Combined exposure to multiple mycotoxins in food: are we ready for risk assessment and risk management?

It is nowadays recognized that the risk of human co-exposure to multiple mycotoxins is real. In the last years, a number of studies have approached the issue of co-exposure and the best way to develop a more precise and realistic assessment. Likewise, the growing concern about the combined effects of mycotoxins and their potential impact on human health has been reflected by the increasing number of toxicological studies on the combined toxicity of these compounds. Nevertheless, risk assessment of these toxins, still follows the conventional paradigm of single exposure and single effects, incorporating only the possibility of additivity but not taking into account the complex dynamics associated to interactions between different mycotoxins or between mycotoxins and other food contaminants. Considering that risk assessment is intimately related to the establishment of regulatory guidelines, once the risk assessment is completed, an effort to reduce or manage the risk should be followed to protect public health. Risk assessment of combined human exposure to multiple mycotoxins thus poses several challenges to scientists, risk assessors and risk managers and opens new avenues for research. This presentation aims to give an overview of the different challenges posed by the likelihood of human co-exposure to mycotoxins and the possibility of interactive effects occurring after absorption, towards knowledge generation to support a more accurate human risk assessment and risk management. For this purpose, a physiologically-based framework that includes knowledge on the bioaccessibility, toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics of multiple toxins is proposed. Regarding exposure assessment, the need of harmonized food consumption data, availability of multianalyte methods for mycotoxin quantification, management of left-censored data and use of probabilistic models will be highlight, in order to develop a more precise and realistic exposure assessment. On the other hand, the application of predictive mathematical models to estimate mycotoxins’ combined effects from in vitro toxicity studies will be also discussed. Results from a recent Portuguese project aimed at exploring the toxic effects of mixtures of mycotoxins in infant foods and their potential health impact will be presented as a case study, illustrating the different aspects of risk assessment highlighted in this presentation. Further studies on hazard and exposure assessment of multiple mycotoxins, using harmonized approaches and methodologies, will be crucial towards an improvement in data quality and contributing to holistic risk assessment and risk management strategies for multiple mycotoxins in foodstuffs.

Resilience and Urban Risk Management

International audience

An ontology for risk management of digital collections

Maintaining accessibility to and understanding of digital information over time is a complex challenge that often requires contributions and interventions from a variety of individuals and organizations. The processes of preservation planning and evaluation are fundamentally implicit and share similar complexity. Both demand comprehensive knowledge and understanding of every aspect of to-be-preserved content and the contexts within which preservation is undertaken. Consequently, means are required for the identification, documentation and association of those properties of data, representation and management mechanisms that in combination lend value, facilitate interaction and influence the preservation process. These properties may be almost limitless in terms of diversity, but are integral to the establishment of classes of risk exposure, and the planning and deployment of appropriate preservation strategies. We explore several research objectives within the course of this thesis. Our main objective is the conception of an ontology for risk management of digital collections. Incorporated within this are our aims to survey the contexts within which preservation has been undertaken successfully, the development of an appropriate methodology for risk management, the evaluation of existing preservation evaluation approaches and metrics, the structuring of best practice knowledge and lastly the demonstration of a range of tools that utilise our findings. We describe a mixed methodology that uses interview and survey, extensive content analysis, practical case study and iterative software and ontology development. We build on a robust foundation, the development of the Digital Repository Audit Method Based on Risk Assessment. We summarise the extent of the challenge facing the digital preservation community (and by extension users and creators of digital materials from many disciplines and operational contexts) and present the case for a comprehensive and extensible knowledge base of best practice. These challenges are manifested in the scale of data growth, the increasing complexity and the increasing onus on communities with no formal training to offer assurances of data management and sustainability. These collectively imply a challenge that demands an intuitive and adaptable means of evaluating digital preservation efforts. The need for individuals and organisations to validate the legitimacy of their own efforts is particularly prioritised. We introduce our approach, based on risk management. Risk is an expression of the likelihood of a negative outcome, and an expression of the impact of such an occurrence. We describe how risk management may be considered synonymous with preservation activity, a persistent effort to negate the dangers posed to information availability, usability and sustainability. Risk can be characterised according to associated goals, activities, responsibilities and policies in terms of both their manifestation and mitigation. They have the capacity to be deconstructed into their atomic units and responsibility for their resolution delegated appropriately. We continue to describe how the manifestation of risks typically spans an entire organisational environment, and as the focus of our analysis risk safeguards against omissions that may occur when pursuing functional, departmental or role-based assessment. We discuss the importance of relating risk-factors, through the risks themselves or associated system elements. To do so will yield the preservation best-practice knowledge base that is conspicuously lacking within the international digital preservation community. We present as research outcomes an encapsulation of preservation practice (and explicitly defined best practice) as a series of case studies, in turn distilled into atomic, related information elements. We conduct our analyses in the formal evaluation of memory institutions in the UK, US and continental Europe. Furthermore we showcase a series of applications that use the fruits of this research as their intellectual foundation. Finally we document our results in a range of technical reports and conference and journal articles. We present evidence of preservation approaches and infrastructures from a series of case studies conducted in a range of international preservation environments. We then aggregate this into a linked data structure entitled PORRO, an ontology relating preservation repository, object and risk characteristics, intended to support preservation decision making and evaluation. The methodology leading to this ontology is outlined, and lessons are exposed by revisiting legacy studies and exposing the resource and associated applications to evaluation by the digital preservation community.

Constraints to the efficacy of risk management process in entrepreneurial companies

This paper highlights potential factors that affect the degree of efficacy of a formal risk management framework in entrepreneurial organisations. The understanding of entrepreneur’s self-schemas, entrepreneurial organisational culture and working environment is crucial to evaluate the efficacy of a risk management process. This research pointed out two main issues: i) the entrepreneurial decision making process with presence of biases and heuristics in judgement under uncertainty; and ii) the entrepreneurial organisational context that might create constraints to the implementation of a risk management framework.

Risk management for mathematical optimization under uncertainty

We present a general multistage stochastic mixed 0-1 problem where the uncertainty appears everywhere in the objective function, constraints matrix and right-hand-side. The uncertainty is represented by a scenario tree that can be a symmetric or a nonsymmetric one. The stochastic model is converted in a mixed 0-1 Deterministic Equivalent Model in compact representation. Due to the difficulty of the problem, the solution offered by the stochastic model has been traditionally obtained by optimizing the objective function expected value (i.e., mean) over the scenarios, usually, along a time horizon. This approach (so named risk neutral) has the inconvenience of providing a solution that ignores the variance of the objective value of the scenarios and, so, the occurrence of scenarios with an objective value below the expected one. Alternatively, we present several approaches for risk averse management, namely, a scenario immunization strategy, the optimization of the well known Value-at-Risk (VaR) and several variants of the Conditional Value-at-Risk strategies, the optimization of the expected mean minus the weighted probability of having a "bad" scenario to occur for the given solution provided by the model, the optimization of the objective function expected value subject to stochastic dominance constraints (SDC) for a set of profiles given by the pairs of threshold objective values and either bounds on the probability of not reaching the thresholds or the expected shortfall over them, and the optimization of a mixture of the VaR and SDC strategies.

Concepts about risk management in libraries : Notes for characterization

El presente trabajo revisa la bibliografía sobre gestión del riesgo (GRi) que ha aparecido en los últimos tiempos, intentando anclar sus nociones, recomendaciones, pautas y estándares al ámbito de las bibliotecas y centros de documentación e información. Se analiza su utilidad, realizando un balance sobre la bibliografía consultada, proveniente tanto de Argentina como de distintos países. Se concluye sobre la necesidad de aplicar los procesos y los estándares inherentes a la GRi a los de las unidades de información para evitar los peligros o las amenazas en distintos ámbitos tales como el financiero, comunicacional, tecnológico, humano, ambiental, entre otros

Reviewing the hedge funds literature II:hedge funds' returns and risk management characteristics

This paper summarizes the literature on hedge funds (HFs) developed over the last two decades, particularly that which relates to risk management characteristics (a companion piece investigates the managerial characteristics of HFs). It discusses the successes and the shortfalls to date in developing more sophisticated risk management frameworks and tools to measure and monitor HF risks, and the empirical evidence on the role of the HFs and their investment behaviour and risk management practices on the stability of the financial system. It also classifies the HF literature considering the most recent contributions and, particularly, the regulatory developments after the 2007 financial crisis.

Geometrical Methods in Multivariate Risk Management: Algorithms and Applications

This thesis builds a framework for evaluating downside risk from multivariate data via a special class of risk measures (RM). The peculiarity of the analysis lies in getting rid of strong data distributional assumptions and in orientation towards the most critical data in risk management: those with asymmetries and heavy tails. At the same time, under typical assumptions, such as the ellipticity of the data probability distribution, the conformity with classical methods is shown. The constructed class of RM is a multivariate generalization of the coherent distortion RM, which possess valuable properties for a risk manager. The design of the framework is twofold. The first part contains new computational geometry methods for the high-dimensional data. The developed algorithms demonstrate computability of geometrical concepts used for constructing the RM. These concepts bring visuality and simplify interpretation of the RM. The second part develops models for applying the framework to actual problems. The spectrum of applications varies from robust portfolio selection up to broader spheres, such as stochastic conic optimization with risk constraints or supervised machine learning.

O Processo de gestão de risco nas organizações

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientada por Mestre Carlos Manuel Antunes Mendes

A case study of the Ottawa Valley whitewater rafting industry : standards and risks

This qualitative case study identifies and discusses the standards and risk management practices of the Ottawa Valley whitewater rafting industry and the impacts of the government enforced Special-purpose Vessels Regulations are discussed. Data collection occurred using a single case study design, which included interviews and document analysis. This study found that internal, industry, and actual standards are influenced through a variety of sources. These standards were found to affect the risk management practices of commercial whitewater rafting providers. In general, these standards promoted a high level of risk management within the Ottawa Valley rafting industry. The Special-purpose Vessels Regulations were found to be non-influential in raising the risk management standards of the Ottawa Valley whitewater rafting industry.

Les risques découlant de la diffusion sur les plateformes néomédiatiques du point de vue des producteurs audiovisuels

La diffusion sur les plateformes néomédiatiques d’œuvres audiovisuelles, comme les sites Internet des télédiffuseurs ou des webdiffuseurs, la vidéo sur demande, la télévision mobile ou la webdistribution, modifie les risques que les producteurs audiovisuels doivent gérer normalement sur les plateformes traditionnelles, comme la télévision. La mutation des risques découle de quatre sources en particulier, soit du marché, des pratiques d’affaires, des lois et règlements et des techniques elles-mêmes. Ces sources peuvent également induire des normes pouvant constituer un cadre juridique afin de moduler ou éliminer les risques. Le présent mémoire analyse les risques encourus lors de la diffusion sur les plateformes néomédiatiques d’œuvres audiovisuelles du point de vue des producteurs par l’entremise du processus de gestion de risques. Il identifie et recense ainsi les risques en mutation et les nouveaux risques auxquels les producteurs sont confrontés. Puis, les risques identifiés y sont définis et le cadre juridique est abordé dans le contexte de la mise en œuvre d’une stratégie de gestion de risques et des mesures afin d’atténuer ou d’éviter les risques encourus par les activités de production et d’exploitation des producteurs.

Aproximación teórica a la gestión del riesgo como herramienta para la perdurabilidad empresarial

La razón de esta investigación es plantear una alternativa viable, que apoyada en estudios previos, permita identificar los factores que causan la muerte de las empresas y proponer la gestión de riesgo como medida de tratamiento para lograr la perdurabilidad empresarial. Mediante un recorrido sistemático por diferentes estudios y fuentes bibliográficas se identificarán posibles factores causantes de la “muerte de las empresas”. Esta actividad nos conducirá a determinar una lista de “factores” generadores de mortalidad empresarial, los cuales una vez identificados y clasificados serán analizados bajo la perspectiva de la “gestión de riesgos empresarial” con el fin de proponer esta última como medida de tratamiento que contribuya a la perdurabilidad empresarial. El resultado final del proyecto será la propuesta de una herramienta metodológica que contribuya a minimizar el “riesgo de mortalidad empresarial”, tratando los factores que la generan con la herramienta propuesta como resultado de esta investigación.

Prioridades de manejo del riesgo de contaminación del recurso hídrico por efluentes

En el presente trabajo se propone y desarrolla una herramienta de "Gestión del riesgo de contaminación del recurso hídrico", inspirada en métodos comúnmente utilizados en las evaluaciones de impacto ambiental tales como la Matriz de importancia y la Evaluación de riesgo. Dicha herramienta se aplica en el oasis del río Tunuyán Inferior, cuya cuenca se localiza en el sector E de la Cordillera de Los Andes, provincia de Mendoza, Argentina. El método propuesto consiste en la determinación, en cada Unidad de Manejo (UM)3 de: 1. la vulnerabilidad del territorio; 2. la peligrosidad del efluente; 3. las clases de riesgo; 4. el índice prioridad de manejo del riesgo, variables que luego se traducen cartográficamente. Las bases de datos generadas pueden ser analizadas desde distintos enfoques y, a su vez, actualizadas a medida que se van profundizando los conocimientos acerca de los atributos que hacen a la peligrosidad del vertido (ej.: tipo de efluente, tiempo, caudal y lugar de descarga) y a la vulnerabilidad de la UM (ej.: tipo de acuífero, profundidad de nivel freático, permeabilidad del terreno, calidad del suelo, etc.). Esta herramienta de gestión genera un diagnóstico dinámico de la situación, ya que puede ser perfeccionado a través de la investigación de las variables que intervienen en el proceso de contaminación del agua por efluentes. Además, es una herramienta práctica porque jerarquiza las prioridades de gestión, de acuerdo con un orden de aplicación gradual de medidas de manejo del riesgo de contaminación. Teniendo en cuenta la tendencia mundial de reducción de glaciares por efecto del calentamiento global y su impacto negativo en los caudales de los ríos, es indispensable y urgente establecer prioridades de gestión para preservar la calidad del recurso hídrico.

Coping with extreme weather:strategies of construction SMEs

Weather extremes have created a considerable impact on Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) in the UK during the recent years, especially on SMEs in the construction sector. Evidence in relation to the recent weather extremes have demonstrated that SMEs are some of the worst impacted by the Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) and have confirmed them as a highly vulnerable section of the UK economy to the impact of extreme weather. This is of particular importance to the construction industry, as an overarching majority of construction companies are SMEs who account for the majority of employment and income generation within the industry. Whilst construction has been perceived as a sector significantly vulnerable to the impacts of EWEs, there is scant evidence of how construction SMEs respond to such events and cope with their impact. Based on the evidence emerged from case studies of construction SMEs, current coping strategies of construction SMEs were identified. Some of the strategies identified were focused at organisational level whereas others were focused at project level. Further, some of the strategies were general risk management / business continuity strategies whereas others have been specifically developed to address the risk of EWEs. Accordingly, coping strategies can be broadly categorised based on their focus; i.e. those focused at project or organisational level, and based on the risks that they seek to address; i.e. business / continuity risks in general or EWE risk specifically. By overlapping these two aspects; their focus and risks that they seek to address, four categories of coping strategies can be devised. There are; general risk management strategies focused at business level, general risk management strategies focused at project level, EWE specific strategies focused at business level, and EWE specific strategies focused at project level. It is proposed that for a construction SME to effectively cope with the impact of EWEs and develop their resilience against EWEs a rich mix of these coping strategies are required to suite the particular requirements of the business.

Modular risk modeling and management of water infrastructure disaster incidents

Water supply and wastewater control are critical elements of society's infrastructure. The objective of this study will be to provide a generic risk assessment tool to provide municipalities and the nation as a whole with a quantifiable assessment of their vulnerability to water infrastructure threats. The approach will prioritize countermeasures and identify where research and development is required to further minimize risk. This paper outlines the current context, primary concerns and state-of-the art in critical infrastructure risk management for the water sector and proposes a novel approach to resolve existing questions in the field. The proposed approach is based on a modular framework that derives a quantitative risk index for varied domains of interest. The approach methodology is scaleable and based on formal definitions of event probability and severity. The framework is equally applicable to natural and human-induced hazard types and can be used for analysis of compound risk events.