiji

A thesis presented on the political history of Fiji from cession to Britain in 1874 compares and analyses the country’s four political coups. A military coup occurred in 1987 by Lt. Col Sitiveni Rabuka. Six months later he staged a self-coup. In 2000 George Speight staged an armed civilian coup or putsch, and in 2006 Commodore Frank Bainimarama, head of Fiji’s military forces, overthrew the government of Laisenia Qarase. This paper is an internal comparison of the four coups of which the aim is to examine why coups occur in Fiji. The conclusion is that the level of influence of the country’s traditional paramount chiefs is a strong causal factor in events leading to the political overthrows. Issues such as ethnicity, constitutionalism, democracy, traditionalism, and modernity make the study of the Fiji coups complex. All of the major actors involved have been present or have been somehow linked to each coup. Questions of leadership arise as do issues regarding pluralism and multiculturalism. These issues are discussed in this paper. The end result is that if the question of traditional leadership is not addressed within a democratic framework then Fiji will continue to have coups.

The Impact of Land Use Patterns and Watershed Characteristics on China Lake, Kennebec County, Maine

China Lake is located in Kennebec County, Maine. Since 1983 the lake has suffered from yearly algal blooms as a result of the addition of excess nutrients. The nutrient load was amplified by erosion within the watershed. Erosion varies widely depending on a number of factors, including the slope of the land, the type of soil, and the way the land is being used. Certain land use types have a high potential to add nutrients to the environment, while others may help absorb excess nutrients and prevent erosion and runoff into the lake. A comprehensive examination of the China Lake watershed was completed using GIS to calculate the erosion potential for the entire area, taking into account past and present land use patterns. This information will help the towns around the lake to make informed decisions about future development and land management.

Stranger in a Strange Land: The struggle for cultural and personal identity in Haruki Murakami's Hard-Boiled Wonderland and the End of the World

In order to explicate Murakami's version of the official culture, I have analyzed the novel with the works of several different theorists. Primarily, I drew my own understanding of the official culture from Raymond Williams's examination of culture in Marxism and Literature. His terminology became helpful in writing about the operation of the System and the Town, though it did not define that operation precisely. Williams's work also introduced me to the theory behind the official culture's manipulation and exclusion of historical aspects in order to create their "official" version of history, from which the official culture draws its identity. For further analysis of the treatment of history, I turned to Friedrich Nietzsche's On the Advantage and Disadvantage of History for Life. Though it examines the official culture's manipulation of history in a much more in-depth manner, it seems to have influenced Murakami's treatment of individual memories and cultural histories. For instance, the herd ofunicoms in the End of the World resembles Nietzsche's description of the ''unhistorical herd," or has the potential to resemble it. With these theories I was able to access the mechanisms of cultural control that Murakami depicts in the form of the System and the Town, and from there I was able to develop a model for how the narrator struggles to subvert that control. Both sides of that struggle are depicted and re-imagined many times throughout Hard-Boiled Wonderland and the End of the World.

Property rights as a public policy tool: an empirical analysis of the social and economic effects

Secure property rights are considered a key determinant of economic development. However, the evaluation of the causal effects of land titling is a difficult task. The Brazilian government through a program called "Papel Passado" has issued titles, since 2004, to over 85,000 families and has the goal to reach 750,000. Furthermore, another topic in Public Policy that is crucial to developing economies is income generation and child labor force participation. Particularly, in Brazil, about 5.4 million children and teenagers between 5 and 17 years old are still working. This thesis examines the direct impact of securing a property title on income and child labor force participation. In order to isolate the causal role of ownership security, this study uses a comparison between two close and very similar communities in the City of Osasco case (a town with 650,000 people in the São Paulo metropolitan area). One of them, Jardim Canaã, was fortunated to receive the titles in 2007, the other, Jardim DR, given fiscal constraints, only will be part of the program schedule in 2012, and for that reason became the control group. Also, this thesis also aims to test if there is any relationship between land title and happiness. The estimates suggest that titling results in a substantial decrease of child labor force participation, increase of income and happiness for the families that received the title compared to the others.

The effects of state ownership in the internationalization of emerging multinationals

Esta tese é um compendio de três trabalhos de pesquisa que visam analisar o efeito da participação do estado na estrutura de propriedade das Multinacionais de Países Emergentes (EMNEs). A participação do estado como acionista é um fenómeno que pode trazer novas contribuições no âmbito da governança corporativa, administração da empresa e a tomada de decisões estratégicas. Os estudos aqui inclusos permitem identificar, a partir de momentos, diferentes, até que ponto o estado, na posição de proprietário da EMNE, pode impactar a mesma. Os trabalhos vão desde os mecanismos de escolha de firmas nas quais investir ate o impacto no ritmo de internacionalização das empresas, explicando também os mecanismos que o estado usa para ganhar aceso à tomada de decisões por meio de mudanças na governança corporativa

Historical land-cover/use in different slope and riparian buffer zones in watersheds of the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)