Sobre a imigração ilegal na Europa e os espaços de exceção: o caso dos centros de internamento para estrangeiros na Espanha

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Avaliação de políticas ambientais: desafios e perspectivas

O presente artigo tem como objetivo contribuir para o debate sobre a inserção da avaliação no ciclo das políticas ambientais no Brasil, discutindo desafios e perspectivas que se apresentam. Para tanto, é feito um resgate histórico da evolução da avaliação, discutindo o conceito, classificação e usos da avaliação e finalmente a avaliação de políticas ambientais, com base nos pressupostos de que ferramentas desenvolvidas para a avaliação de políticas sociais podem ser adaptadas para avaliar políticas ambientais, e ferramentas da área ambiental também podem contribuir para o avanço do campo de estudo. As conclusões mostram que os desafios são grandes, principalmente na obtenção de dados. Em um primeiro momento, talvez não seja possível avaliar impactos de forma ampla, mas é importante avaliar critérios relativos à transparência, equidade e legitimidade, bem como reconstruir as teorias de implementação. O uso automático dos resultados é pouco provável, mas se a avaliação faz parte de um arcabouço mais amplo de melhoria da gestão pública, eles repercutem no aperfeiçoamento das políticas.

Organização e dinâmica do Conselho Municipal de Segurança Alimentar e Nutricional de São Paulo: implicações para a sua atuação na construção da política municipal de Segurança Alimentar e Nutricional

OBJETIVO: Analisar o funcionamento, a organização e a participação política internas do Conselho Municipal de Segurança Alimentar e Nutricional de São Paulo e quais as possíveis implicações decorrentes na sua atuação no processo de construção de uma política municipal de segurança alimentar e nutricional. MÉTODOS: O estudo de abordagem qualitativa constituiu-se em três etapas: análise documental de atas; observação de reuniões e realização de entrevistas semi-estruturadas com conselheiros, considerados informantes-chave. O eixo de análise foi a participação política do Conselho considerando seus aspectos internos, como composição, dinâmica de funcionamento e participação política de seus membros e a relação destes tópicos com a atuação do Conselho na definição e elaboração de uma política municipal de segurança alimentar e nutricional. RESULTADOS: O perfil "intelectualizado" dos conselheiros não é representativo da maioria da população e facilita o afastamento de questões concretas nas discussões do conselho; a rígida dinâmica interna e a assimetria entre seus membros dificultam, de forma geral, a participação ativa dos conselheiros e, especificamente, as discussões sobre políticas de segurança alimentar e nutricional. Os denominados "conselheiros-militantes" apresentam participação diferenciada, mais crítica, com maior domínio sobre o tema e suas discussões. CONCLUSÃO: O perfil dos conselheiros, a organização interna do Conselho, além da complexidade do tema e sua pequena inserção na sociedade, fazem que o conselho atue distante das demandas sociais e de forma incipiente com relação às políticas de segurança alimentar e nutricional no município.

France, Germany and the United Kingdom Cooperation in Times of Turbulence

This thesis deals with cooperation between France, Germany and the United Kingdom within the area of foreign and security policy. Two case studies are presented, one of them concerning cooperation between the three states within and outside institutions in 1980 following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the other dealing with cooperation concerning the crisis in Macedonia in 2001. In accordance with the approach of neoliberal institutionalism the primary hypothesis is that cooperation is primarily determined by the interests of states but it is also limited by norms and affected by the institutions of which the three states are members. The study describes the large variety of forms of cooperation that exist between France, Germany and the United Kingdom, in which the United States also plays an important part, and which also includes their cooperation within a number of international institutions. The study also points to the new forms of interaction between states and institutions that have come about since the Cold War ended, and which give a stronger role to institutions and the cooperation between them. Still, however, states retain a decisive role in cooperation within the field of foreign and security policy.

Neighbourhoods Mobilise the Troops - Community Organising, Violence and Governmentality

The article reflects on the difficult relation between community work against domestic violence and local crime prevention under the conditions of the neoliberal state that cuts down on social benefits and promotes self-help, active citizenship and self-responsibility instead while at the same time restoring the punishing state with its strict regime of law-and-order. The author describes a project Tarantula - she started herself while being a social worker in Hamburg, Germany. Tarantula was aimed at strengthening social networks and the neighbours' willingness to get involved in favour of affected women. Although conceptualized as an emancipatory approach referring to community organizing in the tradition of social movements it is questionable whether and how this can really work in the current situation. At present, the field of crime control is being reconfigured as a result of political and administrative decisions, which, for their part, are based on a new structure of social relations and cultural attitudes. The demolition of the 'welfare state' means the re-coding of the security policy that facilitates the development of interventionist techniques that govern and control individuals through their own ability to act.

Impacto del cambio climático sobre los usos del agua en Europa

Esta Tesis realiza una contribución metodológica al estudio del impacto del cambio climático sobre los usos del agua, centrándose particularmente en la agricultura. Tomando en consideración su naturaleza distinta, la metodología aborda de forma integral los impactos sobre la agricultura de secano y la agricultura de regadío. Para ello incorpora diferentes modelos agrícolas y de agua que conjuntamente con las simulaciones de los escenarios climáticos permiten determinar indicadores de impacto basados en la productividad de los cultivos, para el caso de la agricultura de secano, e indicadores de impacto basados en la disponibilidad de agua para irrigación, para el caso de la agricultura de regadío. La metodología toma en consideración el efecto de la variabilidad climática en la agricultura, evaluando las necesidades de adaptación y gestión asociadas a los impactos medios y a la variabilidad en la productividad de los cultivos y el efecto de la variabilidad hidrológica en la disponibilidad de agua para regadío. Considerando la gran cantidad de información proporcionada por las salidas de las simulaciones de los escenarios climáticos y su complejidad para procesarla, se ha desarrollado una herramienta de cálculo automatizada que integra diferentes escenarios climáticos, métodos y modelos que permiten abordar el impacto del cambio climático sobre la agricultura, a escala de grandes extensiones. El procedimiento metodológico parte del análisis de los escenarios climáticos en situación actual (1961-1990) y futura (2071-2100) para determinar su fiabilidad y conocer qué dicen exactamente las proyecciones climáticas a cerca de los impactos esperados en las principales variables que intervienen en el ciclo hidrológico. El análisis hidrológico se desarrolla en los ámbitos territoriales de la planificación hidrológica en España, considerando la disponibilidad de información para validar los resultados en escenario de control. Se utilizan como datos observados las series de escorrentía en régimen natural estimadas el modelo hidrológico SIMPA que está calibrado en la totalidad del territorio español. Al trabajar a escala de grandes extensiones, la limitada disponibilidad de datos o la falta de modelos hidrológicos correctamente calibrados para obtener los valores de escorrentía, muchas veces dificulta el proceso de evaluación, por tanto, en este estudio se plantea una metodología que compara diferentes métodos de interpolación y alternativas para generar series anuales de escorrentía que minimicen el sesgo con respecto a los valores observados. Así, en base a la alternativa que genera los mejores resultados, se obtienen series mensuales corregidas a partir de las simulaciones de los modelos climáticos regionales (MCR). Se comparan cuatro métodos de interpolación para obtener los valores de las variables a escala de cuenca hidrográfica, haciendo énfasis en la capacidad de cada método para reproducir los valores observados. Las alternativas utilizadas consideran la utilización de la escorrentía directa simulada por los MCR y la escorrentía media anual calculada utilizando cinco fórmulas climatológicas basadas en el índice de aridez. Los resultados se comparan además con la escorrentía global de referencia proporcionada por la UNH/GRDC que en la actualidad es el “mejor estimador” de la escorrentía actual a gran escala. El impacto del cambio climático en la agricultura de secano se evalúa considerando el efecto combinado de los riesgos asociados a las anomalías dadas por los cambios en la media y la variabilidad de la productividad de los cultivos en las regiones agroclimáticas de Europa. Este procedimiento facilita la determinación de las necesidades de adaptación y la identificación de los impactos regionales que deben ser abordados con mayor urgencia en función de los riesgos y oportunidades identificadas. Para ello se utilizan funciones regionales de productividad que han sido desarrolladas y calibradas en estudios previos en el ámbito europeo. Para el caso de la agricultura de regadío, se utiliza la disponibilidad de agua para irrigación como un indicador del impacto bajo escenarios de cambio climático. Considerando que la mayoría de estudios se han centrado en evaluar la disponibilidad de agua en régimen natural, en este trabajo se incorpora el efecto de las infraestructuras hidráulicas al momento de calcular el recurso disponible bajo escenarios de cambio climático Este análisis se desarrolla en el ámbito español considerando la disponibilidad de información, tanto de las aportaciones como de los modelos de explotación de los sistemas hidráulicos. Para ello se utiliza el modelo de gestión de recursos hídricos WAAPA (Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Assessment) que permite calcular la máxima demanda que puede atenderse bajo determinados criterios de garantía. Se utiliza las series mensuales de escorrentía observadas y las series mensuales de escorrentía corregidas por la metodología previamente planteada con el objeto de evaluar la disponibilidad de agua en escenario de control. Se construyen proyecciones climáticas utilizando los cambios en los valores medios y la variabilidad de las aportaciones simuladas por los MCR y también utilizando una fórmula climatológica basada en el índice de aridez. Se evalúan las necesidades de gestión en términos de la satisfacción de las demandas de agua para irrigación a través de la comparación entre la disponibilidad de agua en situación actual y la disponibilidad de agua bajo escenarios de cambio climático. Finalmente, mediante el desarrollo de una herramienta de cálculo que facilita el manejo y automatización de una gran cantidad de información compleja obtenida de las simulaciones de los MCR se obtiene un proceso metodológico que evalúa de forma integral el impacto del cambio climático sobre la agricultura a escala de grandes extensiones, y a la vez permite determinar las necesidades de adaptación y gestión en función de las prioridades identificadas. ABSTRACT This thesis presents a methodological contribution for studying the impact of climate change on water use, focusing particularly on agriculture. Taking into account the different nature of the agriculture, this methodology addresses the impacts on rainfed and irrigated agriculture, integrating agricultural and water planning models with climate change simulations scenarios in order to determine impact indicators based on crop productivity and water availability for irrigation, respectively. The methodology incorporates the effect of climate variability on agriculture, assessing adaptation and management needs associated with mean impacts, variability in crop productivity and the effect of hydrologic variability on water availability for irrigation. Considering the vast amount of information provided by the outputs of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations and also its complexity for processing it, a tool has been developed to integrate different climate scenarios, methods and models to address the impact of climate change on agriculture at large scale. Firstly, a hydrological analysis of the climate change scenarios is performed under current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) situation in order to know exactly what the models projections say about the expected impact on the main variables involved in the hydrological cycle. Due to the availability of information for validating the results in current situation, the hydrological analysis is developed in the territorial areas of water planning in Spain, where the values of naturalized runoff have been estimated by the hydrological model SIMPA, which are used as observed data. By working in large-scale studies, the limited availability of data or lack of properly calibrated hydrological model makes difficult to obtain runoff time series. So as, a methodology is proposed to compare different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimize the bias with respect to observed values. Thus, the best alternative is selected in order to obtain bias-corrected monthly time series from the RCM simulations. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from different RCM are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behavior of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index. The results are also compared with the global runoff reference provided by the UNH/GRDC dataset, as a contrast of the “best estimator” of current runoff on a large scale. Secondly, the impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture is assessed considering the combined effect of the risks associated with anomalies given by changes in the mean and variability of crop productivity in the agro-climatic regions of Europe. This procedure allows determining adaptation needs based on the regional impacts that must be addressed with greater urgency in light of the risks and opportunities identified. Statistical models of productivity response are used for this purpose which have been developed and calibrated in previous European study. Thirdly, the impact of climate change on irrigated agriculture is evaluated considering the water availability for irrigation as an indicator of the impact. Given that most studies have focused on assessing water availability in natural regime, the effect of regulation is incorporated in this approach. The analysis is developed in the Spanish territory considering the available information of the observed stream flows and the regulation system. The Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Assessment (WAAPA) model is used in this study, which allows obtaining the maximum demand that could be supplied under certain conditions (demand seasonal distribution, water supply system management, and reliability criteria) for different policy alternatives. The monthly bias corrected time series obtained by previous methodology are used in order to assess water availability in current situation. Climate change projections are constructed taking into account the variation in mean and coefficient of variation simulated by the RCM. The management needs are determined by the agricultural demands satisfaction through the comparison between water availability under current conditions and under climate change projections. Therefore, the methodology allows evaluating the impact of climate change on agriculture to large scale, using a tool that facilitates the process of a large amount of complex information provided by the RCM simulations, in order to determine the adaptation and management needs in accordance with the priorities of the indentified impacts.

Implantación de un sistema de seguridad perimetral

Este proyecto está desarrollado sobre la seguridad de redes, y más concretamente en la seguridad perimetral. Para mostrar esto se hará una definición teórico-práctica de un sistema de seguridad perimetral. Para ello se ha desglosado el contenido en dos partes fundamentales, la primera incide en la base teórica relativa a la seguridad perimetral y los elementos más importantes que intervienen en ella, y la segunda parte, que es la implantación de un sistema de seguridad perimetral habitual en un entorno empresarial. En la primera parte se exponen los elementos más importantes de la seguridad perimetral, incidiendo en elementos como pueden ser cortafuegos, IDS/IPS, antivirus, proxies, radius, gestores de ancho de banda, etc. Sobre cada uno de ellos se explica su funcionamiento y posible configuración. La segunda parte y más extensa a la vez que práctica, comprende todo el diseño, implantación y gestión de un sistema de seguridad perimetral típico, es decir, el que sería de aplicación para la mayoría de las empresas actuales. En esta segunda parte se encontrarán primeramente las necesidades del cliente y situación actual en lo que a seguridad se refiere, con los cuales se diseñará la arquitectura de red. Para comenzar será necesario definir formalmente unos requisitos previos, para satisfacer estos requisitos se diseñará el mapa de red con los elementos específicos seleccionados. La elección de estos elementos se hará en base a un estudio de mercado para escoger las mejores soluciones de cada fabricante y que más se adecúen a los requisitos del cliente. Una vez ejecutada la implementación, se diseñará un plan de pruebas, realizando las pruebas de casos de uso de los diferentes elementos de seguridad para asegurar su correcto funcionamiento. El siguiente paso, una vez verificado que todos los elementos funcionan de forma correcta, será diseñar un plan de gestión de la plataforma, en el que se detallan las rutinas a seguir en cada elemento para conseguir que su funcionamiento sea óptimo y eficiente. A continuación se diseña una metodología de gestión, en las que se indican los procedimientos de actuación frente a determinadas incidencias de seguridad, como pueden ser fallos en elementos de red, detección de vulnerabilidades, detección de ataques, cambios en políticas de seguridad, etc. Finalmente se detallarán las conclusiones que se obtienen de la realización del presente proyecto. ABSTRACT. This project is based on network security, specifically on security perimeter. To show this, a theoretical and practical definition of a perimeter security system will be done. This content has been broken down into two main parts. The first part is about the theoretical basis on perimeter security and the most important elements that it involves, and the second part is the implementation of a common perimeter security system in a business environment. The first part presents the most important elements of perimeter security, focusing on elements such as firewalls, IDS / IPS, antivirus, proxies, radius, bandwidth managers, etc... The operation and possible configuration of each one will be explained. The second part is larger and more practical. It includes all the design, implementation and management of a typical perimeter security system which could be applied in most businesses nowadays. The current status as far as security is concerned, and the customer needs will be found in this second part. With this information the network architecture will be designed. In the first place, it would be necessary to define formally a prerequisite. To satisfy these requirements the network map will be designed with the specific elements selected. The selection of these elements will be based on a market research to choose the best solutions for each manufacturer and are most suited to customer requirements. After running the implementation, a test plan will be designed by testing each one of the different uses of all the security elements to ensure the correct operation. In the next phase, once the proper work of all the elements has been verified, a management plan platform will be designed. It will contain the details of the routines to follow in each item to make them work optimally and efficiently. Then, a management methodology will be designed, which provides the procedures for action against certain security issues, such as network elements failures, exploit detection, attack detection, security policy changes, etc.. Finally, the conclusions obtained from the implementation of this project will be detailed.

Role Expectations and State Socialization: Germany's Rediscovery of the Use of Force 1990-1995

This dissertation engages the question of why German political elites accepted the use of force during the 1990s and started to commit the country's armed forces to multilateral peacekeeping missions. Previous governments of the Federal Republic had opposed foreign deployment of the military and Germany was characterized by a unique strategic culture in which the efficacy of military force was widely regarded as negative. The rediscovery of the use of force constituted a significant reorientation of German security policy with potentially profound implications for international relations. I use social role theory to explain Germany's security policy reorientation. I argue that political elites shared a national role conception of their country as a dependable and reliable ally. Role expectations of the international security environment changed as a result of a general shift to multilateral intervention as means to address emerging security problems after the Cold War. Germany's resistance to the use of force was viewed as inappropriate conduct for a power possessing the economic and military wherewithal of the Federal Republic. Elites from allied countries exerted social pressure to have Germany contribute commensurate with capabilities. German political elites adapted role behavior in response to external expectations in an effort to preserve the national role conception of a dependable and reliable ally. Security policy reorientation to maintain Germany's national role conception was pursued by conservative elites who acted as 'role entrepreneurs'. CDU/CSU politicians initiated a process of role adaptation to include the use of force for non-defensive missions. They persuaded Social Democrats and Alliance 90/Green party politicians that the maintenance of the country's role conception necessitated a reorientation in security policy to accommodate the changes in the security environment.

1 + 1 = 3? EU-US voting cohesion in the United Nations General Assembly. EU Diplomacy Paper 07/2012, September 2012

This paper investigates the factors that explain the voting cohesion of the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) on foreign policy issues in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). It is often argued that the EU and the US are simply too different to cooperate within international organizations and thus to vote the same way, for example, in the UNGA. However, there is still a lack of research on this point and, more importantly, previous studies have not analyzed which factors explain EU-US voting cohesion. In this paper, I try to fill this gap by studying voting cohesion from 1980 until 2011 on issues of both ‘high’ politics (security) and ‘low’ politics (human rights) not only as regards EU-US voting cohesion, but also concerning voting cohesion among EU member states. I test six hypotheses derived from International Relations theories, and I argue that EU-US voting cohesion is best explained by the topic of the issue voted upon, whether an issue is marked as ‘important’ by the US government, and by the type of resolution. On the EU level, the length of Union membership and transaction costs matter most.

L’usage des mesures restrictives autonomes de l’Union européenne: deux poids deux mesures ou des mesures de poids? = The use of autonomous restrictive measures in the European Union: double standards or weight measures? EU Diplomacy Paper 09/2012, October 2012

No abstract.

Why EU promotion is at odds with successful crisis management: public relations, news coverage, and the Aceh Monitoring Mission. EU Centre in Singapore Working Paper No. 10, September 2012

The EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and its accompanying Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) missions can be tools used to increase the international profile of the European Union. Nevertheless, CSDP missions garner little news coverage. This article argues that the very nature of the missions themselves makes them poor vehicles for EU promotion for political, institutional, and logistical reasons. By definition, they are conducted in the middle of crises, making news coverage politically sensitive. The very act of reporting could undermine the mission. Institutionally, all CSDP missions are intergovernmental, making press statements slow, overly bureaucratic, and of little interest to journalists. Logistically, the missions are often located in remote, undeveloped parts of the world, making it difficult and expensive for European and international journalists to cover. Moreover, these regions in crisis seldom have a thriving, local free press. Using the Aceh Monitoring Mission (AMM) as a case study, the author concludes that although a mission may do good, CSDP missions cannot fulfil the political function of raising the profile of the EU.

Continental regionalism: Brazil's prominent role in the Americas. CEPS Working Document No. 374, February 2013

Brazil has a dual identity as a Latin American country and one of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The regional and global dimensions of Brasilia’s foreign policy have been closely intertwined. Inspired by the idea of development and autonomy in the last ten years, Brazil has assumed a stronger regional leadership role. The result has been the emergence of a South American space, with Mercosur and Unasur as the main integration schemes. For Brazil, regionalism is not only a goal in itself but also an instrument for exerting global influence and for ‘soft-balancing’ the United States. Washington’s lower profile in the region has facilitated Brazil’s rise as a regional and even continental player, with a strong influence on the Latin American puzzle composed of many different pieces or concentric circles.

Does the key to a WMD-free Middle East lie in a nuclear Iran? CEPS Commentary, 10 June 2013

After the presidential elections on June 14th, the Iranian regime will continue its catch-me-if-you-can game with the international community until it has reached the nuclear threshold. Paradoxically, the key to a solution on the nuclear issue might just lie in discussions on a WMD-free Middle East, but only after Iran has obtained nuclear military capability. At that point, and in the context of a new arms race, both regional and international players may be persuaded that the Middle East has more to gain from negotiations on non-proliferation than from prolonged isolation and the prospect of intractable war.

Now We Are One...A Rough Start for the EEAS

The first year of the European External Action Service (EEAS) has already elicited much comment, both internally and externally. This contribution briefly reviews the nature of this commentary and then suggests some possible short-term ‘wins’ for the Service, as well as some challenges that will require a longer-term perspective. The main shorter-term issue considers the need to create stronger linkages and priorities between existing strategies and to start the difficult process of melding a common mindset within the Service. The longer-term challenges revolve around recruitment, balance and resources. The latter is particularly important in order to enable the delegations to assume their full roles. The barrage of criticism that greeted the EEAS’s first birthday is also a commentary on how critical the role of the Service is to achieving the core goals of the Lisbon Treaty in external relations; namely, to aim towards more coherence, effectiveness and visibility.

Programming EU External Action Post-Lisbon: New Opportunities or Business as Usual?

Over 90% of the external relations budget of the EU is processed through its external financial instruments. With the Lisbon Treaty and the creation of the new European External Action Service (EEAS), the institutional architecture of these instruments was significantly reformed. This contribution analyses strategic programming both pre- and post-Lisbon, identifies ‘winners’ and ‘losers’, and examines the potential of the new provisions to increase the coherence of EU external action. The examination shows that the instruments can be categorised into three groupings: ‘the big three’ comprising the bulk of funding characterised by joint programming and responsibilities; the ‘Commission-only’ instruments where all powers remain with the Commission; and the ‘EEAS-led rest’ in which the High Representative and the EEAS play a strong role but only have limited financial resources available. The new system calls for strong coordination of all involved actors in order to make it work. Findings of a case study on the Instrument for Stability reveal, however, that so far the establishment of the EEAS has not made a substantial impact on strategic programming in its first two years.