Three essays on liquidity risk

Preface In this thesis we study several questions related to transaction data measured at an individual level. The questions are addressed in three essays that will constitute this thesis. In the first essay we use tick-by-tick data to estimate non-parametrically the jump process of 37 big stocks traded on the Paris Stock Exchange, and of the CAC 40 index. We separate the total daily returns in three components (trading continuous, trading jump, and overnight), and we characterize each one of them. We estimate at the individual and index levels the contribution of each return component to the total daily variability. For the index, the contribution of jumps is smaller and it is compensated by the larger contribution of overnight returns. We test formally that individual stocks jump more frequently than the index, and that they do not respond independently to the arrive of news. Finally, we find that daily jumps are larger when their arrival rates are larger. At the contemporaneous level there is a strong negative correlation between the jump frequency and the trading activity measures. The second essay study the general properties of the trade- and volume-duration processes for two stocks traded on the Paris Stock Exchange. These two stocks correspond to a very illiquid stock and to a relatively liquid stock. We estimate a class of autoregressive gamma process with conditional distribution from the family of non-central gamma (up to a scale factor). This process was introduced by Gouriéroux and Jasiak and it is known as Autoregressive gamma process. We also evaluate the ability of the process to fit the data. For this purpose we use the Diebold, Gunther and Tay (1998) test; and the capacity of the model to reproduce the moments of the observed data, and the empirical serial correlation and the partial serial correlation functions. We establish that the model describes correctly the trade duration process of illiquid stocks, but have problems to adjust correctly the trade duration process of liquid stocks which present long-memory characteristics. When the model is adjusted to volume duration, it successfully fit the data. In the third essay we study the economic relevance of optimal liquidation strategies by calibrating a recent and realistic microstructure model with data from the Paris Stock Exchange. We distinguish the case of parameters which are constant through the day from time-varying ones. An optimization problem incorporating this realistic microstructure model is presented and solved. Our model endogenizes the number of trades required before the position is liquidated. A comparative static exercise demonstrates the realism of our model. We find that a sell decision taken in the morning will be liquidated by the early afternoon. If price impacts increase over the day, the liquidation will take place more rapidly.

Influence of compliance to respiratory weaning consensus conference criteria on respiratory outcome within 48h after planned extubation

INTRODUCTION. A two-step assessment (readiness to wean (RW) followed by spontaneousbreathing trial (SBT)) of predefined criteria is recommended before planned extubation(PE)1.OBJECTIVES. We aimed to evaluate if compliance to all guideline criteria was associatedwith better respiratory outcome within 48 h after PE.METHODS. The data (extracted from our clinical information system) of 458 consecutivepatients who underwent PE after C48 h of invasive ventilation in our medico-surgical ICUwere analyzed. We evaluated compliance with guidelines [1] regarding respiratory rate, tidalvolume, PaO2, FiO2, PEEP, PaCO2, pH, heart rate, systolic arterial pressure and arrhythmiaduringRWand SBT assessment (RW and SBT within 2 h). A patient was classified as RW+ ifallRWcriteria were fulfilled andRW-if at least 1 criterion was violated. The same approachwas used to define SBT+ and SBT- patients. During the 48 h following PE, we assessed theoccurrence of post-PE respiratory failure (PRF) (defined as the presence of at least 1 consensuscriterion of respiratory failure [1]), reintubation (after NIV failure or because of immediateintubation criteria) and cumulative duration of post-PE ventilation (PPEV = Post-PE invasive+ non-invasive ventilation). ICU mortality was recorded. Comparisons for variousoutcomes were performed by Chi-square and t tests.RESULTS. All consensus criteria were fulfilled in 77.3% of the patients during RW and in68.1% of the patients during SBT.[Compliance to weaning criteria and outcome]N = 458 PRF (%) Reintubation (%) PPEV (min) ICU mortality (%)All patients 53.5 10.0 542 ± 664 6.1RW+ 50.0 9.3 490 ± 626 5.4RW- 65.4* 12.5 718 ± 757** 8.7SBT+ 52.6 8.0 498 ± 594 6.7SBT- 55.5 14.4*** 637 ± 788**** 4.8Occurrence of PRF only was not associated with increased ICU mortality: 4.2 versus 7.8%,p = 0.11. By contrast, ICU mortality was significantly increased in patients requiring reintubation:21.7 versus 4.4%. p\0.001; * p = 0.006 RW+ versus RW-; ** p = 0.003RW+ versus RW-; *** p = 0.035 SBT+ versus SBT-; **** p = 0.030 SBT+ versusSBTCONCLUSIONS.In our ICU, compliance to all criteria of the two-step published approach ofrespiratory weaning was not optimal but reintubation rate was comparable to published data.Compliance with consensus conference guidelines was associated with lower reintubation rateand shorter PPEV but not with ICU mortality. As mortality was increased by reintubation,more sensitive and specific criteria to predict the risk of reintubation are probably needed.REFERENCE. Boles JM, et al. Eur Respir J 2007;29:1033-56.

Integrating species distribution models (SDMs) and phylogeography for two species of Alpine Primula.

The major intention of the present study was to investigate whether an approach combining the use of niche-based palaeodistribution modeling and phylo-geography would support or modify hypotheses about the Quaternary distributional history derived from phylogeographic methods alone. Our study system comprised two closely related species of Alpine Primula. We used species distribution models based on the extant distribution of the species and last glacial maximum (LGM) climate models to predict the distribution of the two species during the LGM. Phylogeographic data were generated using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). In Primula hirsuta, models of past distribution and phylogeographic data are partly congruent and support the hypothesis of widespread nunatak survival in the Central Alps. Species distribution models (SDMs) allowed us to differentiate between alpine regions that harbor potential nunatak areas and regions that have been colonized from other areas. SDMs revealed that diversity is a good indicator for nunataks, while rarity is a good indicator for peripheral relict populations that were not source for the recolonization of the inner Alps. In P. daonensis, palaeo-distribution models and phylogeographic data are incongruent. Besides the uncertainty inherent to this type of modeling approach (e.g., relatively coarse 1-km grain size), disagreement of models and data may partly be caused by shifts of ecological niche in both species. Nevertheless, we demonstrate that the combination of palaeo-distribution modeling with phylogeographical approaches provides a more differentiated picture of the distributional history of species and partly supports (P. hirsuta) and partly modifies (P. daonensis and P. hirsuta) hypotheses of Quaternary distributional history. Some of the refugial area indicated by palaeodistribution models could not have been identified with phylogeographic data.

Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic assessment of valganciclovir in solid organ transplant recipients

RESUME : Valganciclovir (Valcyte®) is an orally administered ester prodrug of the standard anticytomegalovirus (CMV) drug ganciclovir. This drug enabled an important reduction of the burden of CMV morbidity and mortality in solid organ transplant recipients. Prevention of CMV infection and treatment of CMV disease requires drug administration during many weeks. Oral drug administration is therefore convenient. Valganciclovir has been developed to overcome the poor oral availability of ganciclovir, which limits its concentration exposure after oral administration and thus its efficacy. This prodrug crosses efficiently the intestinal barrier, is then hydrolyzed into ganciclovir, providing exposure similar to intravenous ganciclovir. Valganciclovir is now preferred for the prophylaxis and treatment of CMV infection in solid organ transplant recipients. Nevertheless, adequate dosage adjustment is necessary to optimize its use, avoiding either insufficient or exaggerate exposure related to differences in its pharmacokinetic profile between patients. The main goal of this thesis was to better describe the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profile of valganciclovir in solid organ transplant recipients, to assess their reproducibility and their predictability, and thus to evaluate the current recommendations for valganciclovir dosage adjustment and the potential contribution of routine therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) to patients' management. A total of 437 ganciclovir plasma concentration data from 65 transplant patients (41 kidney, 12 lung, 10 heart and 2 liver recipients, 58 under oral valganciclovir prophylaxis, 8 under oral valganciclovir treatment and 2 under intravenous ganciclovir) were measured using a validated chromatographic method (HPLC) developed for this study. The results were analyzed by non-linear mixed effect modeling (NONMEM). A two-compartment model with first-order absorption appropriately described the data. Systemic clearance was markedly influenced by GFR, with further differences between graft types and sex (CL/GFR = 1.7 in kidney, 0.9 in heart and 1.2 in lung and liver recipients) with interpatient variability (CV%) of 26% and interoccasion variability of 12%. Body weight and sex influenced central volume of distribution (V1 = 0.34 l/kg in males and 0.27 l/kg in females) with an interpatient variability of 20%. Residual intrapatient variability was 21 %. No significant drug interaction influenced GCV disposition. VGC prophylactic efficacy and tolerability were good, without detectable dependence on GCV profile. In conclusion, this analysis highlights the importance of thorough adjustment of VGC dosage to renal function and body weight. Considering the good predictability and reproducibility of GCV profile after oral VGC in solid organ transplant recipients, routine TDM does not appear to be clinically indicated. However, GCV plasma measurement may still be helpful in specific clinical situations such as documentation of appropriate exposure in patients with potentially compromised absorption, or lack of response to CMV disease treatment, or under renal replacement therapy. RESUME : Le valganciclovir (Valcyte®) est un promédicament oral du ganciclovir qui est un anti-infectieux de référence contre les infections à cytomegalovirus (CMV). Cet antiviral a permis de réduire les effets délétères de cette infection jusqu'ici responsable d'une importante morbidité et mortalité chez les transplantés d'organe. La prévention et le traitement de l'infection à CMV sont donc nécessaires mais requièrent l'administration d'un agent antiviral sur une longue période. Un médicament administré par voie orale représente donc un avantage évident. Le valganciclovir a été développé dans le but d'améliorer la faible absorption orale du ganciclovir, et donc son efficacité. Cet ester valylique du ganciclovir traverse plus facilement la barrière gastro-intestinale, puis est hydrolysé en ganciclovir dans la circulation sanguine, produisant une exposition comparable à celle d'une perfusion intraveineuse de ganciclovir. De ce fait, le valganciclovir est devenu largement utilisé pour la prophylaxie mais aussi le traitement de l'infection à CMV. Néanmoins une utilisation optimale de ce nouveau médicament nécessite de bonnes connaissances sur son profil pharmacocinétique afin d'établir un schéma de dose adapté pour éviter tant une surexposition qu'une sous-exposition résultant des différences d'élimination entre les patients. Le but de cette thèse a été d'étudier le profil pharmacocinétique et pharmacodynamique du valganciclovir chez les transplantés d'organe ainsi que sa reproductibilité et sa prédictibilité. Il s'agissait d'apprécier de manière critique le schéma actuellement recommandé pour l'adaptation des doses de valganciclovir, mais aussi la contribution éventuelle d'un suivi des concentrations sanguines en routine. Un total de 437 taux sanguins de ganciclovir ont été mesurés, provenant de 65 patients transplantés d'organe (41 rénaux, 12 pulmonaires, 10 cardiaques et 2 hépatiques, 58 sous une prophylaxie orale de valganciclovir, 8 sous un traitement de valganciclovir et 2 sous un traitement intraveineux). Une méthode de chromatographie liquide à haute performance a été développée et validée pour cette étude. Les résultats ont été ensuite analysés par modélisation non linéaire à effets mixtes (NONMEM). Un modèle à deux compartiments avec absorption de premier ordre a permis de décrire les données. La clairance systémique était principalement influencée par le débit de filtration glomérulaire (GFR), avec une différence entre les types de greffe et les sexes (CL/GFR = 1.7 chez les greffés rénaux, 0.9 pour les greffés cardiaques et 1.2 pour le groupe des greffés pulmonaires et hépatiques) avec un variabilité inter-individuelle de 26% (CV%) et une variabilité inter-occasion de 12%. Le poids corporel ainsi que le sexe avaient une influence sur le volume central de distribution (V1 = 0.34 l/kg chez les hommes et 0.27 l/kg chez les femmes) avec une variabilité inter-individuelle de 20%. La variabilité intra-individuelle résiduelle était de 21 %. Aucune interaction médicamenteuse n'a montré d'influence sur le profil du ganciclovir. La prophylaxie avec le valganciclovir s'est révélée efficace et bien tolérée. En conclusion, cette analyse souligne l'importance d'une adaptation de la dose du valganciclovir à la fonction rénale et au poids du patient. Au vu de la bonne reproductibilité et prédictibilité du profil pharmacocinétique du ganciclovir chez les patients transplantés recevant du valganciclovir, un suivi des concentrations sanguines en routine ne semble pas cliniquement indiqué. Néanmoins, la mesure des taux plasmatiques de ganciclovir peut être utile dans certaines situations particulières, comme la vérification d'une exposition appropriée chez des patients susceptibles d'absorption insuffisante, ou ne répondant pas au traitement d'une infection à CMV ou encore sous épuration extra-rénale. RESUME LARGE PUBLIC : Le valganciclovir est un précurseur capable de libérer du ganciclovir, récemment développé pour améliorer la faible absorption orale de ce dernier. Une fois le valganciclovir absorbé, le ganciclovir libéré dans la circulation sanguine devient efficace contre les infections à cytomégalovirus. Ce virus largement répandu est responsable de maladies insidieuses et parfois graves chez les personnes présentant une baisse des défenses immunitaires, comme les greffés d'organe recevant un traitement anti-rejet. Le ganciclovir est administré pendant plusieurs mois consécutifs soit pour prévenir une infection après la transplantation, soit pour traiter une infection déclarée. La facilité d'administration du valganciclovir par voie orale représente un avantage sur une administration du ganciclovir par perfusion, qui nécessite une hospitalisation. Toutefois, la voie orale peut être une source supplémentaire de variabilité chez les patients, avec un impact potentiel sur l'efficacité ou la toxicité du médicament. Le but de cette étude a été - de décrire le devenir de ce médicament dans le corps humain (dont l'étude relève de la discipline de la pharmacocinétique) - de définir les facteurs cliniques pouvant expliquer les différences de concentration sanguine observées entre les patients sous une posologie donnée - d'explorer les relations entre les concentrations du médicament dans le sang et son efficacité ou la survenue d'effets indésirables (dont l'étude relève de la discipline de la pharmacodynamie). Cette étude a nécessité le développement et la validation, d'une méthode d'analyse pour mesurer la concentration sanguine du ganciclovir, puis son application à 437 échantillons provenant de 65 patients transplantés d'organe solide (41 rénaux, 12 pulmonaires, 10 cardiaques et 2 hépatiques) recevant du valganciclovir. Les résultats des mesures effectuées ont été analysés à l'aide d'un outil mathématique afin d'élaborer un modèle du devenir du médicament dans le sang chez chaque patient et à chaque occasion. Cette étude a permis d'évaluer chez des patients recevant le valganciclovir, la vitesse à laquelle l'organisme absorbe, distribue, puis élimine le médicament. La vitesse d'élimination dépendait étroitement de la fonction rénale, du type de greffe et du sexe alors que la distribution dépendait du poids et du sexe du patient. La variabilité non expliquée par ces facteurs cliniques était modérée et vraisemblablement sans conséquence clinique évidente soit sur l'efficacité ou la tolérance, qui se révèlent très satisfaisantes chez les patients de l'étude. Les observations n'ont pas révélé de relation entre les concentrations de médicament et l'efficacité thérapeutique ou la survenue d'effets indésirables, confirmant que les doses relativement faibles utilisées dans notre collectif de patients suffisaient à produire une exposition reproductible à des concentrations adéquates. En conclusion, le profil (et par conséquent l'absorption) du valganciclovir chez les patients transplantés semble bien prédictible après une adaptation de la dose à la fonction rénale et au poids du patient. Un contrôle systématique des concentrations sanguines n'est probablement pas indiqué en routine, mais cette mesure peut présenter un intérêt dans certaines conditions particulières.

Barriers, benefits and preferences for exercise in RA patients: A cross sectional study.

Background/Purpose: Physical exercise is safe and effective as an adjunctive nonpharmacological treatment modality in the management of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). It is well established that patients with RA are less active compared to healthy controls. The transtheoretical model of health promotion, based on five stages of change, provides a useful framework to better understand patients' motivation towards regular exercise. The purpose of this study was to determine the distribution of exercise stages of change in a RA cohort, and to examine barriers, benefits and preferences for exercise. Methods: One hundred and twenty consecutive patients with RA followed at a hospital-based rheumatology practice were invited to participate in the study. Those who accepted to participate filled in a questionnaire to determine their exercise stage of change, their perceived benefits and barriers to exercise, and their preferences for various features of exercise. Disease activity was measured using the disease activity score (DAS28). Other variables included the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ), the short version of the Arthritis Impact Measurement Scales 2 (AIMS2-SF), pain and fatigue visual analogue scales (VAS), the number of comorbidities and demographic characteristics. Characteristics of patients in the maintenance and precontemplation stages of change were compared using two-sample t tests, Wilcoxon rank-sum tests and Chi-square tests. Results: Eighty nine (74%) patients were finally included in the analyses. Mean age was 58.4 (SD 11.7) years, mean RA duration was 10.1 (9.8) years and mean DAS28 was 2.8 (1.2). The distribution of exercise stages of change was as follows: precontemplation (n_30, 34%), contemplation (n_11, 13%), preparation (n_5, 6%), action (n_2, 2%), and maintenance (n_39, 45%). Compared to patients in the maintenance stage of change, precontemplators were less often at work (P_0.05), exhibited a higher body mass index (P_0.01), poorer HAQ (P_0.01), higher pain VAS (P_0.05), poorer scores of physical (P_0.001), symptom (P_0.01), affect (P_0.01) and role (P_0.01) dimensions of the AIMS2-SF, and reported less exercise benefits (P_0.05) and more barriers to exercise (p_0.01). Most participants preferred exercising alone (40%), at home (29%), at a moderate intensity (64%), with advice provided by a rheumatologist (34%) or a specialist in exercise and RA (34%). Walking was by far the preferred type of exercise, in both the summer (86%) and the winter (51%). Conclusion: This study provides new insight into how RA interferes with exercise participation. Our cohort of patients with RA was essentially distributed across the precontemplation and maintenance exercise stages of change. These subgroups of patients exhibit psychological and functional differences that make their needs in terms of exercise counseling different. Walking appears to be a simple but promising way of promoting physical activity among RA patients.

Stratification of the severity of critically ill patients with classification trees

Background: Development of three classification trees (CT) based on the CART (Classification and Regression Trees), CHAID (Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection) and C4.5 methodologies for the calculation of probability of hospital mortality; the comparison of the results with the APACHE II, SAPS II and MPM II-24 scores, and with a model based on multiple logistic regression (LR). Methods: Retrospective study of 2864 patients. Random partition (70:30) into a Development Set (DS) n = 1808 and Validation Set (VS) n = 808. Their properties of discrimination are compared with the ROC curve (AUC CI 95%), Percent of correct classification (PCC CI 95%); and the calibration with the Calibration Curve and the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR CI 95%). Results: CTs are produced with a different selection of variables and decision rules: CART (5 variables and 8 decision rules), CHAID (7 variables and 15 rules) and C4.5 (6 variables and 10 rules). The common variables were: inotropic therapy, Glasgow, age, (A-a)O2 gradient and antecedent of chronic illness. In VS: all the models achieved acceptable discrimination with AUC above 0.7. CT: CART (0.75(0.71-0.81)), CHAID (0.76(0.72-0.79)) and C4.5 (0.76(0.73-0.80)). PCC: CART (72(69- 75)), CHAID (72(69-75)) and C4.5 (76(73-79)). Calibration (SMR) better in the CT: CART (1.04(0.95-1.31)), CHAID (1.06(0.97-1.15) and C4.5 (1.08(0.98-1.16)). Conclusion: With different methodologies of CTs, trees are generated with different selection of variables and decision rules. The CTs are easy to interpret, and they stratify the risk of hospital mortality. The CTs should be taken into account for the classification of the prognosis of critically ill patients.

Gamma Knife Surgery versus Linac for Brain Metastasis: Which Technique for Which Patient? Analysis of an Historical Cohort of 63 Consecutive Patients Harboring 130 Lesions

Objectives: We present the retrospective analysis of a single-institution experience for radiosurgery (RS) in brain metastasis (BM) with Gamma Knife (GK) and Linac. Methods: From July 2010 to July 2012, 28 patients (with 83 lesions) had RS with GK and 35 patients (with 47 lesions) with Linac. The primary outcome was the local progression-free survival (LPFS). The secondary outcome was the overall survival (OS). Apart a standard statistical analysis, we included a Cox regression model with shared frailty, to modulate the within-patient correlation (preliminary evaluation showed a significant frailty effect, meaning that the correlation within patient could be ignored). Results: The mean follow-up period was 11.7 months (median 7.9, 1.7-22.7) for GK and 18.1 (median 17, 7.5-28.7) for Linac. The median number of lesions per patient was 2.5 (1-9) in GK compared with 1 (1-3) in Linac. There were more radioresistant lesions (melanoma) and more lesions located in functional areas for the GK group. The median dose was 24 Gy (GK) compared with 20 Gy (Linac). The LPFS actuarial rate was as follows: for GK at 3, 6, 9, 12, and 17 months: 96.96, 96.96, 96.96, 88.1, and 81.5%, and remained stable till 32 months; for Linac at 3, 6, 12, 17, 24, and 33 months, it was 91.5, 91.5, 91.5, 79.9, 55.5, and 17.1%, respectively (p = 0.03, chi-square test). After the Cox regression analysis with shared frailty, the p-value was not statistically significant between groups. The median overall survival was 9.7 months for GK and 23.6 months for Linac group. Uni- and multivariate analysis showed a lower GPA score and noncontrolled systemic status were associated with lower OS. Cox regression analysis adjusting for these two parameters showed comparable OS rate. Conclusions: In this comparative report between GK and Linac, preliminary analysis showed that more difficult cases are treated by GK, with patients harboring more lesions, radioresistant tumors, and highly functional located. The groups look, in this sense, very heterogeneous at baseline. After a Cox frailty model, the LPFS rates seemed very similar (p < 0.05). The OS was similar, after adjusting for systemic status and GPA score (p < 0.05). The technical reasons for choosing GK instead of Linac were the anatomical location related to highly functional areas, histology, technical limitations of Linac movements, especially lower posterior fossa locations, or closeness of multiple lesions to highly functional areas optimal dosimetry with Linac

Nonlinear principal and canonical directions from continuous extensions of multidimensional scaling

A continuous random variable is expanded as a sum of a sequence of uncorrelated random variables. These variables are principal dimensions in continuous scaling on a distance function, as an extension of classic scaling on a distance matrix. For a particular distance, these dimensions are principal components. Then some properties are studied and an inequality is obtained. Diagonal expansions are considered from the same continuous scaling point of view, by means of the chi-square distance. The geometric dimension of a bivariate distribution is defined and illustrated with copulas. It is shown that the dimension can have the power of continuum.

Relationship between anxiety and overactive bladder syndrome in older women

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between overactive bladder syndrome and anxiety in older women.METHODS: Of the 198 older women who were invited, 29 were excluded and 166 were then divided into two groups according to the Advanced Questionnaire of Overactive Bladder (OAB-V8): one group with overactive bladder symptoms (OAB-V8≥8) and the other without the symptoms of an overactive bladder (OAB-V8<8). The purpose was to conduct a frequency analysis and to investigate the relation of the social demographic data and anxiety in the two groups. The Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI) was used to evaluate the level of anxiety. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to determine the distribution of the data. The differences between the two groups for the continuous variables were analyzed by the Mann-Whitney U test, the differences for the categorical variables were analyzed by the Chi-Square test and the association between the continuous variables was analyzed by the Spearman Correlation test. The tests were two-tailed with a confidence level of 5%.RESULTS: Overall, the frequency of an overactive bladder was present in 117 (70.5%) of the participants. The body mass index (BMI) of the group with overactive bladder symptoms was significantly higher than the BMI of those without these symptoms (p=0.001). A higher prevalence of mild, moderate and severe anxiety was observed among older women with overactive bladder symptoms. In addition, the overactive bladder symptoms group presented a positive low correlation with anxiety symptoms (r=0.345) and with BMI (r=0.281). There was a small correlation between BMI and anxiety symptoms (r=0.164).CONCLUSIONS: Overactive bladder syndrome was prevalent among older women and the existence of these symptoms was linked to the presence of mild, moderate and/or severe anxiety symptoms.

Stored blood - an effective immunosuppressive method for transplantation of kidneys from unrelated donors: An 11-year follow-up

Thirty-seven patients were submitted to kidney transplantation after transfusion at 2-week intervals with 4-week stored blood from their potential donors. All patients and donors were typed for HLA-A-B and DR antigens. The patients were also tested for cytotoxic antibodies against donor antigens before each transfusion. The percentage of panel reactive antibodies (PRA) was determined against a selected panel of 30 cell donors before and after the transfusions. The patients were immunosuppressed with azathioprine and prednisone. Rejection crises were treated with methylprednisolone. The control group consisted of 23 patients who received grafts from an unrelated donor but who did not receive donor-specific pretransplant blood transfusion. The incidence and reversibility of rejection episodes, allograft loss caused by rejection, and patient and graft survival rates were determined for both groups. Non-parametric methods (chi-square and Fisher tests) were used for statistical analysis, with the level of significance set at P<0.05. The incidence and reversibility of rejection crises during the first 60 post-transplant days did not differ significantly between groups. The actuarial graft and patient survival rates at five years were 56% and 77%, respectively, for the treated group and 39.8% and 57.5% for the control group. Graft loss due to rejection was significantly higher in the untreated group (P = 0.0026) which also required more intense immunosuppression (P = 0.0001). We conclude that tranfusions using stored blood have the immunosuppressive effect of fresh blood transfusions without the risk of provoking a widespread formation of antibodies. In addition, this method permits a reduction of the immunosuppressive drugs during the process without impairing the adequate functioning of the renal graft

Health in early adulthood: the contribution of the 1978/79 Ribeirão Preto birth cohort

The increase in non-communicable chronic diseases of adults is due to demographic changes and changes in the risk factors related to physical activity, smoking habits and nutrition. We describe the methodology for the evaluation of persons at 23/25 years of age of a cohort of individuals born in Ribeirão Preto in 1978/79. We present their socioeconomic characteristics and the profile of some risk factors for chronic diseases. A total of 2063 participants were evaluated by means of blood collection, standardized questionnaires, anthropometric and blood pressure measurements, and methacholine bronchoprovocation tests. The sexes were compared by the chi-square test, with alpha = 0.05. Obesity was similar among men and women (12.8 and 11.1%); overweight was almost double in men (30.3 vs 17.7%). Weight deficit was higher among women than among men (8.6 and 2.6%). Women were more sedentary and consumed less alcohol and tobacco. Dietary fat consumption was similar between sexes, with 63% consuming large amounts (30 to 39.9 g/day). Metabolic syndrome was twice more frequent among men than women (10.7 vs 4.8%), hypertension was six times more frequent (40.9 vs 6.4%); altered triglyceride (16.1 vs 9.8%) and LDL proportions (5.4 vs 2.7%) were also higher in men, while women had a higher percentage of low HDL (44.7 vs 39.5%). Asthma and bronchial hyper-responsiveness were 1.7 and 1.5 times more frequent, respectively, among women. The high prevalence of some risk factors for chronic diseases among young adults supports the need for investments in their prevention.

Clinical classification of tetanus patients

The authors propose a clinical classification to monitor the evolution of tetanus patients, ranging from grade I to IV according to severity. It was applied on admission and repeated on alternate days up to the 10th day to patients aged > or = 12 years admitted to the State University Hospital, Recife, Brazil. Patients were also classified upon admission according to three prognostic indicators to determine if the proposed classification is in agreement with the traditionally used indicators. Upon admission, the distribution of the 64 patients among the different levels of the proposed classification was similar for the groups of better and worse prognosis according to the three indicators (P > 0.05), most of the patients belonging to grades I and II of the proposed classification. In the later reclassifications, severe forms of tetanus (grades III and IV) were more frequent in the categories of worse prognosis and these differences were statistically significant. There was a reduction in the proportion of mild forms (grades I and II) of tetanus with time for the categories of worse prognostic indicators (chi-square for trend: P = 0.00006, 0.03, and 0.00000) whereas no such trend was observed for the categories of better prognosis (grades I and II). This serially used classification reflected the prognosis of the traditional indicators and permitted the comparison of the dynamics of the disease in different groups. Thus, it becomes a useful tool for monitoring patients by determining clinical category changes with time, and for assessing responses to different therapeutic measures.

Association between the -174 G/C promoter polymorphism of the interleukin-6 gene and cardiovascular disease risk factors in Brazilian older women

In worldwide studies, interleukin-6 (IL-6) is implicated in age-related disturbances. The aim of the present report was to determine the possible association of IL-6 -174 C/G promoter polymorphism with the cytokine profile as well as with the presence of selected cardiovascular risk features. This was a cross-sectional study on Brazilian women aged 60 years or older. A sample of 193 subjects was investigated for impaired glucose regulation, diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia. Genotyping was done by direct sequencing of PCR products. IL-6 and C-reactive protein were quantified by high-sensitivity assays. General linear regression models or the Student t-test were used to compare continuous variables among genotypes, followed by adjustments for confounding variables. The chi-square test was used to compare categorical variables. The genotypes were consistent with Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium proportions. In a recessive model, mean waist-to-hip ratio, serum glycated hemoglobin and serum glucose were markedly lower in C homozygotes (P = 0.001, 0.028, and 0.047, respectively). In a dominant hypothesis, G homozygotes displayed a trend towards higher levels of circulating IL-6 (P = 0.092). Non-parametric analysis revealed that impaired fasting glucose and hypertension were findings approximately 2-fold more frequent among G homozygous subjects (P = 0.042 and 0.043, respectively). Taken together, our results show that the IL-6 -174 G-allele is implicated in a greater cardiovascular risk. To our knowledge, this is the first investigation of IL-6 promoter variants and age-related disturbances in the Brazilian elderly population.

IGF2, LEPR, POMC, PPARG, and PPARGC1 gene variants are associated with obesity-related risk phenotypes in Brazilian children and adolescents

Association studies of genetic variants and obesity and/or obesity-related risk factors have yielded contradictory results. The aim of the present study was to determine the possible association of five single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located in the IGF2, LEPR, POMC, PPARG, and PPARGC1genes with obesity or obesity-related risk phenotypes. This case-control study assessed overweight (n=192) and normal-weight (n=211) children and adolescents. The SNPs were analyzed using minisequencing assays, and variables and genotype distributions between the groups were compared using one-way analysis of variance and Pearson's chi-square or Fisher's exact tests. Logistic regression analysis adjusted for age and gender was used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) for selected phenotype risks in each group. No difference in SNP distribution was observed between groups. In children, POMC rs28932472(C) was associated with lower diastolic blood pressure (P=0.001), higher low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (P=0.014), and higher risk in overweight children of altered total cholesterol (OR=7.35, P=0.006). In adolescents, IGF2 rs680(A) was associated with higher glucose (P=0.012) and higher risk in overweight adolescents for altered insulin (OR=10.08, P=0.005) and homeostasis model of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) (OR=6.34, P=0.010). PPARGrs1801282(G) conferred a higher risk of altered insulin (OR=12.31, P=0.003), and HOMA-IR (OR=7.47, P=0.005) in overweight adolescents. PARGC1 rs8192678(A) was associated with higher triacylglycerols (P=0.005), and LEPR rs1137101(A) was marginally associated with higher LDL cholesterol (P=0.017). LEPR rs1137101(A) conferred higher risk for altered insulin, and HOMA-IR in overweight adolescents. The associations observed in this population suggested increased risk for cardiovascular diseases and/or type 2 diabetes later in life for individuals carrying these alleles.

Cytotoxic and genotoxic potential of liquid synthetic food flavorings evaluated alone and in combination

This study aimed to evaluate the cytotoxic and genotoxic potential of food flavorings (Strawberry, Condensed Milk and Chocolate) on Allium cepa meristematic root cells, with exposure times of 24 and 48 hours. Cytotoxic and mutagenic potential were evaluated separately at doses of 0.2, 0.4 and 0.6 ml and in combination, in which for each dose, the same dose of one other flavoring was combined. The results were analyzed by the Chi-square test (p <0.05). The Strawberry flavor in both exposure times and the three studied doses, the Condensed Milk at 0.6 ml in the 48 hour exposure time, the Chocolate flavor at 0.4 ml, exposure time of 48 hours, and at 0.6 ml, in both exposure times and all treatments with combined doses, significantly reduced the cell division rate, proving to be cytotoxic. No treatment resulted in a significant number of cellular aberrations in A. cepa cells, therefore, the flavorings, under the conditions studied, were non- mutagenic.