An ice-core based history of Siberian forest fires since AD 1250

Forest fires play a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus, can affect regional and global climate. Although fires in extended areas of Russian boreal forests have a considerable influence on atmospheric greenhouse gas and soot concentrations, estimates of their impact on climate are hampered by a lack of data on the history of forest fires. Especially regions with strong continental climate are of high importance due to an intensified development of wildfires. In this study we reconstruct the fire history of Southern Siberia during the past 750 years using ice-core based nitrate, potassium, and charcoal concentration records from Belukha glacier in the continental Siberian Altai. A period of exceptionally high forest-fire activity was observed between AD 1600 and 1680, following an extremely dry period AD 1540-1600. Ice-core pollen data suggest distinct forest diebacks and the expansion of steppe in response to dry climatic conditions. Coherence with a paleoenvironmental record from the 200 km distant Siberian lake Teletskoye shows that the vegetational shift AD 1540-1680, the increase in fire activity AD 1600-1680, and the subsequent recovery of forests AD 1700 were of regional significance. Dead biomass accumulation in response to drought and high temperatures around AD 1600 probably triggered maximum forest-fire activity AD 1600-1680. The extreme dry period in the 16th century was also observed at other sites in Central Asia and is possibly associated with a persistent positive mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No significant increase in biomass burning occurred in the Altai region during the last 300 years, despite strongly increasing temperatures and human activities. Our results imply that precipitation changes controlled fire-regime and vegetation shifts in the Altai region during the past 750 years. We conclude that high sensitivity of ecosystems to occasional decadal-scale drought events may trigger unprecedented environmental reorganizations under global-warming conditions.

Delivery mode and efficacy of BMP-2 in association with implants

Bone healing may be improved in implant patients by the administration of osteogenic agents, such as bone morphogenetic protein 2 (BMP-2). But the efficacy of BMP-2 depends upon its mode of application. We hypothesized that BMP-2 is capable of a higher osteogenic efficacy when delivered physiologically, viz., when incorporated into a calcium-phosphate carrier that mimics mineralized bone matrix, than when administered via simple pharmacological modes, such as by adsorption onto a carrier surface. Using an ectopic rat model, we compared the osteoinductive efficacies of calcium-phosphate implant-coatings bearing either incorporated, adsorbed, or incorporated and adsorbed BMP-2. When adsorbed directly onto the naked implant surface, BMP-2 was not osteogenic. When adsorbed onto a calcium-phosphate coating, it was osteoinductive, but not highly efficacious. When BMP-2 was incorporated into calcium-phosphate coatings, it was a potent bone-inducer, whose efficacy was compromised, not potentiated, by the additional deposition of an adsorbed pool.

Transfer of spatial knowledge from a virtual environment to reality: Impact of route complexity and subject’s strategy on the exploration mode

The use of virtual reality as tool in the area of spatial cognition raises the question of the quality of learning transfer from a virtual to a real environment. It is first necessary to determine with healthy subjects, the cognitive aids that improve the quality of transfer and the conditions required, especially since virtual reality can be used as effective tool in cognitive rehabilitation. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of the exploration mode of virtual environment (Passive vs. Active) according to Route complexity (Simple vs. Complex) on the quality of spatial knowledge transfer in three spatial tasks. Ninety subjects (45 men and 45 women) participated. Spatial learning was evaluated by Wayfinding, sketch-mapping and picture classification tasks in the context of the Bordeaux district. In the Wayfinding task, results indicated that active learning in a Virtual Environment (VE) increased the performances compared to the passive learning condition, irrespective of the route complexity factor. In the Sketch-mapping task, active learning in a VE helped the subjects to transfer their spatial knowledge from the VE to reality, but only when the route was complex. In the Picture classification task, active learning in a VE when the route was complex did not help the subjects to transfer their spatial knowledge. These results are explained in terms of knowledge levels and frame/strategy of reference [SW75, PL81, TH82].

Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users’ knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio-ecological systems and to foster adaptive dryland management.

High-resolution marine record of sediment core MD99-2343 in the Balearic Sea

The IMAGES core MD99-2343, recovered from a sediment drift north of the island of Minorca, in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, holds a high-resolution sequence that is perfectly suited to study the oscillations of the overturning system of the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW). Detailed analysis of grain-size and bulk geochemical composition reveals the sensitivity of this region to climate changes at both orbital and centennial-millennial temporal scales during the last 50 kyr. The dominant orbital pattern in the K/Al record indicates that sediment supply to the basin was controlled by the insolation evolution at 40°N, which forced changes in the fluvial regime, with more efficient sediment transport during insolation maxima. This orbital control also modulated the long-term pattern of the WMDW intensity as illustrated by the silt/clay ratio. However, deep convection was particularly sensitive to climatic changes at shorter time-scales, i.e. to centennial-millennial glacial and Holocene oscillations that are well documented by all the paleocurrent intensity proxies (Si/Al, Ti/Al and silt/clay ratios). Benthic isotopic records (d13C and d18O) show a Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) pattern of variability of WMDW properties, which can be associated with changing intensities of the deep currents system. The most prominent reduction on the WMDW overturning was caused by the post-glacial sea level rise. Three main scenarios of WMDW overturning are revealed: a strong mode during D-O Stadials, a weak mode during D-O Interstadials and an intermediate mode during cooling transitions. In addition, D-O Stadials associated with Heinrich events (HEs) have a very distinct signature as the strong mode of circulation, typical for the other D-O Stadials, was never reached during HE due to the surface freshening induced by the inflowing polar waters. Consequently, the WMDW overturning system oscillated around the intermediate mode of circulation during HE. Though surface conditions were more stable during the Holocene, the WMDW overturning cell still reacted synchronously to short-lived events, as shown by increments in the planktonic d18O record, triggering quick reinforcements of the deep water circulation. Overall, these results highlight the sensitivity of the WMDW to rapid climate change which in the recent past were likely induced by oceanographic and atmospheric reorganizations in the North Atlantic region.

Sedimentology and mineralogy of surface sediments from the Chilean continental margin

The regional patterns of texture and composition of modern continental slope and pelagic sediments off Chile between 25°S and 43°S reflect the latitudinal segmentation of geological, morphological, and climatic features of the continental hinterland. Grain-size characteristics are controlled by the grain-size of source rocks, the weathering regime, and mode of sediment input (eolian off northern Chile vs fluvial further south). Bulk-mineral assemblages reveal a low grade of maturity. Regional variations are governed by the source-rock composition of the different geological terranes and the relative source-rock contribution of the Coastal Range and Andes, as controlled by the continental hydrology. The relative abundance of clay minerals is also predominantly influenced by the source-rock composition and partly by continental smectite neoformation. Latitudinal variations of illite crystallinities along the Chilean continental slope (and west of the Peru-Chile trench) clearly reflect modifications of the weathering regime which correspond to the strong climatic zonation of Chile.

Age models of northern North Atlantic sediment cores

Benthic foraminiferal stable isotope records from four high-resolution sediment cores, forming a depth transect between 1237 m and 2303 m on the South Iceland Rise, have been used to reconstruct intermediate and deep water paleoceanographic changes in the northern North Atlantic during the last 21 ka (spanning Termination I and the Holocene). Typically, a sampling resolution of ~100 years is attained. Deglacial core chronologies are accurately tied to North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) ice core records through the correlation of tephra layers and changes in the percent abundance of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral) with transitions in NGRIP. The evolution from the glacial mode of circulation to the present regime is punctuated by two periods with low benthic d13C and d18O values, which do not lie on glacial or Holocene water mass mixing lines. These periods correlate with the late Younger Dryas/Early Holocene (11.5-12.2 ka) and Heinrich Stadial 1 (14.7-16.8 ka) during which time freshwater input and sea-ice formation led to brine rejection both locally and as an overflow exported from the Nordic seas into the northern North Atlantic, as earlier reported by Meland et al. (2008). The export of brine with low ?13C values from the Nordic seas complicates traditional interpretations of low d13C values during the deglaciation as incursions of southern sourced water, although the spatial extent of this brine is uncertain. The records also reveal that the onset of the Younger Dryas was accompanied by an abrupt and transient (~200-300 year duration) decrease in the ventilation of the northern North Atlantic. During the Holocene, Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water only reached its modern flow strength and/or depth over the South Iceland Rise by 7-8 ka, in parallel with surface ocean reorganizations and a cessation in deglacial meltwater input to the North Atlantic.

The Choice of Transport Mode: Evidence from Japanese Exports to East Asia

This paper investigates Japanese trade by mode of transport, i.e., air transport versus maritime shipping. Some facts about Japanese machinery exports by mode of transport in the 1990s are examined first. Then it will be shown that products of the machinery sector where international fragmentation prevails are more likely to be exported by air.

Considering cycling for commuting : the role of mode familiarity : an exploration on the (circular) relation between cycling behaviours and attitudes toward cycling in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain

¿La gente utiliza la bicicleta porque les gusta? ¿O es el propio hecho de usarla la razón por la que les gusta hacerlo? ¿O es una combinación de las dos? Este tipo de preguntas reflejan un problema que se puede llamar ‘el círculo de la consideración de la bicicleta’: para poder considerar el uso de la bicicleta en el conjunto de posibles opciones a escoger, un individuo tiene que tener creencias positivas sobre ella, sobre todo en el caso de ‘contextos de bajo uso’. Pero parece poco probable que se formen creencias positivas cuando hay bajos niveles de familiaridad al modo, es decir, con un bajo conocimiento de sus características, su funcionamiento y del imaginario asociado; al mismo tiempo, la familiaridad irá alcanzando niveles más altos conforme aumente el tiempo y la intensidad con la que se utilice la bicicleta a lo largo de la vida de los individuos. El problema parece un circulo recursivo huevo-gallina, ya que es difícil que alguien considere el usar la bicicleta en lugares donde su uso es una práctica poco extendida. En estos lugares, y dentro del conglomerado actual de tecnologías, infraestructuras, reglas, prácticas de los usuarios y preferencias culturales que se han desarrollado alrededor del automóvil (el actual "sistema socio-técnico de la movilidad urbana", Urry 2004; Geels 2005, 2012) usar la bicicleta es considerado por la mayoría como algo difícil, inseguro, y anormal. Como consecuencia, los procesos de aumento de familiaridad con la bicicleta permanecen inactivos. La tesis asume la familiaridad como una fuente de información e influencia sobre las creencias positivas sobre la bicicleta. En ‘contextos de bajo uso’, sin familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta, estas creencias sólo pueden surgir de ciertos rasgos personales (afecto, valores, identidades, voluntad, etc.). Tal como han evidenciado investigaciones recientes, en estos contextos la posibilidad de considerar el uso de la bicicleta (y su eventual adopción), se circunscribe principalmente a los ‘entusiastas’, a los que están dispuestos a “ir contra corriente” (Horton & Parkin 2012), limitando el alcance de las políticas de promoción. La investigación llevada a cabo en esta tesis ofrece un nuevo enfoque al problema del ‘círculo de la consideración de la bicicleta’. Para ello, plantea un modelo en el que se introduce a la familiaridad como un constructo que media entre el comportamiento final –qué modo de transporte elige el individuo– y el conjunto de constructos psicosociales que preceden la elección modal (creencias y actitudes). La familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta se concibe como una medida de la intensidad relativa del uso de una bicicleta, real y percibida (basándose en Diana & Mokhtarian 2009) que puede formarse de manera distinta según sus fines (utilitarios o no utilitarios). El constructo familiaridad con el modo bicicleta está relacionado con la cantidad de tiempo, la intensidad y la regularidad con la que un individuo ha hecho uso de la bicicleta a lo largo de su vida. La familiaridad se concibe así como una condición que permite definir adecuadamente el contexto en el que se toman las decisiones modales de los individuos, en línea con investigaciones que postulan patrones de causalidad alternativos entre los procesos cognitivos de elección y los comportamientos modales (Tardif 1977; Dobson et al. 1978; Golob et al. 1979; Golob 2001; Schwanen et al. 2012; Diana et al. 2009; Vij & Walker 2014). De este modo se plantea que el esquema unidireccional actitudesconductas podría no ser completamente valido en el caso de la consideración de la bicicleta, explorando la hipótesis que sean las propias conductas a influenciar la formación de las actitudes. En esta tesis, el constructo de familiaridad se articula teórica y metodológicamente, y se emplea un instrumento de diseño transversal para contrastarlo. Los resultados de una encuesta telefónica a una muestra representativa de 736 personas en la ciudad española de Vitoria-Gasteiz proveen evidencias que sugieren –aunque de forma preliminar– que la familiaridad juega un papel de mediadora en la relación entre la utilización de la bicicleta y la formación de las creencias y actitudes hacia el su uso. La tesis emplea mediciones para cada individuo con respecto tanto a su consideración como a su familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta. Éstas mediciones se definen haciendo uso del análisis factorial exploratorio (AFE). Por un lado, el AFE arroja una estructura del constructo ‘consideración’ formada por cuatro factores, tres de ellos asociados con elementos positivos y uno con elementos negativos: (1) de cómo el uso de la bicicleta se considera verde e inteligente (G&S); (2) sobre su carácter agradable y adecuado (P&S); (3) sobre su eficacia como modo de transporte para ir al trabajo (E); y (4) sobre los principales inconvenientes de su uso, es decir, las dificultades implícitas (sudoración y estar expuestos a las inclemencias del tiempo) y la sensación de inseguridad que genera (sentirse en riesgo de accidentes y estresarse por el tráfico) (D&T). Por otro lado, la familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta se mide en dos distintas variables ordinales (según se base en el uso utilitario o no utilitario). Como resultado, se puede hablar de que cada individuo se encuentra en una de las siguientes cuatro etapas en orden creciente hacia una familiaridad completa al modo: no familiarizados; apenas familiarizados; moderadamente familiarizados; totalmente familiarizados. El análisis de los datos de los cuatro grupos de sujetos de la muestra, –definidos de acuerdo con cada una de las cuatro etapas de familiaridad definidas– ha evidenciado la existencia de diferencias intergrupo estadísticamente significativas, especialmente para la medida relacionada con el uso utilitario. Asimismo, las personas en los niveles inferiores de familiaridad tienen una consideración menor de los aspectos positivos de la bicicleta y por el contrario presentan preocupaciones mayores hacia las características negativas respecto a aquellas personas que están más familiarizados en el uso utilitario. El uso, aunque esporádico, de una bicicleta para fines utilitarios (ir de compras, hacer recados, etc.), a diferencia de no usarla en absoluto, aparece asociado a unas puntuaciones significativamente más altas en los tres factores positivos (G&S, E, P&S), mientras que parece estar asociado a puntuaciones significativamente más bajas en el factor relacionado con las características negativas (D&U). Aparecen resultados similares cuando se compara un uso moderado, con uno esporádico, sobre todo con respecto a la consideración de las características negativas. Los resultados de esta tesis están en línea con la literatura anterior que se ha basado en variables similares (por ejemplo, de Geus et al. 2008; Stinson & Bhat 2003, 2004; Hunt & Abraham 2006; y van Bekkum et al. 2011a, entre otros), pero en este estudio las diferencias se observan en un contexto de bajo uso y se derivan de un análisis de toda la población de personas que se desplazan a su lugar de trabajo o estudio, lo cual eleva la fiabilidad de los resultados. La posibilidad de que unos niveles más altos de uso de la bicicleta para fines utilitarios puedan llevar a niveles más positivos de su consideración abre el camino a implicaciones teóricas y de políticas que se discuten en la tesis. Con estos resultados se argumenta que el enfoque convencional basado en el cambio de actitudes puede no ser el único y prioritario para lograr cambios a la hora de fomentar el uso de la bicicleta. Los resultados apuntan al potencial de otros esquemas de causalidad, basados en patrones de influencia más descentrados y distribuidos, y que adopten una mirada más positiva hacia los hábitos de transporte, conceptualizándolos como “inteligencia encarnada y pre-reflexiva” (Schwanen et al. 2012). Tales esquemas conducen a un enfoque más práctico para la promoción del uso de la bicicleta, con estrategias que podrían basarse en acciones de ‘degustación’ de su uso o de mayor ‘exposición’ a su uso. Is the fact that people like cycling the reason for them to cycle? Or is the fact that they do cycle the reason for them to like cycling? Or is a combination of the two? This kind of questions reflect a problem that can be called ‘the cycle of cycling consideration’: in order to consider cycling in the set of possible options to be chosen, an individual needs to have positive beliefs about it, especially in the case of ‘low-cycling contexts’. However, positive beliefs seem unlikely to be formed with low levels of mode familiarity, say, with a low acquaintance with mode features, functioning and images; at the same time, higher levels of familiarity are likely to be reached if cycling is practised over relative threshold levels of intensities and extensively across individual life courses. The problem looks like a chicken-egg recursive cycle, since the latter condition is hardly met in places where cycling is little practised. In fact, inside the current conglomerate of technologies, infrastructures, regulations, user practices, cultural preferences that have grown around the automobile (the current “socio-technical system of urban mobility”, Urry 2004; Geels 2005, 2012) cycling is commonly considered as difficult, unsafe, and abnormal. Consequently, the processes of familiarity forming remain disabled, and, as a result, beliefs cannot rely on mode familiarity as a source of information and influence. Without cycling familiarity, origins of positive beliefs are supposed to rely only on personal traits (affect, values, identities, willingness, etc.), which, in low-cycling contexts, confine the possibility of cycling consideration (and eventual adoption) mainly to ‘cycling enthusiasts’ who are willing to “go against the grain” (Horton & Parkin 2012), as it results from previous research. New research conducted by author provides theoretical insights for a different approach of the cycling consideration problem in which the presence of the new construct of cycling familiarity is hypothesised in the relationship between mode choice behaviour and the set of psychosocial constructs that are supposed to precede it (beliefs and attitudes). Cycling familiarity is conceived as a measure of the real and the perceived relative intensity of use of a bicycle (building upon Diana & Mokhtarian 2009) which may be differently formed for utilitarian or non-utilitarian purposes. The construct is assumed to be related to the amount of time, the intensity and the regularity an individual spends in using a bicycle for the two distinct categories of purposes, gaining in this way a certain level of acquaintance with the mode. Familiarity with a mode of transport is conceived as an enabling condition to properly define the decision-making context in which individual travel mode choices are taken, in line with rather disperse research efforts postulating inverse relationships between mode behaviours and mode choices (Tardiff 1977; Dobson et al. 1978; Golob et al. 1979; Golob 2001; Schwanen et al. 2012; Diana et al. 2009; Vij & Walker 2014). The new construct is built theoretically and methodologically, and a cross-sectional design instrument is employed. Results from a telephone survey in a representative sample of 736 commuters in the Spanish city of Vitoria-Gasteiz, provide suggestive –although preliminary– evidence on the role of mode familiarity as a mediator in the relationship between cycling use and the formation of beliefs and attitudes toward cycling. Measures of both cycling consideration and cycling familiarity are defined making use of exploratory factor analysis. On the one hand, four distinct cycling consideration measures are created, based on attitude expressions on four underlying factors relating to the cycling commuting behaviour: on how cycling commuting is considered green and smart (G&S); on its pleasant and suited character (P&S); on its efficiency as a mode of transport for commuting (E); and on the main drawbacks of its use, namely the difficulties implied (sweating and being exposed to adverse weather conditions) and the sense of unsafety it generates (feeling at risk of accidents and getting stressed by traffic) (D&U). On the other hand, dimensions of cycling familiarity are measured on two distinct ordinal variables (whether based on the utilitarian or non-utilitarian use) comprising four stages to a complete mode familiarity: not familiar; barely familiar; moderately familiar; fully familiar. For each of the four stages of cycling familiarity defined, statistical significant differences are found, especially for the measure related to the utilitarian use. Consistently, people at the lower levels of cycling familiarity have a lower consideration of the positive aspects of cycling and conversely they exhibit higher concerns towards the negative characteristics than those individuals that are more familiar in utilitarian cycling. Using a bicycle occasionally for practical purposes, as opposed to not using it at all, seems associated to significant higher scores in the three positive factors (G&S, E, P&S) while it appears to be associated to significant lower scores in the factor relating with the negative characteristics of cycling commuting (D&U). A same pattern also occurs with a moderate use, as opposed to an occasional one, especially for the consideration of the negative characteristics. The results are in line with previous literature based on similar variables (e.g. de Geus et al. 2008; Stinson & Bhat 2003, 2004; Hunt & Abraham 2006; and van Bekkum et al. 2011a, among others), but in this study the differences are observed in a low-cycling context and derive from an analysis of the entire population of commuters, which rises the reliability of results.

Sea surface temperature and stable isotopes from 9 cores of the Northeastern Atlantic

Temporal and spatial patterns in eastern North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SST) were reconstructed for marine isotope stage (MIS) 11c using a submeridional transect of five sediment cores. The SST reconstructions are based on planktic foraminiferal abundances and alkenone indices, and are supported by benthic and planktic stable isotope measurements, as well as by ice-rafted debris content in polar and middle latitudes. Additionally, the larger-scale dynamics of the precipitation regime over northern Africa and the western Mediterranean region was evaluated from iron concentrations in marine sediments off NW Africa and planktic d13C in combination with analysis of planktic foraminiferal abundances down to the species level in the Mediterranean Sea. Compared to the modern situation, it is revealed that during entire MIS 11c sensu stricto (ss), i.e., between 420 and 398 ka according to our age models, a cold SST anomaly in the Nordic seas co-existed with a warm SST anomaly in the middle latitudes and the subtropics, resulting in steeper meridional SST gradients than during the Holocene. Such a SST pattern correlates well with a prevalence of a negative mode of the modern North Atlantic Oscillation. We suggest that our scenario might partly explain the longer duration of wet conditions in the northern Africa during MIS 11c compared to the Holocene.

Carranza and his bolshevik regime,

Spanish edition has title: Al margen de la constitución de 1917.

Monographie du regime hydraulique de la seine maritmie [!].

At head of title: Exposition universelle de 1889, Congrès international des travaux maritimes.

The works of Francis Parkman.

Each front accompanied by guard sheet with descriptive letterpress.

A plan of police : exhibiting the causes of the present increase of the poor and proposing a mode for their future more effectual relief and support.

Published anonymously. By Thomas Gilbert. Cf. BM, vol. 85, col. 926.

Mémoire raisonné des remedes et du regime a pratiquer dans la maladie qui afflige la ville de Mamers [et] les paroisses circonvoisines /

Mode of access: Internet.