A dynamic factor model for mid-term forecasting of wind power generation

The main objective of this paper is the development and application of multivariate time series models for forecasting aggregated wind power production in a country or region. Nowadays, in Spain, Denmark or Germany there is an increasing penetration of this kind of renewable energy, somehow to reduce energy dependence on the exterior, but always linked with the increaseand uncertainty affecting the prices of fossil fuels. The disposal of accurate predictions of wind power generation is a crucial task both for the System Operator as well as for all the agents of the Market. However, the vast majority of works rarely onsider forecasting horizons longer than 48 hours, although they are of interest for the system planning and operation. In this paper we use Dynamic Factor Analysis, adapting and modifying it conveniently, to reach our aim: the computation of accurate forecasts for the aggregated wind power production in a country for a forecasting horizon as long as possible, particularly up to 60 days (2 months). We illustrate this methodology and the results obtained for real data in the leading country in wind power production: Denmark

Quantitative trait loci and metabolic pathways: genetic control of the concentration of maysin, a corn earworm resistance factor, in maize silks.

Interpretation of quantitative trait locus (QTL) studies of agronomic traits is limited by lack of knowledge of biochemical pathways leading to trait expression. To more fully elucidate the biological significance of detected QTL, we chose a trait that is the product of a well-characterized pathway, namely the concentration of maysin, a C-glycosyl flavone, in silks of maize, Zea mays L. Maysin is a host-plant resistance factor against the corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie). We determined silk maysin concentrations and restriction fragment length polymorphism genotypes at flavonoid pathway loci or linked markers for 285 F2 plants derived from the cross of lines GT114 and GT119. Single-factor analysis of variance indicated that the p1 region on chromosome 1 accounted for 58.0% of the phenotypic variance and showed additive gene action. The p1 locus is a transcription activator for portions of the flavonoid pathway. A second QTL, represented by marker umc 105a near the brown pericarp1 locus on chromosome 9, accounted for 10.8% of the variance. Gene action of this region was dominant for low maysin, but was only expressed in the presence of a functional p1 allele. The model explaining the greatest proportion of phenotypic variance (75.9%) included p1, umc105a, umc166b (chromosome 1), r1 (chromosome 10), and two epistatic interaction terms, p1 x umc105a and p1 x r1. Our results provide evidence that regulatory loci have a central role and that there is a complex interplay among different branches of the flavonoid pathway in the expression of this trait.

Benthic foraminifera analysis of two sediments cores from the northern Cape Basin in the eastern South Atlantic Ocean

Two late Quaternary sediment cores from the northern Cape Basin in the eastern South Atlantic Ocean were analyzed for their benthic foraminiferal content and benthic stable carbon isotope composition. The locations of the cores were selected such that both of them presently are bathed by North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and past changes in deep water circulation should be recorded simultaneously at both locations. However, the areas are different in terms of primary production. One core was recovered from the nutrient-depleted Walvis Ridge area, whereas the other one is from the continental slope just below the coastal upwelling mixing area where present day organic matter fluxes are shown to be moderately high. Recent data served as the basis for the interpretation of the late Quaternary faunal fluctuations and the paleoceanographic reconstruction. During the last 450,000 years, NADW flux into the eastern South Atlantic Ocean has been restricted to interglacial periods, with the strongest dominance of a NADW-driven deep water circulation during interglacial stages 1, 9 and 11. At the continental margin, high productivity faunas and very low epibenthic d13C values indicate enhanced fluxes of organic matter during glacial periods. This can be attributed to a glacial increase and lateral extension of coastal upwelling. The long term glacial-interglacial paleoproductivity cycles are superimposed by high-frequency variations with a period of about 23,000 yr. Enhanced productivity in surface waters above the Walvis Ridge, far from the coast, is indicated during glacial stages 8, 10 and 12. During these periods, cold, nutrient-rich filaments from the mixing area were probably driven as far as to the southeastern flank of the Walvis Ridge.

The factorial analysis of human ability.

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Psychometric properties of the drinking expectancy questionnaire: A review of the factor structure and a proposed new scoring method

Objective: Expectancies about the outcomes of alcohol consumption are widely accepted as important determinants of drinking. This construct is increasingly recognized as a significant element of psychological interventions for alcohol-related problems. Much effort has been invested in producing reliable and valid instruments to measure this construct for research and clinical purposes, but very few have had their factor structure subjected to adequate validation. Among them, the Drinking Expectancies Questionnaire (DEQ) was developed to address some theoretical and design issues with earlier expectancy scales. Exploratory factor analyses, in addition to validity and reliability analyses, were performed when the original questionnaire was developed. The object of this study was to undertake a confirmatory analysis of the factor structure of the DEQ. Method: Confirmatory factor analysis through LISREL 8 was performed using a randomly split sample of 679 drinkers. Results: Results suggested that a new 5-factor model, which differs slightly from the original 6-factor version, was a more robust measure of expectancies. A new method of scoring the DEQ consistent with this factor structure is presented. Conclusions: The present study shows more robust psychometric properties of the DEQ using the new factor structure.

The gambling related cognitions scale (GRCS): development, confirmatory factor validation and psychometric properties

Aims The aims of this study are to develop and validate a measure to screen for a range of gambling-related cognitions (GRC) in gamblers. Design and participants A total of 968 volunteers were recruited from a community-based population. They were divided randomly into two groups. Principal axis factoring with varimax rotation was performed on group one and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used on group two to confirm the best-fitted solution. Measurements The Gambling Related Cognition Scale (GRCS) was developed for this study and the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS), the Motivation Towards Gambling Scale (MTGS) and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS-2 1) were used for validation. Findings Exploratory factor analysis performed using half the sample indicated five factors, which included interpretative control/bias (GRCS-IB), illusion of control (GRCS-IC), predictive control (GRCS-PC), gambling-related expectancies (GRCS-GE) and a perceived inability to stop gambling (GRCS-IS). These accounted for 70% of the total variance. Using the other half of the sample, CFA confirmed that the five-factor solution fitted the data most effectively. Cronbach's alpha coefficients for the factors ranged from 0.77 to 0.91, and 0.93 for the overall scale. Conclusions This paper demonstrated that the 23-item GRCS has good psychometric properties and thus is a useful instrument for identifying GRC among non-clinical gamblers. It provides the first step towards devising/adapting similar tools for problem gamblers as well as developing more specialized instruments to assess particular domains of GRC.

The gambling urge scale: Development, confirmatory factor validation, and psychometric properties

The urge to gamble is a physiological, psychological, or emotional motivational state, often associated with continued gambling. The authors developed and validated the 6-item Gambling Urge Questionnaire (GUS), which was based on the 8-item Alcohol Urge Questionnaire (M. J. Bohn, D. D. Krahn, & B. A. Staehler, 1995), using 968 community-based participants. Exploratory factor analysis using half of the sample indicated a 1-factor solution that accounted for 55.18% of the total variance. This was confirmed using confirmatory factor analysis with the other half of the sample. The GUS had a Cronbach's alpha coefficient of .81. Concurrent, predictive, and criterion-related validity of the GUS were good, suggesting that the GUS is a valid and reliable instrument for assessing gambling urges among nonclinical gamblers.

Transcultural properties of the Composite Scale of Morningness: The relevance of the "morning affect" factor

Morningness scales have been translated into several languages, but it lack of normative data and methodological differences make cross-cultural comparisons difficult. This study examines the psychometric properties and factor structure of the Composite Scale of Morningness (CSM) in samples from five countries: France (n = 627), Italy (n, = 702), Spain (n = 391), Thailand (n. = 503), and Australia (17 = 654). Strong national differences are identified. A quadratic relationship between age and CSM total score was apparent in the Australian data with a downward trend after age 35 yrs. There was no age effect in air), sample in the range from 18 to 29 yrs. Factor analysis identified a three-factor solution in all groups for both men and women. Tucker's congruence coefficients indicate that: (1) this solution is highly congruent between sexes in each culture, and (2) a morning affect factor is highly congruent between cultures. These results indicate there are national differences in factorial structure and that cut-off scores used to categorize participants as morning- and evening-types should be established for different cultural and age groups.

Factor structure and internal consistency of the Young Schema Questionnaire (Short Form) in Korean and Australian samples

We investigated cross-cultural differences in the factor structure and psychometric properties of the 75-item Young Schema Questionnaire-Short Form (YSQ-SF). Participants were 833 South Korean and 271 Australian undergraduate students. The South Korean sample was randomly divided into two sub-samples. Sample A was used for Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and sample B was used for Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). EFA for the South Korean sample revealed a 13-factor solution to be the best fit for the data, and CFA on the data from sample B confirmed this result. CFA on the data from the Australian sample also revealed a 13-factor solution. The overall scale of the YSQ-SF demonstrated a high level of internal consistency in the South Korean and Australian groups. Furthermore, adequate internal consistencies for all subscales in the South Korean and Australian samples were demonstrated. In conclusion, the results showed that YSQ-SF with 13 factors has good psychometric properties and reliability for South Korean and Australian University students. Korean samples had significantly higher YSD scores on most of the 13 subscales than the Australian sample. However, limitations of the current study preclude the generalisability of the findings to beyond undergraduate student populations. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.