Metodologías de valoración de empresas

La valoración de una empresa como sistema dinámico es bastante compleja, los diferentes modelos o métodos de valoración son una aproximación teórica y por consiguiente simplificadora de la realidad. Dichos modelos, se aproximan mediante supuestos o premisas estadísticas que nos permiten hacer dicha simplificación, ejemplos de estos, son el comportamiento del inversionista o la eficiencia del mercado. Bajo el marco de un mercado emergente, este proceso presenta de indistinta forma retos paracualquier método de valoración, dado a que el mercado no obedece a los paradigmas tradicionales. Lo anterior hace referencia a que la valoración es aún más compleja, dado que los inversionistas se enfrentan a mayores riesgos y obstáculos. Así mismo, a medida que las economías se globalizan y el capital es más móvil, la valoración tomaráaún más importancia en el contexto citado. Este trabajo de gradopretende recopilar y analizar los diferentes métodos de valoración, además de identificar y aplicar aquellos que se reconocen como “buenas prácticas”. Este proceso se llevó a cabo para una de las empresas más importantes de Colombia, donde fundamentalmente se consideró el contexto de mercado emergente y específicamente el sector petrolero, como criterios para la aplicación del tradicional DCF y el práctico R&V.

El invento de los derechos de aduana deducibles

Esta obra trata de forma innovadora sobre el descubrimiento de una nueva tecnología aduanera: los derechos de aduana deducibles. El punto de partida es una radiografía de la problemática de la mundialización económica y financiera que constituye un desafío para todos los gobiernos. El comercio internacional es libre, sin derechos de aduana. Sin embargo, los costos sociales, fiscales, medioambientales y de producción son inequitativos. En este contexto, el FIREF ha creado una herramienta que permite tratar las asimetrías económicas planetarias: un derecho de aduana de nueva generación.

Etude de pratiques enseignantes et de différenciations dans les apprentissages mathématiques scolaires à l’école primaire

Dans le cadre du réseau RESEIDA (REcherches sur la Socialisation, l’Enseignement, les Inégalités et les Différenciations dans les Apprentissages, co-piloté par E. Bautier et J-Y. Rochex), je participe depuis plusieurs années à une recherche qui vise à étudier des pratiques enseignantes contextualisées et leurs effets potentiellement différenciateurs sur les apprentissages d’élèves, en croisant des points de vue issus de différentes didactiques et de la sociologie de l'éducation. Dans ce contexte, un imposant corpus de données a été recueilli dans deux classes françaises de CM2 (élèves de 10-11 ans) considérées comme hétérogènes (d'après les résultats d'évaluations nationales, les caractéristiques familiales) en 2004-2005: composé à la fois de données filmiques orientées vers les pratiques d’enseignantes et d’élèves en situation de classe, de photocopies de cahiers ou de productions d’élèves. Ma présentation se centre sur l’analyse d’une partie de ces données, concernant l’enseignement des mathématiques observé dans une des deux classes de CM2. Plus précisément, j’effectue un zoom sur deux situations observées dans cette classe: une situation de résolution de problèmes et une situation d’enseignement des pourcentages. Ces deux situations apparaissent contrastées (gestion enseignante, apprentissages mathématiques potentiels, etc.). Mais elles permettent précisément de montrer que derrière une hétérogénéité apparente de pratiques d’une enseignante, une façon commune de penser et de faire la classe de mathématiques se joue, dont on peut penser qu’elle pèse fortement sur les apprentissages potentiels en contexte scolaire

Evaluación de la sintomatología negativista desafiante en niños de 6 a 8 años: concordancia entre padres y maestros

El objetivo principal de este estudio es conocer el grado de concordancia entre los informes proporcionados por padres y maestros acerca de la sintomatología negativista desafiante en niños en edad escolar (6-8 años). Además, se pretende analizar si la edad y el sexo del niño afectan el nivel de acuerdo entre informantes. Padres y maestros evaluaron a 702 niños y niñas de 25 escuelas de la Comarca de Osona, Barcelona (España), mediante el Child Sympton Inventory-4 (versión padres y maestros). Los resultados indican una concordancia muy baja, casi nula, entre las valoraciones de ambos informantes; además, las variables edad y sexo de los niños no representan una diferencia significativa en dichas valoraciones. Los padres tienden a evaluar más síntomas del Trastorno Negativista Desafiante como presentes, y a percibir con mayor intensidad su severidad

Student's watcher : comparison between ASP.NET and PHP+CSS

"Student’s Watcher” is a small Web application which wants to show in a visual, simple and fast way, the evolution of the students. The main project table displays such things as marks and comments about students. We can add a comment for each mark to explain why this mark. The objective is to be able to know if some student has a problem, how is going his year, marks in other courses, or even, to know if he has a bad week in a different subjects. We can see the evolution of students in past years to do an objective comparison. It also allows inserting global comments of student, we have a list of these, and all professors can add new ones, where we can see more general valuations. “Student’s Watcher” was begun in ASP.net, but finally my project would be developed in PHP, HTML and CSS. This project wants to be a comparison between two of most important languages used nowadays, ASPX and PHP

Recerca sobre les persones amb discapacitat psíquica contractades a l'Administració de la Generalitat de Catalunya. Anàlisi de la incidència de la inserció laboral en diferents dimensions de la vida dels treballadors amb discapacitat psíquica

L'activitat professional és fonamental en la vida de qualsevol persona i en el cas de les persones amb discapacitat resulta molt potent per tal que assumeixin la identitat adulta. Per això, en la tesi es realitza una aproximació al binomi discapacitat i treball i a les mesures que justifiquen l'actual situació de la inserció laboral de les persones amb discapacitat al mercat laboral protegit i al mercat laboral ordinari. L'objectiu general de la tesi és conèixer en profunditat una experiència d'inserció laboral de persones amb discapacitat psíquica a l'Administració de la Generalitat de Catalunya. La investigació realitzada s'ha estructurat en dues fases. En la primera fase s'ha fet una anàlisi descriptiva del col·lectiu estudiat i en la segona fase, emmarcada en una perspectiva metodològica qualitativa, s'ha desenvolupat un estudi de casos per tal de mostrar el testimoni dels protagonistes, partir del seu relat i recollir les seves valoracions.

Vigencia de La novela ecuatoriana, de Ángel F. Rojas (Dossier: Cuatro narradores del 30, relecturas en su centenario)

Luego de ubicar a Ángel F. Rojas entre los ensayistas de temas literarios de su generación, la autora sustenta la vigencia del crítico lojano. Más allá de que no exista, en el siglo XX, ningún otro estudio de similar alcance sobre la novela ecuatoriana, plantea que los méritos de esta obra radican en los criterios de periodización empleados, en que los juicios emitidos se sustentan en criterios estéticos, y en que jerarquiza las obras de acuerdo a su valor literario, no se trata de crítica impresionista o biografista, ni sesgada negativamente por consideraciones ideológicas. Rojas incluye, entonces, tres rasgos propios de la moderna crítica literaria: el deslinde, el establecimiento de jerarquías y la emisión de juicios sustentados en la literaturidad de las obras. Un buen número de las conclusiones del autor mantiene actualidad, igual ocurre con la significación de muchas de ellas en el canon del país. El texto de Rojas inicia la moderna crítica literaria ecuatoriana, y mantiene su lugar referencial entre los estudios de la novela en este país.

Consumer welfare effects of introducing and labeling genetically modified food

Non-hypothetical valuations obtained from experimental auctions in three United States and two European locations were used to calculate welfare effects of introducing and labeling of genetically modified food. Under certain assumptions, we find that introduction of genetically modified food has been welfare enhancing, on average, for United States consumers but not so for Europeans and while mandatory labeling has been beneficial for European consumers, such a policy would be detrimental in the United States. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The loss of Normandy and the invention of Terre Normannorum, 1204

The conquest of Normandy by Philip Augustus of France effectively ended the ‘Anglo-Norman’ realm created in 1066, forcing cross-Channel landholders to choose between their English and their Norman estates. The best source for the resulting tenurial upheaval in England is the Rotulus de valore terrarum Normannorum, a list of seized properties and their former holders, and this article seeks to expand our understanding of the impact of the loss of Normandy through a detailed analysis of this document. First, it demonstrates that the compilation of the roll can be divided into two distinct stages, the first containing valuations taken before royal justices in June 1204 and enrolled before the end of July, and the second consisting of returns to orders for the valuation of particular properties issued during the summer and autumn, as part of the process by which these estates were committed to new holders. Second, study of the roll and other documentary sources permits a better understanding of the order for the seizure of the lands of those who had remained in Normandy, the text of which does not survive. This establishes that this royal order was issued in late May 1204 and, further, that it enjoined the temporary seizure rather than the permanent confiscation of these lands. Moreover, the seizure was not retrospective and covers a specific window of time in 1204. On the one hand, this means that the roll is far from a comprehensive record of terre Normannorum. On the other hand, it is possible to correlate the identities of those Anglo-Norman landholders whose English estates were seized with the military progress of the French king through the duchy in May and June and thus shed new light on the campaign of 1204. Third, the article considers the initial management of the seized estates and highlights the fact that, when making arrangements for the these lands, John was primarily concerned to maintain his freedom of manoeuvre, since he was not prepared to accept that Normandy had been lost for good.

German open ended funds: was there a valuation problem?

In late 2005, a number of German open ended funds suffered significant withdrawals by unit holders. The crisis was precipitated by a long term bear market in German property investment and the fact that these funds offered short term liquidity to unit holders but had low levels of liquidity in the fund. A more controversial suggestion was that the crisis was exacerbated by a perception that the valuations of the fund were too infrequent and inaccurate. As units are priced by reference to these valuations with no secondary market, the valuation process is central to the process. There is no direct evidence that these funds were over-valued but there is circumstantial evidence and this paper examines the indirect evidence of the process to see whether the hypothesis that valuation is an issue for the German funds holds any credibility. It also discusses whether there is a wider issue for other funds of this nature or whether it is a parochial problem confined to Germany. The conclusions are that there is reason to believe that German valuation processes make over-valuation in a recession more likely than in other countries and that more direct research into the German valuation system is required to identify the issues which need to be addressed to make the valuation system more trusted.

The uncertainty of valuation

Valuation is often said to be “an art not a science” but this relates to the techniques employed to calculate value not to the underlying concept itself. Valuation is the process of estimating price in the market place. Yet, such an estimation will be affected by uncertainties. Uncertainty in the comparable information available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the valuation. The degree of the uncertainties will vary according to the level of market activity; the more active a market, the more credence will be given to the input information. In the UK at the moment the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) is considering ways in which the uncertainty of the output figure, the valuation, can be conveyed to the use of the valuation, but as yet no definitive view has been taken apart from a single Guidance Note (GN5, RICS 2003) stressing the importance of recognising uncertainty in valuation but not proffering any particular solution. One of the major problems is that Valuation models (in the UK) are based upon comparable information and rely upon single inputs. They are not probability based, yet uncertainty is probability driven. In this paper, we discuss the issues underlying uncertainty in valuations and suggest a probability-based model (using Crystal Ball) to address the shortcomings of the current model.

Valuation accuracy: reconciling the timing of the valuation and sale

Carsberg (2002) suggested that the periodic valuation accuracy studies undertaken by, amongst others, IPD/Drivers Jonas (2003) should be undertaken every year and be sponsored by the RICS, which acts as the self-regulating body for valuations in the UK. This paper does not address the wider issues concerning the nature of properties which are sold and whether the sale prices are influenced by prior valuations, but considers solely the technical issues concerning the timing of the valuation and sales data. This study uses valuations and sales data from the Investment Property Databank UK Monthly Index to attempt to identify the date that sale data is divulged to valuers. This information will inform accuracy studies that use a cut-off date as to the closeness of valuations to sales completion date as a yardstick for excluding data from the analysis. It will also, assuming valuers are informed quickly of any agreed sales, help to determine the actual sale agreed date rather than the completion date, which includes a period of due diligence between when the sale is agreed and its completion. Valuations should be updated to this date, rather than the formal completion date, if a reliable measure of valuation accuracy is to be determined. An accuracy study is then undertaken using a variety of updating periods and the differences between the results are examined. The paper concludes that the sale only becomes known to valuers in the month prior to the sale taking place and that this assumes either that sales due diligence procedures are shortening or valuers are not told quickly of agreed sale prices. Studies that adopt a four-month cut-off date for any valuations compared to sales completion dates are over cautious, and this could be reduced to two months without compromising the data.

Benchmarking and valuation issues in measuring depreciation for European office markets

Purpose – The paper addresses the practical problems which emerge when attempting to apply longitudinal approaches to the assessment of property depreciation using valuation-based data. These problems relate to inconsistent valuation regimes and the difficulties in finding appropriate benchmarks. Design/methodology/approach – The paper adopts a case study of seven major office locations around Europe and attempts to determine ten-year rental value depreciation rates based on a longitudinal approach using IPD, CBRE and BNP Paribas datasets. Findings – The depreciation rates range from a 5 per cent PA depreciation rate in Frankfurt to a 2 per cent appreciation rate in Stockholm. The results are discussed in the context of the difficulties in applying this method with inconsistent data. Research limitations/implications – The paper has methodological implications for measuring property investment depreciation and provides an example of the problems in adopting theoretically sound approaches with inconsistent information. Practical implications – Valuations play an important role in performance measurement and cross border investment decision making and, therefore, knowledge of inconsistency of valuation practice aids decision making and informs any application of valuation-based data in the attainment of depreciation rates. Originality/value – The paper provides new insights into the use of property market valuation data in a cross-border context, insights that previously had been anecdotal and unproven in nature.

Pricing short leases and break clauses using simulation methodology

This paper examines the changes in the length of commercial property leases over the last decade and presents an analysis of the consequent investment and occupational pricing implications for commercial property investmentsIt is argued that the pricing implications of a short lease to an investor are contingent upon the expected costs of the letting termination to the investor, the probability that the letting will be terminated and the volatility of rental values.The paper examines the key factors influencing these variables and presents a framework for incorporating their effects into pricing models.Approaches to their valuation derived from option pricing are critically assessed. It is argued that such models also tend to neglect the price effects of specific risk factors such as tenant circumstances and the terms of break clause. Specific risk factors have a significant bearing on the probability of letting termination and on the level of the resultant financial losses. The merits of a simulation methododology are examined for rental and capital valuations of short leases and properties with break clauses.It is concluded that in addition to the rigour of its internal logic, the success of any methodology is predicated upon the accuracy of the inputs.The lack of reliable data on patterns in, and incidence of, lease termination and the lack of reliable time series of historic property performance limit the efficacy of financial models.

The uncertainty of valuation

Valuation is often said to be “an art not a science” but this relates to the techniques employed to calculate value not to the underlying concept itself. Valuation is the process of estimating price in the market place. Yet, such an estimation will be affected by uncertainties. Uncertainty in the comparable information available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the valuation. The degree of the uncertainties will vary according to the level of market activity; the more active a market, the more credence will be given to the input information. In the UK at the moment the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) is considering ways in which the uncertainty of the output figure, the valuation, can be conveyed to the use of the valuation, but as yet no definitive view has been taken. One of the major problems is that Valuation models (in the UK) are based upon comparable information and rely upon single inputs. They are not probability based, yet uncertainty is probability driven. In this paper, we discuss the issues underlying uncertainty in valuations and suggest a probability-based model (using Crystal Ball) to address the shortcomings of the current model.