Spatio-temporal Change in Crowned (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s Sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) Habitat in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex, Madagascar.

The crowned sifaka (Propithecus coronatus) and Decken’s sifaka (Propithecus deckenii) are Endangered lemurs endemic to west and central Madagascar. Both have suffered habitat loss and fragmentation throughout their ranges. The goal
of this study, conducted in the Mahavavy-Kinkony Wetland Complex (MKWC) in northwestern Madagascar, was to assess the effects of historical change in the species’ habitats, and to model the potential impact of further land-use change on their habitats. The IDRISI Andes Geographical Information System and image-processing software was used for satellite-image classifiation, and the Land Change Modeler was used to compare the natural habitat of the species from 1973 to 2005, and to predict available habitat for 2050. We analyzed two forests in the MKWC occupied by P. coronatus (Antsilaiza and Anjohibe), and three forests occupied by P. deckenii (Tsiombikibo, Marofandroboka and Andohaomby). The two forests occupied by P. coronatus contracted during the period 1949–1973, but then expanded to exceed their 1949 area by 28% in 2005. However, the land change model predicted that they will contract again to match their 1949 area by 2050, and will again lose their corridor connection, meaning that the conservation gains for this species in the complex are at risk of being reversed. The three forests occupied by P. deckenii have declined in area steadily since 1949, losing 20% of their original area by 2005, and are predicted to lose a further 15% of their original area by 2050. Both species are therefore at risk of becoming even more threatened if land-use change continues within the complex. Improved conservation of the remaining forest is recommended to avoid further loss, as well as ecological restoration and reforestation to promote connectivity between the forests. A new strategy for controlling agriculture and forest use is required in order to avoid further destruction of the forest.

A techno-economic evaluation of changing from conventional vehicles to range extended electric vehicles

Transportation accounts for 22% of greenhouse gas emissions in the UK, and increases to 25% in Northern Ireland. Surface transport carbon dioxide emissions, consisting of road and rail, are dominated by cars. Demand for mobility is rising rapidly and vehicle numbers are expected to more than double by 2050. Car manufacturers are working towards reducing their carbon footprint through improving fuel efficiency and controlling exhaust emissions. Fuel efficiency is now a key consideration of consumers purchasing a new vehicle. While measures have been taken to help to reduce pollutants, in the future, alternative technologies will have to be used in the transportation industry to achieve sustainability. There are currently many alternatives to the market leader, the internal combustion engine. These alternatives include hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and electric vehicles, a term which is widely used to cover battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and extended-range electric vehicles. This study draws direct comparisons measuring the differing performance in terms of fuel consumption, carbon emissions and range of a typical family saloon car using different fuel types. These comparisons will then be analysed to see what effect switching from a conventionally fuelled vehicle to a range extended electric vehicle would have not only on the end user, but also the UK government.

Managing Future offshore wind power variability in a European Supergrid

The future European power system will have a hierarchical structure created by layers of system control from a Supergrid via regional high-voltage transmission through to medium and low-voltage distribution. Each level will have generation sources such as large-scale offshore wind, wave, solar thermal, nuclear directly connected to this Supergrid and high levels of embedded generation, connected to the medium-voltage distribution system. It is expected that the fuel portfolio will be dominated by offshore wind in Northern Europe and PV in Southern Europe. The strategies required to manage the coordination of supply-side variability with demand-side variability will include large scale interconnection, demand side management, load aggregation and storage in the context of the Supergrid combined with the Smart Grid. The design challenge associated with this will not only include control topology, data acquisition, analysis and communications technologies, but also the selection of fuel portfolio at a macro level. This paper quantifies the amount of demand side management, storage and so-called 'back-up generation' needed to support an 80% renewable energy portfolio in Europe by 2050. © 2013 IEEE.

Managing the variability of supply in the European power system with high wind energy penetration

The power system of the future will have a hierarchical structure created by layers of system control from via regional high-voltage transmission through to medium and low-voltage distribution. Each level will have generation sources such as large-scale offshore wind, wave, solar thermal, nuclear directly connected to this Supergrid and high levels of embedded generation, connected to the medium-voltage distribution system. It is expected that the fuel portfolio will be dominated by offshore wind in Northern Europe and PV in Southern Europe. The strategies required to manage the coordination of supply-side variability with demand-side variability will include large scale interconnection, demand side management, load aggregation and storage in the concept of the Supergrid combined with the Smart Grid. The design challenge associated with this will not only include control topology, data acquisition, analysis and communications technologies, but also the selection of fuel portfolio at a macro level. This paper quantifies the amount of demand side management, storage and so-called ‘back-up generation’ needed to support an 80% renewable energy portfolio in Europe by 2050.

Planning Urban Food Production into Today’s Cities

If cities are to become more sustainable and resilient to change it is likely that they will have to engage with food at increasingly localised levels, in order to reduce their dependency on global systems. With 87 percent of people in developed regions estimated to be living in cities by 2050 it can be assumed that the majority of this localised production will occur in and around cities. As part of a 12 month engagement, Queen’s University Belfast designed and implemented an elevated aquaponic food system spanning the top internal floor and exterior roof space of a disused mill in Manchester, England. The experimental aquaponic system was developed to explore the possibilities and difficulties associated with integrating food production with existing buildings. This paper utilises empirical research regarding crop growth from the elevated aquaponic system and extrapolates the findings across a whole city. The resulting research enables the agricultural productive capacity of today’s cities to be estimated and a framework of implementation to be proposed.

Planning Urban Food Production into Today's Cities

If cities are to become more sustainable and resilient to change it is likely that they will have to engage with food at increasingly localised levels, in order to reduce their dependancy on global systems. With 87 percent of developed regions estimated to be living in cities by 2050 it can be assumed that the majority of this localised production will occur in and around cities.
As part of a 12 month engagement, Queen’s University Belfast designed and implemented an elevated aquaponic food system spanning the top floor and exterior roof space of a disused mill in Manchester, England. The experimental aquaponic system was developed to explore the possibilities and difficulties associated with containing fish tanks, filtration units, vertical growing systems and roof top growing systems within and upon existing buildings, including the structural considerations needed when undertaking such transformations. Although capable of producing 4000 crops at any one time, the elevated aquaponic system utilised space within the existing building, which could otherwise be used as lettable area, and also located some crop growth within the building where light levels are reduced.
The following paper takes the research collected from the elevated aquaponic system and extrapolates the findings across a whole city. The resulting research enables the agricultural productive capacity of todays cities to be determined and a frame work of implementation to be developed for city wide food production. The research focuses specifically on facade and roof based systems, thus elevating the need to utilise lettable area within cities in addition to locating crops where light levels are highest.

Supernovae and radio transients in M82

We present optical and near-infrared (NIR) photometry and NIR spectroscopy of SN 2004am, the only optically detected supernova (SN) in M82. These demonstrate that SN 2004am was a highly reddened Type II-P SN similar to the low-luminosity Type II-P events such as SNe 1997D and 2005cs. We show that SN 2004am was located coincident with the obscured super star cluster M82-L, and from the cluster age infer a progenitor mass of 12{^{+ 7}_{- 3}} M⊙. In addition to this, we present a high spatial resolution Gemini-North Telescope K-band adaptive optics image of the site of SN 2008iz and a second transient of uncertain nature, both detected so far only at radio wavelengths. Using image subtraction techniques together with archival data from the Hubble Space Telescope, we are able to recover a NIR transient source coincident with both objects. We find the likely extinction towards SN 2008iz to be not more than AV ˜ 10. The nature of the second transient remains elusive and we regard an extremely bright microquasar in M82 as the most plausible scenario.

A Conventional Internal Combustion Engine Versus a Range Extended Electric Vehicle Under the Current Regulatory Regime in the United Kingdom

Transport accounts for 22% of greenhouse gas emissions in the United Kingdom and cars are expected tomore than double by 2050. Car manufacturers are continually aiming for a substantially reduced carbonfootprint through improved fuel efficiency and better powertrain performance due to the strict EuropeanUnion emissions standards. However, road tax, not just fuel efficiency, is a key consideration of consumerswhen purchasing a car. While measures have been taken to reduce emissions through stricter standards, infuture, alternative technologies will be used. Electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles and range extended electricvehicles have been identified as some of these future technologies. In this research a virtual test bed of aconventional internal combustion engine and a range extended electric vehicle family saloon car were builtin AVL’s vehicle and powertrain system level simulation tool, CRUISE, to simulate the New EuropeanDrive Cycle and the results were then soft-linked to a techno-economic model to compare the effectivenessof current support mechanisms over the full life cycle of both cars. The key finding indicates that althoughcarbon emissions are substantially reduced, switching is still not financially the best option for either theconsumer or the government in the long run.

Tri-axial accelerometers quantify behaviour in the Eurasian badger (Meles meles): towards an automated interpretation of field data

The popularity of tri-axial accelerometer data loggers to quantify animal activity through the analysis of signature traces is increasing. However, there is no consensus on how to process the large data sets that these devices generate when recording at the necessary high sample rates. In addition, there have been few attempts to validate accelerometer traces with specific behaviours in non-domesticated terrestrial mammals.

Forced Displacement, Suffering and the Aesthetics of Loss

This article investigates how artists have addressed shocking experiences of displacement in different political contexts. Drawing on the notion of ‘the aesthetics of loss’ (Köstlin, 2010), it examines and compares the different aims, desires and strategies that have shaped the histories and social lives of paintings, memorial statues, installations and other artefacts. The analysis identifies a mode of artistic engagement with the sense of a ‘loss of homeland’ that has been commonly felt amongst Sudeten German expellees, namely the production and framing of visual images as markers of collective trauma. These aesthetics of loss are contrasted with the approach taken by the Dutch artist Sophie Ernst in her project entitled HOME. Working with displaced people from Pakistan, India, Palestine, Israel and Iraq, she created a mnemonic space to stimulate a more individualistic, exploratory engagement with the loss of home, which aimed, in part, to elicit interpersonal empathy. To simply oppose these two modes of aesthetic engagement, however, would ignore the ways in which artefacts are drawn into different discursive, affective and spatial formations. This article argues for the need to expose such dynamic processes of framing and reframing by focusing on the processual aspects of aestheticisation with attention to the perspective of loss.

Regional and urban air quality modelling under a climate change scenario

The better understanding of the interactions between climate change and air quality is an emerging priority for research and policy. Climate change will bring changes in the climate system, which will affect the concentration and dispersion of air pollutants. The main objective of the current study is to assess the impacts of climate change on air quality in 2050 over Portugal and Porto urban area. First, an evaluation and characterization of the air quality over mainland Portugal was performed for the period between 2002 and 2012. The results show that NO2, PM10 and O3 are the critical pollutants in Portugal. Also, the influence of meteorology on O3, NO2 and PM10 levels was investigate in the national main urban areas (Porto and Lisboa) and was verified that O3 has a statistically significant relationship with temperature in most of the components. The results also indicate that emission control strategies are primary regulators for NO2 and PM10 levels. After, understanding the national air quality problems and the influence that meteorology had in the historical air quality levels, the air quality modelling system WRF-CAMx was tested and the required inputs for the simulations were prepared to fulfil the main goal of this work. For the required air quality modelling inputs, an Emission Projections under RCP scenarios (EmiPro-RCP) model was developed to assist the estimation of future emission inventories for GHG and common air pollutants. Also, the current emissions were estimated for Portugal with a higher detailed disaggregation to improve the performance of the air quality simulations. The air quality modelling system WRF/CAMx was tested and evaluated over Portugal and Porto urban area and the results point out that is an adequate tool for the analysis of air quality under climate change. For this purpose, regional simulations of air quality during historical period and future (2045-2050) were conducted with CAMx version 6.0 to evaluate the impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the study area. The climate and the emission projections were produced under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results from the simulations point out, that if the anthropogenic emissions keep the same in 2050, the concentrations of NO2, PM10 and O3 will increase in Portugal. When, besides the climate change effects, is consider the projected anthropogenic emissions the annual mean concentrations of NO2 decrease significantly in Portugal and Porto urban area, and on the contrary the annual mean PM10 concentrations increases in Portugal and decrease in Porto urban area. The O3 results are mainly caused by the reduction of ozone precursors, getting the higher reductions in urban areas and increases in the surrounding areas. All the analysis performed for both simulations for Porto urban area support that, for PM10 and O3, there will be an increase in the occurrence of extreme values, surpassing the annual legislated parameters and having more daily exceedances. This study constitutes an innovative scientific tool to help in future air quality management in order to mitigate future climate change impacts on air quality.

Calibração de um modelo hidrológico SWAT para a bacia hidrográfica da Ribeira de Quarteira

O Algarve é uma região que apresenta algumas particularidades no que toca às necessidades hídricas e respetiva disponibilidade. O consumo de água é relativamente elevado e as necessidades hídricas são mais elevadas nos meses de Verão quando a precipitação é escassa. Deste modo é de grande importância a realização de uma boa gestão dos recursos hídricos de modo a garantir a sustentabilidade dos recursos naturais. Neste âmbito surge a aplicação de softwares de modelação hidrológica que permitem realizar prognósticos simulando as condições a que o meio está sujeito. Na presente dissertação pretende-se aplicar o modelo SWAT para modelar as condições atuais registadas na bacia hidrográfica da Ribeira de Quarteira. Pretende-se também realizar a modelação de cenários de alterações climáticas previstas para dois períodos futuros: 2020-2050 e 2069-2099. A construção do modelo foi realizada em ArcSWAT, a análise de outputs foi feita em SWAT_Check e para a calibração e validação do modelo utilizou-se o software SWAT-CUP4. Os resultados obtidos na calibração e validação são relativamente satisfatórios tendo em conta a fraca qualidade e quantidade dos dados de entrada disponíveis e considerando-se o meio geológico cársico onde se pretendeu realizar a modelação. Os cenários simulados tiveram como base dois modelos climáticos realizados no âmbito do projeto CLIMWAT (ICTP-REGCM3 e CNRM-RM5.1). Os resultados de ambos modelos apontam para um aumento de temperatura e diminuição generalizada de precipitação que têm como consequência um aumento significativo de evapotranspiração real e uma diminuição muito grande de recarga profunda e do caudal instantâneo. Um dos modelos aponta para, no período 2020-2050, um aumento de eventos extremos (secas e cheias). Estas previsões vêm reforçar a grande necessidade de uma boa gestão dos recursos hídricos.

Instalações solares térmicas em edifícios de habitação colectiva: estudo de soluções alternativas num caso prático

Se considerarmos todos os edifícios do mundo, estes são responsáveis por uns surpreendentes 40% do consumo global de energia e pela resultante pegada ecológica, ultrapassando significativamente os resultados de todos os meios de transporte em conjunto. Existem grandes e atractivas oportunidades de redução da utilização de energia nos edifícios com menores custos e maiores retornos que noutros sectores. Estas reduções são fundamentais para alcançar o objectivo da Agência Internacional de Energia (AIE), de reduzir em cerca de 70% das emissões de gases com efeito de estufa, de todo o planeta em 2050, isto para atingir os níveis de CO2 estabelecidos e exigidos pelo Painel Intergovernamental sobre as Alterações Climáticas (IPCC, na sigla inglesa). No caso dos edifícios de habitação, a produção de água quente (AQS), é o segundo maior factor de consumo de energia: cerca de 30% do consumo energético total. Para ajudar a minimizar todos estes grandes consumos de energia, existem soluções, nomeadamente para o aquecimento da AQS, que podemos aplicar nos edifícios de habitação colectiva (multifamiliares) ou moradias, utilizando fontes de energia renovável. E neste caso estamos a falar da energia solar térmica. Das várias soluções propostas e utilizadas diariamente, principalmente nos edifícios de habitação colectiva, existirá aquela que, do ponto de vista técnico-económico, numa perspectiva de eficiência energética/custo-benefício, se antevê como a melhor solução, uma vez que é frequente que não se tenha conhecimento de causa sobre cada uma delas. A presente tese baseia-se na análise de várias soluções de sistemas de energia solar térmica para o aquecimento de AQS em edifícios de habitação colectiva, com o objectivo de analisar e comparar as várias soluções. Espera-se contribuir para a clarificação dos vários sistemas utilizados e propostos actualmente no mercado

Contamination of farmed gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata, Linnaeus, 1758) by the parasite Amyloodinium ocellatum: a proteomic approach

Dissertação de mestrado, Aquacultura e Pescas, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Uniersidade do Algarve, 2015

Enabling solar electricity with electric vehicles in future energy systems

Tese de doutoramento, Sistemas Sustentáveis de Energia, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2015