Els errors en les relacions assistencials: una aproximació des de la bioètica

De manera general, cal tenir present quel'error és habitual en els sistemes complexos, com la biologia ens ho ensenya ja a nivell cel·lular: els errors en la replicació de l'ADN els anomenem mutacions i pel que sabem han jugat i juguen un rol fonamental en l'evolució de les espècies vivents. L'error, per tant, és omnipresenten els organismes vivents; però, a diferènciade les màquines artificials, els organismesvivents poden funcionar amb l¿error i malgratl¿error.

A theoretical and practical study on linear reforms of dual taxes

[cat] En aquest treball extenem les reformes lineals introduïdes per Pfähler (1984) al cas d’impostos duals. Estudiem l’efecte relatiu que els retalls lineals duals d’un impost dual tenen sobre la distribució de la desigualtat -es pot fer un estudi simètric per al cas d’augments d’impostos-. Tambe introduïm mesures del grau de progressivitat d’impostos duals i mostrem que estan connectades amb el criteri de dominació de Lorenz. Addicionalment, estudiem l’elasticitat de la càrrega fiscal de cadascuna de les reformes proposades. Finalment, gràcies a un model de microsimulació i una gran base de dades que conté informació sobre l’IRPF espanyol de l’any 2004, 1) comparem l’efecte que diferents reformes tindrien sobre l’impost dual espanyol i 2) estudiem quina redistribució de la riquesa va suposar la reforma dual de l’IRPF (Llei ’35/2006’) respecte l’anterior impost.

Low Water Stream Crossing: Design and Construction Recommendations, December 2001

Most counties have bridges that are no longer adequate, and are faced with large capital expenditure for replacement structures of the same size. In this regard, low water stream crossings (LWSCs) can provide an acceptable, low cost alternative to bridges and culverts on low volume and reduced maintenance level roads. In addition to providing a low cost option for stream crossings, LWSCs have been designed to have the additional benefit of stream bed stabilization. Considerable information on the current status of LWSCs in Iowa, along with insight of needs for design assistance, was gained from a survey of county engineers that was conducted as part of this research (Appendix A). Copies of responses and analysis are included in Appendix B. This document provides guidelines for the design of LWSCs. There are three common types of LWSCs: unvented ford, vented ford with pipes, and low water bridges. Selection among these depends on stream geometry, discharge, importance of road, and budget availability. To minimize exposure to tort liability, local agencies using low water stream crossings should consider adopting reasonable selection and design criteria and certainly provide adequate warning of these structures to road users. The design recommendations included in this report for LWSCs provide guidelines and suggestions for local agency reference. Several design examples of design calculations are included in Appendix E.

Interstate Highway Map Indicating Vertical Clearance, May 15, 2011

The State of Iowa [STATE] and the Iowa Department of Transportation [IDOT] hereby is claim any warranty of any kind, express or implied, in reference to the information contained herein. The STATE and the IDOT neither assume nor authorize any person to assume for the STATE or the IDOT any liability in connection with the information contained herein, and there are no oral agreements or warranties regarding the information contained herein. Each and every person is hereby notified that the vertical clearances specified herein are subject to change due to resurfacing, surface buckling, weather conditions, or any other event. It is the responsibility of each and every vehicle operator to ascertain whether sufficient ACTUAL vertical clearance exists to move his vehicle or motor vehicle between the roadway and the underpasses and bridges listed herein. The May 15 date on this map reflects the end of the update schedule for the previous calendar year. Any vertical clearance restrictions which could or may change AFTER this date will not be reflected on this map. For the latest information on vertical clearance restrictions call the Office of Motor Carrier Services in Ankeny, (515) 237-3264 or visit http://www.iowadot.gov/mvd/omcs.

Predictors of onset of cannabis and other drug use in male young adults: results from a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: The use of cannabis and other illegal drugs is particularly prevalent in male young adults and is associated with severe health problems. This longitudinal study explored variables associated with the onset of cannabis use and the onset of illegal drug use other than cannabis separately in male young adults, including demographics, religion and religiosity, health, social context, substance use, and personality. Furthermore, we explored how far the gateway hypothesis and the common liability to addiction model are in line with the resulting prediction models. METHODS: The data were gathered within the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF). Young men aged around 20 years provided demographic, social, health, substance use, and personality-related data at baseline. Onset of cannabis and other drug use were assessed at 15-months follow-up. Samples of 2,774 and 4,254 individuals who indicated at baseline that they have not used cannabis and other drugs, respectively, in their life and who provided follow-up data were used for the prediction models. Hierarchical logistic stepwise regressions were conducted, in order to identify predictors of the late onset of cannabis and other drug use separately. RESULTS: Not providing for oneself, having siblings, depressiveness, parental divorce, lower parental knowledge of peers and the whereabouts, peer pressure, very low nicotine dependence, and sensation seeking were positively associated with the onset of cannabis use. Practising religion was negatively associated with the onset of cannabis use. Onset of drug use other than cannabis showed a positive association with depressiveness, antisocial personality disorder, lower parental knowledge of peers and the whereabouts, psychiatric problems of peers, problematic cannabis use, and sensation seeking. CONCLUSIONS: Consideration of the predictor variables identified within this study may help to identify young male adults for whom preventive measures for cannabis or other drug use are most appropriate. The results provide evidence for both the gateway hypothesis and the common liability to addiction model and point to further variables like depressiveness or practising of religion that might influence the onset of drug use.

On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.

Essays on the treatment of cash flows under stochastic interest rates

Abstract This paper shows how to calculate recursively the moments of the accumulated and discounted value of cash flows when the instantaneous rates of return follow a conditional ARMA process with normally distributed innovations. We investigate various moment based approaches to approximate the distribution of the accumulated value of cash flows and we assess their performance through stochastic Monte-Carlo simulations. We discuss the potential use in insurance and especially in the context of Asset-Liability Management of pension funds.

Signing on Very Low Volume Rurd Roads Iowa DOT Project HR-262, July, 1984

Research was undertaken to define an appropriate level of use of traffic control devices on rural secondary roads that carry very low traffic volumes. The goal of this research was to improve the safety and efficiency of travel on the rural secondary road system. This goal was to be accomplished by providing County Engineers with guidance concerning the cost-effective use of traffic control devices on very low volume rural roads. A further objective was to define the range of traffic volumes on the roads for which the recommendations would be appropriate. Little previous research has been directed toward roads that carry very low traffic volumes. Consequently, the factual input for this research was developed by conducting an inventory of the signs and markings actually in use on 2,069 miles of rural road in Iowa. Most of these roads carried 15 or fewer vehicles per day. Additional input was provided by a survey of the opinions of County Engineers and Supervisors in Iowa. Data from both the inventory and the opinion survey indicated a considerable lack of uniformity in the application of signs on very low volume rural roads. The number of warning signs installed varied from 0.24 per mile to 3.85 per mile in the 21 counties in which the inventory was carried out. The use of specific signs not only varied quite widely among counties but also indicated a lack of uniform application within counties. County officials generally favored varying the elaborateness of signing depending upon the type of surface and the volume of traffic on different roads. Less elaborate signing would be installed on an unpaved road than on a paved road. A concensus opinion was that roads carrying fewer than 25 vehicles per day should have fewer signs than roads carrying higher volumes. Although roads carrying 0 to 24 vehicles per day constituted over 24% of the total rural secondary system, they carried less than 3% of the total travel on that system. Virtually all of these roads are classified as area service roads and would thus be expected to carry only short trips primarily by local motorists. Consequently, it was concluded that the need for warning signs rarely can be demonstrated on unpaved rural roads with traffic volumes of fewer than 25 vehicles per day. It is recommended that each county designate a portion of its roads as an Area Service Level B system. All road segments with very low traffic volumes should be considered for inclusion in this system. Roads included in this system may receive a lesser level of maintenance and a reduced level of signing. The county is also afforded protection from liability arising from accidents occurring on roads designated as part of an Area Service Level B system. A uniform absence of warning signs on roads of this nature is not expected to have any discernible effect on the safety or quality of service on these very low volume roads. The resources conserved may be expended more effectively to upgrade maintenance and traffic control on roads carrying higher volumes where the beneficial effect on highway safety and service will be much more consequential.

Low Water Stream Crossing: Design and Construction Recommendations, Decemeber 2001

Most counties have bridges that are no longer adequate, and are faced with large capital expenditure for replacement structures of the same size. In this regard, low water stream crossings (LWSCs) can provide an acceptable, low cost alternative to bridges and culverts on low volume and reduced maintenance level roads. In addition to providing a low cost option for stream crossings, LWSCs have been designed to have the additional benefit of streambed stabilization. Considerable information on the current status of LWSCs in Iowa, along with insight of needs for design assistance, was gained from a survey of county engineers that was conducted as part of this research (Appendix A). Copies of responses and analysis are included in Appendix B. This document provides guidelines for the design of LWSCs. There are three common types of LWSCs: unvented ford, vented ford with pipes, and low water bridges. Selection among these depends on stream geometry, discharge, importance of road, and budget availability. To minimize exposure to tort liability, local agencies using low water stream crossings should consider adopting reasonable selection and design criteria and certainly provide adequate warning of these structures to road users. The design recommendations included in this report for LWSCs provide guidelines and suggestions for local agency reference. Several design examples of design calculations are included in Appendix E.

Roadway Design Standards for Rural and Suburban Subdivisions Final Report, June 2007

In Iowa, there are currently no uniform design standards for rural and suburban subdivision development roadways. Without uniform design standards, many counties are unable to provide adequate guidance for public facilities, particularly roadways, to be constructed as part of a rural subdivision development. If a developer is not required to install appropriate public improvements or does not do so properly, significant liability and maintenance expenses can be expected, along with the potential for major project costs to correct the situation. Not having uniform design standards for rural and suburban subdivision development improvements in Iowa creates situations where there is potential for inconsistency and confusion. Differences in the way development standards are applied also create incentives or disincentives for developers to initiate subdivision platting in a particular county. With the wide range of standards or lack of standards for local roads in development areas, it is critical that some level of uniformity is created to address equity in development across jurisdictional lines. The standards must be effective in addressing the problem, but they must not be so excessive as to curtail development activities within a local jurisdiction. In order to address the concerns, cities and counties have to work together to identify where growth is going to be focused. Within that long-term growth area, the roadways should be constructed to urban standards to provide an easier transition to traditional urban facilities as the area is developed. Developments outside of the designated growth area should utilize a rural cross section since it is less likely to have concentrated urban development. The developers should be required to develop roadways that are designed for a minimum life of 40 years, and the county should accept dedication of the roadway and be responsible for its maintenance.

A theoretical and practical study on linear reforms of dual taxes

[cat] En aquest treball extenem les reformes lineals introduïdes per Pfähler (1984) al cas d’impostos duals. Estudiem l’efecte relatiu que els retalls lineals duals d’un impost dual tenen sobre la distribució de la desigualtat -es pot fer un estudi simètric per al cas d’augments d’impostos-. Tambe introduïm mesures del grau de progressivitat d’impostos duals i mostrem que estan connectades amb el criteri de dominació de Lorenz. Addicionalment, estudiem l’elasticitat de la càrrega fiscal de cadascuna de les reformes proposades. Finalment, gràcies a un model de microsimulació i una gran base de dades que conté informació sobre l’IRPF espanyol de l’any 2004, 1) comparem l’efecte que diferents reformes tindrien sobre l’impost dual espanyol i 2) estudiem quina redistribució de la riquesa va suposar la reforma dual de l’IRPF (Llei ’35/2006’) respecte l’anterior impost.

Scapulalgie et neuropathie sus-scapulaire en pathologie sportive [Scapular pain and supra-scapular neuropathy in sports medicine]

Eight patients with shoulder pain are reported with a history of athletic activities. On examination, performed with a delay of several months, all patients had painful paresis and atrophy of spinati fossa. Electroneuromyography was carried out in all cases and showed a suprascapular nerve axonal loss from the spinati muscles or infraspinatus muscle, signs of denervation-reinnervation in spinati or infraspinatus muscles, normal examination of other scapular girdle muscles, and a coordinate spinati contraction with shoulder displacement excluding rotator cuff tears. All patients had conservative treatment and only two improved. Six patients underwent surgical decompression of the suprascapular nerve; in three, motor function clearly improved, and in three others pain improved. The factors leading to entrapment include stretch mechanisms associated with shoulder movements, leading to suprascapular nerve liability to mechanical lesions. In patients with shoulder pain, the authors recommend an early electrophysiological work-up to recognize an isolated suprascapular neuropathy. The surgical decompression of the nerve should be based on persistent shoulder pain after conservative treatment.

Temperature-dependent turnovers in sex-determination mechanisms: a quantitative model.

Sex determination is often seen as a dichotomous process: individual sex is assumed to be determined either by genetic (genotypic sex determination, GSD) or by environmental factors (environmental sex determination, ESD), most often temperature (temperature sex determination, TSD). We endorse an alternative view, which sees GSD and TSD as the ends of a continuum. Both effects interact a priori, because temperature can affect gene expression at any step along the sex-determination cascade. We propose to define sex-determination systems at the population- (rather than individual) level, via the proportion of variance in phenotypic sex stemming from genetic versus environmental factors, and we formalize this concept in a quantitative-genetics framework. Sex is seen as a threshold trait underlain by a liability factor, and reaction norms allow modeling interactions between genotypic and temperature effects (seen as the necessary consequences of thermodynamic constraints on the underlying physiological processes). As this formalization shows, temperature changes (due to e.g., climatic changes or range expansions) are expected to provoke turnovers in sex-determination mechanisms, by inducing large-scale sex reversal and thereby sex-ratio selection for alternative sex-determining genes. The frequency of turnovers and prevalence of homomorphic sex chromosomes in cold-blooded vertebrates might thus directly relate to the temperature dependence in sex-determination mechanisms.

La jurisdicción competente en materia de responsabilidad patrimonial de la Administración: una polémica que no cesa. Comentario a los Autos de la Sala Especial de Conflictos de Competencia del Tribunal Supremo de 27 de diciembre de 2001 y 21 de octubre de 2002 y propuesta de reforma legislativa

En el presente trabajo se comenta la línea jurisprudencial iniciada por el Auto de la Sala Especial de Conflictos de Competencia del Tribunal Supremo de 27 de diciembre de 2001, por la que se atribuye al orden civil la competencia para enjuiciar las demandas dirigidas conjuntamente contra la Administraciónpública y su aseguradora de responsabilidad extracontractual, reabriendo la polémica que parecía zanjada tras la triple reforma legislativa de 1998 y 1999, que afirmó la competencia exclusiva de la jurisdicción contencioso-administrativa para conocer de los pleitos de responsabilidad patrimonial de la Administración.

La jurisdicció competent en matèria de responsabilitat patrimonial de l'Administració: una polèmica que no acaba. Comentari a les Interlocutòries de la Sala Especial de Conflictes de Competència del Tribunal Suprem de 27 de desembre de 2001 i 21 de octubre de 2002 i proposta de reforma legislativa

En aquest treball es comenta la línia jurisprudencial iniciada per la Interlocutòria de la Sala Especial de Conflictes de Competència del Tribunal Suprem de 27 de desembre de 2001, per la qual s¿atribueix a l'orde civil la competència per jutjar les demandes dirigides conjuntament contra l'Administració pública i la seva asseguradora de responsabilitat extracontractual, reobrint la polèmica que semblava tancada després de la triple reforma legislativa de 1998 i 1999, que afirmà la competència exclusiva de la jurisdicció contenciosa administrativa per conèixer dels plets de responsabilitat patrimonial de l'Administració.