A singular vector perspective of 4DVAR: The spatial structure and evolution of baroclinic weather systems

The extent to which the four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) is able to use information about the time evolution of the atmosphere to infer the vertical spatial structure of baroclinic weather systems is investigated. The singular value decomposition (SVD) of the 4DVAR observability matrix is introduced as a novel technique to examine the spatial structure of analysis increments. Specific results are illustrated using 4DVAR analyses and SVD within an idealized 2D Eady model setting. Three different aspects are investigated. The first aspect considers correcting errors that result in normal-mode growth or decay. The results show that 4DVAR performs well at correcting growing errors but not decaying errors. Although it is possible for 4DVAR to correct decaying errors, the assimilation of observations can be detrimental to a forecast because 4DVAR is likely to add growing errors instead of correcting decaying errors. The second aspect shows that the singular values of the observability matrix are a useful tool to identify the optimal spatial and temporal locations for the observations. The results show that the ability to extract the time-evolution information can be maximized by placing the observations far apart in time. The third aspect considers correcting errors that result in nonmodal rapid growth. 4DVAR is able to use the model dynamics to infer some of the vertical structure. However, the specification of the case-dependent background error variances plays a crucial role.

Airborne measurements of the spatial distribution of aerosol chemical composition across Europe and evolution of the organic fraction

The spatial distribution of aerosol chemical composition and the evolution of the Organic Aerosol (OA) fraction is investigated based upon airborne measurements of aerosol chemical composition in the planetary boundary layer across Europe. Sub-micron aerosol chemical composition was measured using a compact Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (cToF-AMS). A range of sampling conditions were evaluated, including relatively clean background conditions, polluted conditions in North-Western Europe and the near-field to far-field outflow from such conditions. Ammonium nitrate and OA were found to be the dominant chemical components of the sub-micron aerosol burden, with mass fractions ranging from 20--50% each. Ammonium nitrate was found to dominate in North-Western Europe during episodes of high pollution, reflecting the enhanced NO_x and ammonia sources in this region. OA was ubiquitous across Europe and concentrations generally exceeded sulphate by 30--160%. A factor analysis of the OA burden was performed in order to probe the evolution across this large range of spatial and temporal scales. Two separate Oxygenated Organic Aerosol (OOA) components were identified; one representing an aged-OOA, termed Low Volatility-OOA and another representing fresher-OOA, termed Semi Volatile-OOA on the basis of their mass spectral similarity to previous studies. The factors derived from different flights were not chemically the same but rather reflect the range of OA composition sampled during a particular flight. Significant chemical processing of the OA was observed downwind of major sources in North-Western Europe, with the LV-OOA component becoming increasingly dominant as the distance from source and photochemical processing increased. The measurements suggest that the aging of OA can be viewed as a continuum, with a progression from a less oxidised, semi-volatile component to a highly oxidised, less-volatile component. Substantial amounts of pollution were observed far downwind of continental Europe, with OA and ammonium nitrate being the major constituents of the sub-micron aerosol burden. Such anthropogenically perturbed air masses can significantly perturb regional climate far downwind of major source regions.

How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics.

Spatial disaggregation and intensity correction of TRMM-based rainfall time series for hydrological applications in dryland catchments

A novel approach is presented for combining spatial and temporal detail from newly available TRMM-based data sets to derive hourly rainfall intensities at 1-km spatial resolution for hydrological modelling applications. Time series of rainfall intensities derived from 3-hourly 0.25° TRMM 3B42 data are merged with a 1-km gridded rainfall climatology based on TRMM 2B31 data to account for the sub-grid spatial distribution of rainfall intensities within coarse-scale 0.25° grid cells. The method is implemented for two dryland catchments in Tunisia and Senegal, and validated against gauge data. The outcomes of the validation show that the spatially disaggregated and intensity corrected TRMM time series more closely approximate ground-based measurements than non-corrected data. The method introduced here enables the generation of rainfall intensity time series with realistic temporal and spatial detail for dynamic modelling of runoff and infiltration processes that are especially important to water resource management in arid regions.

Statistical characterisation of the growth and spatial scales of the substorm onset arc

We present the first multi-event study of the spatial and temporal structuring of the aurora to provide statistical evidence of the near-Earth plasma instability which causes the substorm onset arc. Using data from ground-based auroral imagers, we study repeatable signatures of along-arc auroral beads, which are thought to represent the ionospheric projection of magnetospheric instability in the near-Earth plasma sheet. We show that the growth and spatial scales of these wave-like fluctuations are similar across multiple events, indicating that each sudden auroral brightening has a common explanation. We find statistically that growth rates for auroral beads peak at low wavenumber with the most unstable spatial scales mapping to an azimuthal wavelength λ≈1700 − 2500 km in the equatorial magnetosphere at around 9-12 RE. We compare growth rates and spatial scales with a range of theoretical predictions of magnetotail instabilities, including the cross-field current instability and the shear-flow ballooning instability. We conclude that, although the cross-field current instability can generate similar magnitude of growth rates, the range of unstable wavenumbers indicates that the shear-flow ballooning instability is the most likely explanation for our observations.

Temporal and spatial variability in the macrozoobenthic community along a salinity gradient in the Castillos Lagoon (Uruguay)

The macrozoobenthic community of the Castillos Lagoon system (East Coast of Uruguay) was sampled during autumn, winter, spring and summer of 1991, in order to describe the community structure and the spatial and temporal patterns of distribution. Eleven sampling stations were distributed along a salinity gradient in a north-south direction (8 replicates were collected at each station). The maximum density of organisms was found at the central part of the lagoon (stations 6 and 7) where the bivalve Erodona mactroides and gastropod Heleobia australis were dominants. No significant correlation between the overall abundance of organisms and salinity could be demonstrated (r = 0.43, p > 0.1). However, a reduction in organism abundance between the autumn and the summer coincided with a marked drop in salinity. Falling levels of dissolved oxygen could have influenced the decreasing density of organisms (r = 0.75, p < 0.05). Species richness and diversity were correlated (p < 0.1) with salinity but the degree of correlation was not uniformly significant between sampling periods.

Reproductive Strategies of Brazilian Lizards of the Genus Tropidurus Rodrigues, 1987 (Squamata, Tropiduridae) in the Temporal and Spatial

Reproductive strategy is the set of adaptations that promote the most efficient way that the species will survive under the particular conditions of a determined environment. Understanding these adaptations is important and can help pinpoint populations indicator of environmental changes. Spermatogenesis is a measurable biological process of these adaptations in spatial and temporal scales. We analyzed the morphology of the testes and oviducts of the lizard species that comprise the genus Tropidurus, taking into account the geographical distribution and sympatric relations. For the analysis and the testes were removed from the middle part of the oviducts from Tropidurus etheridge, T oreadicus, T itambere, T spinulosus and T Guarani species, collected in different places in the Mato Grosso state, Brazil. The reproductive period is synchronous for males and females and occurs in September, October and November. Reproductive males were characterized. In the testes are seminiferous tubules with germ cells at different stages of spermatogenesis, with a high epithelium, at present light, free spermatozoa in the lumen and reduction of interstitial tissue. For females, the reproduction peak occurs when the oviduct epithelium is high with secretions and basal nucleus. These months are characterized in the sampled areas over a period of heavy rain and high temperatures. The decline of reproductive period was observed in both sexes, between April and August. Low reproduction in males is characterized by ample light, absence of sperm, only germ cells in the early stages of spermatogenesis are observed (a few spermatogonia and spermatocytes) and interstitial tissue wide. In females, the period of reproductive decline is marked by the absence of unicellular glands in the oviduct epithelium, with higher affinity with the dye. This period corresponds to low rainfall periods and lower temperatures. We propose an analysis of zoological samples; this is a proposal to facilitate the work of many researchers through access to the species, especially rare species.

Setting boundaries: Environmental and spatial effects on Odonata larvae distribution (Insecta)

Características ambientais e distâncias espaciais entre os locais foram utilizadas para explicar a distribuição das espécies no ambiente, através das predições da teoria Neutra (espaço) e teoria do Nicho (ambiente). Foram avaliados os efeitos de fatores geográficos e ambientais sobre a distribuição de larvas de Odonata ao longo da Bacia do Rio Suiá-Missu, no estado de Mato Grosso. Nós testamos a hipótese de que (1) o ambiente é o principal fator de estruturação da comunidade devido às suas exigências ecofisiológicas; e (2) o padrão, se presente, é mais expressivo para Zygoptera. As amostras foram feitas em 12 locais na Bacia do Rio Suiá-Missu, em três campanhas (2007/2008), com um total de 1.382 larvas de Odonata, composta por 10 famílias, 51 gêneros e 100 morfoespécies. Os Anisoptera foram mais abundantes que Zygoptera, que compreende 81% de todas as amostras. O ambiente afetou Zygoptera (R = 0,291; p = 0,007) e foi o principal fator de estruturação da assembléia. Assim, a teoria do nicho foi confirmada. A ausência deste efeito sobre Anisoptera pode ser devido às adaptações ecofisiológicos que lhes permitem ocupar diferentes habitats. Larvas de Zygoptera são indicadores de mudanças na estrutura do habitat. Os efeitos das variáveis ambientais sobre a ecologia das larvas enfatizam a forte relação entre esses organismos e integridade ambiental.

Broad-scale spatial patterns of canopy cover and pond morphology affect the structure of a Neotropical amphibian metacommunity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Annual, seasonal and spatial abundance of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri (Decapoda, Penaeidae) off the Southeastern coast of Brazil

We investigated the influence of environmental factors in spatial and temporal distribution of the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri in Santos Bay and São Vicente Estuary, state of São Paulo, Brazil. Monthly samples were obtained, from May 2008 through April 2010, from four locations in the estuary and four in the bay. No individual was collected in the estuary and this was attributed to the low salinity means recorded in this environment. We collected 109,153 individuals in the bay and there was no difference in abundance between the two years comprised by the study period. The similarity in spatial distribution can be related to sediment grain size that in all sampling locations showed great amount of very fine sand. The largest amount of reproductive females was obtained in early 2010, when temperature was high, and this could have increased the juvenile recruitment in April 2010. According to our results, the distribution of X. kroyeri in the study area is influenced by temperature, which is related to reproduction, and salinity, limiting the entrance of individuals in the estuarine region.

Analysis of acoustic frequency and wave amplitude generated by the Oscillatory Thoracic Thixotropic Device (Diottix(r)) in human chest

Diottix(r) was calibrated at 25 Hz to achieve the frequency indicated in literature as being effective to mobilize the airways secretions. However, the amplitude and frequency of the waves generated by the equipment in different regions of the chest still need to be investigated. The objective of this study was to analyze the frequency and amplitude of waves generated by Diottix(r) in chests of healthy subjects. Diottix(r) was used in the anterior and posterior regions of the chest. The mechanical waves were captured using stethoscopes connected to electret microphones, which were connected to a digital oscilloscope. Frequency and amplitude data were recorded by the stethoscope, positioned in six points in the anterior region and six in the posterior region of the chest, following the positions commonly used in pulmonary auscultation. Signals were recorded and transferred to a computer with software for their analysis. The frequency of waves did not present a significant change (from 24.9 to 26.4 Hz). The wave amplitude in the anterior versus the posterior region in each area of the lung, the upper, middle and lower, had differences. Diottix(r) produces frequencies in the chest according to the calibrated; thus, it can be a complementary resource to bronchial hygiene maneuvers. The amplitudes of waves seem to be affected by other structures like bone parts and heart.

A comparative analysis reveals weak relationships between ecological factors and beta diversity of stream insect metacommunities at two spatial levels

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Temporal, diel and spatial variability of decapod larvae from St Paul`s Rocks, an equatorial oceanic island of Brazil

Temporal, spatial and diel variation in the distribution and abundance of organisms is an inherent property of ecological systems. The present study describes these variations and the composition of decapod larvae from the surface waters of St Paul`s Rocks. The expeditions to the archipelago were carried out in April, August and November 2003, March 2004 and May 2005. Surface plankton samples were collected during the morning and dusk periods, inside the inlet and in increasing distances around the archipelago (similar to 150, 700 and 1500 m). The identification resulted in 51 taxa. Seven species, six genera and larvae of the families Pandalidae and Portunidae were identified for the first time in the area. The mean larval density varied from zero to 150.2 +/- 69.6 individuals 100 m(-3) in the waters surrounding the archipelago and from 1.7 +/- 3.0 to 12,827 +/- 15,073 individuals 100 m(-3) inside the inlet. Significant differences on larval density were verified between months and period of the day, but not among the three sites around the archipelago. Cluster and non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis indicated that the decapod larvae community was divided into benthic and pelagic assemblages. Indicator species analysis (ISA) showed that six Brachyura taxa were good indicators for the inlet, while three sergestids were the main species from the waters around the archipelago. These results suggest that St Paul`s Rocks can be divided into two habitats, based on larval composition, density and diversity values: the inlet and the waters surrounding the archipelago.

Spatial regimes: dynamics of intentional homicides in the city of Sao Paulo between 2000 and 2008

Objective. To identify the existence of spatial and temporal patterns in the occurrence of intentional homicides in the municipality of Sao Paulo (MSP), Brazil, and to discuss the analytical value of taking such patterns into account when designing studies that address the dynamics and factors associated with the incidence of homicides. Methods. A longitudinal ecological study was conducted, having as units of analysis 13 205 census tracts and the 96 census districts that congregate these sectors in Sao Paulo. All intentional homicides reported in the city between 2000 and 2008 were analyzed. The gross homicide rates per 100 000 population was calculated as well as the global and local Bayesian estimates for each census tract during the study period. To verify the possibility of identifying different patterns of the spatial distribution of homicides, we used BoxMap and Moran's I index. Results. The homicide trends in the city of Sao Paulo in the last decade were not homogeneous and systematic. Instead, seven patterns of spatial distribution were identified; that is, seven spatial regimes for the occurrence of intentional homicides, considering the homicide rates within each census tract as well as the rates in adjacent tracts. These spatial distribution regimes were not contained within the limits of the census tracts and districts. Conclusions. The results show the importance of analyzing the spatial distribution of social phenomena without restriction of political and administrative boundaries.

Combining spatial-temporal and phylogenetic analysis approaches for improved understanding on global H5N1 transmission

Background Since late 2003, the highly pathogenic influenza A H5N1 had initiated several outbreak waves that swept across the Eurasia and Africa continents. Getting prepared for reassortment or mutation of H5N1 viruses has become a global priority. Although the spreading mechanism of H5N1 has been studied from different perspectives, its main transmission agents and spread route problems remain unsolved. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on a compilation of the time and location of global H5N1 outbreaks from November 2003 to December 2006, we report an interdisciplinary effort that combines the geospatial informatics approach with a bioinformatics approach to form an improved understanding on the transmission mechanisms of H5N1 virus. Through a spherical coordinate based analysis, which is not conventionally done in geographical analyses, we reveal obvious spatial and temporal clusters of global H5N1 cases on different scales, which we consider to be associated with two different transmission modes of H5N1 viruses. Then through an interdisciplinary study of both geographic and phylogenetic analysis, we obtain a H5N1 spreading route map. Our results provide insight on competing hypotheses as to which avian hosts are responsible for the spread of H5N1. Conclusions/Significance We found that although South China and Southeast Asia may be the virus pool of avian flu, East Siberia may be the source of the H5N1 epidemic. The concentration of migratory birds from different places increases the possibility of gene mutation. Special attention should be paid to East Siberia, Middle Siberia and South China for improved surveillance of H5N1 viruses and monitoring of migratory birds.