Modelling and simulating retail management practices: a first approach

Multi-agent systems offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. We apply agent-based modeling and simulation to investigate a set of problems in a retail context. Specifically, we are working to understand the relationship between people management practices on the shop-floor and retail performance. Despite the fact we are working within a relatively novel and complex domain, it is clear that using an agent-based approach offers great potential for improving organizational capabilities in the future. Our multi-disciplinary research team has worked closely with one of the UK’s top ten retailers to collect data and build an understanding of shop-floor operations and the key actors in a department (customers, staff, and managers). Based on this case study we have built and tested our first version of a retail branch agent-based simulation model where we have focused on how we can simulate the effects of people management practices on customer satisfaction and sales. In our experiments we have looked at employee development and cashier empowerment as two examples of shop floor management practices. In this paper we describe the underlying conceptual ideas and the features of our simulation model. We present a selection of experiments we have conducted in order to validate our simulation model and to show its potential for answering “what-if” questions in a retail context. We also introduce a novel performance measure which we have created to quantify customers’ satisfaction with service, based on their individual shopping experiences.

Modelling and predictive control techniques for building heating systems

Model predictive control (MPC) has often been referred to in literature as a potential method for more efficient control of building heating systems. Though a significant performance improvement can be achieved with an MPC strategy, the complexity introduced to the commissioning of the system is often prohibitive. Models are required which can capture the thermodynamic properties of the building with sufficient accuracy for meaningful predictions to be made. Furthermore, a large number of tuning weights may need to be determined to achieve a desired performance. For MPC to become a practicable alternative, these issues must be addressed. Acknowledging the impact of the external environment as well as the interaction of occupants on the thermal behaviour of the building, in this work, techniques have been developed for deriving building models from data in which large, unmeasured disturbances are present. A spatio-temporal filtering process was introduced to determine estimates of the disturbances from measured data, which were then incorporated with metaheuristic search techniques to derive high-order simulation models, capable of replicating the thermal dynamics of a building. While a high-order simulation model allowed for control strategies to be analysed and compared, low-order models were required for use within the MPC strategy itself. The disturbance estimation techniques were adapted for use with system-identification methods to derive such models. MPC formulations were then derived to enable a more straightforward commissioning process and implemented in a validated simulation platform. A prioritised-objective strategy was developed which allowed for the tuning parameters typically associated with an MPC cost function to be omitted from the formulation by separation of the conflicting requirements of comfort satisfaction and energy reduction within a lexicographic framework. The improved ability of the formulation to be set-up and reconfigured in faulted conditions was shown.

Modelling and control of a floating oscillating water column

A novel numerical model of a Bent Backwards Duct Buoy (BBDB) Oscillating Water Column (OWC) Wave Energy Converter was created based on existing isolated numerical models of the different energy conversion systems utilised by an OWC. The novel aspect of this numerical model is that it incorporates the interdependencies of the different power conversion systems rather than modelling each system individually. This was achieved by accounting for the dynamic aerodynamic damping caused by the changing turbine rotational velocity by recalculating the turbine damping for each simulation sample and applying it via a feedback loop. The accuracy of the model was validated using experimental data collected during the Components for Ocean Renewable Energy Systems (CORES) EU FP-7 project that was tested in Galway Bay, Ireland. During the verification process, it was discovered that the model could also be applied as a valuable tool when troubleshooting device performance. A new turbine was developed and added to a full scale model after being investigated using Computational Fluid Dynamics. The energy storage capacity of the impulse turbine was investigated by modelling the turbine with both high and low inertia and applying three turbine control theories to the turbine using the full scale model. A single Maximum Power Point Tracking algorithm was applied to the low-inertia turbine, while both a fixed and dynamic control algorithm was applied to the high-inertia turbine. These results suggest that the highinertia turbine could be used as a flywheel energy storage device that could help minimize output power variation despite the low operating speed of the impulse turbine. This research identified the importance of applying dynamic turbine damping to a BBDB OWC numerical model, revealed additional value of the model as a device troubleshooting tool, and found that an impulse turbine could be applied as an energy storage system.

Design, modelling and preliminary characterisation of microneedle-based electrodes for tissue electroporation in vivo

We analysed the use of microneedle-based electrodes to enhance electroporation of mouse testis with DNA vectors for production of transgenic mice. Different microneedle formats were developed and tested, and we ultimately used electrodes based on arrays of 500 μm tall microneedles. In a series of experiments involving injection of a DNA vector expressing Green Fluorescent Protein (GFP) and electroporation using microneedle electrodes and a commercially available voltage supply, we compared the performance of flat and microneedle electrodes by measuring GFP expression at various timepoints after electroporation. Our main finding, supported by both experimental and simulated data, is that needles significantly enhanced electroporation of testis.

Modelling and simulations of ductile iron solidification-induced variations in mechanical behaviour on component and microstructural level

The mechanical behaviour and performance of a ductile iron component is highly dependent on the local variations in solidification conditions during the casting process. Here we show a framework which combine a previously developed closed chain of simulations for cast components with a micro-scale Finite Element Method (FEM) simulation of the behaviour and performance of the microstructure. A casting process simulation, including modelling of solidification and mechanical material characterization, provides the basis for a macro-scale FEM analysis of the component. A critical region is identified to which the micro-scale FEM simulation of a representative microstructure, generated using X-ray tomography, is applied. The mechanical behaviour of the different microstructural phases are determined using a surrogate model based optimisation routine and experimental data. It is discussed that the approach enables a link between solidification- and microstructure-models and simulations of as well component as microstructural behaviour, and can contribute with new understanding regarding the behaviour and performance of different microstructural phases and morphologies in industrial ductile iron components in service.

Modelling and PI Control of an Irrigation Canal

The main goal of this paper is to expose and validate a methodology to design efficient automatic controllers for irrigation canals, based on the Saint-Venant model. This model-based methodology enables to design controllers at the design stage (when the canal is not already built). The methodology is applied on an experimental canal located in Portugal. First the full nonlinear PDE model is calibrated, using a single steady-state experiment. The model is then linearized around a functioning point, in order to design linear PI controllers. Two classical control strategies are tested (local upstream control and distant downstream control) and compared on the canal. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the model.

Modelling and studies of the spectral response of some optoelectronic components

Solar radiation takes in today's world, an increasing importance. Different devices are used to carry out spectral and integrated measurements of solar radiation. Thus the sensors can be divided into the fallow types: Calorimetric, Thermomechanical, Thermoelectric and Photoelectric. The first three categories are based on components converting the radiation to temperature (or heat) and then into electrical quantity. On the other hand, the photoelectric sensors are based on semiconductor or optoelectronic elements that when irradiated change their impedance or generate a measurable electric signal. The response function of the sensor element depends not only on the intensity of the radiation but also on its wavelengths. The radiation sensors most widely used fit in the first categories, but thanks to the reduction in manufacturing costs and to the increased integration of electronic systems, the use of the photoelectric-type sensors became more interesting. In this work we present a study of the behavior of different optoelectronic sensor elements. It is intended to verify the static response of the elements to the incident radiation. We study the optoelectronic elements using mathematical models that best fit their response as a function of wavelength. As an input to the model, the solar radiation values are generated with a radiative transfer model. We present a modeling of the spectral response sensors of other types in order to compare the behavior of optoelectronic elements with other sensors currently in use.

Numerical modelling and structural optimization of multifunctional maritime structures aimed to protect harbours and produce energy

The main objective of this PhD thesis is to optimize a specific multifunctional maritime structure for harbour protection and energy production, named Overtopping Breakwater for Energy Conversion (OBREC), developed by the team of the University of Campania. This device is provided with a sloping plate followed by a unique reservoir, which is linked with the machine room (where the energy conversion occurs) by means of a pipe passing through the crown wall, provided with a parapet on top of it. Therefore, the potential energy of the overtopping waves, collected inside the reservoir located above the still water level, is then converted by means of low – head turbines. In order to improve the understanding of the wave – structure interactions with OBREC, several methodologies have been used and combined together: i. analysis of recent experimental campaigns on wave overtopping discharges and pressures at the crown wall on small – scale OBREC cross sections, carried out in other laboratories by the team of the University of Campania; ii. new experiments on cross sections similar to the OBREC device, planned and carried out in the hydraulic lab at the University of Bologna in the framework of this PhD work; iii. numerical modelling with a 1 – phase incompressible fluid model IH – 2VOF, developed by the University of Cantabria, and with a 2 – phase incompressible fluid model OpenFOAM, both available from the literature; iv. numerical modelling with a new 2 – phase compressible fluid model developed in the OpenFOAM environment within this PhD work; v. analysis of the data gained from the monitoring of the OBREC prototype installation.

Modelling and Optimization of Energy Management Strategies for Hybrid Vehicles

In the last decades the automotive sector has seen a technological revolution, due mainly to the more restrictive regulation, the newly introduced technologies and, as last, to the poor resources of fossil fuels remaining on Earth. Promising solution in vehicles’ propulsion are represented by alternative architectures and energy sources, for example fuel-cells and pure electric vehicles. The automotive transition to new and green vehicles is passing through the development of hybrid vehicles, that usually combine positive aspects of each technology. To fully exploit the powerful of hybrid vehicles, however, it is important to manage the powertrain’s degrees of freedom in the smartest way possible, otherwise hybridization would be worthless. To this aim, this dissertation is focused on the development of energy management strategies and predictive control functions. Such algorithms have the goal of increasing the powertrain overall efficiency and contextually increasing the driver safety. Such control algorithms have been applied to an axle-split Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle with a complex architecture that allows more than one driving modes, including the pure electric one. The different energy management strategies investigated are mainly three: the vehicle baseline heuristic controller, in the following mentioned as rule-based controller, a sub-optimal controller that can include also predictive functionalities, referred to as Equivalent Consumption Minimization Strategy, and a vehicle global optimum control technique, called Dynamic Programming, also including the high-voltage battery thermal management. During this project, different modelling approaches have been applied to the powertrain, including Hardware-in-the-loop, and diverse powertrain high-level controllers have been developed and implemented, increasing at each step their complexity. It has been proven the potential of using sophisticated powertrain control techniques, and that the gainable benefits in terms of fuel economy are largely influenced by the chose energy management strategy, even considering the powerful vehicle investigated.

Development and testing of innovative methodologies for modelling and control of normal and knocking combustion and implementation of novel rapid prototyping solutions

The thesis work deals with topics that led to the development of innovative control-oriented models and control algorithms for modern gasoline engines. Knock in boosted spark ignition engines is the widest topic discussed in this document because it remains one of the most limiting factors for maximizing combustion efficiency in this kind of engine. First chapter is thus focused on knock and a wide literature review is proposed to summarize the preliminary knowledge that even represents the background and the reference for discussed activities. Most relevant results achieved during PhD course in the field of knock modelling and control are then presented, describing every control-oriented model that led to the development of an adaptive model-based combustion control system. The complete controller has been developed in the context of the collaboration with Ferrari GT and it allowed to completely redefine the knock intensity evaluation as well as the combustion phase control. The second chapter is focused on the activity related to a prototyping Port Water Injection system that has been developed and tested on a turbocharged spark ignition engine, within the collaboration with Magneti Marelli. Such system and the effects of injected water on the combustion process were then modeled in a 1-D simulation environment (GT Power). Third chapter shows the development and validation of a control-oriented model for the real-time calculation of exhaust gas temperature that represents another important limitation to the performance increase in modern boosted engines. Indeed, modelling of exhaust gas temperature and thermocouple behavior are themes that play a key role in the optimization of combustion and catalyst efficiency.

Analysis, modelling and design of a groin as coastal protection structure at Lido di Dante, Ravenna

An analysis and a subsequent solution is here presented. This document is about a groin design able to contrast the erosion actions given by waves in Lido di Dante. Advantages will be visible also for Fiumi Uniti's inlet, in the north side of the shoreline. Beach future progression and growth will be subjected to monitoring actions in the years after groin construction. The resulting effects of the design will have a positive impact not only on the local fauna and environment, but also, a naturalistic appeal will increase making new type of tourists coming not only for recreational purposes. The design phase is focused on possible design alternatives and their features. Particular interest is given to scouring phenomena all around the groin after its construction. Groin effects will impact not only on its south side, instead they will cause an intense erosion process on the downdrift front. Here, many fishing hut would be in danger, thus a beach revetment structure is needed to avoid any future criticality. In addiction, a numerical model based on a generalized shoreline change numerical model, also known as GENESIS, has been applied to the study area in order to perform a simplistic analysis of the shoreline and its future morphology. Critical zones are visible in proximity of the Fiumi Uniti's river inlet, where currents from the sea and the river itself start the erosion process that is affecting Lido di Dante since mid '80s, or even before. The model is affected by several assumptions that make results not to be interpreted as a real future trend of the shore. Instead the model allows the user to have a more clear view about critical processes induced by monochromatic inputed waves. In conclusion, the thesis introduce a wide analysis on a complex erosion process that is affecting many shoreline nowadays. A groin design is seen as a hard solution it is considered to be the only means able to decrease the rate of erosion.

Modelling and Uncertainty Quantification application to SA simulation codes in advanced SMR

In the framework of a global transition to a low-carbon energy mix, the interest in advanced nuclear Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) has been growing at the international level. Due to the high level of maturity reached by Severe Accident Codes for currently operating rectors, their applicability to advanced SMRs is starting to be studied. Within the present work of thesis and in the framework of a collaboration between ENEA, UNIBO and IRSN, an ASTEC code model of a generic IRIS reactor has been developed. The simulation of a DBA sequence involving the operation of all the passive safety systems of the generic IRIS has been carried out to investigate the code model capability in the prediction of the thermal-hydraulics characterizing an integral SMR adopting a passive mitigation strategy. The following simulation of 4 BDBAs sequences explores the applicability of Severe Accident Codes to advance SMRs in beyond-design and core-degradation conditions. The uncertainty affecting a code simulation can be estimated by using the method of Input Uncertainty Propagation, whose application has been realized through the RAVEN-ASTEC coupling and implementation on an HPC platform. This probabilistic methodology has been employed in a study of the uncertainty affecting the passive safety system operation in the DBA simulation of ASTEC, providing a further characterization of the thermal-hydraulics of this sequence. The application of the Uncertainty Quantification method to early core-melt phenomena has been investigated in the framework of a BEPU analysis of the ASTEC simulation of the QUENCH test-6 experiment. A possible solution to the encountered challenges has been proposed through the application of a Limit Surface search algorithm.

Urban air quality: new high-resolution modeling approaches and forecasting tools for citizens

Air pollution is one of the greatest health risks in the world. At the same time, the strong correlation with climate change, as well as with Urban Heat Island and Heat Waves, make more intense the effects of all these phenomena. A good air quality and high levels of thermal comfort are the big goals to be reached in urban areas in coming years. Air quality forecast help decision makers to improve air quality and public health strategies, mitigating the occurrence of acute air pollution episodes. Air quality forecasting approaches combine an ensemble of models to provide forecasts from global to regional air pollution and downscaling for selected countries and regions. The development of models dedicated to urban air quality issues requires a good set of data regarding the urban morphology and building material characteristics. Only few examples of air quality forecast system at urban scale exist in the literature and often they are limited to selected cities. This thesis develops by setting up a methodology for the development of a forecasting tool. The forecasting tool can be adapted to all cities and uses a new parametrization for vegetated areas. The parametrization method, based on aerodynamic parameters, produce the urban spatially varying roughness. At the core of the forecasting tool there is a dispersion model (urban scale) used in forecasting mode, and the meteorological and background concentration forecasts provided by two regional numerical weather forecasting models. The tool produces the 1-day spatial forecast of NO2, PM10, O3 concentration, the air temperature, the air humidity and BLQ-Air index values. The tool is automatized to run every day, the maps produced are displayed on the e-Globus platform, updated every day. The results obtained indicate that the forecasting output were in good agreement with the observed measurements.

Propagation modelling and resource allocation in mobile radio communications

Over the past years, ray tracing (RT) models popularity has been increasing. From the nineties, RT has been used for field prediction in environment such as indoor and urban environments. Nevertheless, with the advent of new technologies, the channel model has become decidedly more dynamic and to perform RT simulations at each discrete time instant become computationally expensive. In this thesis, a new dynamic ray tracing (DRT) approach is presented in which from a single ray tracing simulation at an initial time t0, through analytical formulas we are able to track the motion of the interaction points. The benefits that this approach bring are that Doppler frequencies and channel prediction can be derived at every time instant, without recurring to multiple RT runs and therefore shortening the computation time. DRT performance was studied on two case studies and the results shows the accuracy and the computational gain that derives from this approach. Another issue that has been addressed in this thesis is the licensed band exhaustion of some frequency bands. To deal with this problem, a novel unselfish spectrum leasing scheme in cognitive radio networks (CRNs) is proposed that offers an energy-efficient solution minimizing the environmental impact of the network. In addition, a network management architecture is introduced and resource allocation is proposed as a constrained sum energy efficiency maximization problem. System simulations demonstrate an increment in the energy efficiency of the primary users’ network compared with previously proposed algorithms.

Modelling and classification with quantile-based distributions

In this work, we explore and demonstrate the potential for modeling and classification using quantile-based distributions, which are random variables defined by their quantile function. In the first part we formalize a least squares estimation framework for the class of linear quantile functions, leading to unbiased and asymptotically normal estimators. Among the distributions with a linear quantile function, we focus on the flattened generalized logistic distribution (fgld), which offers a wide range of distributional shapes. A novel naïve-Bayes classifier is proposed that utilizes the fgld estimated via least squares, and through simulations and applications, we demonstrate its competitiveness against state-of-the-art alternatives. In the second part we consider the Bayesian estimation of quantile-based distributions. We introduce a factor model with independent latent variables, which are distributed according to the fgld. Similar to the independent factor analysis model, this approach accommodates flexible factor distributions while using fewer parameters. The model is presented within a Bayesian framework, an MCMC algorithm for its estimation is developed, and its effectiveness is illustrated with data coming from the European Social Survey. The third part focuses on depth functions, which extend the concept of quantiles to multivariate data by imposing a center-outward ordering in the multivariate space. We investigate the recently introduced integrated rank-weighted (IRW) depth function, which is based on the distribution of random spherical projections of the multivariate data. This depth function proves to be computationally efficient and to increase its flexibility we propose different methods to explicitly model the projected univariate distributions. Its usefulness is shown in classification tasks: the maximum depth classifier based on the IRW depth is proven to be asymptotically optimal under certain conditions, and classifiers based on the IRW depth are shown to perform well in simulated and real data experiments.