Analysing trends in cardiovascular mortality: some methodological points.

This paper comments on the drop in coronary heart disease mortality observed in Switzerland among middle-aged men since the mid-seventies. Several methodological points are made regarding the consistency of this decline (relationships with mortality from other causes), and the reasons for this drop (possible change in population mix). It is suggested that a more complete use of vital statistics is still possible and that this can provide useful clues for the assessment and the interpretation of mortality trends in the field of cardiovascular epidemiology.

Municipal distribution of bladder cancer mortality in Spain: Possible role of mining and industry

BACKGROUND Spain shows the highest bladder cancer incidence rates in men among European countries. The most important risk factors are tobacco smoking and occupational exposure to a range of different chemical substances, such as aromatic amines. METHODS This paper describes the municipal distribution of bladder cancer mortality and attempts to "adjust" this spatial pattern for the prevalence of smokers, using the autoregressive spatial model proposed by Besag, York and Molliè, with relative risk of lung cancer mortality as a surrogate. RESULTS It has been possible to compile and ascertain the posterior distribution of relative risk for bladder cancer adjusted for lung cancer mortality, on the basis of a single Bayesian spatial model covering all of Spain's 8077 towns. Maps were plotted depicting smoothed relative risk (RR) estimates, and the distribution of the posterior probability of RR>1 by sex. Towns that registered the highest relative risks for both sexes were mostly located in the Provinces of Cadiz, Seville, Huelva, Barcelona and Almería. The highest-risk area in Barcelona Province corresponded to very specific municipal areas in the Bages district, e.g., Suría, Sallent, Balsareny, Manresa and Cardona. CONCLUSION Mining/industrial pollution and the risk entailed in certain occupational exposures could in part be dictating the pattern of municipal bladder cancer mortality in Spain. Population exposure to arsenic is a matter that calls for attention. It would be of great interest if the relationship between the chemical quality of drinking water and the frequency of bladder cancer could be studied.

Residual effect of a micro-encapsulated formulation of organophosphates and piriproxifen on the mortality of deltamethrin resistant Triatoma infestans populations in rural houses of the Bolivian Chaco region

The Bolivian Chaco is part of the endemic region of Chagas disease and an area where pyrethroid resistant Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) populations has been reported. The World Health Organization identified these resistant populations as an important focus for research. The objective of this study was to evaluate the residual effect of a micro-encapsulated formulation containing organophosphate active ingredients and a juvenile hormone analogue (Inesfly 5A IGR) on the mortality of T. infestans. Studies took place in rural houses of the Bolivian Chaco that were treated up to 34 months before and evaluated the susceptibility to pyrethroids of the offspring of field collected insects. Thirty houses were randomly selected within three communities to carry out wall bio-assays with T. infestans nymphs. Mortality was recorded 24, 48 and 72 h after wall contact. Eggs laid by females collected in the area were used to obtain first-instar nymphs and carry out pyrethroid susceptibility tests. The wall bio-assays showed that the micro-encapsulated insecticide eliminates T. infestans populations and produces detectable mortality of insects exposed to walls treated 34 months prior to the tests. The discriminant dose of deltamethrin (0.01 mg/mL) showed 65% nymph survival, whereas at the highest tested dose (1.0 mg/mL) 14% of the nymphs survived. These results show that Inesfly 5A IGR is an appropriate tool for the elimination of intradomestic and peridomestic populations of T. infestans resistant to pyrethroids.

Trends in mortality from major cancers in the americas : 1980-2010

BACKGROUND: Between the 1970's and 2000 mortality in Latin America showed favorable trends for some common cancer sites, including stomach and male lung cancer in most countries. However, major concerns were related to mortality patterns from other cancers, particularly in women. We provide an up-to-date picture of patterns and trends in cancer mortality in Latin America. METHODS: We analyzed data from the World Health Organization mortality database in 2005-2009 for 20 cancer sites in 11 Latin American countries and, for comparative purposes, in the USA and Canada. We computed age-standardized (world) rates (per 100 000 person-year) and provided an overview of trends since 1980 using joinpoint regression models. RESULTS: Cancer mortality from some common cancers (including colorectum and lung) is still comparatively low in Latin America, and decreasing trends continue for some cancer sites (including stomach, uterus, male lung cancers) in several countries. However, there were upward trends for colorectal cancer for both sexes, and for women lung and breast cancer mortality in most countries. During the last decade, lung cancer mortality in women rose by 1-3% per year in all Latin American countries except Mexico and Costa Rica, whereas rises of about 1% were registered for breast cancer in Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela. Moreover, high mortality from cancer of the cervix uteri was recorded in most countries, with rates over 13/100 000 women in Cuba and Venezuela. In men, upward trends were registered in prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and Colombia, but also in Cuba, where the rate in 2005-2009 was more than twice that in the USA (23.6 versus 10/100 000). CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco control, efficient screening programs, early cancer detection and widespread access to treatments continue to be a major priority for most Latin American countries.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2013.

Background Estimated cancer mortality statistics were published for the years 2011 and 2012 for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Patients and methods Using logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint models and the World Health Organization mortality and population database, we estimated numbers of deaths and age-standardized (world) mortality rates (ASRs) in 2013 from all cancers and selected cancers. Results The 2013 predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU is 1 314 296 (737 747 men and 576 489 women). Between 2009 and 2013, all cancer ASRs are predicted to fall by 6% to 140.1/100 000 in men, and by 4% to 85.3/100 000 in women. The ASRs per 100 000 are 6.6 men and 2.9 women for stomach, 16.7 men and 9.5 women for intestines, 8.0 men and 5.5 women for pancreas, 37.1 men and 13.9 women for lung, 10.5 men for prostate, 14.6 women for breast, and 4.7 for uterine cancer, and 4.2 and 2.6 for leukaemia. Recent trends are favourable except for pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women. Conclusions Favourable trends will continue in 2013. Pancreatic cancer has become the fourth cause of cancer death in both sexes, while in a few years lung cancer will likely become the first cause of cancer mortality in women as well, overtaking breast cancer.

Pre-hospital antibiotic treatment and mortality caused by invasive meningococcal disease, adjusting for indication bias.

Background: Mortality from invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) has remained stable over the last thirty years and it is unclear whether pre-hospital antibiotherapy actually produces a decrease in this mortality. Our aim was to examine whether pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy reduces mortality from IMD, adjusting for indication bias. Methods: A retrospective analysis was made of clinical reports of all patients (n = 848) diagnosed with IMD from 1995 to 2000 in Andalusia and the Canary Islands, Spain, and of the relationship between the use of pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy and mortality. Indication bias was controlled for by the propensity score technique, and a multivariate analysis was performed to determine the probability of each patient receiving antibiotics, according to the symptoms identified before admission. Data on in-hospital death, use of antibiotics and demographic variables were collected. A logistic regression analysis was then carried out, using death as the dependent variable, and prehospital antibiotic use, age, time from onset of symptoms to parenteral antibiotics and the propensity score as independent variables. Results: Data were recorded on 848 patients, 49 (5.72%) of whom died. Of the total number of patients, 226 had received oral antibiotics before admission, mainly betalactams during the previous 48 hours. After adjusting the association between the use of antibiotics and death for age, time between onset of symptoms and in-hospital antibiotic treatment, pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy remained a significant protective factor (Odds Ratio for death 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15–0.93). Conclusion: Pre-hospital oral antibiotherapy appears to reduce IMD mortality.

Social inequalities and mortality in Europe-results from a large multi-national cohort

BACKGROUND Socio-economic inequalities in mortality are observed at the country level in both North America and Europe. The purpose of this work is to investigate the contribution of specific risk factors to social inequalities in cause-specific mortality using a large multi-country cohort of Europeans. METHODS A total of 3,456,689 person/years follow-up of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) was analysed. Educational level of subjects coming from 9 European countries was recorded as proxy for socio-economic status (SES). Cox proportional hazard model's with a step-wise inclusion of explanatory variables were used to explore the association between SES and mortality; a Relative Index of Inequality (RII) was calculated as measure of relative inequality. RESULTS Total mortality among men with the highest education level is reduced by 43% compared to men with the lowest (HR 0.57, 95% C.I. 0.52-0.61); among women by 29% (HR 0.71, 95% C.I. 0.64-0.78). The risk reduction was attenuated by 7% in men and 3% in women by the introduction of smoking and to a lesser extent (2% in men and 3% in women) by introducing body mass index and additional explanatory variables (alcohol consumption, leisure physical activity, fruit and vegetable intake) (3% in men and 5% in women). Social inequalities were highly statistically significant for all causes of death examined in men. In women, social inequalities were less strong, but statistically significant for all causes of death except for cancer-related mortality and injuries. DISCUSSION In this European study, substantial social inequalities in mortality among European men and women which cannot be fully explained away by accounting for known common risk factors for chronic diseases are reported.

Reduction in morbidity and mortality from childhood diarrhoeal disease after species A rotavirus vaccine introduction in Latin America : a review

Countries in Latin America were among the first to implement routine vaccination against species A rotavirus (RVA). We evaluate data from Latin America on reductions in gastroenteritis and RVA disease burden following the introduction of RVA vaccine. Published literature was reviewed to identify case-control studies of vaccine effectiveness and population-based studies examining longitudinal trends of diarrhoeal disease reduction after RVA vaccine introduction in Latin American countries. RVA vaccine effectiveness and impact on gastroenteritis mortality and hospitalization rates and RVA hospitalization rates are described. Among middle-income Latin American countries with published data (Mexico, Brazil, El Salvador and Panama), RVA vaccine contributed to a gastroenteritis-associated mortality reduction of 22-41%, a gastroenteritis-associated hospitalization reduction of 17-51% and a RVA hospitalization reduction of 59-81% among children younger than five years of age. In Brazil and El Salvador, case-control studies demonstrated that a full RVA vaccination schedule was 76-85% effective against RVA hospitalization; a lower effectiveness of 46% was seen in Nicaragua, the only low-income country with available data. A growing body of literature offers convincing evidence of "real world" vaccine program successes in Latin American settings, which may be expanded as more countries in the region include RVA vaccine in their immunization programs.

Signifiant decrease in in-hospital mortality and major adverse cardiac events in Swiss STEMI patients between 2000 and December 2007

Rapport de synthèse : Objectifs : évaluer la survie intra-hospitalière des patients présentant un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST admis dans les hôpitaux suisses entre 2000 et 2007, et identifier les paramètres prédictifs de mortalité intra-hospitalière et d'événements cardio-vasculaires majeurs (infarctus, réinfarctus, attaque cérébrale). Méthode : utilisation des données du registre national suisse AMIS Plus (Acute Myocardial lnfarction and Unstable Angina in Switzerland). Tous les patients admis pour un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST ou bloc de branche gauche nouveau dans un hôpital suisse participant au registre entre janvier 2000 et décembre 2007 ont été inclus. Résultats: nous avons étudié 12 026 patients présentant un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST ou bloc de branche gauche nouveau admis dans 54 hôpitaux suisses différents. L'âge moyen est de 64+-13 ans et 73% des patients inclus sont des hommes. L'incidence de mortalité intra-hospitalière est de 7.6% en 2000 et de 6% en 2007. Le taux de réinfarctus diminue de 3.7% en 2000 à 0.9% en 2007. L'utilisation de médicaments thrombolytiques chute de 40.2% à 2% entre 2000 et 2007. Les paramètres prédictifs cliniques de mortalité sont : un âge> 65-ans, une classe Killips Ill ou IV, un diabète et un infarctus du myocarde avec onde Q (au moment de la présentation). Les patients traités par revascularisation coronarienne percutanée ont un taux inférieur de mortalité et de réinfarctus (3.9% versus 11.2% et 1.1% versus 3.1%, respectivement, p<0.001) sur la période de temps étudiée. Le nombre de patients traités par revascularisation coronarienne percutanée augmente de 43% en 2000 à 85% en 2007. Les patients admis dans les hôpitaux bénéficiant d'une salle de cathétérisme cardiaque ont un taux de mortalité plus bas que les patients hopitalisés dans les centres sans salle de cathétérisme cardiaque. Mais les caractéristiques démographiques de ces deux populations sont très différentes. La mortalité intra-hospitalière ainsi que le taux de réinfarctus diminuent significativement au cours y de la période étudiée, parallèlement à l'augmentation de |'utilisation de la revascularisation coronarienne percutanée. La revascularisation coronarienne percutanée est le paramètre prédictif de survie le plus important. Conclusion: la mortalité intra-hospitalière et le taux de réinfarctus du myocarde ont diminué de manière significative chez les patients souffrant d'un infarctus du myocarde avec sus-décalage du segment ST au cours de ces sept dernières années, parallèlement à l'augmentation significative de la revascularisation coronarienne percutanée en plus de la thérapie médicamenteuse. La survie n'est È pas liée au lieu d'hospitalisation mais à l'accès à une revascularisation coronarienne percutanée.

Activated protein C, severe sepsis and 28-day mortality.

Protein C (PC) de ciency is prevalent in severe sepsis, studies showing that more than 80% of patients with severe sepsis have a baseline PC level below the lower limit of normal [1,2]. The aim of the study was to relate the anticoagulation activity evaluated by PC, with clinical parameters and 28-day mortality.

A cohort study of routinely used sepsis biomarkers and 28-day mortality.

The evaluation of sepsis severity is complicated by the highly variable and nonspecific nature of clinical signs and symptoms. We studied routinely used biomarkers together with clinical parameters to compare their prognostic value for severe sepsis and evaluate their usefulness.

Depletion of CD25+ cells during acute toxoplasmosis does not significantly increase mortality in Swiss OF1 mice

The interleukin (IL)-2R alpha chain (CD25) is expressed on regulatory T cells (Treg), which constitute more than 85% of the CD25+ T cell population in a naïve mouse. CD25 is also expressed on effector T cells in mice suffering from an acute infection by the obligate intracellular protozoan parasite, Toxoplasma gondii. Lethal toxoplasmosis is accompanied by a significant loss of Treg in mice naturally susceptible to toxoplasmosis. The present study was done to explore the role of Treg cells using an anti-CD25 antibody-mediated depletion in mice naturally resistant to toxoplasmosis. Although a significant decrease in the percentage of Treg cells was observed following anti-CD25 monoclonal antibody injections, the depletion of CD25+ cells during acute toxoplasmosis did not significantly increase the mortality of Swiss OF1 mice and no significant difference was observed in the brain parasitic load between the mice in the depleted-infected and isotype-infected groups. We found no significant difference between the titres of total IgG in the sera of the mice from the two groups in the chronic phase. However, CD25+ cells depletion was followed by significantly higher levels of IL-12 in the serum of depleted mice than in that of mice injected with the isotype control antibody.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2014.

BACKGROUND: From most recent available data, we projected cancer mortality statistics for 2014, for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Specific attention was given to pancreatic cancer, the only major neoplasm showing unfavorable trends in both sexes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2014 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: In the EU in 2014, 1,323,600 deaths from cancer are predicted (742,500 men and 581,100 women), corresponding to standardized death rates of 138.1/100,000 men and 84.7/100,000 women, falling by 7% and 5%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate cancer) are lower than in 2009, falling by 8%, 4% and 10%, respectively. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favorable trends (-9% and -7%), but female lung cancer rates are predicted to rise 8%. Pancreatic cancer is the only neoplasm with a negative outlook in both sexes. Only in the young (25-49 years), EU trends become more favorable in men, while women keep registering slight predicted rises. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality predictions for 2014 confirm the overall favorable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 20% in women, and the avoidance of over 250,000 deaths in 2014 compared with the peak rate. Notable exceptions are female lung cancer and pancreatic cancer in both sexes.

The residual efficacy of a cypermethrin pour-on formulation applied on goats on the mortality and blood intake of Triatoma infestans

Triatoma infestans is the main vector of Trypanosoma cruzi, the aetiological agent of Chagas disease in the Gran Chaco region of South America. As a frequent blood meal source for triatomine bugs, domestic goats play a key role in the eco-epidemiology of Chagas disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the mortality and blood intake of T. infestans fed on goats that had been treated with different doses of pour-on insecticide. Third-instar nymphs were fed on goats that had been treated with 0 cc, 5 cc, 10 cc or 15 cc of a pour-on formulation of cypermethrin. The exposure of T. infestans to animals treated at different post-application intervals revealed a residual activity of the insecticide. The mortality rate in the treated groups was higher than in the control groups until 30 days post-insecticide application (p = 0.03), except in the group treated with 5 cc, in which no mortality was detected after seven days of insecticide application. Rainfall affected the triatomicide effect, reducing the time of residual activity. The cypermethrin pour-on treatment decreased the blood intake of T. infestans. Thirty days after the cypermethrin application, nymph mortality was 16% (± 13) with both doses (10 cc and 15 cc). The 15 cc dose did not result in higher insect mortality or increased persistence compared to the 10 cc dose.

Meat consumption and mortality - results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

BACKGROUND Recently, some US cohorts have shown a moderate association between red and processed meat consumption and mortality supporting the results of previous studies among vegetarians. The aim of this study was to examine the association of red meat, processed meat, and poultry consumption with the risk of early death in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). METHODS Included in the analysis were 448,568 men and women without prevalent cancer, stroke, or myocardial infarction, and with complete information on diet, smoking, physical activity and body mass index, who were between 35 and 69 years old at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the association of meat consumption with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS As of June 2009, 26,344 deaths were observed. After multivariate adjustment, a high consumption of red meat was related to higher all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.28, 160+ versus 10 to 19.9 g/day), and the association was stronger for processed meat (HR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.66, 160+ versus 10 to 19.9 g/day). After correction for measurement error, higher all-cause mortality remained significant only for processed meat (HR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.25, per 50 g/d). We estimated that 3.3% (95% CI 1.5% to 5.0%) of deaths could be prevented if all participants had a processed meat consumption of less than 20 g/day. Significant associations with processed meat intake were observed for cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and 'other causes of death'. The consumption of poultry was not related to all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS The results of our analysis support a moderate positive association between processed meat consumption and mortality, in particular due to cardiovascular diseases, but also to cancer.