992 resultados para retrospective forecast test
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To determine which species and populations of Anopheles transmit malaria in any given situation, immunological assays for malaria sporozoite antigen can replace traditional microscopical examination of freshly dissected Anopheles. We developed a wicking assay for use with mosquitoes that identifies the presence or absence of specific peptide epitopes of circumsporozoite (CS) protein of Plasmodium falciparum and two strains of Plasmodium vivax (variants 210 and 247). The resulting assay (VecTest(TM) Malaria) is a rapid, one-step procedure using a 'dipstick' test strip capable of detecting and distinguishing between P. falciparum and P. vivax infections in mosquitoes. The objective of the present study was to test the efficacy, sensitivity, stability and field-user acceptability of this wicking dipstick assay. In collaboration with 16 test centres world-wide, we evaluated more than 40 000 units of this assay, comparing it to the standard CS ELISA. The 'VecTest(TM) Malaria' was found to show 92% sensitivity and 98.1% specificity, with 97.8% accuracy overall. In accelerated storage tests, the dipsticks remained stable for >15 weeks in dry conditions up to 45degreesC and in humid conditions up to 37degreesC. Evidently, this quick and easy dipstick test performs at an acceptable level of reliability and offers practical advantages for field workers needing to make rapid surveys of malaria vectors.
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Objectives: To study the influence of different diagnostic criteria on the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and characteristics of those diagnosed. Design and setting: Retrospective analysis of data from the general-practice-based Australian Diabetes Screening Study (January 1994 to June 1995). Participants: 5911 people with no previous diagnosis of diabetes, two or more symptoms or risk factors for diabetes, a random venous plasma glucose (PG) level > 5.5 mmol/L and a subsequent oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) result. Main outcome measure: Prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes based on each of three sets of criteria: 1997 criteria of the American Diabetes Association (ADA), 1996 two-step screening strategy of the Australian Diabetes Society (ADS) (modified according to ADA recommendations about lowered diagnostic fasting PG level), and 1999 definition of the World Health Organization (WHO). Results: Prevalence estimates for undiagnosed diabetes using the American (ADA), Australian (ADS) and WHO criteria (95% CI) were 9.4% (8.7%-10.1%), 16.0% (15.3%-16.7%) and 18.1% (17.1%-19.1%), respectively. People diagnosed with diabetes by fasting PG level (common to all sets of criteria) were more likely to be male and younger than those diagnosed only by 2 h glucose challenge PG level (Australian and WHO criteria only). The Australian (ADS) stepwise screening strategy detected 88% of those who met the WHO criteria for diabetes, including about three-quarters of those with isolated post-challenge hyperglycaemia. Conclusion: The WHO criteria (which include an OGTT result) are preferable to the American (ADA) criteria (which rely totally on fasting PG level), as the latter underestimated the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes by almost a half. The Australian (ADS) strategy identified most of those diagnosed with diabetes by WHO criteria.
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The purpose of this study was to quantify the sagittal angular displacement of the head (cranio-cervical flexion) for the five incremental stages of the cranio-cervical flexion test (CCFT). Range of cranio-cervical flexion during the CCFT was measured using a digital imaging method in 20 healthy volunteer subjects. The intra- and inter-rater reliability of the digital imaging technique for the assessment of this movement were also examined. The results of this study demonstrated a linear relationship between the incremental pressure targets of the CCFT and the percentages of full range cranio-cervical flexion range of motion (ROM) measured in the supine lying position of the test using a digital imaging technique. A mean of 22.9% full range cranio-cervical flexion was used to reach the first pressure target of the CCFT followed by linear increments up to 76.6% for the last stage of the test. An increasing amount of cranio-cervical flexion ROM was used to achieve the five successive stages of the CCFT reflecting an increasing contractile demand on the deep cervical flexor muscles. Excellent inter-rater (ICC = 0.994) and intra-rater reliability (ICC = 0.988-0.998) were demonstrated for the angular measurements using this digital imaging technique. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The Test of Mouse Proficiency (TOMP) was developed to assist occupational therapists and education professionals assess computer mouse competency skills in children from preschool to upper primary (elementary) school age. The preliminary reliability and validity of TOMP are reported in this paper. Methods used to examine the internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and criterion- and construct-related validity of the test are elaborated. In the continuing process of test refinement, these preliminary studies support to varying degrees the reliability and validity of TOMP. Recommendations for further validation of the assessment are discussed along with indications for potential clinical application.
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Retrospective assessment of maternal smoking or substance use during pregnancy is sometimes unavoidable. The unusually close relationship of twin sister pairs permits comparison of self-report data versus co-twin informant data on substance use during pregnancy. Information about smoking during pregnancy has been gathered from a series of mothers from an Australian volunteer twin panel (576 women reporting on 995 pregnancies), supplemented in many cases by independent ratings of their smoking by twin sister informants (821 pregnancies). Estimates of the proportion of women who had never smoked regularly (56-58%), who had smoked but did not smoke during a particular pregnancy (16-21%), or who smoked throughout the pregnancy (16-18%), were in good agreement whether based on self-report or twin sister informant data. However, informants underreported cases who smoked during the first trimester but then quit (1-3% versus 7-9% by self-report). Women who smoked throughout pregnancy (by informant report) rarely denied a history of regular smoking (
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This paper reports a study that explored a new construct: climate of fear. We hypothesised that climate of fear would vary across work sites within organisations, but not across organisations. This is in contrast a to measures of organisational culture, which were expected to vary both within and across organisations. To test our hypotheses, we developed a new 13-item measure of perceived fear in organisations and tested it in 20 sites across two organisations (N = 209). Culture variables measured were innovative leadership culture, and communication culture. Results were that climate of fear did vary across sites in both organisations, while differences across organisations were not significant, as we anticipated. Organisational culture, however, varied between the organisations, and within one of the organisations. The climate of fear scale exhibited acceptable psychometric properties.
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Chlorophyll fluorescence measurements have a wide range of applications from basic understanding of photosynthesis functioning to plant environmental stress responses and direct assessments of plant health. The measured signal is the fluorescence intensity (expressed in relative units) and the most meaningful data are derived from the time dependent increase in fluorescence intensity achieved upon application of continuous bright light to a previously dark adapted sample. The fluorescence response changes over time and is termed the Kautsky curve or chlorophyll fluorescence transient. Recently, Strasser and Strasser (1995) formulated a group of fluorescence parameters, called the JIP-test, that quantify the stepwise flow of energy through Photosystem II, using input data from the fluorescence transient. The purpose of this study was to establish relationships between the biochemical reactions occurring in PS II and specific JIP-test parameters. This was approached using isolated systems that facilitated the addition of modifying agents, a PS II electron transport inhibitor, an electron acceptor and an uncoupler, whose effects on PS II activity are well documented in the literature. The alteration to PS II activity caused by each of these compounds could then be monitored through the JIP-test parameters and compared and contrasted with the literature. The known alteration in PS II activity of Chenopodium album atrazine resistant and sensitive biotypes was also used to gauge the effectiveness and sensitivity of the JIP-test. The information gained from the in vitro study was successfully applied to an in situ study. This is the first in a series of four papers. It shows that the trapping parameters of the JIP-test were most affected by illumination and that the reduction in trapping had a run-on effect to inhibit electron transport. When irradiance exposure proceeded to photoinhibition, the electron transport probability parameter was greatly reduced and dissipation significantly increased. These results illustrate the advantage of monitoring a number of fluorescence parameters over the use of just one, which is often the case when the F-V/F-M ratio is used.
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The purpose of this study was to examine the development of six leader-athletes. In-depth qualitative interviews were used to explore the various activities that leader athletes engaged in from an early age as well as the roles and influences that peers, coaches, and parents played within these activities. Results indicated that leadership development in sport focused on developing four central components: high skill, strong work ethic, enriched cognitive sport knowledge, and good rapport with people. The types of activities engaged in throughout development as well as receiving feedback, acknowledgement, support, cognitive engagement, mature conversations with adults, and physical encounters with older peers are important social influences that can play an instrumental role in the formation of these four central tenets.
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Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.
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This study compares the performance of the Quickscreen and Default protocols of the ILO-96 Otodynamics Analyzer in recording transient evoked otoacoustic emissions (TEOAEs) from adults using clinical decision analysis. Data were collected from 25 males (mean age = 29.0 years, SD = 6.8) and 35 females (mean age = 28.1 years, SD = 9.6). The results showed that the mean signal-to-noise ratios obtained from the Quickscreen were significantly greater than those from the Default protocol at 1,2, and 4 kHz. The comparison of the performance of the two protocols, based on the results using receiver operating characteristics curves, revealed a higher performance of the Quickscreen than the Default protocol at 1 and 4 kHz but not at 2 kHz. In view of the enhanced performance of the Quickscreen over the Default protocol in general, the routine use of the Default protocol for testing adults in audiology clinics should be reconsidered.
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Objetivo: Descrever e analisar o estado nutricional e aspectos do estilo de vida de vegetarianos e onívoros residentes na Grande Vitória/ES, na faixa etária de 35 a 64 anos de idade. Material E Métodos: Trata-se de estudo observacional híbrido de casos prevalentes com avaliação retrospectiva da exposição. Os grupos de expostos (134) e não expostos à dieta onívora típica ocidental (67) foram determinados no início da investigação. Foram coletados dados antropométricos, bioquímicos, de atividade física e alimentação através de questionário e 3 recordatórios de 24 horas e diagnosticados sobrepeso, Razão Cintura Quadril (RCQ) inadequada e hipercolesterolemia. Colesterol total e frações, triglicerídeos, ácido úrico, sódio e potássio urinários foram comparados entre os grupos, através do teste t de Student. Foi usado o teste qui-quadrado para comparar proporções, com =0,05. Resultados: Foram encontradas diferenças significativas em relação à ocupação. Duração da atividade física e tempo assistindo televisão e/ou utilizando computador foram maiores entre os onívoros. Os vegetarianos relataram práticas alimentares mais saudáveis e menor consumo de lipídios, proteínas e sódio. Os onívoros apresentaram maior risco de sobrepeso, RCQ inadequada e hipercolesterolemia (valores de P<0,0001). HDL-colesterol não foi diferente nos grupos. Conclusão: Os vegetarianos apresentaram perfil nutricional mais adequado e menor risco para os agravos crônicos estudados, apesar de pequena diferença no padrão de atividade física regular entre os grupos estudados.
Resumo:
A população brasileira vem passando por uma transição demográfica e epidemiológica, caracterizadas por aumento na expectativa de vida, diminuições nas taxas de mortalidade, natalidade e fecundidade, aumento da escolaridade, diminuição do desemprego, aumento das enfermidades crônico-degenerativas e diminuição das enfermidades infectocontagiosas. Tais transições vêm afetando também a perinatologia, com aumento proporcional e absoluto das gestações tardias tanto no Espírito Santo quanto no Brasil. Este estudo realizou uma análise retrospectiva das gestações tardias no HUCAM, comparando as mesmas com as gestações de mulheres adolescentes e adultas jovens quanto aos seguintes desfechos perinatais: anomalia fetal, hipóxia no primeiro e quinto minuto de vida, duração da gestação, peso ao nascer e tipo de parto. As variáveis foram analisadas categoricamente, e comparadas através de análise bivariada, utilizando-se o Teste Exato de Fisher, e através de regressão logística. Na análise bivariada, foi encontrada apenas associação entre a idade materna e o tipo de parto, mas esta associação não foi confirmada na regressão logística. Analisando outros fatores relativos à gestação, restou evidenciado uma associação positiva entre um menor número de consultas pré-natais e uma maior frequência de hipóxia no recém-nascido e de prematuridade (odds ratio de 2,9 e 5,7, respectivamente). Ao final deste trabalho são elaboradas propostas para aprimoramento da coleta e do armazenamento de dados acerca da gestação no HUCAM, e para otimização da assistência pré-natal das gestantes atendidas pelo hospital, visando melhorar os desfechos perinatais encontrados.