Virus infection speeds: theory versus experiment

In order to explain the speed of Vesicular Stomatitis Virus VSV infections, we develop a simple model that improves previous approaches to the propagation of virus infections. For VSV infections, we find that the delay time elapsed between the adsorption of a viral particle into a cell and the release of its progeny has a veryimportant effect. Moreover, this delay time makes the adsorption rate essentially irrelevant in order to predict VSV infection speeds. Numerical simulations are in agreement with the analytical results. Our model satisfactorily explains the experimentally measured speeds of VSV infections

Structural and mean level analyses of the Five-Factor Model and Locus of Control: Further evidence from Africa

The present study examines the Five-Factor Model (FFM) of personality and locus of control in French-speaking samples in Burkina Faso (N = 470) and Switzerland (Ns = 1,090, 361), using the Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R) and Levenson's Internality, Powerful others, and Chance (IPC) scales. Alpha reliabilities were consistently lower in Burkina Faso, but the factor structure of the NEO-PI-R was replicated in both cultures. The intended three-factor structure of the IPC could not be replicated, although a two-factor solution was replicable across the two samples. Although scalar equivalence has not been demonstrated, mean level comparisons showed the hypothesized effects for most of the five factors and locus of control; Burkinabè scored higher in Neuroticism than anticipated. Findings from this African sample generally replicate earlier results from Asian and Western cultures, and are consistent with a biologically-based theory of personality.

The Relevance of the Principal-Agent Model for the Analysis of Public Policies : Do the Objectives Conflict ?

This paper aims to provide empirical support for the use of the principal-agent framework in the analysis of public sector and public policies. After reviewing the different conditions to be met for a relevant analysis of the relationship between population and government using the principal-agent theory, our paper focuses on the assumption of conflicting goals between the principal and the agent. A principal-agent analysis assumes in effect that inefficiencies may arise because principal and agent pursue different goals. Using data collected during an amalgamation project of two Swiss municipalities, we show the existence of a gap between the goals of the population and those of the government. Consequently, inefficiencies as predicted by the principal-agent model may arise during the implementation of a public policy, i.e. an amalgamation project. In a context of direct democracy where policies are regularly subjected to referendum, the conflict of objectives may even lead to a total failure of the policy at the polls.

War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

Cell size distribution in a random tessellation of space governed by the Kolmogorov-Johnson-Mehl-Avrami model: Grain size distribution in crystallization

The space subdivision in cells resulting from a process of random nucleation and growth is a subject of interest in many scientific fields. In this paper, we deduce the expected value and variance of these distributions while assuming that the space subdivision process is in accordance with the premises of the Kolmogorov-Johnson-Mehl-Avrami model. We have not imposed restrictions on the time dependency of nucleation and growth rates. We have also developed an approximate analytical cell size probability density function. Finally, we have applied our approach to the distributions resulting from solid phase crystallization under isochronal heating conditions

Proposta d'un model predictiu del risc d'ingrés hospitalari amb l'ús d'algoritmes bayesians

Model predictiu basat en xarxes bayesianes que permet identificar els pacients amb major risc d'ingrés a un hospital segons una sèrie d'atributs de dades demogràfiques i clíniques.

Time-Delayed Theory of the Neolithic Transition in Europe

The classical wave-of-advance model of the neolithic transition (i.e., the shift from hunter-gatherer to agricultural economies) is based on Fisher's reaction-diffusion equation. Here we present an extension of Einstein's approach to Fickian diffusion, incorporating reaction terms. On this basis we show that second-order terms in the reaction-diffusion equation, which have been neglected up to now, are not in fact negligible but can lead to important corrections. The resulting time-delayed model agrees quite well with observations

Exploring chromium (VI) dioxodihalides chemistry: is density functional theory the most suitable tool?

A comparative systematic study of the CrO2F2 compound has been performed using different conventional ab initio methodologies and density functional procedures. Two points have been analyzed: first, the accuracy of results yielded by each method under study, and second, the computational cost required to reach such results. Weighing up both aspects, density functional theory has been found to be more appropriate than the Hartree-Fock (HF) and the analyzed post-HF methods. Hence, the structural characterization and spectroscopic elucidation of the full CrO2X2 series (X=F,Cl,Br,I) has been done at this level of theory. Emphasis has been given to the unknown CrO2I2 species, and specially to the UV/visible spectra of all four compounds. Furthermore, a topological analysis in terms of charge density distributions has revealed why the valence shell electron pair repulsion model fails in predicting the molecular shape of such CrO2X2 complexes

Rational Partisan Theory with fiscal policy and an independent central bank

The empirical evidence testing the validity of the rational partisan theory (RPT) has been mixed. In this article, we argue that the inclusion of other macroeconomic policies and the presence of an independent central bank can partly contribute to explain this inconclusiveness. This article expands Alesina s (1987) RPT model to include an extra policy and an independent central bank. With these extensions, the implications of RPT are altered signi ficantly. In particular, when the central bank is more concerned about output than public spending (an assumption made by many papers in this literature), then the direct relationship between in flation and output derived in Alesina (1987) never holds. Keywords: central bank, conservativeness, political uncertainty. JEL Classi fication: E58, E63.

Size-dependent predation by Dugesia lugubris (Turbellaria) on Physa acuta (Gastropoda): experiments and model

1. We investigated experimentally predation by the flatworm Dugesia lugubris on the snail Physa acuta in relation to predator body length and to prey morphology [shell length (SL) and aperture width (AW)]. 2. SL and AW correlate strongly in the field, but display significant and independent variance among populations. In the laboratory, predation by Dugesia resulted in large and significant selection differentials on both SL and AW. Analysis of partial effects suggests that selection on AW was indirect, and mediated through its strong correlation with SL. 3. The probability P(ij) for a snail of size category i (SL) to be preyed upon by a flatworm of size category j was fitted with a Poisson-probability distribution, the mean of which increased linearly with predator size (i). Despite the low number of parameters, the fit was excellent (r2 = 0.96). We offer brief biological interpretations of this relationship with reference to optimal foraging theory. 4. The largest size class of Dugesia (>2 cm) did not prey on snails larger than 7 mm shell length. This size threshold might offer Physa a refuge against flatworm predation and thereby allow coexistence in the field. 5. Our results are further discussed with respect to previous field and laboratory observations on P acuta life-history patterns, in particular its phenotypic variance in adult body size.

Randomized observation periods for the compound Poisson risk model: Dividends

In the framework of the classical compound Poisson process in collective risk theory, we study a modification of the horizontal dividend barrier strategy by introducing random observation times at which dividends can be paid and ruin can be observed. This model contains both the continuous-time and the discrete-time risk model as a limit and represents a certain type of bridge between them which still enables the explicit calculation of moments of total discounted dividend payments until ruin. Numerical illustrations for several sets of parameters are given and the effect of random observation times on the performance of the dividend strategy is studied.

Measurement with Some Theory: a New Approach to Evaluate Business Cycle Models

We propose a method to evaluate cyclical models which does not require knowledge of the DGP and the exact empirical specification of the aggregate decision rules. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use some to identify structural shocks and others to evaluate the model or contrast sub-models. The approach has good size and excellent power properties, even in small samples. We show how to examine the validity of a class of models, sort out the relevance of certain frictions, evaluate the importance of an added feature, and indirectly estimate structural parameters.

A developmental in vivo 1H NMR study in mice with genetic redox dysregulation: an animal model with relevance to schizophrenia

Glutathione (GSH), a major redox regulator and anti-oxidant, is decreased in cerebrospinal fluid and prefrontal cortex of schizophrenia patients. The gene of the key GSH-synthesizing enzyme, glutamate-cysteine ligase, modifier (GCLM) subunit, is associated with schizophrenia, suggesting that the deficit in the GSH system is of genetic origin. Using the GCLM knock-out (KO) mouse model with 60% decreased brain GSH levels, we have shown that redox dysregulation results in abnormal brain morphology and function. Current theory holds that schizophrenia is a developmental disease involving progressive anatomical and functional brain pathology. Here, we used GCLM KO mice to investigate the impact of a genetically dysregulated redox system on the neurochemical profile of the developing brain. The anterior and posterior cortical neurochemical profile of male and female GCLM KO, heterozygous and wildtype mice was determined by localised in vivo 1H NMR spectroscopy at 14.1 T (Varian/Magnex spectrometer) on post-natal days 10, 20, 30, 60 and 90. We show, for the first time, (1) that high quality 1H NMR spectra can be acquired from early developing mouse brains and (2) that recurrent anaesthesia by itself when administered at the same developmental days has no adverse effects on brain metabolites nor on adult behaviour. (3) Most importantly, our results reveal genotype and age specific changes for a number of metabolites revealing insight into normal brain development and about the impact of genetic GSH dysregulation.