Future contributions of crop modelling - from heuristics and supporting decision making to understanding genetic regulation and aiding crop improvement

Crop modelling has evolved over the last 30 or so years in concert with advances in crop physiology, crop ecology and computing technology. Having reached a respectable degree of acceptance, it is appropriate to review briefly the course of developments in crop modelling and to project what might be major contributions of crop modelling in the future. Two major opportunities are envisioned for increased modelling activity in the future. One opportunity is in a continuing central, heuristic role to support scientific investigation, to facilitate decision making by crop managers, and to aid in education. Heuristic activities will also extend to the broader system-level issues of environmental and ecological aspects of crop production. The second opportunity is projected as a prime contributor in understanding and advancing the genetic regulation of plant performance and plant improvement. Physiological dissection and modelling of traits provides an avenue by which crop modelling could contribute to enhancing integration of molecular genetic technologies in crop improvement. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Adsorption in slit-like pores of activated carbons: Improvement of the Horvath and Kawazoe method

Anew thermodynamic approach has been developed in this paper to analyze adsorption in slitlike pores. The equilibrium is described by two thermodynamic conditions: the Helmholtz free energy must be minimal, and the grand potential functional at that minimum must be negative. This approach has led to local isotherms that describe adsorption in the form of a single layer or two layers near the pore walls. In narrow pores local isotherms have one step that could be either very sharp but continuous or discontinuous benchlike for a definite range of pore width. The latter reflects a so-called 0 --> 1 monolayer transition. In relatively wide pores, local isotherms have two steps, of which the first step corresponds to the appearance of two layers near the pore walls, while the second step corresponds to the filling of the space between these layers. All features of local isotherms are in agreement with the results obtained from the density functional theory and Monte Carlo simulations. The approach is used for determining pore size distributions of carbon materials. We illustrate this with the benzene adsorption data on activated carbon at 20, 50, and 80 degreesC, argon adsorption on activated carbon Norit ROX at 87.3 K, and nitrogen adsorption on activated carbon Norit R1 at 77.3 K.

A probabilistic analysis of Clostridium perfringens growth during food service operations

The purpose of this study was threefold: first, the study was designed to illustrate the use of data and information collected in food safety surveys in a quantitative risk assessment. In this case, the focus was on the food service industry; however, similar data from other parts of the food chain could be similarly incorporated. The second objective was to quantitatively describe and better understand the role that the food service industry plays in the safety of food. The third objective was to illustrate the additional decision-making information that is available when uncertainty and variability are incorporated into the modelling of systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Point source inoculation of Mesocyclops (Copepoda : Cyclopidae) gives widespread control of Ochlerotatus and Aedes (Diptera : Culicidae) immatures in service manholes and pits in North Queensland, Australia

This study details the novel application of predacious copepods, genus Mesocyclops, for control of Ochlerotatus tremulus (Theobald) group and Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquito larvae in subterranean habitats in north Queensland, Australia. During June 1997, 50 Mesocyclops sp. I were inoculated into one service manhole in South Townsville. Wet season rainfall and flooding in both 1998 and 2000 was responsible for the dispersal of copepods via the underground pipe system to 29 of 35 manholes over an area of 1.33 km(2). Significant reductions in Aedes and Ochlerotatus larvae ensued. In these habitats, Mesocyclops and Metacyclops were able to survive dry periods, when substrate moisture content ranged from 13.8 to 79.9%. At the semiarid inland towns of Hughenden and Richmond, cracking clay soil prevents drainage of water from shallow service pits where Oc. tremulus immatures numbered from 292-18,460 per pit. Introduction of Mesocyclops copepods into these sites during May 1999 resulted in 100% control of Oc. tremulus for 18 mo. One uninoculated pit subsequently became positive for Mesocyclops with resultant control of mosquito larvae.

Ubiquitous travel service delivery

Free independent travelers require flexible, reactive service delivery due to their regularly changing location and activities and the lack of a wired Internet connection. A ubiquitous travel service delivery system that is able to dynamically deliver services in response to relevant events, such as changing location, availability of new last-minute specials, work opportunities, and safety issues can provide added value while retaining the flexibility that is so important to independent travelers. This article describes such a system. An engineering design research approach has been adopted to design the system. Issues addressed include traveler and service states and events, contexts, situations, and situation-action rules. An architecture is proposed that is based on distributed, cooperating software agents and mobile data technologies. The role of these agents is to continuously monitor situations that are occurring in the physical and virtual service spaces and to take the required action for any situations that are relevant to the traveler.

Application of fairness theory to service failures and service recovery

This article presents a fairness theory-based conceptual framework for studying and managing consumers’ emotions during service recovery attempts. The conceptual framework highlights the central role played by counterfactual thinking and accountability. Findings from five focus groups are also presented to lend further support to the conceptual framework. Essentially, the article argues that a service failure event triggers an emotional response in the consumer, and from here the consumer commences an assessment of the situation, considering procedural justice, interactional justice, and distributive justice elements, while engaging in counterfactual thinking and apportioning accountability. More specifically, the customer assesses whether the service provider could and should have done something more to remedy the problem and how the customer would have felt had these actions been taken. The authors argue that during this process situational effort is taken into account when assessing accountability. When service providers do not appear to exhibit an appropriate level of effort, consumers attribute this to the service provider not caring. This in turn leads to the customer feeling more negative emotions, such as anger and frustration. Managerial implications of the study are discussed.

The role of gender in reactions to service failure and recovery

Male and female consumers place different emphasis on elements of the service recovery process. Perceptions were influenced by gender of the service provider and by a match of customer and service provider gender. The study, an experimental design with 712 respondents, found that when service providers, irrespective of gender, display concern and give customers voice and a sizable compensation, both men and women reported more positive attitudes compared with when this was not so. Combinations of high voice with high outcome and high voice with high concern were especially important in positively influencing perceptions of effort, regardless of gender. However, the authors also found that there were significant differences between male and female respondents regarding their perceptions of how service recovery should be handled. Women want their views heard during service recovery attempts and to be allowed to provide input. Men, in contrast, do not view voice as important.

Food Cent$: Educating mothers with a mental illness about nutrition

People with a mental illness can have deficits in a range of areas, including food skills. Mothers who have a mental illness and have residential care of their children are particularly vulnerable to experiencing food insecurity. The food skills programme known as Food Cent$ is a new way of spending money on food using the 10-plan, so that people can learn to balance their diet and their food budget. Occupational therapists in a mental health rehabilitation service incorporated the use of Food Cent$ into a parenting programme for mothers with a mental illness. A pilot study was conducted to identify whether the Food Cent$ programme influenced behaviours and attitudes towards food and food selection and preparation and reduced grocery expenditure. The participants were six mothers with a mental illness who had children under 5 years of age in their care. A focus group was conducted to gain insight into the experiences of mothers who had attended the programme. Supermarket receipts were collected before and after the project to determine changes in dietary practices. The results indicated that attending Food Cent$ contributed to an improvement in dietary intake, food selection and preparation, and grocery expenditure. Further research is required into the effectiveness of this programme with other target groups likely to experience food insecurity.

Warranty and optimal reliability improvement through product development

For products sold with warranty, the warranty servicing cost can be reduced by improving product reliability through a development process. However, this increases the unit manufacturing cost. Optimal development must achieve a trade-off between these two costs. The outcome of the development process is uncertain and needs to be taken into account in the determination of the optimal development effort. The paper develops a model where this uncertainty is taken into account. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A randomized trial of aggressive lipid reduction for improvement of myocardial ischemia, symptom status, and vascular function in patients with coronary artery disease not amenable to intervention

PURPOSE: To determine the effects of aggressive lipid lowering on markers of ischemia, resistance vessel function, atherosclerotic burden, and Symptom status in patients with symptomatic coronary artery disease. METHODS: Sixty consecutive patients with coronary artery disease that was unsuitable for revascularization were assigned randomly to either usual therapy of lipids for patients with a low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol target level <116 mg/dL, or to a, more aggressive lipid-lowering strategy involving up to 80 mg/d of atorvastatin, with a target LDL cholesterol level <77 mg/dL. The extent and severity of inducible ischemia (by dobutamine echocardiography), vascular function.(brachial artery reactivity), atheroma burden (carotid intima-media thickness), and symptom status were evaluated blindly at baseline and after 12 weeks of treatment. RESULTS: After 12 weeks of treatment, patients in the aggressive therapy group had a significantly greater decrease in mean (+/- SD) LDL cholesterol level than those in the usual care group (29 +/- 38 mg/dL vs. 7 +/- 24 mg/dL, P = 0.03). Patients in the aggressive therapy group had a reduction in the number of ischemic wall segments (mean between-group difference of 1.3; 95% confidence interval: 0.1 to 2.0; P = 0.04), flow-mediated dilatation (mean between-group difference of 5.9%; 95% confidence interval: 2.5% to 9.4%; P = 0.001), and angina score after 12 weeks. There were no significant changes in atherosclerotic burden in either group. CONCLUSION: Patients with symptomatic coronary artery disease who are treated with aggressive lipid lowering have improvement of symptom status and ischemia that appears to reflect improved vascular function but not atheroma burden. Am J Med. 2003;114:445-453. (C) 2003 by Excerpta Medica Inc.