The rise in global demand for ethanol and poverty in Brazil

Includes bibliography

Demographic models for projections of social sector demand

Includes bibliography

Changes in the distribution of income and the New Economic Model in Colombia

Includes bibliography

The economics of demand-led growth: theory and evidence for Brazil

Includes bibliography

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Recovery of employment: towards a sustainable model

The adverse effects on Latin America and the Caribbean of the global economic and financial crisis, the worst since the 1930s, have been considerably less than was once feared. Although a run of growth was cut short in 2009 and regional output shrank by 1.9%, the impact of the crisis was limited by the application of countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies by many of the region’s governments. The recovery in the economies, particularly in South America, has gone hand-in-hand with the rapid resurgence of the emerging economies of Asia, with all the favourable consequences this has had for global trade. A similar pattern may be observed regarding the impact of the crisis on labour markets in Latin America and the Caribbean. Although millions of people lost their jobs or had to trade down to lower-quality work, levels of employment (including formal employment) fell by less than originally foreseen. At the same time, real wages rose slightly in a context of falling inflation. The labour market thus stabilized domestic demand, and this contributed to the recovery that began in many countries in late 2009. Improved international trade and financing conditions, and the pick-up in domestic demand driven by macroeconomic policies, have led different commentators to estimate growth in the region’s economy at some 6% in 2010. As detailed in the first part of this edition of the Bulletin, the upturn has been manifested at the regional level by the creation of formal employment, a rise in the employment rate, a decline in joblessness and a moderate increase in real wages. Specifically, it is estimatedthat the regional unemployment rate will have dropped by 0.6 percentage points, from 8.1% in 2009 to 7.5% in 2010. The performance of different countries and subregions has been very uneven, however. On the one hand, there is Brazil, where high economic growth has been accompanied by vigorous creation of formal jobs and the unemployment rate has dropped to levels not seen in a long time. Other countries in South America have benefited from strong demand for natural resources from the Asian countries. Combined with higher domestic demand, this has raised their economic growth rates and had a positive impact on employment indicators. On the other hand, the recovery is still very weak in certain countries and subregions, particularly in the Caribbean, with employment indicators continuing to worsen.Thus, the recovery in the region’s economy in 2010 may be characterized as dynamic but uneven. Growth estimates for 2011 are less favourable. The risks associated with the imbalances in the world economy and the withdrawal of countercyclical fiscal packages are likely to cause the region to grow more slowly in 2011. Accordingly, a small further reduction of between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points in the unemployment rate is projected for 2011. However, these indicators of recovery do not guarantee growth with decent work in the long term. To bolster the improvement in labour market indicators and generate more productive employment and decent work, the region’s countries need to strengthen their macroeconomic policies, improve regional and global policy coordination, identify and remove bottlenecks in the labour market itself and enhance instruments designed to promote greater equality. Like the rest of the world, the Latin American and Caribbean region is also confronted with the challenge of transforming the way it produces so that its economies can develop along tracks that are sustainable in the long term. Climate change and the consequent challenge of developing and strengthening low-carbon production and consumption patterns will also affect the way people work. A great challenge ahead is to create green jobs that combine decent work with environmentally sustainable production patterns. From this perspective, the second part of this Bulletin discusses the green jobs approach, offering some information on the challenges and opportunities involved in moving towards a sustainable economy in the region and presenting a set of options for addressing environmental issues and the repercussions of climate change in the world of work. Although the debate about the green jobs concept is fairly new in the region, examples already exist and a number of countries have moved ahead with the application of policies and programmes in this area. Costa Rica has formulated a National Climate Change Strategy, for example, whose foremost achievements include professional training in natural-resource management. In Brazil, fuel production from biomass has increased and social housing with solar panelling is being built. A number of other countries in the region are making progress in areas such as ecotourism, sustainable agriculture and infrastructure for climate change adaptation, and in formalizing the work of people who recycle household waste. The shift towards a more environmentally sustainable economy may cause jobs to be destroyed in some economic sectors and created in others. The working world will inevitably undergo major changes. If the issue is approached by way of social dialogue and appropriate public policies, there is a chance to use this shift to create more decent jobs, thereby contributing to growth in the economy, the construction of higher levels of equality and protection for the environment.

A time series sequestration and storage model of atmospheric carbon dioxide

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Organization model for mobile wireless sensor networks inspired in artificial bee colony

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mixed-integer convex model for VAr expansion planning

This paper presents a mixed-integer convex-optimization-based approach for optimum investment reactive power sources in transmission systems. Unlike some convex-optimization techniques for the reactive power planning solution, in the proposed approach the taps settings of under-load tap-changing of transformers are modeled as a mixed-integer linear set equations. Are also considered the continuous and discrete variables for the existing and new capacitive and reactive power sources. The problem is solved for three significant demand scenarios (low demand, average demand and peak demand). Numerical results are presented for the CIGRE-32 electric power system.

Influence of double excitation AC/DC in the reactive power demand of 3-phase transformers

In this work it is discussed the performance of the reactive power demand in three-leg transformer core and three-phase transformer bank, under different conditions of AC/DC double excitation. In order to analyse the influence of double excitation in reactive power theoretically a mathematical model was developed considering the mutual coupling between phases and the magnetic nonlinearity. The validity of the proposed model is verified by means of the experimental and simulated results.

Raloxifene modulates regulators of osteoclastogenesis and angiogenesis in an oestrogen deficiency periapical lesion model

Aim To analyse the local regulatory mechanisms of osteoclastogenesis and angiogenesis during the progression of periapical lesions in female rats with oestrogen deficiency and treatment with raloxifene (RLX). Methodology Female Wistar rats were distributed into groups: SHAM-veh, subjected to sham surgery and treated with a vehicle; OVX-veh, subjected to ovary removal and treated with a vehicle; and OVX-RLX, subjected to ovary removal and treated with RLX. Vehicle or RLX was administered orally for 90 days. During treatment, the dental pulp of mandibular first molars was exposed to the oral environment for induction of periapical lesions, which were analysed after 7 and 30 days. After the experimental periods, blood samples were collected for measurement of oestradiol, calcium, phosphorus and alkaline phosphatase. The rats were euthanized and the mandibles removed and processed for immunohistochemical detection of receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B ligand (RANKL), osteoprotegerin (OPG), hypoxia-inducible factor-1 alpha (HIF-1α) and bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (BALP). Data were compared using Kruskal–Wallis followed by Dunn test (nonparametric values) and anova followed by the Tukey's test (parametric values). Results The plasma concentration of oestradiol showed hypo-oestrogenism in the rats subjected to ovary removal. On day 7, alkaline phosphatase activity, calcium and phosphorus were higher in the OVX-RLX group than in the OVX-veh group (P < 0.001), but immunolabelling for RANKL and HIF-1α was lower in OVX-RLX group (P < 0.001). On day 30, the OVX-veh group had higher immunolabelling for RANKL than the OVX-RLX group (P < 0.05). There were no significant differences in the immunoreactivity of OPG and BALP between any groups at either time-point (P > 0.05). Conclusion RLX therapy reversed the increased levels of the local regulators of both osteoclastogenesis and angiogenesis induced by oestrogen deficiency.

GIS-based analytical tools for transport planning: spatial regression models for transportation demand forecast

Considering the importance of spatial issues in transport planning, the main objective of this study was to analyze the results obtained from different approaches of spatial regression models. In the case of spatial autocorrelation, spatial dependence patterns should be incorporated in the models, since that dependence may affect the predictive power of these models. The results obtained with the spatial regression models were also compared with the results of a multiple linear regression model that is typically used in trips generation estimations. The findings support the hypothesis that the inclusion of spatial effects in regression models is important, since the best results were obtained with alternative models (spatial regression models or the ones with spatial variables included). This was observed in a case study carried out in the city of Porto Alegre, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in the stages of specification and calibration of the models, with two distinct datasets.

Antimicrobial effect of endodontic solutions used as final irrigants on a dentine biofilm model

Aim To evaluate the residual biovolume of live bacterial cells, the mean biofilm thickness and the substratum coverage found in mixed biofilms treated with different endodontic irrigant solutions. Methodology Twenty-five bovine dentine specimens were infected intraorally using a removable orthodontic device. Five samples were used for each irrigant solution: 2% chlorhexidine, 1% sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl), 10% citric acid, 17% EDTA and distilled water. The solutions were used for 5 min. The samples were stained using the Live/Dead technique and evaluated using a confocal microscope. Differences in the amount of total biovolume (mu m3), number of surviving cells (mu m3), mean biofilm thickness (mu m) and substratum coverage (%) of the treated biofilms were determined using nonparametric statistical tests (P < 0.05). Results Similar values of biovolume total, biovolume of live subpopulations and substratum coverage were found in 2% chlorhexidine, 10% citric acid, 17% EDTA and distilled water-treated biofilms (P > 0.05). The lower values of the studied parameters were found in 1% NaOCl-treated dentine (P < 0.05) with the exception of the mean biofilm height criteria that did not reveal significant differences amongst the irrigant solutions (P > 0.05). Conclusions One per cent sodium hypochlorite was the only irrigant that had a significant effect on biofilm viability and architecture.

Reference model for implementing an MRP system in a highly diverse component and seasonal lean production environment

Companies are currently choosing to integrate logics and systems to achieve better solutions. These combinations also include companies striving to join the logic of material requirement planning (MRP) system with the systems of lean production. The purpose of this article was to design an MRP as part of the implementation of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) in a company that produces agricultural implements, which has used the lean production system since 1998. This proposal is based on the innovation theory, theory networks, lean production systems, ERP systems and the hybrid production systems, which use both components and MRP systems, as concepts of lean production systems. The analytical approach of innovation networks enables verification of the links and relationships among the companies and departments of the same corporation. The analysis begins with the MRP implementation project carried out in a Brazilian metallurgical company and follows through the operationalisation of the MRP project, until its production stabilisation. The main point is that the MRP system should help the company's operations with regard to its effective agility to respond in time to demand fluctuations, facilitating the creation process and controlling the branch offices in other countries that use components produced in the matrix, hence ensuring more accurate estimates of stockpiles. Consequently, it presents the enterprise knowledge development organisational modelling methodology in order to represent further models (goals, actors and resources, business rules, business process and concepts) that should be included in this MRP implementation process for the new configuration of the production system.

Antimicrobial activity of triantibiotic paste, 2% chlorhexidine gel, and calcium hydroxide on an intraoral-infected dentin biofilm model

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the antimicrobial activity of calcium hydroxide, 2% chlorhexidine gel, and triantibiotic paste (ie, metronidazole, minocycline, and ciprofloxacin) by using an intraorally infected dentin biofilm model. Methods: Forty bovine dentin specimens were infected intraorally using a removable orthodontic device in order to induce the biofilm colonization of the dentin. Then, the samples were treated with the medications for 7 days. Saline solution was used as the control. Two evaluations were performed: immediately after the elimination of the medication and after incubation in brain-heart infusion medium for 24 hours. The Live/Dead technique (Invitrogen, Eugene, OR) and a confocal microscope were used to obtain the percentage of live cells. Nonparametric statistical tests were performed to show differences in the percentage of live cells among the groups (P < .05). Results: Calcium hydroxide and 2% chlorhexidine gel did not show statistical differences in the immediate evaluation. However, after application of the brain-heart infusion medium for 24 hours, 2% gel chlorhexidine showed a statistically lesser percentage of live cells in comparison with calcium hydroxide. The triantibiotic paste significantly showed a lower percentage of live cells in comparison with the 2% chlorhexidine gel and calcium hydroxide groups in the immediate and secondary (after 24 hours) evaluations. Conclusions: The triantibiotic paste was most effective at killing the bacteria in the biofilms on the intraorally infected dentin model in comparison with 2% chlorhexidine gel and calcium hydroxide

Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model

[EN] Background: Spain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities. Methods: We created a supply and demand/need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic, education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method. Results: In the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth, the deficit of medical specialists will grow from 2% at present (2800 specialists) to 14.3% in 2025 (almost 21 000). The specialties with the greatest medium-term shortages are Anesthesiology, Orthopedic and Traumatic Surgery, Pediatric Surgery, Plastic Aesthetic and Reparatory Surgery, Family and Community Medicine, Pediatrics, Radiology, and Urology. Conclusions: The model suggests the need to increase the number of students admitted to medical school. Training itineraries should be redesigned to facilitate mobility among specialties. In the meantime, the need to make more flexible the supply in the short term is being filled by the immigration of physicians from new members of the European Union and from Latin America.