Prospective, multicenter validation of prediction scores for major bleeding in elderly patients with venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: The Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index (OBRI) and the Kuijer, RIETE and Kearon scores are clinical prognostic scores for bleeding in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We prospectively compared the performance of these scores in elderly patients with VTE. METHODS: In a prospective multicenter Swiss cohort study, we studied 663 patients aged ≥ 65 years with acute VTE. The outcome was a first major bleeding at 90 days. We classified patients into three categories of bleeding risk (low, intermediate and high) according to each score and dichotomized patients as high vs. low or intermediate risk. We calculated the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, positive predictive values and likelihood ratios for each score. RESULTS: Overall, 28 out of 663 patients (4.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8-6.0%) had a first major bleeding within 90 days. According to different scores, the rate of major bleeding varied from 1.9% to 2.1% in low-risk, from 4.2% to 5.0% in intermediate-risk and from 3.1% to 6.6% in high-risk patients. The discriminative power of the scores was poor to moderate, with areas under the ROC curve ranging from 0.49 to 0.60 (P = 0.21). The positive predictive values and positive likelihood ratios were low and varied from 3.1% to 6.6% and from 0.72 to 1.59, respectively. CONCLUSION: In elderly patients with VTE, existing bleeding risk scores do not have sufficient accuracy and power to discriminate between patients with VTE who are at a high risk of short-term major bleeding and those who are not.

Immunologic evaluation and validation of methods using synthetic peptides derived from Mycobacterium tuberculosis for the diagnosis of tuberculosis infection

The goal of this study was to demonstrate the usefulness of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for the serodiagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and extrapulmonary TB (EPTB). This assay used 20 amino acid-long, non-overlapped synthetic peptides that spanned the complete Mycobacterium tuberculosis ESAT-6 and Ag85A sequences. The validation cohort consisted of 1,102 individuals who were grouped into the following five diagnostic groups: 455 patients with PTB, 60 patients with EPTB, 40 individuals with non-EPTB, 33 individuals with leprosy and 514 healthy controls. For the PTB group, two ESAT-6 peptides (12033 and 12034) had the highest sensitivity levels of 96.9% and 96.2%, respectively, and an Ag85A-peptide (29878) was the most specific (97.4%) in the PTB groups. For the EPTB group, two Ag85A peptides (11005 and 11006) were observed to have a sensitivity of 98.3% and an Ag85A-peptide (29878) was also the most specific (96.4%). When combinations of peptides were used, such as 12033 and 12034 or 11005 and 11006, 99.5% and 100% sensitivities in the PTB and EPTB groups were observed, respectively. In conclusion, for a cohort that consists entirely of individuals from Venezuela, a multi-antigen immunoassay using highly sensitive ESAT-6 and Ag85A peptides alone and in combination could be used to more rapidly diagnose PTB and EPTB infection.

Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

Cross-validation of bioelectrical impedance analysis for the assessment of body composition in a representative sample of 6- to 13-year-old children.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: (1) To cross-validate tetra- (4-BIA) and octopolar (8-BIA) bioelectrical impedance analysis vs dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) for the assessment of total and appendicular body composition and (2) to evaluate the accuracy of external 4-BIA algorithms for the prediction of total body composition, in a representative sample of Swiss children. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A representative sample of 333 Swiss children aged 6-13 years from the Kinder-Sportstudie (KISS) (ISRCTN15360785). Whole-body fat-free mass (FFM) and appendicular lean tissue mass were measured with DXA. Body resistance (R) was measured at 50 kHz with 4-BIA and segmental body resistance at 5, 50, 250 and 500 kHz with 8-BIA. The resistance index (RI) was calculated as height(2)/R. Selection of predictors (gender, age, weight, RI4 and RI8) for BIA algorithms was performed using bootstrapped stepwise linear regression on 1000 samples. We calculated 95% confidence intervals (CI) of regression coefficients and measures of model fit using bootstrap analysis. Limits of agreement were used as measures of interchangeability of BIA with DXA. RESULTS: 8-BIA was more accurate than 4-BIA for the assessment of FFM (root mean square error (RMSE)=0.90 (95% CI 0.82-0.98) vs 1.12 kg (1.01-1.24); limits of agreement 1.80 to -1.80 kg vs 2.24 to -2.24 kg). 8-BIA also gave accurate estimates of appendicular body composition, with RMSE < or = 0.10 kg for arms and < or = 0.24 kg for legs. All external 4-BIA algorithms performed poorly with substantial negative proportional bias (r> or = 0.48, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In a representative sample of young Swiss children (1) 8-BIA was superior to 4-BIA for the prediction of FFM, (2) external 4-BIA algorithms gave biased predictions of FFM and (3) 8-BIA was an accurate predictor of segmental body composition.

Estimating Gross Value Added (GVA) across multiple scales: theoretical approach and empirical validation

This paper presents an application of the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach to the estimation of quantities of Gross Value Added (GVA) referring to economic entities defined at different scales of study. The method first estimates benchmark values of the pace of GVA generation per hour of labour across economic sectors. These values are estimated as intensive variables –e.g. €/hour– by dividing the various sectorial GVA of the country (expressed in € per year) by the hours of paid work in that same sector per year. This assessment is obtained using data referring to national statistics (top down information referring to the national level). Then, the approach uses bottom-up information (the number of hours of paid work in the various economic sectors of an economic entity –e.g. a city or a province– operating within the country) to estimate the amount of GVA produced by that entity. This estimate is obtained by multiplying the number of hours of work in each sector in the economic entity by the benchmark value of GVA generation per hour of work of that particular sector (national average). This method is applied and tested on two different socio-economic systems: (i) Catalonia (considered level n) and Barcelona (considered level n-1); and (ii) the region of Lima (considered level n) and Lima Metropolitan Area (considered level n-1). In both cases, the GVA per year of the local economic entity –Barcelona and Lima Metropolitan Area – is estimated and the resulting value is compared with GVA data provided by statistical offices. The empirical analysis seems to validate the approach, even though the case of Lima Metropolitan Area indicates a need for additional care when dealing with the estimate of GVA in primary sectors (agriculture and mining).

Seasonal fluctuations of bacterial community diversity in agricultural soil and experimental validation by laboratory disturbance experiments.

Natural fluctuations in soil microbial communities are poorly documented because of the inherent difficulty to perform a simultaneous analysis of the relative abundances of multiple populations over a long time period. Yet, it is important to understand the magnitudes of community composition variability as a function of natural influences (e.g., temperature, plant growth, or rainfall) because this forms the reference or baseline against which external disturbances (e.g., anthropogenic emissions) can be judged. Second, definition of baseline fluctuations in complex microbial communities may help to understand at which point the systems become unbalanced and cannot return to their original composition. In this paper, we examined the seasonal fluctuations in the bacterial community of an agricultural soil used for regular plant crop production by using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism profiling (T-RFLP) of the amplified 16S ribosomal ribonucleic acid (rRNA) gene diversity. Cluster and statistical analysis of T-RFLP data showed that soil bacterial communities fluctuated very little during the seasons (similarity indices between 0.835 and 0.997) with insignificant variations in 16S rRNA gene richness and diversity indices. Despite overall insignificant fluctuations, between 8 and 30% of all terminal restriction fragments changed their relative intensity in a significant manner among consecutive time samples. To determine the magnitude of community variations induced by external factors, soil samples were subjected to either inoculation with a pure bacterial culture, addition of the herbicide mecoprop, or addition of nutrients. All treatments resulted in statistically measurable changes of T-RFLP profiles of the communities. Addition of nutrients or bacteria plus mecoprop resulted in bacteria composition, which did not return to the original profile within 14 days. We propose that at less than 70% similarity in T-RFLP, the bacterial communities risk to drift apart to inherently different states.

Body girth as an alternative to body mass for establishing condition indexes in field studies: a validation in the king penguin.

Body mass and body condition are often tightly linked to animal health and fitness in the wild and thus are key measures for ecophysiologists and behavioral ecologists. In some animals, such as large seabird species, obtaining indexes of structural size is relatively easy, whereas measuring body mass under specific field circumstances may be more of a challenge. Here, we suggest an alternative, easily measurable, and reliable surrogate of body mass in field studies, that is, body girth. Using 234 free-living king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) at various stages of molt and breeding, we measured body girth under the flippers, body mass, and bill and flipper length. We found that body girth was strongly and positively related to body mass in both molting (R(2) = 0.91) and breeding (R(2) = 0.73) birds, with the mean error around our predictions being 6.4%. Body girth appeared to be a reliable proxy measure of body mass because the relationship did not vary according to year and experimenter, bird sex, or stage within breeding groups. Body girth was, however, a weak proxy of body mass in birds at the end of molt, probably because most of those birds had reached a critical depletion of energy stores. Body condition indexes established from ordinary least squares regressions of either body girth or body mass on structural size were highly correlated (r(s) = 0.91), suggesting that body girth was as good as body mass in establishing body condition indexes in king penguins. Body girth may prove a useful proxy to body mass for estimating body condition in field investigations and could likely provide similar information in other penguins and large animals that may be complicated to weigh in the wild.

Société scientifique d'Arcachon. Station biologique. Travaux des laboratoires... IXe [-XIe] année

[Arcachon]

Validation and performance comparison of two carbon isotope ratio methods to control the misuse of androgens in humans.

Carbon isotope ratio of androgens in urine specimens is routinely determined to exclude an abuse of testosterone or testosterone prohormones by athletes. Increasing application of gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC/C/IRMS) in the last years for target and systematic investigations on samples has resulted in the demand for rapid sample throughput as well as high selectivity in the extraction process particularly in the case of conspicuous samples. For that purpose, we present herein the complimentary use of an SPE-based assay and an HPLC fractionation method as a two-stage strategy for the isolation of testosterone metabolites and endogenous reference compounds prior to GC/C/IRMS analyses. Assays validation demonstrated acceptable performance in terms of intermediate precision (range: 0.1-0.4 per thousand) and Bland-Altman analyses revealed no significant bias (0.2 per thousand). For further validation of this two-stage analyses strategy, all the specimens (n=124) collected during a major sport event were processed.

Traçologie: la trace, vecteur fondamental de la police scientifique

Les développements technologiques et la spécialisation des laboratoires de police scientifique et de science forensique éloignent de plus en plus les spécialistes de leur objet d'étude: la trace comme vestige, avec toutes les difficultés associées à son caractère unique, non contrôlé qui lui donnent la dimension d'une recherche historique plus qu'expérimentale. Pour paraphraser Kirk (Kirk 1963), la discipline qui touche à l'exploitation des traces fait appel à une pléthore de moyens techniques, mais manque cruellement de recherches et de développements fondamentaux. Cela se reflète d'ailleurs dans l'absence de rigueur quant au vocabulaire utilisé et une confusion dans la nomenclature, par exemple entre l'empreinte (référent) et la trace, l'échantillon (statistiquement sélectionné) et le spécimen, l'analyse, qui n'est pas que chimique, la contamination et la pollution. Ce manque de rigueur traverse la littérature scientifique et cet essai vise à clarifier la terminologie et à proposer un emploi sémantique strict du vocabulaire et des notions de base qui touchent aux fondements de la discipline.

Analysis and quantification of vitamin D metabolites in serum by ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry and high-resolution mass spectrometry: a method comparison and validation.

RATIONALE: The aim of the work was to develop and validate a method for the quantification of vitamin D metabolites in serum using ultra-high-pressure liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (LC/MS), and to validate a high-resolution mass spectrometry (LC/HRMS) approach against a tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS) approach using a large clinical sample set. METHODS: A fast, accurate and reliable method for the quantification of the vitamin D metabolites, 25-hydroxyvitamin D2 (25OH-D2) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25OH-D3), in human serum was developed and validated. The C3 epimer of 25OH-D3 (3-epi-25OH-D3) was also separated from 25OH-D3. The samples were rapidly prepared via a protein precipitation step followed by solid-phase extraction (SPE) using an HLB μelution plate. Quantification was performed using both LC/MS/MS and LC/HRMS systems. RESULTS: Recovery, matrix effect, inter- and intra-day reproducibility were assessed. Lower limits of quantification (LLOQs) were determined for both 25OH-D2 and 25OH-D3 for the LC/MS/MS approach (6.2 and 3.4 µg/L, respectively) and the LC/HRMS approach (2.1 and 1.7 µg/L, respectively). A Passing & Bablok fit was determined between both approaches for 25OH-D3 on 662 clinical samples (1.11 + 1.06x). It was also shown that results can be affected by the inclusion of the isomer 3-epi-25OH-D3. CONCLUSIONS: Quantification of the relevant vitamin D metabolites was successfully developed and validated here. It was shown that LC/HRMS is an accurate, powerful and easy to use approach for quantification within clinical laboratories. Finally, the results here suggest that it is important to separate 3-epi-25OH-D3 from 25OH-D3. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[20 phot. de l'Andalousie après le tremblement de terre de la fin de 1884, provenant de la mission française dirigée par F. Fouqué. Voir l'article de ce dernier dans le n°311, du 14 mars 1886, du Bulletin hebdomadaire de l'Association scientifique de France. Don Fouqué en 1886]

Donateur : Fouqué, Ferdinand (1828-1904)