The effect of social security, health, demography and technology on retirement

This article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of the elderly and investigates the factors that may account for the increase in retirement in the second half of the last century. We develop a life-cycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy - which became much more generous - and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement.

The impact on the stationary state income of a pay-as-you-go system of social security

A model of overlapping generations in continuous time is composed. IndividuaIs pass through two distinct time periods during their life times. During the first period, they work, save and have a death probability equal to zero. During the second, from the periods T after birth, their probability of death changes to p and then they retire. Capital stock and the stationary state in come are calculated for two situations: in the first, people live from their accumulated capital after retirementj in the second, they live from a state transfer payment through income taxo To simplify matters, in this preliminary version, it is supposed that there is no population growth and that the instantaneous elasticity substitution of consumption is unitary.

The impact of social security reform on occupational and retirement behavior : a quantitative assessment for Brazil

Population ageing is a problem that countries will have to cope with within a few years. How would changes in the social security system affect individual behaviour? We develop a multi-sectoral life-cycle model with both retirement and occupational choices to evaluate what are the macroeconomic impacts of social security reforms. We calibrate the model to match 2011 Brazilian economy and perform a counterfactual exercise of the long-run impacts of a recently adopted reform. In 2013, the Brazilian government approximated the two segregated social security schemes, imposing a ceiling on public pensions. In the benchmark equilibrium, our modelling economy is able to reproduce the early retirement claiming, the agents' stationary distribution among sectors, as well as the social security deficit and the public job application decision. In the counterfactual exercise, we find a significant reduction of 55\% in the social security deficit, an increase of 1.94\% in capital-to-output ratio, with both output and capital growing, a delay in retirement claims of public workers and a modification in the structure of agents applying to the public sector job.

Transmission network expansion planning with security constraints

A mathematical model and a methodology to solve the transmission network expansion planning problem with security constraints are presented. The methodology allows one to find an optimal and reliable transmission network expansion plan using a DC model to represent the electrical network. The security (n-1) criterion is used. The model presented is solved using a genetic algorithm designed to solve the reliable expansion planning in an efficient way. The results obtained for several known systems from literature show the excellent performance of the proposed methodology. A comparative analysis of the results obtained with the proposed methodology is also presented.

Transmission network expansion planning in full open market considering security constraints

This paper presents a mathematical model and a methodology to solve the transmission network expansion planning problem with security constraints in full competitive market, assuming that all generation programming plans present in the system operation are known. The methodology let us find an optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in each one of the generation programming plans specified in the full competitive market case, including a single contingency situation with generation rescheduling using the security (n-1) criterion. In this context, the centralized expansion planning with security constraints and the expansion planning in full competitive market are subsets of the proposal presented in this paper. The model provides a solution using a genetic algorithm designed to efficiently solve the reliable expansion planning in full competitive market. The results obtained for several known systems from the literature show the excellent performance of the proposed methodology.

Inclusion of the European Nordic model in the debate concerning social protection reform: the long-term development of Nordic welfare systems (1890-2005) and their transferability to Latin America in the twenty-first century

Includes bibliography

Statistical model applied to NetFlow for network intrusion detection

The computers and network services became presence guaranteed in several places. These characteristics resulted in the growth of illicit events and therefore the computers and networks security has become an essential point in any computing environment. Many methodologies were created to identify these events; however, with increasing of users and services on the Internet, many difficulties are found in trying to monitor a large network environment. This paper proposes a methodology for events detection in large-scale networks. The proposal approaches the anomaly detection using the NetFlow protocol, statistical methods and monitoring the environment in a best time for the application. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Flexible labour markets, workers' protection and the security of the wings": a Danish flexicurity solution to the unemployment and social problems in globalized economies"

Includes bibliography

Market-driven security-constrained transmission network expansion planning

This paper presents a Bi-level Programming (BP) approach to solve the Transmission Network Expansion Planning (TNEP) problem. The proposed model is envisaged under a market environment and considers security constraints. The upper-level of the BP problem corresponds to the transmission planner which procures the minimization of the total investment and load shedding cost. This upper-level problem is constrained by a single lower-level optimization problem which models a market clearing mechanism that includes security constraints. Results on the Garver's 6-bus and IEEE 24-bus RTS test systems are presented and discussed. Finally, some conclusions are drawn. © 2011 IEEE.

A Multi-Stage Stochastic Non-Linear Model for Reactive Power Planning Under Contingencies

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Multitemporal analysis of satellite imagery: implementation of a land evolution model in ALCS (ATSR LAND CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM)

In this report it was designed an innovative satellite-based monitoring approach applied on the Iraqi Marshlands to survey the extent and distribution of marshland re-flooding and assess the development of wetland vegetation cover. The study, conducted in collaboration with MEEO Srl , makes use of images collected from the sensor (A)ATSR onboard ESA ENVISAT Satellite to collect data at multi-temporal scales and an analysis was adopted to observe the evolution of marshland re-flooding. The methodology uses a multi-temporal pixel-based approach based on classification maps produced by the classification tool SOIL MAPPER ®. The catalogue of the classification maps is available as web service through the Service Support Environment Portal (SSE, supported by ESA). The inundation of the Iraqi marshlands, which has been continuous since April 2003, is characterized by a high degree of variability, ad-hoc interventions and uncertainty. Given the security constraints and vastness of the Iraqi marshlands, as well as cost-effectiveness considerations, satellite remote sensing was the only viable tool to observe the changes taking place on a continuous basis. The proposed system (ALCS – AATSR LAND CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM) avoids the direct use of the (A)ATSR images and foresees the application of LULCC evolution models directly to „stock‟ of classified maps. This approach is made possible by the availability of a 13 year classified image database, conceived and implemented in the CARD project (http://earth.esa.int/rtd/Projects/#CARD).The approach here presented evolves toward an innovative, efficient and fast method to exploit the potentiality of multi-temporal LULCC analysis of (A)ATSR images. The two main objectives of this work are both linked to a sort of assessment: the first is to assessing the ability of modeling with the web-application ALCS using image-based AATSR classified with SOIL MAPPER ® and the second is to evaluate the magnitude, the character and the extension of wetland rehabilitation.

'Security Here is Not Safe': Violence, Punishment, & Space in the Contemporary U.S. Penitentiary

The US penitentiary at Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, was retrofitted in 2008 to offer the country’s first federal Special Management Unit (SMU) program of its kind. This model SMU is designed for federal inmates from around the country identified as the most intractably troublesome, and features double-celling of inmates in tiny spaces, in 23-hour or 24-hour a day lockdown, requiring them to pass through a two-year program of readjustment. These spatial tactics, and the philosophy of punishment underlying them, contrast with the modern reform ideals upon which the prison was designed and built in 1932. The SMU represents the latest punitive phase in American penology, one that neither simply eliminates men as in the premodern spectacle, nor creates the docile, rehabilitated bodies of the modern panopticon; rather, it is a late-modern structure that produces only fear, terror, violence, and death. This SMU represents the latest of the late-modern prisons, similar to other supermax facilities in the US but offering its own unique system of punishment as well. While the prison exists within the system of American law and jurisprudence, it also manifests features of Agamben’s lawless, camp-like space that emerges during a state of exception, exempt from outside scrutiny with inmate treatment typically beyond the scope of the law.

"Security Here is Not Safe": Violence, Punishment, and Space in the Contemporary US Penitentiary

The US penitentiary at Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, was retrofitted in 2008 to offer the country's first federal Special Management Unit (SMU) program of its kind. This model SMU is designed for federal inmates from around the country identified as the most intractably troublesome, and features double-celling of inmates in tiny spaces, in 23-hour or 24-hour a day lockdown, requiring them to pass through a two-year program of readjustment. These spatial tactics, and the philosophy of punishment underlying them, contrast with the modern reform ideals upon which the prison was designed and built in 1932. The SMU represents the latest punitive phase in American penology, one that neither simply eliminates men as in the premodern spectacle, nor creates the docile, rehabilitated bodies of the modern panopticon; rather, it is a late-modern structure that produces only fear, terror, violence, and death. This SMU represents the latest of the late-modern prisons, similar to other supermax facilities in the US but offering its own unique system of punishment as well. While the prison exists within the system of American law and jurisprudence, it also manifests features of Agamben's lawless, camp-like space that emerges during a state of exception, exempt from outside scrutiny with inmate treatment typically beyond the scope of the law

Challenges of the Cooperative Movement In Addressing Issues of Human Security In the Context of a Neoliberal World: the Case of Argentina

The response of some Argentine workers to the 2001 crisis of neoliberalism gave rise to a movement of worker-recovered enterprises (empresas recuperadas por sus trabajadores or ERTs). The ERTs have emerged as former employees took over the control of generally fraudulently bankrupt factories and enterprises. The analysis of the ERT movement within the neoliberal global capitalist order will draw from William Robinson’s (2004) neo-Gramscian concept of hegemony. The theoretical framework of neo-Gramscian hegemony will be used in exposing the contradictions of capitalism on the global, national, organizational and individual scales and the effects they have on the ERT movement. The ERT movement has demonstrated strong level of resilience, despite the numerous economic, social, political and cultural challenges and limitations it faces as a consequence of the implementation of neoliberalism globally. ERTs have shown that through non-violent protests, democratic principles of management and social inclusion, it is possible to start constructing an alternative social order that is based on the cooperative principles of “honesty, openness, social responsibility and caring for others” (ICA 2007) as opposed to secrecy, exclusiveness, individualism and self-interestedness. In order to meet this “utopian” vision, it is essential to push the limits of the possible within the current social order and broaden the alliance to include the organized members of the working class, such as the members of trade unions, and the unorganized, such as the unemployed and underemployed. Though marginal in number and size, the members of ERTs have given rise to a model that is worth exploring in other countries and regions burdened by the contradictory workings of capitalism. Today, ERTs serve as living proofs that workers too are capable of successfully running businesses, not capitalists alone.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR BIOFUEL FACILITY SIZE AND LOCATION AND A SIMULATION MODEL FOR DESIGN OF A BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAIN

A range of societal issues have been caused by fossil fuel consumption in the transportation sector in the United States (U.S.), including health related air pollution, climate change, the dependence on imported oil, and other oil related national security concerns. Biofuels production from various lignocellulosic biomass types such as wood, forest residues, and agriculture residues have the potential to replace a substantial portion of the total fossil fuel consumption. This research focuses on locating biofuel facilities and designing the biofuel supply chain to minimize the overall cost. For this purpose an integrated methodology was proposed by combining the GIS technology with simulation and optimization modeling methods. The GIS based methodology was used as a precursor for selecting biofuel facility locations by employing a series of decision factors. The resulted candidate sites for biofuel production served as inputs for simulation and optimization modeling. As a precursor to simulation or optimization modeling, the GIS-based methodology was used to preselect potential biofuel facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass. Candidate locations were selected based on a set of evaluation criteria, including: county boundaries, a railroad transportation network, a state/federal road transportation network, water body (rivers, lakes, etc.) dispersion, city and village dispersion, a population census, biomass production, and no co-location with co-fired power plants. The simulation and optimization models were built around key supply activities including biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation and storage. The built onsite storage served for spring breakup period where road restrictions were in place and truck transportation on certain roads was limited. Both models were evaluated using multiple performance indicators, including cost (consisting of the delivered feedstock cost, and inventory holding cost), energy consumption, and GHG emissions. The impact of energy consumption and GHG emissions were expressed in monetary terms to keep consistent with cost. Compared with the optimization model, the simulation model represents a more dynamic look at a 20-year operation by considering the impacts associated with building inventory at the biorefinery to address the limited availability of biomass feedstock during the spring breakup period. The number of trucks required per day was estimated and the inventory level all year around was tracked. Through the exchange of information across different procedures (harvesting, transportation, and biomass feedstock processing procedures), a smooth flow of biomass from harvesting areas to a biofuel facility was implemented. The optimization model was developed to address issues related to locating multiple biofuel facilities simultaneously. The size of the potential biofuel facility is set up with an upper bound of 50 MGY and a lower bound of 30 MGY. The optimization model is a static, Mathematical Programming Language (MPL)-based application which allows for sensitivity analysis by changing inputs to evaluate different scenarios. It was found that annual biofuel demand and biomass availability impacts the optimal results of biofuel facility locations and sizes.