Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Spring Phenology of Butterflies : The role of seasonal variation in life-cycle regulation

Animals and plants in temperate regions must adapt their life cycle to pronounced seasonal variation. The research effort that has gone into studying these cyclical life history events, or phenological traits, has increased greatly in recent decades. As phenological traits are often correlated to temperature, they are relevant to study in terms of understanding the effect of short term environmental variation as well as long term climate change. Because of this, changes in phenology are the most obvious and among the most commonly reported responses to climate change. Moreover, phenological traits are important for fitness as they determine the biotic and abiotic environment an individual encounters. Fine-tuning of phenology allows for synchronisation at a local scale to mates, food resources and appropriate weather conditions. On a between-population scale, variation in phenology may reflect regional variation in climate. Such differences can not only give insights to life cycle adaptation, but also to how populations may respond to environmental change through time. This applies both on an ecological scale through phenotypic plasticity as well as an evolutionary scale through genetic adaptation. In this thesis I have used statistical and experimental methods to investigate both the larger geographical patterns as well as mechanisms of fine-tuning of phenology of several butterfly species. The main focus, however, is on the orange tip butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines, in Sweden and the United Kingdom. I show a contrasting effect of spring temperature and winter condition on spring phenology for three out of the five studied butterfly species. For A. cardamines there are population differences in traits responding to these environmental factors between and within Sweden and the UK that suggest adaptation to local environmental conditions. All populations show a strong negative plastic relationship between spring temperature and spring phenology, while the opposite is true for winter cold duration. Spring phenology is shifted earlier with increasing cold duration. The environmental variables show correlations, for example, during a warm year a short winter delays phenology while a warm spring speeds phenology up. Correlations between the environmental variables also occur through space, as the locations that have long winters also have cold springs. The combined effects of these two environmental variables cause a complex geographical pattern of phenology across the UK and Sweden. When predicting phenology with future climate change or interpreting larger geographical patterns one must therefore have a good enough understanding of how the phenology is controlled and take the relevant environmental factors in to account. In terms of the effect of phenological change, it should be discussed with regards to change in life cycle timing among interacting species. For example, the phenology of the host plants is important for A. cardamines fitness, and it is also the main determining factor for oviposition. In summary, this thesis shows that the broad geographical pattern of phenology of the butterflies is formed by counteracting environmental variables, but that there also are significant population differences that enable fine-tuning of phenology according to the seasonal progression and variation at the local scale.

Nitrogen cycle of effluent-irrigated energy crop plantations:from wastewater treatment to thermo-chemical conversion processes

This paper reviews nitrogen (N) cycle of effluent-irrigated energy crop plantations, starting from wastewater treatment to thermo-chemical conversion processes. In wastewater, N compounds contribute to eutrophication and toxicity in water cycle. Removal of N via vegetative filters and specifically in short-rotation energy plantations, is a relatively new approach to managing nitrogenous effluents. Though combustion of energy crops is in principle carbon neutral, in practice, N content may contribute to NOx emissions with significant global warming potential. Intermediate pyrolysis produces advanced fuels while reducing such emissions. By operating at intermediate temperature (500°C), it retains most N in char as pyrrolic-N, pyridinic-N, quaternary-N and amines. In addition, biochar provides long-term sequestration of carbon in soils.

Practical photovoltaic simulator with a cross tackling control strategy based on the first-hand duty cycle processing

This paper proposes a methodological scheme for the photovoltaic (PV) simulator design. With the advantages of a digital controller system, linear interpolation is proposed for precise fitting with higher computational efficiency. A novel control strategy that directly tackles two different duty cycles is proposed and implemented to achieve a full-range operation including short circuit (SC) and open circuit (OC) conditions. Systematic design procedures for both hardware and algorithm are explained, and a prototype is built. Experimental results confirm an accurate steady state performance under different load conditions, including SC and OC. This low power apparatus can be adopted for PV education and research with a limited budget.

Short- and long-term changes in corneal aberrations and axial length induced by orthokeratology in children are not correlated

PURPOSE: To assess the correlation between changes in corneal aberrations and the 2-year change in axial length in children fitted with orthokeratology (OK) contact lenses. METHODS: Thirty-one subjects 6 to 12 years of age and with myopia −0.75 to −4.00DS and astigmatism ≤1.00DC were fitted with OK. Measurements of axial length and corneal topography were taken at regular intervals over a 2-year period. Corneal topography at baseline and after 3 and 24 months of OK lens wear was used to derive higher-order corneal aberrations (HOA) that were correlated with OK-induced axial length changes at 2 years. RESULTS: Significant changes in C3, C4, C4, root mean square (RMS) secondary astigmatism and fourth and total HOA were found with both 3 and 24 months of OK lens wear in comparison with baseline (all P0.05). Coma angle of orientation changed significantly pre-OK in comparison with 3 and 24 months post-OK as well as secondary astigmatism angle of orientation pre-OK in comparison with 24 months post-OK (all P0.05). DISCUSSION: Short-term and long-term OK lens wear induces significant changes in corneal aberrations that are not significantly correlated with changes in axial elongation after 2-years.

Arctic ecosystem responses to changes in water availability and warming: Short and long-term responses

Arctic soils store close to 14% of the global soil carbon. Most of arctic carbon is stored below ground in the permafrost. With climate warming the decomposition of the soil carbon could represent a significant positive feedback to global greenhouse warming. Recent evidence has shown that the temperature of the Arctic is already increasing, and this change is associated mostly with anthropogenic activities. Warmer soils will contribute to permafrost degradation and accelerate organic matter decay and thus increase the flux of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. Temperature and water availability are also important drivers of ecosystem performance, but effects can be complex and in opposition. Temperature and moisture changes can affect ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross primary productivity (GPP) independently; an increase in the net ecosystem exchange can be a result of either a decrease in ER or an increase in GPP. Therefore, understanding the effects of changes in ecosystem water and temperature on the carbon flux components becomes key to predicting the responses of the Arctic to climate change. The overall goal of this work was to determine the response of arctic systems to simulated climate change scenarios with simultaneous changes in temperature and moisture. A temperature and hydrological manipulation in a naturally-drained lakebed was used to assess the short-term effect of changes in water and temperature on the carbon cycle. Also, as part of International Tundra Experiment Network (ITEX), I determined the long-term effect of warming on the carbon cycle in a natural hydrological gradient established in the mid 90's. I found that the carbon balance is highly sensitive to short-term changes in water table and warming. However, over longer time periods, hydrological and temperature changed soil biophysical properties, nutrient cycles, and other ecosystem structural and functional components that down regulated GPP and ER, especially in wet areas.

Database of the GLAMAP project

A uniform chronology for foraminifera-based sea surface temperature records has been established in more than 120 sediment cores obtained from the equatorial and eastern Atlantic up to the Arctic Ocean. The chronostratigraphy of the last 30,000 years is mainly based on published d18O records and 14C ages from accelerator mass spectrometry, converted into calendar-year ages. The high-precision age control provides the database necessary for the uniform reconstruction of the climate interval of the Last Glacial Maximum within the GLAMAP-2000 project.

Cumulative live birth rates after one or more complete cycles of IVF : a population-based study of linked cycle data from 178 898 women

© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Computer Assisted Content Analysis of the print press coverarge of corruption in Hungary

Coverage of corruption in the Hungarian media was analyzed using four online news portals. Three of them, Magyar Nemzet Online (short name: MNO, web: mno.hu), Népszava (web: nepszava.hu) and Heti Világgazdaság (web: hvg.hu) are also available as newspapers but the content of these papers is different from the online form to a certain extent. The news portal Origo (web: origo.hu) has no print version.

Effect of enhanced pCO2 levels on the production of dissolved organic carbon and transparent exopolymer particles in short-term bioassay experiments

It has been proposed that increasing levels of pCO2 in the surface ocean will lead to more partitioning of the organic carbon fixed by marine primary production into the dissolved rather than the particulate fraction. This process may result in enhanced accumulation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the surface ocean and/or concurrent accumulation of transparent exopolymer particles (TEPs), with important implications for the functioning of the marine carbon cycle. We investigated this in shipboard bioassay experiments that considered the effect of four different pCO2 scenarios (ambient, 550, 750 and 1000 µatm) on unamended natural phytoplankton communities from a range of locations in the northwest European shelf seas. The environmental settings, in terms of nutrient availability, phytoplankton community structure and growth conditions, varied considerably between locations. We did not observe any strong or consistent effect of pCO2 on DOC production. There was a significant but highly variable effect of pCO2 on the production of TEPs. In three of the five experiments, variation of TEP production between pCO2 treatments was caused by the effect of pCO2 on phytoplankton growth rather than a direct effect on TEP production. In one of the five experiments, there was evidence of enhanced TEP production at high pCO2 (twice as much production over the 96 h incubation period in the 750 ?atm treatment compared with the ambient treatment) independent of indirect effects, as hypothesised by previous studies. Our results suggest that the environmental setting of experiments (community structure, nutrient availability and occurrence of phytoplankton growth) is a key factor determining the TEP response to pCO2 perturbations.

Under-ice export flux measurements by short-term drifting sediment traps at 27 stations in the Arctic Ocean during summer 1995, 1997, and 2012

A critical question regarding the organic carbon cycle in the Arctic Ocean is whether the decline in ice extent and thickness and the associated increase in solar irradiance in the upper ocean will result in increased primary production and particulate organic carbon (POC) export. To assess spatial and temporal variability in POC export, under-ice export fluxes were measured with short-term sediment traps in the northern Laptev Sea in July-August-September 1995, north of the Fram Strait in July 1997, and in the Central Arctic in August-September 2012. Sediment traps were deployed at 2-5 m and 20-25 m under ice for periods ranging from 8.5 to 71 h. In addition to POC fluxes, total particulate matter, chlorophyll a, biogenic particulate silica, phytoplankton, and zooplankton fecal pellet fluxes were measured to evaluate the amount and composition of the material exported in the upper Arctic Ocean. Whereas elevated export fluxes observed on and near the Laptev Sea shelf were likely the combined result of high primary production, resuspension, and release of particulate matter from melting ice, low export fluxes above the central basins despite increased light availability during the record minimum ice extent of 2012 suggest that POC export was limited by nutrient supply during summer. These results suggest that the ongoing decline in ice cover affects export fluxes differently on Arctic shelves and over the deep Arctic Ocean and that POC export is likely to remain low above the central basins unless additional nutrients are supplied to surface waters.

Is the Russell Cycle a true cycle? Multidecadal zooplankton and climate trends in the western English Channel

The Russell Cycle is one of the classical examples of climate influence on biological oceanography, represented as shifts in the marine plankton over several decades with warm and cool conditions. While the time-series data associated with the phenomenon indicate cyclical patterns, the question remains whether or not the Russell Cycle should be considered a “true cycle”. Zooplankton time-series data from 1924 to 2011 from the western English Channel were analysed with principal component (PC), correlation and spectral analyses to determine the dominant trends, and cyclic frequencies of the Russell Cycle indicators in relation to long-term hydroclimatic indices. PC1 accounted for 37.4% of the variability in the zooplankton data with the main contributions from non-clupeid fish larvae, southwestern zooplankton, and overall zooplankton biovolume. For PC2 (14.6% of data variance), the dominant groups were northern fish larvae, non-sardine eggs, and southern fish larvae. Sardine eggs were the major contributors to PC3 (representing 12.1% of data variance). No significant correlations were observed between the above three components and climate indices: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and local seawater temperature. Significant 44- and 29-year frequencies were observed for PC3, but the physical mechanisms driving the cycles are unclear. Harmonic analysis did not reveal any significant frequencies in the physical variables or in PCs 1 and 2. To a large extent, this is due to the dominant cycles in all datasets generally being long term (>50 years or so) and not readily resolved in the examined time frame of 88 years, hence restricting the ability to draw firm conclusions on the multidecadal relationship between zooplankton community dynamics in the western English Channel and environmental indices. Thus, the zooplankton time-series often associated and represented as the Russell Cycle cannot be concluded as being truly cyclical.

Is the Russell Cycle a true cycle? Multidecadal zooplankton and climate trends in the western English Channel

The Russell Cycle is one of the classical examples of climate influence on biological oceanography, represented as shifts in the marine plankton over several decades with warm and cool conditions. While the time-series data associated with the phenomenon indicate cyclical patterns, the question remains whether or not the Russell Cycle should be considered a “true cycle”. Zooplankton time-series data from 1924 to 2011 from the western English Channel were analysed with principal component (PC), correlation and spectral analyses to determine the dominant trends, and cyclic frequencies of the Russell Cycle indicators in relation to long-term hydroclimatic indices. PC1 accounted for 37.4% of the variability in the zooplankton data with the main contributions from non-clupeid fish larvae, southwestern zooplankton, and overall zooplankton biovolume. For PC2 (14.6% of data variance), the dominant groups were northern fish larvae, non-sardine eggs, and southern fish larvae. Sardine eggs were the major contributors to PC3 (representing 12.1% of data variance). No significant correlations were observed between the above three components and climate indices: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and local seawater temperature. Significant 44- and 29-year frequencies were observed for PC3, but the physical mechanisms driving the cycles are unclear. Harmonic analysis did not reveal any significant frequencies in the physical variables or in PCs 1 and 2. To a large extent, this is due to the dominant cycles in all datasets generally being long term (>50 years or so) and not readily resolved in the examined time frame of 88 years, hence restricting the ability to draw firm conclusions on the multidecadal relationship between zooplankton community dynamics in the western English Channel and environmental indices. Thus, the zooplankton time-series often associated and represented as the Russell Cycle cannot be concluded as being truly cyclical.