Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

Report on a collection of Lutzomyia sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) from the middle Solimões (Amazonas, Brazil)

Fifty-two species of Lutzomyia sand flies were identified in contemporaneous samples totalling only 1875 individuals, collected at the same site in tall primary terra-firme rainforest, near the south bank of the Solimões River. The most abundant species belonged to the subgenera Trichophoromyia and Nyssomyia. The subgenera Psathyromyia, Nyssomyia and Psychodopygus represented the greatest number of species. A new, aberrant species of the subgenus Psathyromyia (L. cultellata) and the female of Lu. souzacastroi are described. The Phlebotominae are proposed as a suitable indicator group for biogeographic and diversity studies.

A prospective randomised multi-centre controlled trial on tight glucose control by intensive insulin therapy in adult intensive care units: the Glucontrol study.

PURPOSE: An optimal target for glucose control in ICU patients remains unclear. This prospective randomized controlled trial compared the effects on ICU mortality of intensive insulin therapy (IIT) with an intermediate glucose control. METHODS: Adult patients admitted to the 21 participating medico-surgical ICUs were randomized to group 1 (target BG 7.8-10.0 mmol/L) or to group 2 (target BG 4.4-6.1 mmol/L). RESULTS: While the required sample size was 1,750 per group, the trial was stopped early due to a high rate of unintended protocol violations. From 1,101 admissions, the outcomes of 542 patients assigned to group 1 and 536 of group 2 were analysed. The groups were well balanced. BG levels averaged in group 1 8.0 mmol/L (IQR 7.1-9.0) (median of all values) and 7.7 mmol/L (IQR 6.7-8.8) (median of morning BG) versus 6.5 mmol/L (IQR 6.0-7.2) and 6.1 mmol/L (IQR 5.5-6.8) for group 2 (p < 0.0001 for both comparisons). The percentage of patients treated with insulin averaged 66.2 and 96.3%, respectively. Proportion of time spent in target BG was similar, averaging 39.5% and 45.1% (median (IQR) 34.3 (18.5-50.0) and 39.3 (26.2-53.6)%) in the groups 1 and 2, respectively. The rate of hypoglycaemia was higher in the group 2 (8.7%) than in group 1 (2.7%, p < 0.0001). ICU mortality was similar in the two groups (15.3 vs. 17.2%). CONCLUSIONS: In this prematurely stopped and therefore underpowered study, there was a lack of clinical benefit of intensive insulin therapy (target 4.4-6.1 mmol/L), associated with an increased incidence of hypoglycaemia, as compared to a 7.8-10.0 mmol/L target. (ClinicalTrials.gov # NCT00107601, EUDRA-CT Number: 200400391440).

Multimodel inference and multimodel averaging in empirical modeling of occupational exposure levels.

Empirical modeling of exposure levels has been popular for identifying exposure determinants in occupational hygiene. Traditional data-driven methods used to choose a model on which to base inferences have typically not accounted for the uncertainty linked to the process of selecting the final model. Several new approaches propose making statistical inferences from a set of plausible models rather than from a single model regarded as 'best'. This paper introduces the multimodel averaging approach described in the monograph by Burnham and Anderson. In their approach, a set of plausible models are defined a priori by taking into account the sample size and previous knowledge of variables influent on exposure levels. The Akaike information criterion is then calculated to evaluate the relative support of the data for each model, expressed as Akaike weight, to be interpreted as the probability of the model being the best approximating model given the model set. The model weights can then be used to rank models, quantify the evidence favoring one over another, perform multimodel prediction, estimate the relative influence of the potential predictors and estimate multimodel-averaged effects of determinants. The whole approach is illustrated with the analysis of a data set of 1500 volatile organic compound exposure levels collected by the Institute for work and health (Lausanne, Switzerland) over 20 years, each concentration having been divided by the relevant Swiss occupational exposure limit and log-transformed before analysis. Multimodel inference represents a promising procedure for modeling exposure levels that incorporates the notion that several models can be supported by the data and permits to evaluate to a certain extent model selection uncertainty, which is seldom mentioned in current practice.

RTOG 0525: Exploratory Subset Analysis from a Randomized Phase III Trial Comparing Standard (std) Adjuvant Temozolomide (TMZ) with a Dose-dense (dd) Schedule for Glioblastoma (GBM)

Purpose/Objective(s): RTwith TMZ is the standard for GBM. dd TMZ causes prolongedMGMTdepletion in mononuclear cells and possibly in tumor. The RTOG 0525 trial (ASCO 2011) did not show an advantage from dd TMZ for survival or progression free survival. We conducted exploratory, hypothesis-generating subset analyses to detect possible benefit from dd TMZ.Materials/Methods: Patients were randomized to std (150-200 mg/m2 x 5 d) or dd TMZ (75-100 mg/m2 x 21 d) q 4 weeks for 6- 12 cycles. Eligibility included age.18, KPS$ 60, and. 1 cm2 tissue for prospective MGMTanalysis for stratification. Furtheranalyses were performed for all randomized patients (''intent-to-treat'', ITT), and for all patients starting protocol therapy (SPT). Subset analyses were performed by RPA class (III, IV, V), KPS (90-100, = 50,\50), resection (partial, total), gender (female, male), and neurologic dysfunction (nf = none, minor, moderate).Results: No significant difference was seen for median OS (16.6 vs. 14.9 months), or PFS (5.5 vs. 6.7 months, p = 0.06). MGMT methylation was linked to improved OS (21.2 vs. 14 months, p\0.0001), and PFS (8.7 vs. 5.7 months, p\0.0001). For the ITT (n = 833), there was no OS benefit from dd TMZ in any subset. Two subsets showed a PFS benefit for dd TMZ: RPA class III (6.2 vs. 12.6 months, HR 0.69, p = 0.03) and nf = minor (HR 0.77, p = 0.01). For RPA III, dd dramatically delayed progression, but post-progression dd patients died more quickly than std. A similar pattern for nf = minor was observed. For the SPT group (n = 714) there was neither PFS nor OS benefit for dd TMZ, overall. For RPA class III and nf = minor, there was a PFS benefit for dd TMZ (HR 0.73, p = 0.08; HR 0.77, p = 0.02). For nf = moderate subset, both ITT and SPT, the std arm showed superior OS (14.4 vs. 10.9 months) compared to dd, without improved PFS (HR 1.46, p = 0.03; and HR 1.74, p = 0.01. In terms of methylation status within this subset, there were more methylated patients in the std arm of the ITT subset (n = 159; 32 vs. 24%). For the SPT subset (n = 124), methylation status was similar between arms.Conclusions: This study did not demonstrate improved OS for dd TMZ for any subgroup, but for 2 highly functional subgroups, PFS was significantly increased. These data generate the testable hypothesis that intensive treatment may selectively improve disease control in those most likely able to tolerate dd therapy. Interpretation of this should be considered carefully due to small sample size, the process of multiple observations, and other confounders.Acknowledgment: This project was supported by RTOG grant U10 CA21661, and CCOP grant U10 CA37422 from the National Cancer Institute (NCI).

Obesity Weighting up the Evidence: All-Island Multisectoral Conference on Obesity

The World Health Organization reports that overweight and obesity have reached epidemic proportions globally and estimates that approximately 1.6 billion adults and at least 20 million children under the age of five are overweight or obese. It is accepted that being overweight or obese increases the risk of health conditions such as heart disease, stroke, diabetes and some cancers and has significant impacts on a wide range of other factors including education, employment and emotional wellbeing. This conference aimed to present a multisectoral audience with the latest developments in overweight and obesity prevention and management. This presentation was given by Dr. Kevin Balanda, Institute of Public Health in Ireland. The Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) is leading the development of an All-Ireland obesity observatory The obesity observatory development is being undertaken in collaboration with: - HRB Centre for Health and Diet Research ﾖ UCC /UCD - Centre of Excellence for Public Health (NI) - QUB Projected outcomes: Adequate sample size Data to be sought and recorded Usefulness of a database in influencing policy Value to clinicians in management of obesity

Isoenzyme profiles of Trypanosoma cruzi stocks from different areas of Paraguay

Twenty one Trypanosoma cruzi stocks from humans, domiciliary triatomines and one sylvatic animal of different areas of Paraguay were subjected to isoenzyme analysis. Thirteen enzyme systems (15 loci in total) were studied. MN cl2 (clonets 39) and SO34 cl4 (clonets 20) were used as references. Relationships between stocks were depicted by an UPGMA dendrogram constructed using the Jaccard´s distances matrix. Among the Paraguayan stocks 14 zymodemes were identified (Par1 to Par14), Par 5 being the most frequent. Polymorphism rate and clonal diversity were 0.73 and 0.93, respectively. Average number of alleles per polymorphic locus was 2.5 (range 2-4). These measurements show a high diversity, which is confirmed by the dendrogram topology. All stocks belong to the same lineage, as MN cl2 reference strain (T. cruzi II). Moreover three distinct subgroups were identified and two of them correspond to Brazilian and Bolivian zymodemes, respectively. The third subgroup, the most common in Paraguay, is related to Tulahuen stock. The large geographical distribution of some zymodemes agrees with the hypothesis of clonality for T. cruzi populations. However sample size was not adequate to detect genetic recombination in any single locality.

Quantificació de l'error comès pels models de níxol ecològic al predir la distribució d'especies generalistes

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the University of California at Berkeley, from September to December 2007. Environmental niche modelling (ENM) techniques are powerful tools to predict species potential distributions. In the last ten years, a plethora of novel methodological approaches and modelling techniques have been developed. During three months, I stayed at the University of California, Berkeley, working under the supervision of Dr. David R. Vieites. The aim of our work was to quantify the error committed by these techniques, but also to test how an increase in the sample size affects the resultant predictions. Using MaxEnt software we generated distribution predictive maps, from different sample sizes, of the Eurasian quail (Coturnix coturnix) in the Iberian Peninsula. The quail is a generalist species from a climatic point of view, but an habitat specialist. The resultant distribution maps were compared with the real distribution of the species. This distribution was obtained from recent bird atlases from Spain and Portugal. Results show that ENM techniques can have important errors when predicting the species distribution of generalist species. Moreover, an increase of sample size is not necessary related with a better performance of the models. We conclude that a deep knowledge of the species’ biology and the variables affecting their distribution is crucial for an optimal modelling. The lack of this knowledge can induce to wrong conclusions.

Prevalence of infection with hantavirus in rodent populations of central Argentina

We studied hantavirus seroprevalence and virus variability in rodent populations in Diego Gaynor, northwest of Buenos Aires province, Argentina. Rodent samplings were conducted in railroads and cropfield borders in March and July 1999, September and December 2000, and March 2001. Antibody detection was performed by an enzyme link immunosorbent assay (ELISA), using the recombinant nucleoprotein of Andes (AND) virus as antigen. Tissue samples were taken from positive antibody individuals in order to confirm the presence of hantavirus genomic material and to identify virus genotypes. Akodon azarae was the most abundant species, followed by Oligoryzomys flavescens, while Calomys laucha and C. musculinus were rarely caught. We found a rate of seroprevalence of 9.3% for a total sample of 291 A. azarae and 13.5% for 37 O. flavescens. After molecular analyses of hantavirus, we confirmed the presence of hantavirus genomic material in 16 individuals with ELISA (+) results and two individuals with ELISA (-). Four amplimers for each species were sequenced and compared to the corresponding sequences of representative hantaviruses. We identified the AND Cent Lec from three O. flavescens, and the Pergamino virus from four A. azarae and from one O. flavescens. A. azarae males had higher seroprevalence than females, and heavier individuals showed higher seroprevalence than lighter ones. We did not find seroprevalence differences according to sex in O. flavescens, although this result may have been produced by the low sample size. The lowest seroprevalence was found in a period of high rodent density, when juveniles prevailed in the population. We found higher seroprevalences than those detected in previous studies for other localities of central Argentina where cases of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) have been reported. The presence of AND Cent Lec virus in rodent populations of the study area, which is responsible of HPS cases in central Argentina, suggests that human populations are at risk of HPS disease, although there were not reported cases of this disease until today.

Detecting the number of clusters of individuals using the software STRUCTURE: a simulation study.

The identification of genetically homogeneous groups of individuals is a long standing issue in population genetics. A recent Bayesian algorithm implemented in the software STRUCTURE allows the identification of such groups. However, the ability of this algorithm to detect the true number of clusters (K) in a sample of individuals when patterns of dispersal among populations are not homogeneous has not been tested. The goal of this study is to carry out such tests, using various dispersal scenarios from data generated with an individual-based model. We found that in most cases the estimated 'log probability of data' does not provide a correct estimation of the number of clusters, K. However, using an ad hoc statistic DeltaK based on the rate of change in the log probability of data between successive K values, we found that STRUCTURE accurately detects the uppermost hierarchical level of structure for the scenarios we tested. As might be expected, the results are sensitive to the type of genetic marker used (AFLP vs. microsatellite), the number of loci scored, the number of populations sampled, and the number of individuals typed in each sample.

Host nutritional status as a contributory factor to the remodeling of schistosomal hepatic fibrosis

Weaning Swiss mice were percutaneously infected with 30 cercariae of Schistosoma mansoni and submitted to a shifting either from a deficient to a balanced diet or vice-versa, for 24 weeks. The nutritional status was weekly evaluated by measurements of growth curves and food intake. Hepatic fibrosis and periovular granulomas were studied by histological, morphometric and biochemical methods. All mice fed on a deficient diet failed to develop periportal "pipestem" fibrosis after chronic infection. An unexpected finding was the absence of pipestem fibrosis in mice on normal diet, probably related to the sample size. The lower values for nutritional parameters were mainly due to the deficient diet, rather than to infection. Liver/body weight ratio was higher in "early undernutrition" group, after shifting to the balanced diet. Volume density and numerical density of egg granulomas reached lowest values in undernourished animals. The amount of collagen was reduced in undernourished mice, attaining higher concentrations in well-fed controls and in "late undernutrition" (balanced diet shifted to a deficient one), where collagen deposition appeared increased in granulomas. That finding suggested interference with collagen degradation and resorption in "late" undernourished animals. Thus, host nutritional status plays a role in connective tissue changes of hepatic schistosomiasis in mice.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 Brazilian subtype B variant showed an increasing avidity of the anti-V3 antibodies over time compared to the subtype B US/European strain in São Paulo, Brazil

The Brazilian variant of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype B, (serotype B"-GWGR), has a tryptophan replacing the proline in position 328 the HIV-1 envelope. A longer median time period from infection to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) for serotype B (B"-GWGR) infected subjects compared to the B-GPGR US/European strain was reported. In a cohort study, in São Paulo city, 10 B"-GWGR patients had a statistically significant increased avidity of the anti-V3 antibodies, from 79% ± 33% to 85% ± 75%, versus from 48% ± 59% to 32% ± 17% for the 10 B-GPGR subjects (p = 0.02). The T CD4+ cells showed a mean increase of + 0.45 cells/month for the B-GPGR subjects and for B"-GWGR the slope was + 1.24 cells/month (p = 0.06), for 62 and 55 months of follow up, respectively. RNA plasma viral load decreased from 3.98 ± 1.75 to 2.16 ± 1.54 log10 in the B"-GWGR group while B-GPGR patients showed one log10 reduction in viral load from 4.09 ± 0.38 to 3.17 ± 1.47 log10 over time (p = 0.23), with a decreasing slope of 0.0042 ± log10,/month and 0.0080 ± log10/month, for B-GPGR and B"-GWGR patients, respectively (p = 0.53). Neither group presented any AIDS defining events during the study, according to Center for Diseases Control criteria. Although the sample size is small, these results may indicate that differences in the pathogenicity of the 2 HIV-1 B serotypes which co-circulate in Brazil may be correlated to the avidity of anti-V3 antibodies.

Social support group interventions in people with dementia and mild cognitive impairment: a systematic review of the literature

Abstract Despite the large number of studies evaluating social support groups for people with dementia, there are no systematic reviews of current evidence.The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of social support group interventions for people with dementia and mild cognitive impairment.A systematic review was performed. We searched electronic databases for randomised controlled trials. Two reviewers worked independently to select trials, extract data and assess risk of bias. A total of 546 studies were identified of which two met the inclusion criteria. We were not able to pool data for further analyses, as the interventions tested in the studies meeting the inclusion criteria were too dissimilar in content.The first trial (n = 136) showed a benefit of early-stage memory loss social support groups for depression and quality of life in people with dementia.The second trial (n = 33) showed that post-treatment self-reported self-esteem was higher in the group receiving a multicomponent intervention of social support compared with that in the no intervention control group.Limited data from two studies suggest that support groups may be of psychological benefit to people with dementia by reducing depression and improving quality of life and self-esteem.These findings need to be viewed in light of the small number, small sample size and heterogeneous characteristics of current trials, indicating that it is difficult to draw any conclusions. More multicentre randomised controlled trials in social support group interventions for people with dementia are needed.������������

Mental health of children and young people in Great Britain, 2004

This report first describes the prevalence of mental disorders among 5- to 16-year olds in 2004 and notes any changes since the previous survey in 1999. It then provides profiles of children in each of the main disorder categories (emotional, conduct, hyperkinetic and autistic spectrum disorders) and , where the sample size permits, profiles subgroups within these categories.

Indexes and boundaries for "quantitative significance" in statistical decisions.

Boundaries for delta, representing a "quantitatively significant" or "substantively impressive" distinction, have not been established, analogous to the boundary of alpha, usually set at 0.05, for the stochastic or probabilistic component of "statistical significance". To determine what boundaries are being used for the "quantitative" decisions, we reviewed pertinent articles in three general medical journals. For each contrast of two means, contrast of two rates, or correlation coefficient, we noted the investigators' decisions about stochastic significance, stated in P values or confidence intervals, and about quantitative significance, indicated by interpretive comments. The boundaries between impressive and unimpressive distinctions were best formed by a ratio of greater than or equal to 1.2 for the smaller to the larger mean in 546 comparisons, by a standardized increment of greater than or equal to 0.28 and odds ratio of greater than or equal to 2.2 in 392 comparisons of two rates; and by an r value of greater than or equal to 0.32 in 154 correlation coefficients. Additional boundaries were also identified for "substantially" and "highly" significant quantitative distinctions. Although the proposed boundaries should be kept flexible, indexes and boundaries for decisions about "quantitative significance" are particularly useful when a value of delta must be chosen for calculating sample size before the research is done, and when the "statistical significance" of completed research is appraised for its quantitative as well as stochastic components.