Efficient simulation of a Tandem Jackson Network

The two-node tandem Jackson network serves as a convenient reference model for the analysis and testing of different methodologies and techniques in rare event simulation. In this paper we consider a new approach to efficiently estimate the probability that the content of the second buffer exceeds some high level L before it becomes empty, starting from a given state. The approach is based on a Markov additive process representation of the buffer processes, leading to an exponential change of measure to be used in an importance sampling procedure. Unlike changes of measures proposed and studied in recent literature, the one derived here is a function of the content of the first buffer. We prove that when the first buffer is finite, this method yields asymptotically efficient simulation for any set of arrival and service rates. In fact, the relative error is bounded independent of the level L; a new result which is not established for any other known method. When the first buffer is infinite, we propose a natural extension of the exponential change of measure for the finite buffer case. In this case, the relative error is shown to be bounded (independent of L) only when the second server is the bottleneck; a result which is known to hold for some other methods derived through large deviations analysis. When the first server is the bottleneck, experimental results using our method seem to suggest that the relative error is bounded linearly in L.

Low-density koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in the mulgalands of south-west Queensland. I. Faecal pellet sampling protocol

Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in eastern Australia are threatened by land clearing for agricultural and urban development. At the same time, conservation efforts are hindered by a dearth of information about inland populations. Faecal deposits offer a source of information that is readily available and easily collected non-invasively. We detail a faecal pellet sampling protocol that was developed for use in a large rangeland biogeographic region. The method samples trees in belt transects, uses a thorough search at the tree base to quickly identify trees with koala pellets under them, then estimates the abundance of faecal pellets under those trees using 1-m(2) quadrats. There was a strong linear relationship between these estimates and a complete enumeration of pellet abundance under the same trees. We evaluated the accuracy of our method in detecting trees where pellets were present by means of a misclassification index that was weighed more heavily for missed trees that had high numbers of pellets under them. This showed acceptable accuracy in all landforms except riverine, where some trees with large numbers of pellets were missed. Here, accuracy in detecting pellet presence was improved by sampling with quadrats, rather than basal searches. Finally, we developed a method to reliably age pellets and demonstrate how this protocol could be used with the faecal-standing-crop method to derive a regional estimate of absolute koala abundance.

Two-dimensional balanced sampling plans excluding contiguous units

A balanced sampling plan excluding contiguous units (or BSEC for short) was first introduced by Hedayat, Rao and Stufken in 1988. These designs can be used for survey sampling when the units are arranged in one-dimensional ordering and the contiguous units in this ordering provide similar information. In this paper, we generalize the concept of a BSEC to the two-dimensional situation and give constructions of two-dimensional BSECs with block size 3. The existence problem is completely solved in the case where lambda = 1.

Techniques for detailed heat transfer measurements in cold supersonic blowdown tunnels using thermochromic liquid crystals

The paper presents methods for measurement of convective heat transfer distributions in a cold flow, supersonic blowdown wind tunnel. The techniques involve use of the difference between model surface temperature and adiabatic wall temperature as the driving temperature difference for heat transfer and no active heating or cooling of the test gas or model is required. Thermochromic liquid crystals are used for surface temperature indication and results presented from experiments in a Mach 3 flow indicate that measurements of the surface heat transfer distribution under swept shock wave boundary layer interactions can be made. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Refinements in stress echocardiographic techniques improve inter-institutional agreement in interpretation of dobutamine stress echocardiograms

Aims To determine the degree of inter-institutional agreement in the assessment of dobutamine stress echocardiograms using modern stress echo cardiographic technology in combination with standardized data acquisition and assessment criteria. Method and Results Among six experienced institutions, 150 dobutamine stress echocardiograms (dobutamine up to 40 mug.kg(-1) min(-1) and atropine up to I mg) were performed on patients with suspected coronary artery disease using fundamental and harmonic imaging following a consistent digital acquisition protocol. Each dobutamine stress echocardiogram was assessed at every institution regarding endocardial visibility and left ventricular wall motion without knowledge of any other data using standardized reading criteria. No patients were excluded due to poor image quality or inadequate stress level. Coronary angiography was performed within 4 weeks. Coronary angiography demonstrated significant coronary artery disease (less than or equal to50% diameter stenosis) in 87 patients. Using harmonic imaging an average of 5.2+/-0.9 institutions agreed on dobutamine stress echocardiogram results as being normal or abnormal (mean kappa 0.55; 95% CI 0.50-0.60). Agreement was higher in patients with no (equal assessment of dobutamine stress echocardiogram results by 5.5 +/- 0.8 institutions) or three-vessel coronary artery disease (5.4 +/- 0.8 institutions) and lower in one- or two- vessel disease (5.0 +/- 0.9 and 5.2 +/- 1.0 institutions, respectively-, P=0.041). Disagreement on test results was greater in only minor wall motion abnormalities. Agreement on dobutamine stress echocardiogram results was lower using fundamental imaging (mean kappa 0.49; 95% CI 0.44-0.54; P

Application of spatial analysis techniques to adjust for fertility trends and identify interplot competition in early stage sugarcane selection trials

Most sugarcane breeding programs in Australia use large unreplicated trials to evaluate clones in the early stages of selection. Commercial varieties that are replicated provide a method of local control of soil fertility. Although such methods may be useful in detecting broad trends in the field, variation often occurs on a much smaller scale. Methods such as spatial analysis adjust a plot for variability by using information from immediate neighbours. These techniques are routinely used to analyse cereal data in Australia and have resulted in increased accuracy and precision in the estimates of variety effects. In this paper, spatial analyses in which the variability is decomposed into local, natural, and extraneous components are applied to early selection trials in sugarcane. Interplot competition in cane yield and trend in sugar content were substantial in many of the trials and there were often large differences in the selections between the spatial and current method used by the Bureau of Sugar Experiment Stations. A joint modelling approach for tonnes sugar per hectare in response to fertility trends and interplot competition is recommended.

Exercise-induced alterations in neutrophil degranulation and respiratory burst activity: possible mechanisms of action

Neutrophils constitute 50-60% of all circulating leukocytes; they present the first line of microbicidal defense and are involved in inflammatory responses. To examine immunocompetence in athletes, numerous studies have investigated the effects of exercise on the number of circulating neutrophils and their response to stimulation by chemotactic stimuli and activating factors. Exercise causes a biphasic increase in the number of neutrophils in the blood, arising from increases in catecholamine and cortisol concentrations. Moderate intensity exercise may enhance neutrophil respiratory burst activity, possibly through increases in the concentrations of growth hormone and the inflammatory cytokine IL-6. In contrast, intense or long duration exercise may suppress neutrophil degranulation and the production of reactive oxidants via elevated circulating concentrations of epinephrine (adrenaline) and cortisol. There is evidence of neutrophil degranulation and activation of the respiratory burst following exercise-induced muscle damage. In principle, improved responsiveness of neutrophils to stimulation following exercise of moderate intensity could mean that individuals participating in moderate exercise may have improved resistance to infection. Conversely, competitive athletes undertaking regular intense exercise may be at greater risk of contracting illness. However there are limited data to support this concept. To elucidate the cellular mechanisms involved in the neutrophil responses to exercise, researchers have examined changes in the expression of cell membrane receptors, the production and release of reactive oxidants and more recently, calcium signaling. The investigation of possible modifications of other signal transduction events following exercise has not been possible because of current methodological limitations. At present, variation in exercise-induced alterations in neutrophil function appears to be due to differences in exercise protocols, training status, sampling points and laboratory assay techniques.

The microbiological quality of beef tripe using different processing techniques

The microbiological quality of routinely processed tripe and rumen pillars were compared with those derived after emptying the rumen (paunch) without using water (dry dumping) and after deliberately bursting the paunches before processing. Prior to packing the mean:log(10) aerobic plate counts (APC) for the routinely processed tripe and rumen pillars were 3.55+/-1.08 and 3.28+/-0.87/g respectively. The corresponding mean log(10) total coliform counts (TCC) were 1.27+/-1.28 and 2.08+/-0.87. The mean log(10) APC counts on tripe and rumen pillars after dry-dumping were 3.06+/-0.60 and 3.90+/-0.75/g, respectively. The corresponding mean log(10) TCC were 1.03+/-0.60/g and 2.75+/-1.14/g respectively. After deliberately bursting the paunches, before processing, the mean log(10) APC counts on tripe and rumen pillars were 3.55+/-0.83/g and 3.50+/-0.59/g and the mean log(10) TCC were 1.54+/-0.95/g and 2.66+/-0.82/g respectively. In all cases the prevalence of Salmonella and Campylobacter spp. was less than 3%. The results indicate that both tripe and rumen pillars can be produced after dry dumping without compromising the quality of tripe and rumen pillars. Similarly, incidentally burst paunches that become contaminated with ingesta on the serosal surface can be processed without compromising product quality. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

Evaluation of line-transect sampling for estimating koala abundance in the Pine Rivers Shire, south-east Queensland

Distance sampling using line transects has not been previously used or tested for estimating koala abundance. In July 2001, a pilot survey was conducted to compare the use of line transects with strip transects for estimating koala abundance. Both methods provided a similar estimate of density. On the basis of the results of the pilot survey, the distribution and abundance of koalas in the Pine Rivers Shire, south-east Queensland, was determined using line-transect sampling. In total, 134 lines (length 64 km) were used to sample bushland areas. Eighty-two independent koalas were sighted. Analysis of the frequency distribution of sighting distances using the software program DISTANCE enabled a global detection function to be estimated for survey sites in bushland areas across the Shire. Abundance in urban parts of the Shire was estimated from densities obtained from total counts at eight urban sites that ranged from 26 to 51 ha in size. Koala abundance in the Pine Rivers Shire was estimated at 4584 (95% confidence interval, 4040-5247). Line-transect sampling is a useful method for estimating koala abundance provided experienced koala observers are used when conducting surveys.

Hemodynamic and ventilatory effects of manual respiratory physiotherapy techniques of chest clapping, vibration, and shaking in an animal model

Chest clapping, vibration, and shaking were studied in 10 physiotherapists who applied these techniques on an anesthetized animal model. Hemodynamic variables (such as heart rate, blood pressure, pulmonary artery pressure, and right atrial pressure) were measured during the application of these techniques to verify claims of adverse events. In addition, expired tidal volume and peak expiratory flow rate were measured to ascertain effects of these techniques. Physiotherapists in this study applied chest clapping at a rate of 6.2 +/- 0.9 Hz, vibration at 10.5 +/- 2.3 Hz, and shaking at 6.2 +/- 2.3 Hz. With the use of these rates, esophageal pressure swings of 8.8 +/- 5.0, 0.7 +/- 0.3, and 1.4 +/- 0.7 mmHg resulted from clapping, vibration, and shaking respectively. Variability in rates and forces generated by these techniques was 80% of variance in shaking force (P = 0.003). Application of these techniques by physiotherapists was found to have no significant effects on hemodynamic and most ventilatory variables in this study. From this study, we conclude that chest clapping, vibration, and shaking 1) can be consistently performed by physiotherapists; 2) are significantly related to physiotherapists' characteristics, particularly clinical experience; and 3) caused no significant hemodynamic effects.

Biochemical and molecular studies using human autopsy brain tissue

The use of human brain tissue obtained at autopsy for neurochemical, pharmacological and physiological analyses is reviewed. RNA and protein samples have been found suitable for expression profiling by techniques that include RT-PCR, cDNA microarrays, western blotting, immunohistochemistry and proteomics. The rapid development of molecular biological techniques has increased the impetus for this work to be applied to studies of brain disease. It has been shown that most nucleic acids and proteins are reasonably stable post-mortem. However, their abundance and integrity can exhibit marked intra- and intercase variability, making comparisons between case-groups difficult. Variability can reveal important functional and biochemical information. The correct interpretation of neurochemical data must take into account such factors as age, gender, ethnicity, medicative history, immediate ante-mortem status, agonal state and post-mortem and post-autopsy intervals. Here we consider issues associated with the sampling of DNA, RNA and proteins using human autopsy brain tissue in relation to various ante- and post-mortem factors. We conclude that valid and practical measures of a variety of parameters may be made in human brain tissue, provided that specific factors are controlled.