Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock- Bond Correlation

Abstract: We analyze the realized stock-bond correlation. Gradual transitions between negative and positive stock-bond correlation is accommodated by the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The changes in regime are de…ned by economic and …financial transition variables. Both in sample and out-of- sample results document that STR models with multiple transition variables outperform STR models with a single transition variable. The most important transition variables are the short rate, the yield spread, and the VIX volatility index. Keywords: realized correlation; smooth transition regressions; stock-bond correlation; VIX index JEL Classifi…cations: C22; G11; G12; G17

Growth, unemployment and wage inertia

We introduce wage setting via efficiency wages in the neoclassical one-sector growth model to study the growth effects of wage inertia. We compare the dynamic equilibrium of an economy with wage inertia with the equilibrium of an economy without wage inertia. We show that wage inertia affects the long run employment rate and that the transitional dynamics of the main economic variables will be different because wages are a state variable when wage inertia is introduced. In particular, we show non-monotonic transitions in the economy with wage inertia that do not arise in the economy with flexible wages. We also study the growth effects of permanent technological and fiscal policy shocks in these two economies. During the transition, the growth effects of technological shocks obtained when wages exhibit inertia may be the opposite from the ones obtained when wages are flexible. In the long run, these technological shocks may have long run effects if there is wage inertia. We also show that the growth effects of fiscal policies will be delayed when there is wage inertia.

Genetic Structure of Triatoma sordida (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) Domestic Populations from Bolivia: Application on Control Interventions

The genetic population of Triatoma sordida group 1, a secondary vector of Chagas disease in Bolivia, was studied by multi-locus enzyme electrophoresis. A total of 253 nymphal and adult specimens collected from seven neighbouring localities in the Velasco Province, Department of Santa Cruz, were processed. The relatively low genetic variability was confirmed for this species (rate of polymorphism: 0.20). The absence of genetic disequilibrium detected within the seven localities was demonstrated. A geographical structuration appears between localities with distances greater than 20 km apart. Although T. sordida presents a relatively reduced dispersive capacity, its panmictic unit is wider than compared with T. infestans. Genetic distances between T. sordida populations were correlated with geographic distance. Gene flow between geographic populations of T. sordida provides an efficient framework for effective vigilance and control protocols.

Estimation of glomerular filtration rate in hospitalised patients: are we overestimating renal function?

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY AND PRINCIPLES: Estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in hospitalised patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is important for drug prescription but it remains a difficult task. The purpose of this study was to investigate the reliability of selected algorithms based on serum creatinine, cystatin C and beta-trace protein to estimate GFR and the potential added advantage of measuring muscle mass by bioimpedance. In a prospective unselected group of patients hospitalised in a general internal medicine ward with CKD, GFR was evaluated using inulin clearance as the gold standard and the algorithms of Cockcroft, MDRD, Larsson (cystatin C), White (beta-trace) and MacDonald (creatinine and muscle mass by bioimpedance). 69 patients were included in the study. Median age (interquartile range) was 80 years (73-83); weight 74.7 kg (67.0-85.6), appendicular lean mass 19.1 kg (14.9-22.3), serum creatinine 126 μmol/l (100-149), cystatin C 1.45 mg/l (1.19-1.90), beta-trace protein 1.17 mg/l (0.99-1.53) and GFR measured by inulin 30.9 ml/min (22.0-43.3). The errors in the estimation of GFR and the area under the ROC curves (95% confidence interval) relative to inulin were respectively: Cockcroft 14.3 ml/min (5.55-23.2) and 0.68 (0.55-0.81), MDRD 16.3 ml/min (6.4-27.5) and 0.76 (0.64-0.87), Larsson 12.8 ml/min (4.50-25.3) and 0.82 (0.72-0.92), White 17.6 ml/min (11.5-31.5) and 0.75 (0.63-0.87), MacDonald 32.2 ml/min (13.9-45.4) and 0.65 (0.52-0.78). Currently used algorithms overestimate GFR in hospitalised patients with CKD. As a consequence eGFR targeted prescriptions of renal-cleared drugs, might expose patients to overdosing. The best results were obtained with the Larsson algorithm. The determination of muscle mass by bioimpedance did not provide significant contributions.

A gamma camera count rate saturation correction method for whole-body planar imaging.

Whole-body (WB) planar imaging has long been one of the staple methods of dosimetry, and its quantification has been formalized by the MIRD Committee in pamphlet no 16. One of the issues not specifically addressed in the formalism occurs when the count rates reaching the detector are sufficiently high to result in camera count saturation. Camera dead-time effects have been extensively studied, but all of the developed correction methods assume static acquisitions. However, during WB planar (sweep) imaging, a variable amount of imaged activity exists in the detector's field of view as a function of time and therefore the camera saturation is time dependent. A new time-dependent algorithm was developed to correct for dead-time effects during WB planar acquisitions that accounts for relative motion between detector heads and imaged object. Static camera dead-time parameters were acquired by imaging decaying activity in a phantom and obtaining a saturation curve. Using these parameters, an iterative algorithm akin to Newton's method was developed, which takes into account the variable count rate seen by the detector as a function of time. The algorithm was tested on simulated data as well as on a whole-body scan of high activity Samarium-153 in an ellipsoid phantom. A complete set of parameters from unsaturated phantom data necessary for count rate to activity conversion was also obtained, including build-up and attenuation coefficients, in order to convert corrected count rate values to activity. The algorithm proved successful in accounting for motion- and time-dependent saturation effects in both the simulated and measured data and converged to any desired degree of precision. The clearance half-life calculated from the ellipsoid phantom data was calculated to be 45.1 h after dead-time correction and 51.4 h with no correction; the physical decay half-life of Samarium-153 is 46.3 h. Accurate WB planar dosimetry of high activities relies on successfully compensating for camera saturation which takes into account the variable activity in the field of view, i.e. time-dependent dead-time effects. The algorithm presented here accomplishes this task.

Design of Novel Frequency Generation Circuit with Application to Ultra-Wideband Distributed Oscillators

Given the urgence of a new paradigm in wireless digital trasmission which should allow for higher bit rate, lower latency and tigher delay constaints, it has been proposed to investigate the fundamental building blocks that at the circuital/device level, will boost the change towards a more efficient network architecture, with high capacity, higher bandwidth and a more satisfactory end user experience. At the core of each transciever, there are inherently analog devices capable of providing the carrier signal, the oscillators. It is strongly believed that many limitations in today's communication protocols, could be relieved by permitting high carrier frequency radio transmission, and having some degree of reconfigurability. This led us to studying distributed oscillator architectures which work in the microwave range and possess wideband tuning capability. As microvave oscillators are essentially nonlinear devices, a full nonlinear analyis, synthesis, and optimization had to be considered for their implementation. Consequently, all the most used nonlinear numerical techniques in commercial EDA software had been reviewed. An application of all the aforementioned techniques has been shown, considering a systems of three coupled oscillator ("triple push" oscillator) in which the stability of the various oscillating modes has been studied. Provided that a certain phase distribution is maintained among the oscillating elements, this topology permits a rise in the output power of the third harmonic; nevertheless due to circuit simmetry, "unwanted" oscillating modes coexist with the intenteded one. Starting with the necessary background on distributed amplification and distributed oscillator theory, the design of a four stage reverse mode distributed voltage controlled oscillator (DVCO) using lumped elments has been presented. All the design steps have been reported and for the first time a method for an optimized design with reduced variations in the output power has been presented. Ongoing work is devoted to model a wideband DVCO and to implement a frequency divider.

Application of control measures for infections caused by multi-resistant gram-negative bacteria in intensive care unit patients

Multi-resistant gram-negative rods are important pathogens in intensive care units (ICU), cause high rates of mortality, and need infection control measures to avoid spread to another patients. This study was undertaken prospectively with all of the patients hospitalized at ICU, Anesthesiology of the Hospital São Paulo, using the ICU component of the National Nosocomial Infection Surveillance System (NNIS) methodology, between March 1, 1997 and June 30, 1998. Hospital infections occurring during the first three months after the establishment of prevention and control measures (3/1/97 to 5/31/97) were compared to those of the last three months (3/1/98 to 5/31/98). In this period, 933 NNIS patients were studied, with 139 during the first period and 211 in the second period. The overall rates of infection by multi-resistant microorganisms in the first and second periods were, respectively, urinary tract infection: 3.28/1000 patients/day; 2.5/1000 patients/day; pneumonia: 2.10/1000 patients/day; 5.0/1000 patients/day; bloodstream infection: 1.09/1000 patients/day; 2.5/1000 patients/day. A comparison between overall infection rates of both periods (Wilcoxon test) showed no statistical significance (p = 0.067). The use of intervention measures effectively decreased the hospital bloodstream infection rate (p < 0.001), which shows that control measures in ICU can contribute to preventing hospital infections.

Optimization of treatment with interferon beta in multiple sclerosis. Usefulness of automatic system application criteria

Background. A software based tool has been developed (Optem) to allow automatize the recommendations of the Canadian Multiple Sclerosis Working Group for optimizing MS treatment in order to avoid subjective interpretation. METHODS: Treatment Optimization Recommendations (TORs) were applied to our database of patients treated with IFN beta1a IM. Patient data were assessed during year 1 for disease activity, and patients were assigned to 2 groups according to TOR: "change treatment" (CH) and "no change treatment" (NCH). These assessments were then compared to observed clinical outcomes for disease activity over the following years. RESULTS: We have data on 55 patients. The "change treatment" status was assigned to 22 patients, and "no change treatment" to 33 patients. The estimated sensitivity and specificity according to last visit status were 73.9% and 84.4%. During the following years, the Relapse Rate was always higher in the "change treatment" group than in the "no change treatment" group (5 y; CH: 0.7, NCH: 0.07; p < 0.001, 12 m - last visit; CH: 0.536, NCH: 0.34). We obtained the same results with the EDSS (4 y; CH: 3.53, NCH: 2.55, annual progression rate in 12 m - last visit; CH: 0.29, NCH: 0.13). CONCLUSION: Applying TOR at the first year of therapy allowed accurate prediction of continued disease activity in relapses and disability progression.

How to Measure Scope Variables when no Metrics Exist : Application to Landscape Quality Measurement and Hedonic Price Evaluation

Landscape is an example of a non-market good where no metrics exist to measure its quality. The paper proposes an original methodology to nevertheless estimate scope variables in those circumstances, allowing then to better test if people's willingnesstopay for such good is sensitive to the scope. The methodology is based on techniques developed in the context of multicriteria decision analysis. It is applied to assess the quality of the landscape of several Swiss alpine resorts. This assessment is then used as an explanatory variable in a hedonic price function to explain the rent of apartments and to derive an implicit price of the landscape quality.

Correcting non cephalic presentation with moxibustion: study protocol for a multi-centre randomised controlled trial in general practice.

BACKGROUND Non cephalic presentation in childbirth involves various risks to both the mother and the foetus. The incidence in Spain is 3.8% of all full-term pregnancies. The most common technique used to end the gestation in cases of non cephalic presentation is that of caesarian section, and although it provokes a lower rate of morbi-mortality than does vaginal delivery in such situations, there remains the possibility of traumatic injury to the foetal head and neck, while maternal morbidity is also increased. The application of heat (moxibustion) to an acupuncture point, in order to correct non cephalic presentation, has been practised in China since ancient times, but as yet there is insufficient evidence of its real effectiveness. METHODS/DESIGN The experimental design consists of a multi-centre randomised controlled trial with three parallel arms, used to compare real moxibustion, sham moxibustion and the natural course of events, among pregnant women with a non cephalic presentation and a gestational duration of 33-35 weeks (estimated by echography). The participants in the trial will be blinded to both interventions. The results obtained will be analyzed by professionals, blinded with respect to the allocation to the different types of intervention. In addition, we intend to carry out a economic analysis. DISCUSSION This trial will contribute to the development of evidence concerning moxibustion in the correction of non cephalic presentations. The primary outcome variable is the proportion of cephalic presentations at term. As secondary outcomes, we will evaluate the proportion of cephalic presentations at week 38 of gestation, determined by echography, together with the safety of the technique, the specificity of moxibustion and the control of the blinding process. This study has been funded by the Health Ministry of the Andalusian Regional Government. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN10634508.

Iowa Crime Rate Comparisons Report, Iowa Department of Public Safety,1999

This report describes how Iowa compares to other states in the nation. To promote consistency, the Iowa totals and the other states’ information have been taken entirely from the FBI’s national publication called Crime in the United States; 1999. The Iowa information in Crime in the United States; 1999 is based upon actual summary totals for selected reporting jurisdictions and produced by the U.S. Department of Justice, F.B.I. These Iowa totals cannot be compared to the 1999 Incident-Based Iowa Uniform Crime Reports, which are based on actual totals for all reporting Iowa law enforcement jurisdictions.

Iowa Crime Rate Comparisons Report, 2000

This report describes how Iowa compares to other states in the nation. To promote consistency, the Iowa totals and the other states’ information have been taken entirely from the FBI’s national publication called Crime in the United States; 2000. The Iowa information in Crime in the United States; 2000 is based upon actual summary totals for selected reporting jurisdictions and produced by the U.S. Department of Justice, F.B.I. These Iowa totals cannot be compared to the 2000 Incident-Based Iowa Uniform Crime reports, which are based on actual totals for all reporting Iowa law enforcement jurisdictions.

Iowa Crime Rate Comparisons Report, Iowa Department of Public Safety, 2001

This report describes how Iowa compares to other states in the nation. To promote consistency, the Iowa totals and the other states’ information have been taken entirely from the FBI’s national publication called Crime in the United States; 2001. The Iowa information in Crime in the United States; 2001 is based upon actual summary totals for selected reporting jurisdictions and produced by the U.S. Department of Justice, F.B.I. These Iowa totals cannot be compared to the 2001 Incident-Based Iowa Uniform Crime Reports, which are based on actual totals for all reporting Iowa law enforcement jurisdictions.

Iowa Crime Rate Comparisons Report, Iowa Department of Public Safety,1998

This report describes how Iowa compares to other states in the nation. To promote consistency, the Iowa totals and the other states’ information have been taken entirely from the FBI’s national publication called Crime in the United States; 1998. The Iowa information in Crime in the United States; 1998 is based upon actual summary totals for selected reporting jurisdictions and produced by the U.S. Department of Justice, F.B.I. These Iowa totals cannot be compared to the 1998 Incident-Based Iowa Uniform Crime Reports which are based on actual totals for all reporting Iowa law enforcement jurisdictions.

Application of low temperature thermochronology to understanding cooling and exhumation in the Central Swiss Alps

THESIS ABSTRACT : Low-temperature thermochronology relies on application of radioisotopic systems whose closure temperatures are below temperatures at which the dated phases are formed. In that sense, the results are interpreted as "cooling ages" in contrast to "formation ages". Owing to the low closure-temperatures, it is possible to reconstruct exhumation and cooling paths of rocks during their residence at shallow levels of the crust, i.e. within first ~10 km of depth. Processes occurring at these shallow depths such as final exhumation, faulting and relief formation are fundamental for evolution of the mountain belts. This thesis aims at reconstructing the tectono-thermal history of the Aar massif in the Central Swiss Alps by means of zircon (U-Th)/He, apatite (U-Th)/He and apatite fission track thermochronology. The strategy involved acquisition of a large number of samples from a wide range of elevations in the deeply incised Lötschen valley and a nearby NEAT tunnel. This unique location allowed to precisely constrain timing, amount and mechanisms of exhumation of the main orographic feature of the Central Alps, evaluate the role of topography on the thermochronological record and test the impact of hydrothermal activity. Samples were collected from altitudes ranging between 650 and 3930 m and were grouped into five vertical profiles on the surface and one horizontal in the tunnel. Where possible, all three radiometric systems were applied to each sample. Zircon (U-Th)/He ages range from 5.1 to 9.4 Ma and are generally positively correlated with altitude. Age-elevation plots reveal a distinct break in slope, which translates into exhumation rate increasing from ~0.4 to ~3 km/Ma at 6 Ma. This acceleration is independently confirmed by increased cooling rates on the order of 100°C/Ma constrained on the basis of age differences between the zircon (U-Th)/He and the remaining systems. Apatite fission track data also plot on a steep age-elevation curve indicating rapid exhumation until the end of the Miocene. The 6 Ma event is interpreted as reflecting tectonically driven uplift of the Aar massif. The late Miocene timing implies that the increase of precipitation in the Pliocene did not trigger rapid exhumation in the Aar massif. The Messinian salinity crisis in the Mediterranean could not directly intensify erosion of the Aar but associated erosional output from the entire Alps may have tapered the orogenic wedge and caused reactivation of thrusting in the Aar massif. The high exhumation rates in the Messinian were followed by a decrease to ~1.3 km/Ma as evidenced by ~8 km of exhumation during last 6 Ma. The slowing of exhumation is also apparent from apatite (U-Th)1He age-elevation data in the northern part of the Lötschen valley where they plot on a ~0.5km/Ma line and range from 2.4 to 6.4 Ma However, from the apatite (U-Th)/He and fission track data from the NEAT tunnel, there is an indication of a perturbation of the record. The apatite ages are youngest under the axis of the valley, in contrast to an expected pattern where they would be youngest in the deepest sections of the tunnel due to heat advection into ridges. The valley however, developed in relatively soft schists while the ridges are built of solid granitoids. In line with hydrological observations from the tunnel, we suggest that the relatively permeable rocks under the valley floor, served as conduits of geothermal fluids that caused reheating leading to partial Helium loss and fission track annealing in apatites. In consequence, apatite ages from the lowermost samples are too young and the calculated exhumation rates may underestimate true values. This study demonstrated that high-density sampling is indispensable to provide meaningful thermochronological data in the Alpine setting. The multi-system approach allows verifying plausibility of the data and highlighting sources of perturbation. RÉSUMÉ DE THÈSE : La thermochronologie de basse température dépend de l'utilisation de systèmes radiométriques dont la température de fermeture est nettement inférieure à la température de cristallisation du minéral. Les résultats obtenus sont par conséquent interprétés comme des âges de refroidissement qui diffèrent des âges de formation obtenus par le biais d'autres systèmes de datation. Grâce aux températures de refroidissement basses, il est aisé de reconstruire les chemins de refroidissement et d'exhumation des roches lors de leur résidence dans la croute superficielle (jusqu'à 10 km). Les processus qui entrent en jeu à ces faibles profondeurs tels que l'exhumation finale, la fracturation et le faillage ainsi que la formation du relief sont fondamentaux dans l'évolution des chaînes de montagne. Ces dernières années, il est devenu clair que l'enregistrement thermochronologique dans les orogènes peut être influencé par le relief et réinitialisé par l'advection de la chaleur liée à la circulation de fluides géothermaux après le refroidissement initial. L'objectif de cette thèse est de reconstruire l'histoire tectono-thermique du massif de l'Aar dans les Alpes suisses Centrales à l'aide de trois thermochronomètres; (U-Th)/He sur zircon, (U-Th)/He sur apatite et les traces de fission sur apatite. Afin d'atteindre cet objectif, nous avons récolté un grand nombre d'échantillons provenant de différentes altitudes dans la vallée fortement incisée de Lötschental ainsi que du tunnel de NEAT. Cette stratégie d'échantillonnage nous a permis de contraindre de manière précise la chronologie, les quantités et les mécanismes d'exhumation de cette zone des Alpes Centrales, d'évaluer le rôle de la topographie sur l'enregistrement thermochronologique et de tester l'impact de l'hydrothermalisme sur les géochronomètres. Les échantillons ont été prélevés à des altitudes comprises entre 650 et 3930m selon 5 profils verticaux en surface et un dans le tunnel. Quand cela à été possible, les trois systèmes radiométriques ont été appliqués aux échantillons. Les âges (U-Th)\He obtenus sur zircons sont compris entre 5.l et 9.4 Ma et sont corrélés de manière positive avec l'altitude. Les graphiques représentant l'âge et l'élévation montrent une nette rupture de la pente qui traduisent un accroissement de la vitesse d'exhumation de 0.4 à 3 km\Ma il y a 6 Ma. Cette accélération de l'exhumation est confirmée par les vitesses de refroidissement de l'ordre de 100°C\Ma obtenus à partir des différents âges sur zircons et à partir des autres systèmes géochronologiques. Les données obtenues par traces de fission sur apatite nous indiquent également une exhumation rapide jusqu'à la fin du Miocène. Nous interprétons cet évènement à 6 Ma comme étant lié à l'uplift tectonique du massif de l'Aar. Le fait que cet évènement soit tardi-miocène implique qu'une augmentation des précipitations au Pliocène n'a pas engendré cette exhumation rapide du massif de l'Aar. La crise Messinienne de la mer méditerranée n'a pas pu avoir une incidence directe sur l'érosion du massif de l'Aar mais l'érosion associée à ce phénomène à pu réduire le coin orogénique alpin et causer la réactivation des chevauchements du massif de l'Aar. L'exhumation rapide Miocène a été suivie pas une diminution des taux d'exhumation lors des derniers 6 Ma (jusqu'à 1.3 km\Ma). Cependant, les âges (U-Th)\He sur apatite ainsi que les traces de fission sur apatite des échantillons du tunnel enregistrent une perturbation de l'enregistrement décrit ci-dessus. Les âges obtenus sur les apatites sont sensiblement plus jeunes sous l'axe de la vallée en comparaison du profil d'âges attendus. En effet, on attendrait des âges plus jeunes sous les parties les plus profondes du tunnel à cause de l'advection de la chaleur dans les flancs de la vallée. La vallée est creusée dans des schistes alors que les flancs de celle-ci sont constitués de granitoïdes plus durs. En accord avec les observations hydrologiques du tunnel, nous suggérons que la perméabilité élevée des roches sous l'axe de la vallée à permi l'infiltration de fluides géothermaux qui a généré un réchauffement des roches. Ce réchauffement aurait donc induit une perte d'Hélium et un recuit des traces de fission dans les apatites. Ceci résulterait en un rajeunissement des âges apatite et en une sous-estimation des vitesses d'exhumation sous l'axe de la vallée. Cette étude à servi à démontrer la nécessité d'un échantillonnage fin et précis afin d'apporter des données thermochronologiques de qualité dans le contexte alpin. Cette approche multi-système nous a permi de contrôler la pertinence des données acquises ainsi que d'identifier les sources possibles d'erreurs lors d'études thermochronologiques. RÉSUMÉ LARGE PUBLIC Lors d'une orogenèse, les roches subissent un cycle comprenant une subduction, de la déformation, du métamorphisme et, finalement, un retour à la surface (ou exhumation). L'exhumation résulte de la déformation au sein de la zone de collision, menant à un raccourcissement et un apaissessement de l'édifice rocheux, qui se traduit par une remontée des roches, création d'une topographie et érosion. Puisque l'érosion agit comme un racloir sur la partie supérieure de l'édifice, des tentatives de corrélation entre les épisodes d'exhumation rapide et les périodes d'érosion intensive, dues aux changements climatiques, ont été effectuées. La connaissance de la chronologie et du lieu précis est d'une importance capitale pour une quelconque reconstruction de l'évolution d'une chaîne de montagne. Ces critères sont donnés par un retraçage des changements de la température de la roche en fonction du temps, nous donnant le taux de refroidissement. L'instant auquel les roches ont refroidit, passant une certaine température, est contraint par l'application de techniques de datation par radiométrie. Ces méthodes reposent sur la désintégration des isotopes radiogéniques, tels que l'uranium et le potassium, tous deux abondants dans les roches de la croûte terrestre. Les produits de cette désintégration ne sont pas retenus dans les minéraux hôtes jusqu'au moment du refroidissement de la roche sous une température appelée 'de fermeture' , spécifique à chaque système de datation. Par exemple, la désintégration radioactive des atomes d'uranium et de thorium produit des atomes d'hélium qui s'échappent d'un cristal de zircon à des températures supérieures à 200°C. En mesurant la teneur en uranium-parent, l'hélium accumulé et en connaissant le taux de désintégration, il est possible de calculer à quel moment la roche échantillonnée est passée sous la température de 200°C. Si le gradient géothermal est connu, les températures de fermeture peuvent être converties en profondeurs actuelles (p. ex. 200°C ≈ 7km), et le taux de refroidissement en taux d'exhumation. De plus, en datant par système radiométrique des échantillons espacés verticalement, il est possible de contraindre directement le taux d'exhumation de la section échantillonnée en observant les différences d'âges entre des échantillons voisins. Dans les Alpes suisses, le massif de l'Aar forme une structure orographique majeure. Avec des altitudes supérieures à 4000m et un relief spectaculaire de plus de 2000m, le massif domine la partie centrale de la chaîne de montagne. Les roches aujourd'hui exposées à la surface ont été enfouies à plus de 10 km de profond il y a 20 Ma, mais la topographie actuelle du massif de l'Aar semble surtout s'être développée par un soulèvement actif depuis quelques millions d'années, c'est-à-dire depuis le Néogène supérieur. Cette période comprend un changement climatique soudain ayant touché l'Europe il y a environ 5 Ma et qui a occasionné de fortes précipitations, entraînant certainement une augmentation de l'érosion et accélérant l'exhumation des Alpes. Dans cette étude, nous avons employé le système de datation (U-TH)/He sur zircon, dont la température de fermeture de 200°C est suffisamment basse pour caractériser l'exhumation du Néogène sup. /Pliocène. Les échantillons proviennent du Lötschental et du tunnel ferroviaire le plus profond du monde (NEAT) situé dans la partie ouest du massif de l'Aar. Considérés dans l'ensemble, ces échantillons se répartissent sur un dénivelé de 3000m et des âges de 5.1 à 9.4 Ma. Les échantillons d'altitude supérieure (et donc plus vieux) documentent un taux d'exhumation de 0.4 km/Ma jusqu'à il y a 6 Ma, alors que les échantillons situés les plus bas ont des âges similaires allant de 6 à 5.4 Ma, donnant un taux jusqu'à 3km /Ma. Ces données montrent une accélération dramatique de l'exhumation du massif de l'Aar il y a 6 Ma. L'exhumation miocène sup. du massif prédate donc le changement climatique Pliocène. Cependant, lors de la crise de salinité d'il y a 6-5.3 Ma (Messinien), le niveau de la mer Méditerranée est descendu de 3km. Un tel abaissement de la surface d'érosion peut avoir accéléré l'exhumation des Alpes, mais le bassin sud alpin était trop loin du massif de l'Aar pour influencer son érosion. Nous arrivons à la conclusion que la datation (U-Th)/He permet de contraindre précisément la chronologie et l'exhumation du massif de l'Aar. Concernant la dualité tectonique-érosion, nous suggérons que, dans le cas du massif de l'Aar, la tectonique prédomine.