Genetic dynamics across early life stages in the tropical tree Prunus africana (Rosaceae)

In many plant species, the genetic template of early life-stages is formed by animal-mediated pollination and seed dispersal and has profound impact on further recruitment and population dynamics. Understanding the impact of pollination and seed dispersal on genetic patterns is a central issue in plant population biology. In my thesis, I investigated (i) contemporary dispersal and gene flow distances as well as (ii) genetic diversity and spatial genetic structure (SGS) across subsequent recruitment stages in a population of the animal-pollinated and dispersed tree Prunus africana in Kakamega Forest, West Kenya. Using microsatellite markers and parentage analyses, I inferred distances of pollen dispersal (father-to-mother), seed dispersal/maternal gene flow (mother-to-offspring) as well as paternal gene flow (father-to-offspring) for four early life stages of the species (seeds and fruits, current year seedlings, seedlings ≤ 3yr, seedlings > 3yr). Distances of pollen and seed dispersal as well as paternal gene flow were significantly shorter than expected from the spatial arrangement of trees and sampling plots. They were not affected by the density of conspecific trees in the surrounding. At the propagule stage, mean pollen dispersal distances were considerably (23-fold) longer than seed dispersal distances, and paternal gene flow distances exceeded maternal gene flow by a factor of 25. Seed dispersal distances were remarkably restricted, potentially leading to a strong initial SGS. The initial genetic template created by pollination and seed dispersal was extensively altered during later recruitment stages. Potential Janzen-Connell effects led to markedly increasing distances between offspring and both parental trees in older life stages. This showed that distance and density-dependent mortality factors are not exclusively related to the mother tree, but also to the father. Across subsequent recruitment stages, the pollen to seed dispersal ratio and the paternal to maternal gene flow ratio dropped to 2.1 and 3.4, respectively, in seedlings > 3yr. The relative changes in effective pollen dispersal, seed dispersal, and paternal gene flow distances across recruitment stages elucidate the mechanisms affecting the contribution of the two processes pollen and seed dispersal to overall gene flow. Using the same six microsatellite loci, I analyzed genetic diversity and SGS across five life stages, from seed rain to adults. Levels of genetic diversity within the studied P. africana population were comparable to other Prunus species and did not vary across life stages. In congruence with the short seed dispersal distances, I found significant SGS in all life stages. SGS decreased from seed and early seedling stages to older juvenile stages, and it was higher in adults than in late juveniles of the next generation. A comparison of the data with direct assessments of contemporary gene flow patterns indicate that distance- or density-dependent mortality, potentially due to Janzen-Connell effects, led to the initial decrease in SGS. Intergeneration variation in SGS could have been driven by variation in demographic processes, the effect of overlapping generations, and local selection processes. Overall, my study showed that complex sequential processes during recruitment contribute to the spatial genetic structure of tree populations. It highlights the importance of a multistage perspective for a comprehensive understanding of the impact of animal-mediated pollen and seed dispersal on spatial population dynamics and genetic patterns of trees.

Wet bioadhesion in tree frogs

Viele Tiere wie etwa Geckos oder Laubfrösche können mittels ihrer Haftscheiben an Oberflächen kleben. Diese Haftscheiben ermöglichen es den Tieren, sich während ihrerrnFortbewegung an Oberflächen anzuheften und wieder zu lösen unabhängig von denrnvorherrschenden Umweltbedingungen. Frösche besitzen mikro- und nanostrukturierternsowie charakteristisch geformte Haftscheiben an Finger- und Zehenenden. Ihre besonderernevolutionäre Errungenschaft, sich stark und zugleich reversibel in sowohl trockenen alsrnauch feuchten Umgebungen anzuhaften, hat die Wissenschaft zur Nachahmung und Untersuchungrndieser Strukturen inspiriert. Zum besseren Verständnis der Mechanismen vonrnAnhaftung und Loslösung bei Laubfröschen wurden weiche, elastische und mikrostrukturierternOberflächen hergestellt, indem PDMS (Polydimethylsiloxan) auf einer Siliziummaskernmit Hexagonstruktur aufgetragen und vernetzt wurde. Dadurch wurden Anordnungenrnvon hexagonalen Mikrosäulen mit spezifischen geometrischen Eigenschaften undrnunterschiedlichen Kontaktgeometrien (normale, flache Form, T-Form und konkave Formrnder Säulenenden) erhalten. Um den Einfluss der van-der-Waals, hydrodynamischen,rnKapillar-und Adhäsionskräfte zu verstehen, wurden verschiedene experimentelle Ansätzernverfolgt: Die auf eine einzelne Säule wirkenden Adhäsionskräfte wurden mittelsrnRasterkraftmikroskopie gemessen. Dazu wurden speziell hergestellte kolloidale Sensorenrnverwendet. Diese Experimente wurden sowohl mit als auch ohne Flüssigkeitsfilm auf derrnSäule durchgeführt. Die Ergebnisse zeigten den Beitrag von Kapillarkraft und direktenrnKontaktkräften zur Adhäsionskraft bei Vorliegen eines Flüssigkeitsfilms. Die Adhäsionrnfiel umso größer aus, je weniger Flüssigkeit zwischen Sensor und Säule vorhanden war.rnIm Falle einer trockenen Adhäsion zeigte die Säule mit T-Form die höchste Adhäsion. Darndie Haftscheiben der Laubfrösche weich sind, können sie dynamisch ihre Form ändern,rnwas zu einer Änderung der hydrodynamischen Kraft zwischen Scheibe und Oberflächernführt. Der Einfluss der Oberflächenverformbarkeit auf die hydrodynamische Kraft wurderndaher am Modellsystem einer Kugel untersucht, welche sich einer weichen und ebenenrnOberfläche annähert. Dieses System wurde sowohl theoretisch über die Simulation finiterrnElemente als auch experimentell über die Messung mit kolloidalen Sonden untersucht.rnSowohl experimentelle Ergebnisse als auch die Simulationen ergaben eine Abnahme derrnhydrodynamischen Kraft bei Annäherung des kolloidalen Sensors an eine weiche undrnelastische Oberfläche. Beim Entfernen der Sensors von der Oberfläche verstärkte sichrndie hydrodynamische Anziehungskraft. Die Kraft, die zur Trennung eines Partikels von einer Oberfläche in Flüssigkeit notwendig ist, ist für weiche und elastischen Oberflächenrngrößer als für harte Oberflächen. In Bezug zur Bioadhäsion bei Laubfröschen konnternfestgestellt somit festgestellt werden, dass sich der hydrodynamische Anteil zur feuchtenrnBioadhäsion aufgrund der weichen Oberfläche erhöht. Weiterhin wurde der Einflussrndes Aspektverhältnisses der Säulen auf die Reibungskraft mittels eines kolloidalen Sensorsrnuntersucht. Gestreckte Säulen zeigten dabei eine höhere Reibung im Vergleich zu.rnSäulen mit einem gestreckten Hexagon als Querschnitt.

New markov chain based methods for single and cross-domain sentiment classification

Nowadays communication is switching from a centralized scenario, where communication media like newspapers, radio, TV programs produce information and people are just consumers, to a completely different decentralized scenario, where everyone is potentially an information producer through the use of social networks, blogs, forums that allow a real-time worldwide information exchange. These new instruments, as a result of their widespread diffusion, have started playing an important socio-economic role. They are the most used communication media and, as a consequence, they constitute the main source of information enterprises, political parties and other organizations can rely on. Analyzing data stored in servers all over the world is feasible by means of Text Mining techniques like Sentiment Analysis, which aims to extract opinions from huge amount of unstructured texts. This could lead to determine, for instance, the user satisfaction degree about products, services, politicians and so on. In this context, this dissertation presents new Document Sentiment Classification methods based on the mathematical theory of Markov Chains. All these approaches bank on a Markov Chain based model, which is language independent and whose killing features are simplicity and generality, which make it interesting with respect to previous sophisticated techniques. Every discussed technique has been tested in both Single-Domain and Cross-Domain Sentiment Classification areas, comparing performance with those of other two previous works. The performed analysis shows that some of the examined algorithms produce results comparable with the best methods in literature, with reference to both single-domain and cross-domain tasks, in $2$-classes (i.e. positive and negative) Document Sentiment Classification. However, there is still room for improvement, because this work also shows the way to walk in order to enhance performance, that is, a good novel feature selection process would be enough to outperform the state of the art. Furthermore, since some of the proposed approaches show promising results in $2$-classes Single-Domain Sentiment Classification, another future work will regard validating these results also in tasks with more than $2$ classes.

Evidence for selection on coloration in a Panamanian poison frog: a coalescent-based approach

Aim The strawberry poison frog, Oophaga pumilio, has undergone a remarkable radiation of colour morphs in the Bocas del Toro archipelago in Panama. This species shows extreme variation in colour and pattern between populations that have been geographically isolated for < 10,000 years. While previous research has suggested the involvement of divergent selection, to date no quantitative test has examined this hypothesis. Location Bocas del Toro archipelago, Panama. Methods We use a combination of population genetics, phylogeography and phenotypic analyses to test for divergent selection in coloration in O. pumilio. Tissue samples of 88 individuals from 15 distinct populations were collected. Using these data, we developed a gene tree using the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) d-loop region. Using parameters derived from our mtDNA phylogeny, we predicted the coalescence of a hypothetical nuclear gene underlying coloration. We collected spectral reflectance and body size measurements on 94 individuals from four of the populations and performed a quantitative analysis of phenotypic divergence. Results The mtDNA d-loop tree revealed considerable polyphyly across populations. Coalescent reconstructions of gene trees within population trees revealed incomplete genotypic sorting among populations. The quantitative analysis of phenotypic divergence revealed complete lineage sorting by colour, but not by body size: populations showed non-overlapping variation in spectral reflectance measures of body coloration, while variation in body size did not separate populations. Simulations of the coalescent using parameter values derived from our empirical analyses demonstrated that the level of sorting among populations seen in colour cannot reasonably be attributed to drift. Main conclusions These results imply that divergence in colour, but not body size, is occurring at a faster rate than expected under neutral processes. Our study provides the first quantitative support for the claim that strong diversifying selection underlies colour variation in the strawberry poison frog.

Rapid parallel adaptive radiations from a single hybridogenic ancestral population

The Alpine lake whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) species complex is a classic example of a recent radiation, associated with colonization of the Alpine lakes following the glacial retreat (less than 15 kyr BP). They have formed a unique array of endemic lake flocks, each with one to six described sympatric species differing in morphology, diet and reproductive ecology. Here, we present a genomic investigation of the relationships between and within the lake flocks. Comparing the signal between over 1000 AFLP loci and mitochondrial control region sequence data, we use phylogenetic tree-based and population genetic methods to reconstruct the phylogenetic history of the group and to delineate the principal centres of genetic diversity within the radiation. We find significant cytonuclear discordance showing that the genomically monophyletic Alpine whitefish clade arose from a hybrid swarm of at least two glacial refugial lineages. Within this radiation, we find seven extant genetic clusters centred on seven lake systems. Most interestingly, we find evidence of sympatric speciation within and parallel evolution of equivalent phenotypes among these lake systems. However, we also find the genetic signature of human-mediated gene flow and diversity loss within many lakes, highlighting the fragility of recent radiations.

Effect of immune pressure on hepatitis C virus evolution: insights from a single-source outbreak

The host's immune response to hepatitis C virus (HCV) can result in the selection of characteristic mutations (adaptations) that enable the virus to escape this response. The ability of the virus to mutate at these sites is dependent on the incoming virus, the fitness cost incurred by the mutation, and the benefit to the virus in escaping the response. Studies examining viral adaptation in chronic HCV infection have shown that these characteristic immune escape mutations can be observed at the population level as human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-specific viral polymorphisms. We examined 63 individuals with chronic HCV infection who were infected from a single HCV genotype 1b source. Our aim was to determine the extent to which the host's immune pressure affects HCV diversity and the ways in which the sequence of the incoming virus, including preexisting escape mutations, can influence subsequent mutations in recipients and infection outcomes. Conclusion: HCV sequences from these individuals revealed 29 significant associations between specific HLA types within the new hosts and variations within their viruses, which likely represent new viral adaptations. These associations did not overlap with previously reported adaptations for genotypes 1a and 3a and possibly reflected a combination of constraint due to the incoming virus and genetic distance between the strains. However, these sites accounted for only a portion of the sites in which viral diversity was observed in the new hosts. Furthermore, preexisting viral adaptations in the incoming (source) virus likely influenced the outcomes in the new hosts.

Serodiagnosis of Echinococcus spp. infection: explorative selection of diagnostic antigens by peptide microarray

BACKGROUND: Production of native antigens for serodiagnosis of helminthic infections is laborious and hampered by batch-to-batch variation. For serodiagnosis of echinococcosis, especially cystic disease, most screening tests rely on crude or purified Echinococcus granulosus hydatid cyst fluid. To resolve limitations associated with native antigens in serological tests, the use of standardized and highly pure antigens produced by chemical synthesis offers considerable advantages, provided appropriate diagnostic sensitivity and specificity is achieved. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Making use of the growing collection of genomic and proteomic data, we applied a set of bioinformatic selection criteria to a collection of protein sequences including conceptually translated nucleotide sequence data of two related tapeworms, Echinococcus multilocularis and Echinococcus granulosus. Our approach targeted alpha-helical coiled-coils and intrinsically unstructured regions of parasite proteins potentially exposed to the host immune system. From 6 proteins of E. multilocularis and 5 proteins of E. granulosus, 45 peptides between 24 and 30 amino acids in length were designed. These peptides were chemically synthesized, spotted on microarrays and screened for reactivity with sera from infected humans. Peptides reacting above the cut-off were validated in enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Peptides identified failed to differentiate between E. multilocularis and E. granulosus infection. The peptide performing best reached 57% sensitivity and 94% specificity. This candidate derived from Echinococcus multilocularis antigen B8/1 and showed strong reactivity to sera from patients infected either with E. multilocularis or E. granulosus. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides proof of principle for the discovery of diagnostically relevant peptides by bioinformatic selection complemented with screening on a high-throughput microarray platform. Our data showed that a single peptide cannot provide sufficient diagnostic sensitivity whereas pooling several peptide antigens improved sensitivity; thus combinations of several peptides may lead the way to new diagnostic tests that replace, or at least complement conventional immunodiagnosis of echinococcosis. Our strategy could prove useful for diagnostic developments in other pathogens.

Effect of Methodological and Ecological Approaches on Heterogeneity of Nest-Site Selection of a Long-Lived Vulture

The application of scientific-based conservation measures requires that sampling methodologies in studies modelling similar ecological aspects produce comparable results making easier their interpretation. We aimed to show how the choice of different methodological and ecological approaches can affect conclusions in nest-site selection studies along different Palearctic meta-populations of an indicator species. First, a multivariate analysis of the variables affecting nest-site selection in a breeding colony of cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) in central Spain was performed. Then, a meta-analysis was applied to establish how methodological and habitat-type factors determine differences and similarities in the results obtained by previous studies that have modelled the forest breeding habitat of the species. Our results revealed patterns in nesting-habitat modelling by the cinereous vulture throughout its whole range: steep and south-facing slopes, great cover of large trees and distance to human activities were generally selected. The ratio and situation of the studied plots (nests/random), the use of plots vs. polygons as sampling units and the number of years of data set determined the variability explained by the model. Moreover, a greater size of the breeding colony implied that ecological and geomorphological variables at landscape level were more influential. Additionally, human activities affected in greater proportion to colonies situated in Mediterranean forests. For the first time, a meta-analysis regarding the factors determining nest-site selection heterogeneity for a single species at broad scale was achieved. It is essential to homogenize and coordinate experimental design in modelling the selection of species' ecological requirements in order to avoid that differences in results among studies would be due to methodological heterogeneity. This would optimize best conservation and management practices for habitats and species in a global context.

Assessment of population structure by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in goat breeds

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) may be used in biodiversity studies and commercial tasks like traceability, paternity testing and selection for suitable genotypes. Twenty-seven SNPs were characterized and genotyped on 250 individuals belonging to eight Italian goat breeds. Multilocus genotype data were used to infer population structure and assign individuals to populations. To estimate the number of groups (K) to test in population structure analysis we used likelihood values and variance of the bootstrap samples, deriving optimal K from a drop in the likelihood and a rise in the variance plots against K.

Expression and diversity of Echinococcus multilocularis AgB genes in secondarily infected mice: evaluating the influence of T-cell immune selection on antigenic variation

The T-cell-mediated immune response exhibits a crucial function in the control of the intrahepatic proliferation of Echinococcus multilocularis larvae in mice and humans, both being natural intermediate hosts of the parasite. Antigen B (AgB), a metabolized Echinococcus spp. lipoprotein, contributes to the modulation of the T-cell immune response, and distinct sites of the corresponding AgB1, AgB3 and AgB4 genes were shown to be under positive selection pressure. Since several AgB gene variants are present in a single Echinococcus metacestode, we used secondary E. multilocularis infections in BALB/c and in athymic nude mice (devoid of T-cell responses) to analyze the effect of the cellular immune response on the expression and diversity of EmAgB1-EmAgB4 genes. We demonstrated hereby that EmAgB transcripts were less abundant in nude mice during the early phase of infection (at one month post-infection), and that EmAgB2 is simultaneously down-regulated when compared to the other three genes. A negative relationship exists between the level of transcription and diversity of EmAgB genes. Moreover, no excess of non-synonymous substitutions was found among the distinct EmAgB alleles from a single host. Together, these results pointed to the effect of purifying selection, which seemed to eliminate the detrimental AgB variants generated during the development of the metacestode within the peritoneal cavity of its intermediate host.

Liver transplantation for patients with metastatic endocrine tumors: single-center experience with 15 patients

In contrast to other secondary liver malignancy, orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) is considered as a treatment modality for nonresectable endocrine liver metastases in selected patients. However, only few series have assessed patient selection criteria and long-term results, and no reports have focused on the impact of new technologies in this regard. Between 1992 and 2004, 28 patients with malignant endocrine tumors underwent evaluation for OLT according to our protocol. Data were entered into a prospective database. During pretransplant evaluation, somatostatin receptor scintigraphy detected extrahepatic metastases not diagnosed in standard imaging in 10 patients. Of them, 3 showed aberrant Ki67 labeling results. One patient was excluded from further evaluation due to severe carcinoid heart. Thus far, 15 patients, 10 men and 5 women, aged 37 to 67 years, were subjected to the transplant procedure (11 deceased donor OLT, 3 living donor liver transplantations, and 1 cluster transplantation). Four patients died during the hospital treatment. The median follow-up of the discharged patients was 60.8 months. The actuarial patient survival was 78.3% at 1 year and 67.2% at 5 years. The actuarial 1-, 2-, and 5-year tumor-free survival amounted to 69.4%, 48.3%, and 48.3%, respectively. Two patients underwent surgery for isolated tumor recurrence. In 2 patients, peptide receptor radiotherapy was carried out because of multilocular recurrent disease. In conclusion, liver transplantation is a realistic therapeutic option for highly selected patients with hepatic metastases of endocrine tumors. Our strategy, which implements strict pretransplant selection and aggressive surgical approach, in case of disease recurrence, in addition to systemic radiopeptide treatment, led to an excellent long-term survival cure, however, is unlikely to be achieved.

Effect of echo time pair selection on quantitative analysis for adrenal tumor characterization with in-phase and opposed-phase MR imaging: initial experience

PURPOSE: To determine the effect of two pairs of echo times (TEs) for in-phase (IP) and opposed-phase (OP) 3.0-T magnetic resonance (MR) imaging on (a) quantitative analysis prospectively in a phantom study and (b) diagnostic accuracy retrospectively in a clinical study of adrenal tumors, with use of various reference standards in the clinical study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A fat-saline phantom was used to perform IP and OP 3.0-T MR imaging for various fat fractions. The institutional review board approved this HIPAA-compliant study, with waiver of informed consent. Single-breath-hold IP and OP 3.0-T MR images in 21 patients (14 women, seven men; mean age, 63 years) with 23 adrenal tumors (16 adenomas, six metastases, one adrenocortical carcinoma) were reviewed. The MR protocol involved two acquisition schemes: In scheme A, the first OP echo (approximately 1.5-msec TE) and the second IP echo (approximately 4.9-msec TE) were acquired. In scheme B, the first IP echo (approximately 2.4-msec TE) and the third OP echo (approximately 5.8-msec TE) were acquired. Quantitative analysis was performed, and analysis of variance was used to test for differences between adenomas and nonadenomas. RESULTS: In the phantom study, scheme B did not enable discrimination among voxels that had small amounts of fat. In the clinical study, no overlap in signal intensity (SI) index values between adenomas and nonadenomas was seen (P < .05) with scheme A. However, with scheme B, no overlap in the adrenal gland SI-to-liver SI ratio between adenomas and nonadenomas was seen (P < .05). With scheme B, no overlap in adrenal gland SI index-to-liver SI index ratio between adenomas and nonadenomas was seen (P < .05). CONCLUSION: This initial experience indicates SI index is the most reliable parameter for characterization of adrenal tumors with 3.0-T MR imaging when obtaining OP echo before IP echo. When acquiring IP echo before OP echo, however, nonadenomas can be mistaken as adenomas with use of the SI index value.

Impact of drug-eluting stent selection on long-term clinical outcomes in patients treated for unprotected left main coronary artery disease: the sirolimus vs paclitaxel drug-eluting stent for left main registry (SP-DELFT)

AIM: To compare the long-term relative efficacy and safety of SES and PES in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for unprotected left main coronary artery (ULMCA) disease and to evaluate the role of lesion location and stenting technique in determining outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: From April 2002 to April 2004, 288 consecutive patients who underwent elective PCI with DES implantation for de novo lesions on ULMCA have been retrospectively selected and analyzed in seven European and US tertiary care centers. All patients had a minimum follow-up of 3 years. SES was used in 152 patients while 136 received PES. Isolated ostial-shaft disease was present in 27% of patients. Distal LM disease (73%) was treated with single and double stent approach in 29.5% and 43.4% of patients respectively. After 3 years, rates of survival free from any of the events investigated, were independent from lesion location and stenting approach and did not differ significantly between SES and PES groups. Freedom from MACE (SES vs. PES) was 76.3% vs. 83.1% in the ostial/shaft group, 80.3% vs. 72.8% in the distal-single stent group and 67.1% vs. 66.2% in the distal-double stent group. Definite stent thrombosis occurred only in 1(0.3%) patient at 439 days. CONCLUSIONS: In elective patients who underwent PCI for de novo lesions in the ostium, shaft or distal ULMCA, long-term clinical outcomes with SES and PES use were similar independently of lesion location and stenting technique.

Patch selection by wintering white-tailed deer : consequences for eastern hemlock regeneration at local and landscape scales

Tsuga canadensis (eastern hemlock) is a highly shade-tolerant, late-successional, and long-lived conifer species found throughout eastern North America. It is most often found in pure or nearly pure stands, because highly acidic and nutrient poor forest floor conditions are thought to favor T. canadensis regeneration while simultaneously limiting the establishment of some hardwood species with greater nutrient requirements. Once a common species, T. canadensis is currently experiencing widescale declines across its range. The hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) is decimating the population across its eastern distribution. Across the Upper Great Lakes region, where the adelgid is currently being held at bay by cold winter temperatures, T. canadensis has been experiencing failures in regeneration attributed, in part, to herbivory by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Deer utilize T. canadensis stands as winter habitat in areas of high snow depth. Tsuga canadensis, once a major component of these forests, currently exists at just a fraction of its pre-settlement abundance due to historic logging and contemporary forest management practices, and what remains is found in small remnant patches surrounded by second- and third-growth deciduous forests. The deer population across the region, however, is likely double that of pre-European settlement times. In this dissertation I explore the relationship between white-tailed deer use of T. canadensis as winter habitat and the effect this use is having on regeneration and forest succession. For this research I quantified stand composition and structure and abiotic variables of elevation and snow depth in 39 randomly selected T. canadensis stands from across the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan. I also quantified composition and the configuration of the landscapes surrounding these stands. I measured relative deer use of T. canadensis stands as pellet group piles deposited in each stand during each of three consecutive winters, 2005-06, 2006-07, and 2007-08. The results of this research suggest that deer use of T. canadensis stands as winter habitat is influenced primarily by snow depth, elevation, and the composition and configuration of the greater landscapes surrounding these stands. Specifically, stands with more heterogeneous landscapes surrounding them (i.e., a patchy mosaic of conifer, deciduous, and open cover) had higher relative deer use than stands surrounded by homogenous deciduous forest cover. Additionally, the intensity of use and the number of stands used was greater in years with higher average snow depth. Tsuga canadensis regeneration in these stands was negatively associated with deer use and Acer saccharum (sugar maple) basal area. Of the 39 stands, 17 and 22 stands had no T. canadensis regeneration in small and large sapling categories, respectively. Acer saccharum was the most common understory tree species, and the importance of A. saccharum in the understory (stems < 10 cm dbh) of the stands was positively associated with overstory A. saccharum dominance. Tsuga canadensis establishment was associated with high-decay coarse woody debris and moss, and deciduous leaf litter inputs in these stands may be limiting access to these important microsites. Furthermore, A. saccharum is more tolerant to the effects of deer herbivory than T. canadensis, giving A. saccharum a competitive advantage in stands being utilized as winter habitat by deer. My research suggests that limited microsite availability, in conjunction with deer herbivory, may be leading to an erosion in T. canadensis patch stability and an altered successional trajectory toward one of A. saccharum dominance, an alternately stable climax species.

Towards greater accuracy in individual-tree mortality regression

Background mortality is an essential component of any forest growth and yield model. Forecasts of mortality contribute largely to the variability and accuracy of model predictions at the tree, stand and forest level. In the present study, I implement and evaluate state-of-the-art techniques to increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, similar to those used in many of the current variants of the Forest Vegetation Simulator, using data from North Idaho and Montana. The first technique addresses methods to correct for bias induced by measurement error typically present in competition variables. The second implements survival regression and evaluates its performance against the traditional logistic regression approach. I selected the regression calibration (RC) algorithm as a good candidate for addressing the measurement error problem. Two logistic regression models for each species were fitted, one ignoring the measurement error, which is the “naïve” approach, and the other applying RC. The models fitted with RC outperformed the naïve models in terms of discrimination when the competition variable was found to be statistically significant. The effect of RC was more obvious where measurement error variance was large and for more shade-intolerant species. The process of model fitting and variable selection revealed that past emphasis on DBH as a predictor variable for mortality, while producing models with strong metrics of fit, may make models less generalizable. The evaluation of the error variance estimator developed by Stage and Wykoff (1998), and core to the implementation of RC, in different spatial patterns and diameter distributions, revealed that the Stage and Wykoff estimate notably overestimated the true variance in all simulated stands, but those that are clustered. Results show a systematic bias even when all the assumptions made by the authors are guaranteed. I argue that this is the result of the Poisson-based estimate ignoring the overlapping area of potential plots around a tree. Effects, especially in the application phase, of the variance estimate justify suggested future efforts of improving the accuracy of the variance estimate. The second technique implemented and evaluated is a survival regression model that accounts for the time dependent nature of variables, such as diameter and competition variables, and the interval-censored nature of data collected from remeasured plots. The performance of the model is compared with the traditional logistic regression model as a tool to predict individual tree mortality. Validation of both approaches shows that the survival regression approach discriminates better between dead and alive trees for all species. In conclusion, I showed that the proposed techniques do increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, and are a promising first step towards the next generation of background mortality models. I have also identified the next steps to undertake in order to advance mortality models further.