Fetal Pulmonary Response After Fetoscopic Tracheal Occlusion for Severe Isolated Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the response in lung growth and vascularity after fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion for severe congenital diaphragmatic hernia in the prediction of neonatal survival. METHODS: Between January 2006 and December 2010, fetal lung parameters (observed-to-expected lung-to-head ratio; observed-to-expected lung volume; and contralateral lung vascularization index) were evaluated before fetal tracheal occlusion and were evaluated longitudinally every 2 weeks in 72 fetuses with severe isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia. Thirty-five fetuses underwent fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion and 37 cases did not. RESULTS: Survival rate was significantly higher in the fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion group (54.3%) than in the no fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion group (5.4%, P<.01). Fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion resulted in a significant improvement in fetal lung size and pulmonary vascularity when compared with fetuses that did not go to the fetal intervention (increase of the observed-to-expected lung-to-head ratio, observed-to-expected total lung volume, and contralateral pulmonary vascularization index 56.2% compared with 0.3%, 37.9% compared with 0.1%, and 98.6% compared with 0.0%, respectively; P<.01). Receiver operating characteristic curves indicated that the observed-to-expected total fetal lung volume was the single best predictor of neonatal survival before fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion (cutoff 0.23, area under the curve [AUC] 0.88, relative risk 5.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4-19.7). However, the contralateral lung vascularization index at 4 weeks after fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion was more accurate in the prediction of neonatal outcome (cutoff 24.0%, AUC 0.98, relative risk 9.9, 95% CI 1.5-66.9) with the combination of observed-to-expected lung volumes and contralateral lung vascularization index at 4 weeks being the best predictor of outcome (AUC 0.98, relative risk 16.6, 95% CI 2.5-112.3). CONCLUSION: Fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion improves survival rate by increasing the lung size and pulmonary vascularity in fetuses with severe congenital diaphragmatic hernia. The pulmonary response after fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion can be used to predict neonatal survival. (Obstet Gynecol 2012; 119: 93-101) DOI: 10.1097/AOG.0b013e31823d3aea

Comparison of venous plasma glycemia and capillary glycemia for the screening of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Japanese-Brazilian community of Mombuca (Guatapará-SP)

Abstract Background To identify the most appropriate cut-off points of fasting glycemia for the screening of diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2) with the comparison of the properties of capillary glycemia (CG) and venous blood plasma glycemia (PG) in a population of Japanese origin from the community of Mombuca, Guatapará - SP, Brazil. Methods This was a population-based descriptive cross-sectional study conducted on a sample of 131 individuals of both genders aged 20 years or more (66.8% of the target population). CG was measured with a glucometer in a blood sample obtained from the fingertip and PG was determined by an enzymatic method (hexokinase) in venous blood plasma, after a 10-14 hour fast in both cases. Data were analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in order to identify the best cut-off point for fasting glycemia (CG and PG) for the diagnosis of DM, using the 2-hour plasma glycemia > 200 mg/dl as gold - standard. Results The ROC curve revealed that the best cut-off point for the screening of DM was 110 mg/dl for CG and 105 mg/dl for PG, values that would optimize the relation between individuals with positive and false-positive results. The area under the ROC curve was 0.814 for CG (p < 0.01) and 0.836 for PG (p < 0.01). Conclusions The cut-off points of 105 mg/dl(5.8 mmol/l) for PG and of 110 mg/dl(6.1 mmol/l) for CG appear to be the most appropriate for the screening of DM2 in the population under study, with emphasis on the fact that the value recommended for CG is 5 mg/dl higher than that for PG, in contrast to WHO recommendations.

Cellular Proliferation in the Prognosis of Intermediate Grade Mast Cell Tumour in Dogs

This was a retrospective study including ninety samples of dogs with a histological diagnosis of intermediate grade cutaneous mast cell tumour (MCT). The objectives of the study were to validate Minichromosome Maintenance Protein 7 (MCM7) as a prognostic marker in MCTs and to compare the ability of mitotic index (MI), Ki67 and MCM7 to predict outcome. The median survival for the entire population was not reached at 2099 days. The mean survival time was 1708 days. Seventy-two cases were censored after a median follow up of 1136 days and eighteen dogs died for causes related to the MCT after a median of 116 days. For each sample MI, Ki67 and MCM7 were determined. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was obtained for each prognostic marker to evaluate the performance of the test, expressed as area under the curve, and whether the published threshold value was adequate. Kaplan-Meier and corresponding logrank test for MI, Ki67 and MCM7 as binary variables was highly significant (P<0.0001). Multivariable regression analysis of MI, Ki67 and MCM7 corrected for age and surgical margins indicated that the higher risk of dying of MCT was associated with MCM7 > 0.18 (Hazard Ration [HR] 14.7; P<0.001) followed by MI > 5 (HR 13.9; P<0.001) and Ki67 > 0.018 (HR 8.9; P<0.001). Concluding, the present study confirmed that MCM7 is an excellent prognostic marker in cutaneous MCTs being able to divide Patnaik intermediate grade tumours in two categories with different prognosis. Ki67 was equally good confirming its value as a prognostic marker in intermediate grade MCTs. The mitotic index was extremely specific, but lacked of sensitivity. Interestingly, mitotic index, Ki67 and MCM7 were independent from each other suggesting that their combination would improve their individual prognostic value.

Loss of the CBX7 protein expression correlates with a more aggressive phenotype in pancreatic cancer

Polycomb group (PcG) proteins function as multiprotein complexes and are part of a gene regulatory mechanism that determines cell fate during normal and pathogenic development. Several studies have implicated the deregulation of different PcG proteins in neoplastic progression. Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is an aggressive neoplasm that follows a multistep model of progression through precursor lesions called pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN). Aim of this study was to investigate the role of PcG protein CBX7 in pancreatic carcinogenesis and to evaluate its possible diagnostic and prognostic significance. We analysed by immunohistochemistry the expression of CBX7 in 210 ductal pancreatic adenocarcinomas from resection specimens, combined on a tissue microarray (TMA) including additional 40 PanIN cases and 40 normal controls. The results were evaluated by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis for the selection of cut-off scores and correlated to the clinicopathological parameters of the tumours and the outcome of the patients. Expression of E-cadherin, a protein positively regulated by CBX7, was also assessed. A significantly differential, and progressively decreasing CBX7 protein expression was found between normal pancreatic tissue, PanINs and invasive ductal adenocarcinoma. Loss of CBX7 expression was associated with increasing malignancy grade in pancreatic adenocarcinoma, whereas the maintenance of CBX7 expression showed a trend toward a longer survival. Moreover, loss of E-cadherin expression was associated with loss of CBX7 and with a trend towards worse patient survival. These results suggest that CBX7 plays a role in pancreatic carcinogenesis and that its loss of expression correlates to a more aggressive phenotype.

Comprehensive analysis of CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP)-high, -low, and -negative colorectal cancers based on protein marker expression and molecular features

CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) is being investigated for its role in the molecular and prognostic classification of colorectal cancer patients but is also emerging as a factor with the potential to influence clinical decision-making. We report a comprehensive analysis of clinico-pathological and molecular features (KRAS, BRAF and microsatellite instability, MSI) as well as of selected tumour- and host-related protein markers characterizing CIMP-high (CIMP-H), -low, and -negative colorectal cancers. Immunohistochemical analysis for 48 protein markers and molecular analysis of CIMP (CIMP-H: ? 4/5 methylated genes), MSI (MSI-H: ? 2 instable genes), KRAS, and BRAF were performed on 337 colorectal cancers. Simple and multiple regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were performed. CIMP-H was found in 24 cases (7.1%) and linked (p < 0.0001) to more proximal tumour location, BRAF mutation, MSI-H, MGMT methylation (p = 0.022), advanced pT classification (p = 0.03), mucinous histology (p = 0.069), and less frequent KRAS mutation (p = 0.067) compared to CIMP-low or -negative cases. Of the 48 protein markers, decreased levels of RKIP (p = 0.0056), EphB2 (p = 0.0045), CK20 (p = 0.002), and Cdx2 (p < 0.0001) and increased numbers of CD8+ intra-epithelial lymphocytes (p < 0.0001) were related to CIMP-H, independently of MSI status. In addition to the expected clinico-pathological and molecular associations, CIMP-H colorectal cancers are characterized by a loss of protein markers associated with differentiation, and metastasis suppression, and have increased CD8+ T-lymphocytes regardless of MSI status. In particular, Cdx2 loss seems to strongly predict CIMP-H in both microsatellite-stable (MSS) and MSI-H colorectal cancers. Cdx2 is proposed as a surrogate marker for CIMP-H.

Intratumoral budding is preoperative biopsies predicts local and distant metastasis in colorectal cancer patients

Objective: In 2011, the term “intratumoral budding, ITB” was used to describe the presence of tumor buds within the main tumor body and was correlated to worse clinical outcome in colorectal cancer patients. Here, we further elucidate the potential clinical role of ITB in pre-operative biopsies using pan-cytokeratin stained tissues and a quantitative scoring system. Method: 139 pre-operative biopsies from patients with colorectal cancer underwent immunohistochemistry for pancytokeratin (AE1/AE3). ITB were counted in the area of densest budding (40×) and classified as high-grade when >10 buds/HPF were observed based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: High-grade ITB occurred in 26.6 % of cases and was associated with right-sided tumor location (p=0.0356), more advanced pT (p=0.0198) and pN (p<0.0001) classifications, distant metastasis (p=0.0164), higher tumor grade (p=0.0037) and lymphatic invasion (p=0.0445). The specificity and positive predictive value for lymph node metastasis was 86.7 % and 75.6 %, respectively. Disease-free survival was significantly worse in patients with high-grade ITB (5-year survival=25 %) in comparison to patients with low-grade ITB (5-year survival=55 %) (p=0.0157). Conclusion: The assessment of ITB in pre-operative biopsies is predictive of local and distant metastasis in corresponding resections and should be considered in daily management of colorectal cancer patients.

Prognostic impact of lymph node ratio outperforms positive lymph nodes and lymph nodes harvested: a time-dependent analysis in mismatch repair-proficient and –deficient colrectal cancers

Objective: We compare the prognostic strength of the lymph node ratio (LNR), positive lymph nodes (+LNs) and collected lymph nodes (LNcoll) using a time-dependent analysis in colorectal cancer patients stratified by mismatch repair (MMR) status. Method: 580 stage III-IV patients were included. Multivariable Cox regression analysis and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (tROC) curve analysis were performed. The Area under the Curve (AUC) over time was compared for the three features. Results were validated on a second cohort of 105 stage III-IV patients. Results: The AUC for the LNR was 0.71 and outperformed + LNs and LNcoll by 10–15 % in both MMR-proficient and deficient cancers. LNR and + LNs were both significant (p<0.0001) in multivariable analysis but the effect was considerably stronger for the LNR [LNR: HR=5.18 (95 % CI: 3.5–7.6); +LNs=1.06 (95 % CI: 1.04–1.08)]. Similar results were obtained for patients with >12 LNcoll. An optimal cut off score for LNR=0.231 was validated on the second cohort (p<0.001). Conclusion: The LNR outperforms the + LNs and LNcoll even in patients with >12 LNcoll. Its clinical value is not confounded by MMR status. A cut-of score of 0.231 may best stratify patients into prognostic subgroups and could be a basis for the future prospective analysis of the LNR.

Should 3K zoom function be used for detection of pneumothorax in cesium iodide/amorphous silicon flat-panel detector radiographs presented on 1K-matrix soft copies?

The purpose of the study was to evaluate observer performance in the detection of pneumothorax with cesium iodide and amorphous silicon flat-panel detector radiography (CsI/a-Si FDR) presented as 1K and 3K soft-copy images. Forty patients with and 40 patients without pneumothorax diagnosed on previous and subsequent digital storage phosphor radiography (SPR, gold standard) had follow-up chest radiographs with CsI/a-Si FDR. Four observers confirmed or excluded the diagnosis of pneumothorax according to a five-point scale first on the 1K soft-copy image and then with help of 3K zoom function (1K monitor). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed for each modality (1K and 3K). The area under the curve (AUC) values for each observer were 0.7815, 0.7779, 0.7946 and 0.7066 with 1K-matrix soft copies and 0.8123, 0.7997, 0.8078 and 0.7522 with 3K zoom. Overall detection of pneumothorax was better with 3K zoom. Differences between the two display methods were not statistically significant in 3 of 4 observers (p-values between 0.13 and 0.44; observer 4: p = 0.02). The detection of pneumothorax with 3K zoom is better than with 1K soft copy but not at a statistically significant level. Differences between both display methods may be subtle. Still, our results indicate that 3K zoom should be employed in clinical practice.

Model Checking for ROC Regression Analysis

The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a prominent tool for characterizing the accuracy of continuous diagnostic test. To account for factors that might invluence the test accuracy, various ROC regression methods have been proposed. However, as in any regression analysis, when the assumed models do not fit the data well, these methods may render invalid and misleading results. To date practical model checking techniques suitable for validating existing ROC regression models are not yet available. In this paper, we develop cumulative residual based procedures to graphically and numerically assess the goodness-of-fit for some commonly used ROC regression models, and show how specific components of these models can be examined within this framework. We derive asymptotic null distributions for the residual process and discuss resampling procedures to approximate these distributions in practice. We illustrate our methods with a dataset from the Cystic Fibrosis registry.

Novel pressure-to-cornea index in glaucoma

BACKGROUND: Several conversion tables and formulas have been suggested to correct applanation intraocular pressure (IOP) for central corneal thickness (CCT). CCT is also thought to represent an independent glaucoma risk factor. In an attempt to integrate IOP and CCT into a unified risk factor and avoid uncertain correction for tonometric inaccuracy, a new pressure-to-cornea index (PCI) is proposed. METHODS: PCI (IOP/CCT(3)) was defined as the ratio between untreated IOP and CCT(3) in mm (ultrasound pachymetry). PCI distribution in 220 normal controls, 53 patients with normal-tension glaucoma (NTG), 76 with ocular hypertension (OHT), and 89 with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) was investigated. PCI's ability to discriminate between glaucoma (NTG+POAG) and non-glaucoma (controls+OHT) was compared with that of three published formulae for correcting IOP for CCT. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were built. RESULTS: Mean PCI values were: Controls 92.0 (SD 24.8), NTG 129.1 (SD 25.8), OHT 134.0 (SD 26.5), POAG 173.6 (SD 40.9). To minimise IOP bias, eyes within the same 2 mm Hg range between 16 and 29 mm Hg (16-17, 18-19, etc) were separately compared: control and NTG eyes as well as OHT and POAG eyes differed significantly. PCI demonstrated a larger area under the ROC curve (AUC) and significantly higher sensitivity at fixed 80% and 90% specificities compared with each of the correction formulas; optimum PCI cut-off value 133.8. CONCLUSIONS: A PCI range of 120-140 is proposed as the upper limit of "normality", 120 being the cut-off value for eyes with untreated pressures or=22 mm Hg. PCI may reflect individual susceptibility to a given IOP level, and thus represent a glaucoma risk factor. Longitudinal studies are needed to prove its prognostic value.

An empirical comparison of methods for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy showed hierarchical models are necessary

OBJECTIVE: Meta-analysis of studies of the accuracy of diagnostic tests currently uses a variety of methods. Statistically rigorous hierarchical models require expertise and sophisticated software. We assessed whether any of the simpler methods can in practice give adequately accurate and reliable results. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We reviewed six methods for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy: four simple commonly used methods (simple pooling, separate random-effects meta-analyses of sensitivity and specificity, separate meta-analyses of positive and negative likelihood ratios, and the Littenberg-Moses summary receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve) and two more statistically rigorous approaches using hierarchical models (bivariate random-effects meta-analysis and hierarchical summary ROC curve analysis). We applied the methods to data from a sample of eight systematic reviews chosen to illustrate a variety of patterns of results. RESULTS: In each meta-analysis, there was substantial heterogeneity between the results of different studies. Simple pooling of results gave misleading summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity in some meta-analyses, and the Littenberg-Moses method produced summary ROC curves that diverged from those produced by more rigorous methods in some situations. CONCLUSION: The closely related hierarchical summary ROC curve or bivariate models should be used as the standard method for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy.

PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

Is perioperative point-of-care prothrombin time testing accurate compared to the standard laboratory test?

There is no accepted way of measuring prothrombin time without time loss for patients undergoing major surgery who are at risk of intraoperative dilution and consumption coagulopathy due to bleeding and volume replacement with crystalloids or colloids. Decisions to transfuse fresh frozen plasma and procoagulatory drugs have to rely on clinical judgment in these situations. Point-of-care devices are considerably faster than the standard laboratory methods. In this study we assessed the accuracy of a Point-of-care (PoC) device measuring prothrombin time compared to the standard laboratory method. Patients undergoing major surgery and intensive care unit patients were included. PoC prothrombin time was measured by CoaguChek XS Plus (Roche Diagnostics, Switzerland). PoC and reference tests were performed independently and interpreted under blinded conditions. Using a cut-off prothrombin time of 50%, we calculated diagnostic accuracy measures, plotted a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and tested for equivalence between the two methods. PoC sensitivity and specificity were 95% (95% CI 77%, 100%) and 95% (95% CI 91%, 98%) respectively. The negative likelihood ratio was 0.05 (95% CI 0.01, 0.32). The positive likelihood ratio was 19.57 (95% CI 10.62, 36.06). The area under the ROC curve was 0.988. Equivalence between the two methods was confirmed. CoaguChek XS Plus is a rapid and highly accurate test compared with the reference test. These findings suggest that PoC testing will be useful for monitoring intraoperative prothrombin time when coagulopathy is suspected. It could lead to a more rational use of expensive and limited blood bank resources.

Identification of pathogen and host-response markers correlated with periodontal disease

BACKGROUND: Periodontitis is the major cause of tooth loss in adults and is linked to systemic illnesses, such as cardiovascular disease and stroke. The development of rapid point-of-care (POC) chairside diagnostics has the potential for the early detection of periodontal infection and progression to identify incipient disease and reduce health care costs. However, validation of effective diagnostics requires the identification and verification of biomarkers correlated with disease progression. This clinical study sought to determine the ability of putative host- and microbially derived biomarkers to identify periodontal disease status from whole saliva and plaque biofilm. METHODS: One hundred human subjects were equally recruited into a healthy/gingivitis group or a periodontitis population. Whole saliva was collected from all subjects and analyzed using antibody arrays to measure the levels of multiple proinflammatory cytokines and bone resorptive/turnover markers. RESULTS: Salivary biomarker data were correlated to comprehensive clinical, radiographic, and microbial plaque biofilm levels measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) for the generation of models for periodontal disease identification. Significantly elevated levels of matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-8 and -9 were found in subjects with advanced periodontitis with Random Forest importance scores of 7.1 and 5.1, respectively. The generation of receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated that permutations of salivary biomarkers and pathogen biofilm values augmented the prediction of disease category. Multiple combinations of salivary biomarkers (especially MMP-8 and -9 and osteoprotegerin) combined with red-complex anaerobic periodontal pathogens (such as Porphyromonas gingivalis or Treponema denticola) provided highly accurate predictions of periodontal disease category. Elevated salivary MMP-8 and T. denticola biofilm levels displayed robust combinatorial characteristics in predicting periodontal disease severity (area under the curve = 0.88; odds ratio = 24.6; 95% confidence interval: 5.2 to 116.5). CONCLUSIONS: Using qPCR and sensitive immunoassays, we identified host- and bacterially derived biomarkers correlated with periodontal disease. This approach offers significant potential for the discovery of biomarker signatures useful in the development of rapid POC chairside diagnostics for oral and systemic diseases. Studies are ongoing to apply this approach to the longitudinal predictions of disease activity.

Arterial blood pressure during early sepsis and outcome

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between arterial blood pressure (ABP) during the first 24 h and mortality in sepsis. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Multidisciplinary intensive care unit (ICU). PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 274 septic patients. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Hemodynamic, and laboratory parameters were extracted from a PDMS database. The hourly time integral of ABP drops below clinically relevant systolic arterial pressure (SAP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and mean perfusion pressure (MPP = MAP - central venous pressure) levels was calculated for the first 24 h after ICU admission and compared with 28-day-mortality. Binary and linear regression models (adjusted for SAPS II as a measure of disease severity), and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were applied. The areas under the ROC curve were largest for the hourly time integrals of ABP drops below MAP 60 mmHg (0.779 vs. 0.764 for ABP drops below MAP 55 mmHg; P < or = 0.01) and MPP 45 mmHg. No association between the hourly time integrals of ABP drops below certain SAP levels and mortality was detected. One or more episodes of MAP < 60 mmHg increased the risk of death by 2.96 (CI 95%, 1.06-10.36, P = 0.04). The area under the ROC curve to predict the need for renal replacement therapy was highest for the hourly time integral of ABP drops below MAP 75 mmHg. CONCLUSIONS: A MAP level > or = 60 mmHg may be as safe as higher MAP levels during the first 24 h of ICU therapy in septic patients. A higher MAP may be required to maintain kidney function.