Assessing Food Security in Selected Mediterranean Countries

Food Security has become an important issue in the international debate, particularly during the latest economic crisis. It relevant issue also for the Mediterranean Countries (MCs), particularly those of the southern shore, as they are is facing complex economic and social changes. On the one hand there is the necessity to satisfy the increasing and changing food demand of the growing population; on the other hand it is important to promote economic growth and adjust the agricultural production to food demand in a sustainable perspective. The assessment of food security conditions is a challenging task due to the multi-dimensional nature and complexity of the matter. Many papers in the scientific literature focus on the nutritional aspects of food security, while its economic issues have been addressed less frequently and only in recent times. Thus, the main objective of the research is to assess food (in)security conditions in the MCs. The study intends to identify and implement appropriate theoretical concepts and methodological tools to be used in the assessment of food security, with a particular emphasis on its economic dimension within MCs. The study follows a composite methodological approach, based on the identification and selection of a number of relevant variables, a refined set of indicators is identified by means of a two-step Principal Component Analysis applied to 90 countries and the PCA findings have been studied with particular attention to the MCs food security situation. The results of the study show that MCs have an higher economic development compared to low-income countries, however the economic and social disparities of this area show vulnerability to food (in)security, due to: dependency on food imports, lack of infrastructure and agriculture investment, climate condition and political stability and inefficiency. In conclusion, the main policy implications of food (in)security conditions in MCs are discussed.

Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

Aesthetic outcome and oncological safety of nipple-areola complex replantation after mastectomy and immediate breast reconstruction

Immediate breast reconstruction (IBR) has become an established procedure for women necessitating mastectomy. Traditionally, the nipple-areola complex (NAC) is resected during this procedure. The NAC, in turn, is a principal factor determining aesthetic outcome after breast reconstruction, and due to its particular texture and shape, a natural-looking NAC can barely be reconstructed with other tissues. The aim of this study was to assess the oncological safety as well as morbidity and aesthetic outcome after replantation of the NAC some days after IBR. Retrospective analysis of 85 patients receiving 88 mastectomies and IBR between 1998 and 2007 was conducted. NAC (n=29) or the nipple alone (n=23) were replanted 7 days (median, range 2-10 days) after IBR in 49 patients, provided the subareolar tissue was histologically negative for tumour infiltration. Local recurrence rate was assessed after 49 months (median, range 6-120 months). Aesthetic outcome was evaluated by clinical assessment during routine follow-up at least 12 months after the last intervention. Malignant involvement of the subareolar tissue was found in eight cases (9.1%). Patients qualifying for NAC replantation were in stage 0 in 29%, stage I in 15%, stage IIa in 31%, stage IIb in 17% and stage III in 8%. Total or partial necrosis occurred in 69% and 26% if the entire NAC or only the nipple were replanted, respectively (P<0.01). Depigmentation was seen in 52% and corrective surgery was done in 11 out of 52 NAC or nipple replantations. Local recurrence and isolated regional lymph node metastasis were observed in one single case each. Another 5.8% of the patients showed distant metastases. We conclude that the replantation of the NAC in IBR is oncologically safe, provided the subareolar tissue is free of tumour. However, the long-term aesthetic outcome of NAC replantation is not satisfying, which advocates replanting the nipple alone.

Climate change: an additional risk factor for agriculture and food security in the South

Climate change is expected to have far-reaching negative effects on agricultural production and food security in developing and transition countries. What do we know about these expected impacts, what are the factors that might affect production, and what are the implications for agricultural extension systems?

Integrated Geophysical Investigation of the St. James Fault Complex: A Case Study

We noninvasively detected the characteristics and location of a regional fault in an area of poor bedrock exposure complicated by karst weathering features in the subsurface. Because this regional fault is associated with sinkhole formation, its location is important for hazard avoidance. The bedrock lithologies on either side of the fault trace are similar; hence, we chose an approach that capitalized on the complementary strengths of very low frequency (VLF) electromagnetic, resistivity, and gravity methods. VLF proved most useful as a first-order reconnaissance tool, allowing us to define a narrow target area for further geophysical exploration. Fault-related epikarst was delineated using resistivity. Ultimately, a high-resolution gravity survey and subsequent inverse modeling using the results of the resistivity survey helped to further constrain the location and approximate orientation of the fault. The combined results indicated that the location of the fault trace needed to be adjusted 53 m south of the current published location and was consistent with a north-dipping thrust fault. Additionally, a gravity low south of the fault trace agreed with the location of conductive material from the resistivity and VLF surveys. We interpreted these anomalies to represent enhanced epikarst in the fault footwall. We clearly found that a staged approach involving a progression of methods beginning with a reconnaissance VLF survey, followed by high-resolution gravity and electrical resistivity surveys, can be used to characterize a fault and fault-related karst in an area of poor bedrock surface exposure.

Regional myocardial wall thinning at multidetector computed tomography correlates to arrhythmogenic substrate in postinfarction ventricular tachycardia: assessment of structural and electrical substrate

BACKGROUND A majority of patients undergoing ablation of ventricular tachycardia have implanted devices precluding substrate imaging with delayed-enhancement MRI. Contrast-enhanced multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) can depict myocardial wall thickness with submillimetric resolution. We evaluated the relationship between regional myocardial wall thinning (WT) imaged by MDCT and arrhythmogenic substrate in postinfarction ventricular tachycardia. METHODS AND RESULTS We studied 13 consecutive postinfarction patients undergoing MDCT before ablation. MDCT data were integrated with high-density 3-dimensional electroanatomic maps acquired during sinus rhythm (endocardium, 509±291 points/map; epicardium, 716±323 points/map). Low-voltage areas (<1.5 mV) and local abnormal ventricular activities (LAVA) during sinus rhythm were assessed with regard to the WT. A significant correlation was found between the areas of WT <5 mm and endocardial low voltage (correlation-R=0.82; P=0.001), but no such correlation was found in the epicardium. The WT <5 mm area was smaller than the endocardial low-voltage area (54 cm(2) [Q1-Q3, 46-92] versus 71 cm(2) [Q1-Q3, 59-124]; P=0.001). Among a total of 13 060 electrograms reviewed in the whole study population, 538 LAVA were detected and analyzed. LAVA were located within the WT <5 mm (469/538 [87%]) or at its border (100% within 23 mm). Very late LAVA (>100 ms after QRS complex) were almost exclusively detected within the thinnest area (93% in the WT<3 mm). CONCLUSIONS Regional myocardial WT correlates to low-voltage regions and distribution of LAVA critical for the generation and maintenance of postinfarction ventricular tachycardia. The integration of MDCT WT with 3-dimensional electroanatomic maps can help focus mapping and ablation on the culprit regions, even when MRI is precluded by the presence of implanted devices.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.

{\it Hox\/} genes and specification of regional identity in the axial skeleton: Analysis of the individual and combined mutant phenotypes of the paralogous group 4 murine {\it Hox\/} genes; {\it hoxa\/}-4, {\it hoxb\/}-4 and {\it hoxd\/}-4

The Hox gene products are transcription factors involved in specifying regional identity along the anteroposterior body axis. In Drosophila, where these genes are known as HOM-C (Homeotic-complex) genes and where they have been most extensively studied, they are expressed in restricted domains along the anteroposterior axis with different anterior limits. Genetic analysis of a large number of gain- and loss-of-function alleles of these genes has revealed that these genes are important in specifying segmental identity at their anterior limits of expression. Furthermore, there is a functional dominance of posterior genes over anterior genes, such that posterior genes can dominantly specify their developmental programs in spite of the expression of more anterior genes in the same segment. In the mouse, there are four clusters of HOM-C genes, called Hox genes. Thus, there may be up to four genes, called paralogs, that are more highly homologous to each other and to their Drosophila homolog than they are to the other mouse Hox genes. The single mutants for two paralogous genes, hoxa-4 and hoxd-4, presented in this dissertation, are similar to several other mouse Hox mutants in that they show partial, incompletely penetrant homeotic transformations of vertebrae at their anterior limit of expression. These mutants were then bred with hoxb-4 mutants (Ramirez-Solis, et al. 1993) to generate the three possible double mutant combinations as well as the triple mutant. The skeletal phenotypes of these group 4 Hox compound mutants displayed clear alterations in regional identity, such that a nearly complete transformation towards the morphology of the first cervical vertebra occurs. These results suggest a certain degree of functional redundancy among paralogous genes in specifying regional identity. Furthermore, there was a remarkable dose-dependent increase in the number of vertebrae transformed to a first cervical vertebra identity, including the second through the fifth cervical vertebrae in the triple mutant. Thus, these genes are required in a larger anteroposterior domain than is revealed by the single mutant phenotypes alone, such that multiple mutations in these genes result in transformations of vertebrae that are not at their anterior limit of expression. ^

Three “Bali Deliverables” for more Food Security

As the clock is ticking for a positive outcome at the Ninth WTO Ministerial Conference to be held in Bali in December 2013, agricultural negotiators are scrambling to find solutions to issues such as tariff-rate quota (TRQ) administration and export competition in order to improve trade flows. The main issue seems to be whether WTO rules applying to public stockpiles in developing countries need to be changed or temporarily suspended as a means to enhance national food security. This paper is based on a note submitted to the ICTSD-IPC Expert Group “Meeting on Agriculture and Food Security – Policy Options for MC9 and beyond” (Geneva, June 2013). It lists the policy instruments impacting on global, national and (urban and rural) household food security – “The Food Security Tool Box” – and asks which immediate decisions the WTO Ministers might take in this field despite the political difficulties such as continued agro-dumping practices or the “land grab” issue. Three such “deliverables” are outlined: (i) regional and “virtual” food security schemes could be allowed to provide reserves to other countries without violating the obligation to “form an integral part of a food security programme identified in national legislation” (Agreement on Agriculture, Annex II, para 3); (ii) TRQ under-fills could be improved by mandatory enquiries into low fill rate situations; and (iii) World Food Program (WFP) and other non-commercial food purchases could be exempted from export restrictions and prohibitions. High ambitions for Bali seem to be misplaced. A more realistic yet real progress could restore the dwindling credibility of the WTO as a forum for trade negotiations.

Avoidable hospitalizations in Switzerland: a small area analysis on regional variation, density of physicians, hospital supply and rurality.

BACKGROUND Avoidable hospitalizations (AH) are hospital admissions for diseases and conditions that could have been prevented by appropriate ambulatory care. We examine regional variation of AH in Switzerland and the factors that determine AH. METHODS We used hospital service areas, and data from 2008-2010 hospital discharges in Switzerland to examine regional variation in AH. Age and sex standardized AH were the outcome variable, and year of admission, primary care physician density, medical specialist density, rurality, hospital bed density and type of hospital reimbursement system were explanatory variables in our multilevel poisson regression. RESULTS Regional differences in AH were as high as 12-fold. Poisson regression showed significant increase of all AH over time. There was a significantly lower rate of all AH in areas with more primary care physicians. Rates increased in areas with more specialists. Rates of all AH also increased where the proportion of residences in rural communities increased. Regional hospital capacity and type of hospital reimbursement did not have significant associations. Inconsistent patterns of significant determinants were found for disease specific analyses. CONCLUSION The identification of regions with high and low AH rates is a starting point for future studies on unwarranted medical procedures, and may help to reduce their incidence. AH have complex multifactorial origins and this study demonstrates that rurality and physician density are relevant determinants. The results are helpful to improve the performance of the outpatient sector with emphasis on local context. Rural and urban differences in health care delivery remain a cause of concern in Switzerland.

Screening for complex healing processes and psychological intervention in injured individuals

Introduction Injured individuals face a high risk for the development of psychological symptoms such as depression or anxiety, which influences early return to work after an accident. So far, it is unclear to which extent early psychological interventions can improve the ability to return to work. Purpose of the study The aim of the study was to investigate whether an improvement of the treatment-triage (by the screening questionnaire work and health [FAB]) influences early return to work and well being in injured individuals. Methods The study sample consists of injured individuals with different mental health-related or work-related disabilities after an accident. Participants are included eight weeks after an accident. Participants are randomly assigned to the intervention or to the control group. The intervention is an individualized psychotherapy consisting of cognitive-behavioral therapy and work related topics in an individual setting. Well being and work related actors are assessed at baseline and after six months. Results The recruitment is still ongoing. The preliminary results of this randomized controlled study will be presented at the conference. Conclusion An individualized psychotherapy might have the potential to improve the rehabilitation process in injured individuals and improve the ability to return to work.

Enhancing Food Sovereignty and Food Security through the Revitalization of Indigenous Knowledge: Experiences from the Bolivian Andes

Endogenous development is defined as development that values primarily locally available resources and the way people organized themselves for that purpose. It is a dynamic and evolving concept that also embraces innovations and complementation from other than endogenous sources of knowledge; however, only as far as they are based on mutual respect and the recognition of cultural and socioeconomic self-determination of each of the parties involved. Experiences that have been systematized in the context of the BioAndes Program are demonstrating that enhancing food security and food sovereignty on the basis of endogenous development can be best achieved by applying a ‘biocultural’ perspective: This means to promote and support actions that are simultaneously valuing biological (fauna, flora, soils, or agrobiodiversity) and sociocultural resources (forms of social organization, local knowledge and skills, norms, and the related worldviews). In Bolivia, that is one of the Latin-American countries with the highest levels of poverty (79% of the rural population) and undernourishment (22% of the total population), the Program BioAndes promotes food sovereignty and food security by revitalizing the knowledge of Andean indigenous people and strengthening their livelihood strategies. This starts by recognizing that Andean people have developed complex strategies to constantly adapt to highly diverse and changing socioenvironmental conditions. These strategies are characterized by organizing the communities, land use and livelihoods along a vertical gradient of the available eco-climatic zones; the resulting agricultural systems are evolving around the own sociocultural values of reciprocity and mutual cooperation, giving thus access to an extensive variety of food, fiber and energy sources. As the influences of markets, competition or individualization are increasingly affecting the life in the communities, people became aware of the need to find a new balance between endogenous and exogenous forms of knowledge. In this context, BioAndes starts by recognizing the wealth and potentials of local practices and aims to integrate its actions into the ongoing endogenous processes of innovation and adaptation. In order to avoid external impositions and biases, the program intervenes on the basis of a dialogue between exogenous, mainly scientific, and indigenous forms of knowledge. The paper presents an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of enhancing endogenous development through a dialogue between scientific and indigenous knowledge by specifically focusing on its effects on food sovereignty and food security in three ‘biocultural’ rural areas of the Bolivian highlands. The paper shows how the dialogue between different forms of knowledge evolved alongside the following project activities: 1) recuperation and renovation of local seeds and crop varieties (potato – Solanum spp., quinoa – Chenopodium quinoa, cañahua – Chenopodium pallidicaule); 2) support for the elaboration of community-based norms and regulations for governing access and distribution of non-timber forest products, such as medicinal, fodder, and construction plants; 3) revitalization of ethnoveterinary knowledge for sheep and llama breeding; 4) improvement of local knowledge about the transformation of food products (sheep-cheese, lacayote – Cucurbita sp. - jam, dried llama meat, fours of cañahua and other Andean crops). The implementation of these activities fostered the community-based livelihoods of indigenous people by complementing them with carefully and jointly designed innovations based on internal and external sources of knowledge and resources. Through this process, the epistemological and ontological basis that underlies local practices was made visible. On this basis, local and external actors started to jointly define a renewed concept of food security and food sovereignty that, while oriented in the notions of well being according to a collectively re-crafted world view, was incorporating external contributions as well. Enabling and hindering factors, actors and conditions of these processes are discussed in the paper.

Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.